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Messages - BEAT-THE-WHEEL

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61
Hi Lugi,
With respect,

Its 1u for 100spins, 2u for next 100spins and 4u for next 100spins.
Thanks, sorry for the misunderstanding.

62
[quote author=Lugi link=topic=9954.msg64468#msg64468 date=1534111629


aiming for a 45~50% strike rate in the short term, than all you would have to do is wrap a mild negative progression around whatever it is, much more realistic
[/quote]
100% agreed!
(This what I trying to say for so long,  but my poor english...sigh)

63
Gentlement,
My 1cent,

In next shoe, no matter how many quadzillion, sisilion, or gigglelion of permutation, one thing is sure,

B >  P,  or
P < B....
P=B.....highly impossible.

Now, if only , we have a method that always produce near 50% win/lose ratio.....( if ...only...).

If you could think out a strategy that hit, that ALWAYS HIT WITHIN NEGATIVE MATH EXPECTATION....in 100 to 300 hands/spins,
A simple 1....2....4  progression, will always win...


@NICKMSI,
If the vdw, even if the not produce edge, BUT negative1 to 3 % HE, then, it a breeze!

64
Gizmotron / Re: How to guess in any Even Chance game
« on: August 11, 2018, 02:45:59 am »
That selection, dd, a quite stable bet in long run, because, it not static, 66% minus HE, and always jumping around,  and mathboys can't dispute,
It always try to rtm, and with long variance occurance,  which the chart line move southeast in a  wave, thus 300 will result in 10+- losses, and 10000, 300+- losses flatbet...


We will see very long hits, an d long line of losses streaks, which  I believe this what GIZTMOTRON   found long ago...

The programmer savvy please do a few long testing chart, and we may see, since I a dummy here.
Thanks.

65
Gizmotron / Re: How to guess in any Even Chance game
« on: August 11, 2018, 02:36:35 am »
Gentlemen, my 1cent,

In double dozens bet,
Bet last dozen and next dz to the right,
Eg,
Last =dz1, then bet dz1&2,
Last =dz2, bet dz2&3,
Last =dz 3, brt dz3&1, zero disregard, and unfortunate losses...


When you make a long history bet as a long 300spins, you will see long sequence of streaks,
The double hit will be as long as 20 to 30 hit continuos hit, or 30spin  with only few losses in between,
We can't predict, but we can see after long streaks of dd hit, then , the other side will hit too, thus after 300 ispins, the flatbet result, mostly always within math HE EXPECTATION. ...Try it, you may like it...

66
Gentlemen,
The best we can , is to devise a method that always hit math expectation within HE, which the mathboys can't dispute,
But then, again, they will say, in short run, we might hit long expected Extreme Varinace....

Thus imho,
Have a selection that very STABLE, (in medium run), say, 100 to 200 placed bet, or 100+ group of sequence attack,
Expect the occurance of long variance, avoid the long variance,  and mild progression, and cut loss strategy..

An EDGE is possible, but need 10000 placed bet, which just impossible in BM...

If and when we have confidence and faith, that our selection very stable, albeit with long sequence of variance, then its not difficult to win.

In fact, long variance in stable selection, is a blessing,  when we simply outwait them, ....

67
Thus, for example, if we choose to bet, f2ndlast, for only 6 permutation, hand,
 the loser will be,
XXOOXX, AND OOXXOO

two probability out of ....64, without consideration for 6pay half, or commissions.
Any ideas for mm?

68
Permutations with repetition (n=2, r=6)
Using Items: X,o

List has 64 entries.
{X,X,X,X,X,X} {X,X,X,X,X,o} {X,X,X,X,o,X} {X,X,X,X,o,o} {X,X,X,o,X,X} {X,X,X,o,X,o} {X,X,X,o,o,X} {X,X,X,o,o,o} {X,X,o,X,X,X} {X,X,o,X,X,o} {X,X,o,X,o,X} {X,X,o,X,o,o} {X,X,o,o,X,X} {X,X,o,o,X,o} {X,X,o,o,o,X} {X,X,o,o,o,o} {X,o,X,X,X,X} {X,o,X,X,X,o} {X,o,X,X,o,X} {X,o,X,X,o,o} {X,o,X,o,X,X} {X,o,X,o,X,o} {X,o,X,o,o,X} {X,o,X,o,o,o} {X,o,o,X,X,X} {X,o,o,X,X,o} {X,o,o,X,o,X} {X,o,o,X,o,o} {X,o,o,o,X,X} {X,o,o,o,X,o} {X,o,o,o,o,X} {X,o,o,o,o,o} {o,X,X,X,X,X} {o,X,X,X,X,o} {o,X,X,X,o,X} {o,X,X,X,o,o} {o,X,X,o,X,X} {o,X,X,o,X,o} {o,X,X,o,o,X} {o,X,X,o,o,o} {o,X,o,X,X,X} {o,X,o,X,X,o} {o,X,o,X,o,X} {o,X,o,X,o,o} {o,X,o,o,X,X} {o,X,o,o,X,o} {o,X,o,o,o,X} {o,X,o,o,o,o} {o,o,X,X,X,X} {o,o,X,X,X,o} {o,o,X,X,o,X} {o,o,X,X,o,o} {o,o,X,o,X,X} {o,o,X,o,X,o} {o,o,X,o,o,X} {o,o,X,o,o,o} {o,o,o,X,X,X} {o,o,o,X,X,o} {o,o,o,X,o,X} {o,o,o,X,o,o} {o,o,o,o,X,X} {o,o,o,o,X,o} {o,o,o,o,o,X} {o,o,o,o,o,o}

69
Permutations with repetition (n=2, r=5)
Using Items: X,o

List has 32 entries.
{X,X,X,X,X} {X,X,X,X,o} {X,X,X,o,X} {X,X,X,o,o} {X,X,o,X,X} {X,X,o,X,o} {X,X,o,o,X} {X,X,o,o,o} {X,o,X,X,X} {X,o,X,X,o} {X,o,X,o,X} {X,o,X,o,o} {X,o,o,X,X} {X,o,o,X,o} {X,o,o,o,X} {X,o,o,o,o} {o,X,X,X,X} {o,X,X,X,o} {o,X,X,o,X} {o,X,X,o,o} {o,X,o,X,X} {o,X,o,X,o} {o,X,o,o,X} {o,X,o,o,o} {o,o,X,X,X} {o,o,X,X,o} {o,o,X,o,X} {o,o,X,o,o} {o,o,o,X,X} {o,o,o,X,o} {o,o,o,o,X} {o,o,o,o,o}

70
Permutations with repetition (n=2, r=4)
Using Items: X,o

List has 16 entries.
{X,X,X,X} {X,X,X,o} {X,X,o,X} {X,X,o,o} {X,o,X,X} {X,o,X,o} {X,o,o,X} {X,o,o,o} {o,X,X,X} {o,X,X,o} {o,X,o,X} {o,X,o,o} {o,o,X,X} {o,o,X,o} {o,o,o,X} {o,o,o,o}

71
General Discussion / Re: Vdw martingale miscalculation?
« on: August 06, 2018, 03:25:55 pm »
Forget the marthy....it's a miscalculation!

But , ,....

The first vdw 256hit,  and...., lose 256
Thus it like betting 256black vs 256red balls in a bag....

Where u take out a ball and cast aside....

If it truly 256win  vs 256lose...
Then it's a ....grail?


Hope so....
Any ideas?

72
General Discussion / Re: Vdw martingale miscalculation?
« on: August 06, 2018, 12:49:13 pm »
Mathwise, as Nickmsi said, it must surely hit as 1 plus 1 equal 2,

Thus assume that  no commision HE,
we bet 9hands for 512, then the marthy will surely win.

Any ideas?

73
General Discussion / Re: Vdw martingale miscalculation?
« on: August 06, 2018, 12:45:00 pm »
512 times 9=4608 hands.

What if we bet with grand marthy?



W 256 times....1u
L 48 times
LW 104 times 13 =6-4=2
LL 32 times
LLW 36 times 137=14-11=3
LLL 16 times
LLLW 10 times 137, 15=30-26=4
LLLL 10 times  137, 15, 31=-57 times 10=-570u

74
General Discussion / Vdw martingale miscalculation?
« on: August 06, 2018, 12:35:30 pm »
Without 0(yes even if there is no house edge), just consider only R and B as an example. There are 512 combinations of 9 spin sets possible. Out of this 512 combinations, 406 combinations will give you a win and the rest will give you a loss. Sure a high win ratio inching towards 80%. But, the risk of losses will outweigh the impact of wins. See the following possibilities out of 512 combinations.

W 256 times
L 48 times
LW 104 times
LL 32 times
LLW 36 times
LLL 16 times
LLLW 10 times
LLLL 10 times
(Quote from Priyanka's)

============
If we bet vdw with martingale, assumed that it will happen as Nickmsi said it must (?).



W 256 times(win256u)
L 48 times
LW 104 times(win 104u)
LL 32 times
LLW 36 times(win36u)
LLL 16 times
LLLW 10 times((win10u)
LLLL 10 times(LOSE 1248=1510=-150UNITS!)

========================
OR we bet marty, after a first virtual lose...




W 256 times(no bet)
L 48 times(no bet)
LW 104 times....win 104u
LL 32 times
LLW 36 times...win36u
LLL 16 times
LLLW 10 times...win 10u
LLLL 10 times....Lose 124=710=-70units.

Xxxxxxxxxxx
Or after 2 losses.




W 256 times
L 48 times
LW 104 times
LL 32 times  no bet
LLW 36 times...win 36u
LLL 16 times
LLLW 10 times...win 10u
LLLL 10 times....lose 12=310=-30unit.

The above are correct IF ALL 512X9 HIT AS IT SOULD AS CLAIMED!
WITHOUT HE ZERO, OR COMMISSION THROWN IN....

75
Hi Lugi,
With respect,
Since English not my 1st language,  and I try very hard what you try to teach.
You say, your only nemesis is streak5, and streak1, 2, 3, 4, 6= win,
How and why only streak5= loser? How you win with the others?

You may email me  weirdenglishwriter@gmail.com
Thanks in advance

?..............
Gentlemen,
In a shoe, next 70+ hand,
Say,
Bpbpbpbpbp also a streak,
bp=streak2
bpb=3
bpbp=4
bpbpb=5...
and so on

Thus streaks of, 12345...of same or chops, MUST HAPPEND,
and very obvious in every shoe..

Star System take advantage of streak2, the only debacle, as I see it, imho,
it bet every hand, thus succumb to the extreme variance,  and if it could outwait certain degree of long extreme, then it will hit better rate itlr.

Streak3 also must happen, we could take advantage by utilising ftl, or dbl, whether betting same or chops.
When streak3 hit, we win 2 in row, thus parlay the bet...
Say, in next shoe, of eg.75+ hand, we need 75units chip, If we, bet every hand, then if streak3 never hit, we lose all 75u,
If streak3 hit, then win1, parlay the winning plus 1=3, =6u minus2=4u ...


If we only bet, 1 side, say , only bet Player, risked 75units.
Any 2in row of p=6u, 756=12.5

We may bet only 2in row, stop, wait for banker hit, the resume to bet p.
Or keep betting p, hoping for streak4, 6, 8, 10, 12   .......

Streak4=win twice,
Streak6=win thrice
Streak8=win 4.....
And so on.

Or betting both p and b, when they hit first,  hoping for streak 3+
Say, now bbb....wait for p to hit,
Now p hit, bet for it to streak3....

Any ideas?

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