Here is an old axion....".There are liars, damned liars, and statistics"

P.S.  I think if we do not have a therapeutic in the next 2 - 3 months, which reduces the virus to a vey bad 2 week case of the flu, ( forget a vaccine, that's a year away unless a miracle occurs ) then we all may be toast...police, firemen, truck drivers delivering food, people stocking the shelves in grocery stores, drivers and workers  for Amazon and other online delivery companies, meat and chicken processing plants   etc etc etc will all eventually become infected...and that's when the survival/ mob mentality will take over and don't expect to see any food in your local grocery store....hope it doesn't happen.

Also be careful of any offers any casino will use to try to get you into a casino....they will do anything to get you in ...caveat emptor.

If you do play poker, I hope its only a few hours a week as a recreational player. Making a "living" playing poker now is basically very difficult if not impossible. There are too many poker courses, books, mentors etc etc available which has made most players play at the same skill level.

Also at higher stakes, you may get cheated by others at the table by other players  playing as colluding partners ......and playing online is the same problem......all kinds of cheating going on.

Same goes for blackjack......6-5 paid on a 21 instead of 3-2...?.   getting banned when you raise your bets etc etc ?.just a waste of time and money.

Here is one reason it may be too early to open the economy without extensive, accurate and rapid  testing:

https://news.yahoo.com/hundreds-sailors-carrier-roosevelt-covid-153906401.html

Does anybody still feel  like going into a casino with thousands of people in close proximity and then  sitting shoulder to shoulder with 5 other people at a baccarat table and high fiving when everybody wins a hand ?

Donny became a millionaire by selling baccarat systems to seriously mentally impaired individuals.

This guy gets a little emotional in the interview, but I think he is probably right ......unless a miracle happens and the virus dies out by itself or dies out when the weather gets warmer .........which does not seem likely.........

Interview from CNBC, a major  business channel.

Click on the yellow arrow in the upper right hand corner of the video.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html

Flu deaths in the United States  ( not corona...just the regular flu )

2011   34,000
2012   61,000
2013   38,000
2014   23,000
2015   51,000
2016   38,000
2017   48,000
2018   12,000
2019   37,000
2020    So far about 20,000 as of 3/17/2020  but will go up  since 6 more weeks left  in flu season


Current United States deaths from  Corona  3/17/2020   only 93   but will increase a lot more as testing increases 

Watch closely if  Corona spreads to India Pakistan and  Africa since they have poor medical facilities and very  high populations  and Corona may explode there.

Best case for corona is it decreases when it gets warm .....but don't hold your breath.

If you think you have money  problems, look at these 2 casinos about to open in vegas within the next 9 to 12 months

https://www.rgj.com/story/news/2019/11/22/4-3-billion-resorts-world-las-vegas-open-summer-2021/4271941002/


https://www.circalasvegas.com/

Better hope Corona is gone by the  time they open.

Mohegan Sun and Foxwoods casinos closed for 2 weeks in Connecticut. About 11,ooo employees put of work in both casinos.

All casinos in Massachusetts are closed ......not sure for how long

How to win at roulette, baccarat, sports betting etc etc ( negative expectation games )

1. You will always lose more bets than you will win. Sorry about that.

2. You have to win more on your winning bets than you lose on your losing bets to show a profit.

3. Set a maximum, conservative unit loss per bac shoe or pre-determined number of roulette spins or pre-determined number of sports bets and set a planned unit profit per bac shoe or   pre-determined number of roulette spins or pre-determined number of sports bets ......such as 30 roulette spins or 30 sports bets

For example, assume you will lose a max of 8 units a baccarat shoe or               
pre-determined number of roulette spins or pre-determined sports bets.....then assume a worst case of losing 4 of those shoes or predetermined number of roulette spins or pre-determined sports bets in a row so that you lose 32 units ( 8 units x 4 =32 ) A losing run of 4 sequences in a row will eventually happen ...sorry about that.

You can use 5 instead of 4 to be really conservative. Also those losing sequences do not have to be in a row, they can also be  a net loss of 4 or 5 sequences over a large number or sequences such as WLLWWWLLLLLWLLL  = net loss of 5 sequences.=loss of 40 units ( 5 sequences  x 8 unit lost per sequence =40 units lost )

Now assume your profit objective  is 4 units a baccarat shoe or over a               
pre-determined number of bac shoes or pre-determined roulette spins or             
pe-determined sports bets.

Then raise your bet size to 2 units which will give you an 8 unit profit and in 4 bac shoes or 4 pre-determined sequences of spins or 4 pre-determined sequences of sports bets an you should be even ( 8 x 4 units = 32 units)

You lost 32 bets and won 16 bets so you only won 16/48 bets = 33 % of your bets but you broke even by winning more on your winning bets than you lost on your losing bets.

However, over a long series of bac shoes or roulette spins  or sport bets where it takes a long time to break even, the 33% number will increase to more than 33%   
( in my example, you won the next 4 sequences in a row...which rarely happens.......)

For example, a sequence WLLLWWLLWLLWLL  gives you a net loss of 4 sequences and lose 32 units ..then raise your bets to 2 units a bet and then you get a sequence of LLWWWLLWWWLWWW so you get a net win of 4 sequences at 8 units a bet so you won 4 x 8 =32 units and you broke even

You have to set a pre-determined number of roulette spins or sports bets since there is no "shoe" in roulette or sports betting since the number of roulette spins and sports bet go on towards infinity.

In baccarat a sequence is the same as a shoe.

As has been mentioned many times before.....about 87% of all patterns do not go below 3 and stop before you get 4 in a row.....that's why bac is difficult to beat.....because when the results are above 4 in a row, you don't know if you will get a chop  BPBPPBP etc  or a double BBPPBBPP etc or a 1-3 BPPPBPPP etc
or 3 in a row BBBPPP etc  or a 1-2  BPPBPPBPP etc   or just junk like PPBPPPPBBPBPPBBBPP  etc

Are these numbers for the single 0  or double 00 wheel?

As has been said many times before, anyone can beat roulette, baccarat or Sic Bo or blackjack or craps in the long run........you just need a very large bankroll and a very conservative money management plan to handle the eventual large downswings in you bankroll.

As a simple example, assume the most you will lose flat betting in a shoe is 8 units, and your profit objective for a shoe is 5 units, then you can use a money management plan  of:

11111111 11111111 11111111 11111111 11111111 (  you lose all 40 bets )

22222 22222 22222 22222 ( you win all 20 bets  )

You lost 40 units ( in 5 shoes or a net loss of 40 units over many shoes flat betting 1 unit a bet)  so then bet  2 units a bet . winning 10 units a shoe over 4 shoes = 40 units so now you are even ) less banker commission)

You lost 40 bets and won 20 bets so you won 20/60 bets so you broke even only winning 33 % of your bets.

This is of course a very simple example, but you get the general idea.

Of course if you bet using  an aggressive negative progression , then you need a very,  very, very large bankroll to handle the very, very, very  large down swings.

Do you have an app for a double zero wheel?

Also I think I know how you can use this in an American casino which has the "Stadium - Fusion"
roulette, baccarat and blackjack games which use a live dealer and you enter your bets using a computer terminal.

If you need more info, let me know.

Do you think this can be applied to the Player and Banker decisions in Baccarat?

  Thanx for the update.  Below is an old post of yours ....could you give and example of how you determined the W or L for 2nd's and 3rd's......seems like all the numbers were black.


"would like to share the idea of 2nd's + 3rd's here.

There is an Excel sheet at the bottom with an example using Black/Red and Low/High.

I will use the Black numbers in the sheet to give an example....

What I am tracking for is to see if a Black number goes to 2 hits and then goes on to 3 hits.

33
26
26
31
33
8

There are 6 consecutive black numbers there and so I put a W for both the 2nd's and the 3rd's.

The next black numbers....

29
13

Now there are only 2 black numbers there. So I put a W in the 2nd's and an L in the 3rd's.

Next up...

8

Only 1 black number there. So an L goes in the 2nd's and I can't put anything in the 3rd's.

Next up...

29
24

2 black numbers. So a W in the 2nd's and an L in the 3rd's.

What I am playing close attention at is the W's and L's in the 2nd's + 3rd's.

It's possible to get a run of L's in the 2nd's.....BUT.....a run of W's in the 3rd's. This would happen if you got runs of just either 1 black and runs of 3+ blacks.

Charting all three E.C's (Black/Red, Low/High, Odd/Even) is the way to go.

A tracker would do the job OR you could just skip a spin or two in a B+M casino to give you time to track everything.

Of course....you could track 2nd's, 3rd's + 4th's and even use this idea for dozens and columns.

It is just another way to look for betting the W's OR L's depending on what's happening in the 2nd's and 3rd's."

cheers.