Eight Iron, these shoes are 120-150 hands? Thanks.

This is my best analogy for what all those that believe house edge rules for everyone at all times:

The historical average price of all US stocks ever traded is $10.09.  Therefore if you want to trade stock profitably, you should never open or close buy any stock above $10.09 and you should never open or close sell a stock below $10.09.

Makes sense!

I believe I already know the answer, but someone contact the UNLV Center for Gaming Research or other group, look at the financials, etc. of what gaming companies are willing to disclose and determine 'how closely does their P&L track house edge'?  Me thinks it varies so there are other factors at play.

3+++ units per shoe?

Update - I don't believe that there are killer or wild card shoes that are so much more difficult down the road so I don't view that large sample sizes are required. I play a ridiculously low number of shoes for various time constraint reasons.

There are far too many options in bet selection and bet amount.   For example, a play with confidence can be one unit (well above table minimum) and one could still play 'more uncertain' situations with less than one unit.

Back to the issue of outside of all of that, most players are playing a very low number of hands vs. laws of large numbers...

- Congrats also!
- Marina Bay looks SWANK.
- Started watching the derived roads recently and would like to start considering it.

- I am trying to add another aspect to my approach to increase edge, but so far inconclusive.  It is signaling for more activity, but I want to understand it's performance better.  The plus is that it gets me in there more.  I would bet every hand if the extra bets have a decent expected result.

We are all after that.  In the mean time, how about going to a casino where there are a lot of players, a lot of big players, AND skilled players and watching?  I would strongly prefer to have the time to do that.

UNLV Center for Gaming Research
Macau Gaming Summary

Baccarat still dominates in Macau - it's for a reason.

One thing I noticed is that sometimes a shoe will revert to a balance between Banker and Player or be balanced throughout, but often there are shoes that are heavily biased one way or another.  It doesn't seem like a shoe should do that so frequently.

Quote from: Garfield on December 16, 2015, 05:49:43 AM
I played around 7 - 8 shoes average. Yes it also depend on this circumstances :

1. Whether I have reached my target goal or not.
2. Whether my buy-in BR for that session was busted.
3. Whether I am exhausted or not.

For point no 3, IMHO there is no way we could match the casino. Because they work in shift.

And there you have it which seems to be completely lost on those looking at gaming mathematics.  I play a ridiculously low number of shoes in comparison so let's say we play exactly the same bets.... do you think we each would look at our session differently given the difference in duration of play? YES

The shoes and hands don't change, but two players making the same bets along the way can have a very different experience for a number of reasons.  In my view, all of these can be big drivers of performance.

UPDATE:  This is getting off topic. More later.  I think the fact that you can see many shoes in progress and decide when and where to play are also important to consider so you can get into strong short term characteristics of a shoe.

I'm asking everyone - how many shoes they play in a typical session at a real casino?  I bet the number is very low.  I also bet that many are using a P&L driven stop point, a time driven stop point, an energy driven stop point, or a combination that has no correlation to game house edge or statistics.

Math and statistic pros will give you their view all day long just like the economists and financial analysts that can't explain the thousands of occurrences of all sorts that should never happen in the markets.  Advantage players have a similar view.

For example, the odds of 13 Bankers in a row are:

(0.458597)^13 = 0.00003968311 =>>> 1/ 0.00003968311 = 1 in 25,199.

I am not going to disclose what XX of what side in a row I have seen, but I have seen well over that.  I have also seen many other serious XX in a row and streaks of other kinds in under a few months.  In such a short amount of time with how little casino time I have I should not have seen what I have seen statistically.  As a result, I believe there is non-random variance in the game.

How many shoes do you play in an outing?  VARIANCE and non-random.

I don't believe baccarat is a random game no matter what the house edge math states.  Each shoe and progressions within a shoe has bias as the shuffling techniques do not result in a random number generated progression.

You should try to play simulated/ no money with or without software to develop an approach.  There are some sources for free shoes like Wizard of Odds and software mentioned here.  Although nothing beats live play, it's free or a low price to pay and you can cover a lot of ground quickly.

Right now I am working with a shoe stop loss.  Some shoes may just be too difficult.

Quote from: the7joker7 on December 04, 2015, 08:12:54 PM
I got my hands on the BAT PDF a few days ago and read through it. It was exciting, but I wouldn't bet a dime on it without stress testing it myself.

This may lead nowhere, but if you can assess where the system is failing and combine it with your own knowledge, you may build a 2.0 that's worth playing with.  Some systems are such stuff that you are essentially better off starting with your own knowledge only.

Why is a system that needs that much progression 'to work' even worth considering?  Anyone with some skill in the game should be able to play without that risk/ leverage and those with money should seek out a source to get them skill if they can't develop it themselves.

Baccarat Attack Strategy in live casino play....

The start of this thread had many commenting that they thought this strategy looked promising, and the trail end of the thread concluded it may be worthwhile with a lot of capital or for play at on-line casinos where the minimum bet sizes may be very low.


Any updates?  Thanks.