Hi Bally, thanks for your input.

I too like the double streams as it gives you twice as many bets. 

Nick

Hi Mike,

You are right, the variance caused by random does not change no matter what, but I was referring to the fluctuation (variance) of your results.

Is there any difference between a bet selection based on a single independent spin or one based on a Group of Spins?  If so, what are the differences? Can they be exploited to our advantage, maybe even gain the "EDGE" that Mike and Xander often referred to.  I intend to explore this in more detail in a new thread "Use Math to Beat Roulette/Baccarat-Part 2".

But for now, let's see if we can give Beat The Wheel something to think about in his search to find something more stable. 

Let's compare the single spin bet selection of FTL (Follow The Last) to the Group of 2 spins "RB".  Remember, RB is a fixed bet, it does not change.  It does not rely on random for its bet selection.

Playing Single Spin FTL you will have:

RRRRRRRRRR Long Win Streak on Red (you win 10 units)
BBBBBBBBBB Long Win Streak on Black (you win 10 units)
RBRBRBRBRB Long Loss Streak on Chops (you lose 10 units)
BRBRBRBRBR Long Loss Streak on Chops (you lose 10 units)

Playing Group of 2 Spins RB

RRRRRRRRRR Break Even Streak on Red (you win 0 units)
BBBBBBBBBB Break Even Streak on Black (you win 0 units)
RBRBRBRBRB Long Win Steak on chops (you win 10 units)
BRBRBRBRBR Long Loss Streak on chops (you lose 10 units)

Do you see the difference?  FTL has 4 Long Streaks and Group of 2 Spins RB has only 2 Long Streaks and 2 break even streaks, hence the fluctuations (swings in your bankroll) will be less and you are more likely to get a more Stable Bet Result.

This is not a system, nor strategy and there may be other bet selections that do the same but this is a difference that might indicate there is something more to this Group of Spins theory or perhaps Nick is full of it again.  Time will tell.

Hello Beat The Wheel . . . .

In my opinion, you cannot get a "Stable Bet" by playing the Casino's Game of Independent Spins.  Each spin has same chance of 1/37 of a number hitting, 50% for Red/Black (without Zero), etc.

By playing FTL, OTL, DBL etc you are playing the Casino's Game.  You are only hoping that random will  follow FTL or OTL etc.  You have no control.

Take control.  Don't chase random, let random chase you.

Don't think in terms of individual spins, think Group of Spins. The VDW is a Group of 9 Spins.

Here's an example of a Group of 2 Spins:

RB

That's it. RBRBRBRBRB etc.  It is a fixed bet.  You bet Red the first spin, Black the second spin, Red the third spin, Black the fourth spin, etc.

You will roughly win 50% of the Red Streaks, 50% of the Black Streaks, you will win RB streaks and lose BR streaks.  No hoping, no guessing.  No matter the variance, the results should be the same.  Is this a more Stable Bet?

Thanks Alrelax,

I am currently working on Part 2 of using Math to beat Roulette/Baccarat but have been recently sidelined by cataract surgery.  Hopefully I will be able to post soon.

Cheers

Nick

Gizmotron & Alrelax,

You both have valid points.  We can't predict the next outcome and we should pounce on the streaks when they happen.

I would like to offer another point of view to be considered.

I cannot predict the next spin will be a Red or Black, or the next hand will be Banker or Player.  I don't think anyone can predict what the next spin/hand will be.

Therefore, I don't deal in single spin bet selections, they don't work so I use Group of Spins.

When you play B & M roulette or baccarat, a usual 8-10 hour session provides 200-500 spins or hands. When my bot plays on line the usual 8-10 hour session is 2,000 -3000 spins/hands.

This is one use of a Group of Spins.  During a normal session I get to see many more streaks, many longer streaks and many more opportunities to use my bet selection.  I am more likely to hit my targets during one session than most B & M players would hit in 2 weeks.

Another use for Group of Spins is in bet selection.  A 9 spin group can use the VDW as a base for the bet selection.  This proven Math theorem basically says that in 9 spins either a Red or Black will form an AP (Arithmetic Progression).

Does it win all the time in 9 spins?  No, of course not. I cannot predict at which spin the AP will be formed, it could be anywhere from the 3rd spin to the 9th.  But I can say, it will usually win most of the time at some point.

A bet selection based on VDW rides every streak automatically.  You never have to worry about when to start or stop.

Using a solid, mechanical Math and Statistical bet selection reduces the chance for error.

Do we win all the time, No, but we are more likely to win.

Cheers
Nick

Gizmotron:
"For every sequence that triggers a decision you will get a balance of opposing triggers that will equivocate to more balance."

You are correct. With the basic VDW theorem you will eventually get balance which is what Bally6345 confirmed.

The point is don't use the basic VDW theorem.  If one digs deep enough, if one wades through the 256 different patterns that can be formed by one side, if one calculates the statistics for the different AP, then one might have another opinion, one supported by empirical data, that does indeed, as Ramsey pointed out, show order in chaos.

Alrelax:
"Mark, Would you not agree that there are two separate worlds?  The on-line adventure to 'beat-the-casino- on paper and the real gambling world at the casinos?"

I certainly don't agree with your demeaning assessment.  Both are gambling. Both take your money.

Granted you have a ton of experience with B & M gambling so I would suggest those who play in B & M casino would be wise to listen to your advice.

Most of my experience has been On Line and as such it offers many different perspectives that cannot be achieved in the B & M casino.

Cheers
Nick

Hi BW, I am happy to explain 2 Spin Bet Selection further.

Basically what 2 spin bet selection can do is:

1.   Allows more streaks to be bet on
2.   Allows more precise entry point to start betting
3.   Allows longer streaks to be bet on

A SINGLE SPIN (or hand for baccarat fans) produces 2 results:

R
B

1.   You only have 2 streaks to bet on, either R or B.
2.   The biggest problem with single spin is that you don't know when to enter the     streak?  Does a streak of Red start with the first R, the second or third?
3.   The streaks usually last about 10-15 bets.

A 2 SPIN bet selection produces 4 results:

RR
BB
RB
BR

1.   You now have 4 Streaks to bet on.
2.   You start betting against the longest sleeping couplet.
3.   Streaks last for about 20-30 bets.

The easiest way to see what a 2 spin bet selection can do is to play around with the attached Excel sheet.  This sheet tracks the sleeping couplets and shows you what to bet on.

It also shows a graph of each 1,000 spins so you can see how stable a flat betting EC can be. Simply press F9 to see another 1,000 spin RNG result.

This is not a holy grail but it is one way to handle Random and Streaks.

Enjoy
Nick

Here's another suggestion to get not only more streaks but ones that last longer and to better know when to start and stop betting.

Track the last 2 spins instead of the last spin.  Tracking the last 2 spins give you the following couplets:

RR
BB
RB
BR

Now you have 4 possible couplets that can streak.

The limit for a single Red or Black to streak is about 23-25 spins.  The limit for a couplet to streak is twice that.

You start betting the streak when one of the couplets is sleeping and you stop betting when it wakes up.

Cheers

Nick

Hello, yes the number of bets was less than 10,000 because the excel sheet was not 10,000 lines long, that would be a really long sheet.

The bot requires a "seed" spin (free spin) in order to get started and the excel sheet was
only about 30 lines long so every 30 bets would require a "free spin" which is not a bet.

Cheers

Nick

Attached is graph v 1.0 results of trying to catch the streaks.  The results are pretty much the same as the prior test and that is as it should be.

When a bet selection is based on the last spin then your result will be the same as each spin is independent and nothing changes from spin to spin.

It is like drawing a ball from a bag of 36 balls.(18 Red and 18 Black).  Your chance of drawing a Red is 50%.  Put the ball back and bag and draw again.  The result is still 50% chance of drawing a Red ball.  That's why systems based on the last spin result will never win in the long run.

Now if you draw 2 balls at one time, what happens?  You increase the chance of getting a Red from 50% to 75%.  If you draw 3 balls at one time your chances of getting a Red increase to 87.5%. Plus there is so much more you can do with multiple spins being used for bet selection.

Cheers

Nick

Hello BA

I have tested many systems like this and they all failed.

Attached is a graph of this system using 10,000 Weisben Live BM spins.

I also attached the Excel Sheet used so you can be sure that I coded the system correctly, just enter any number in Column A, starting with Cell A5  and the bet selection will show up.

This is a system based on the previous single spin which means each spin is independent and as such you will always get the same probability and results.

Try basing you selections not on single but multiple spins.

Cheers

Nick

Blue Angel is right.  We don't know when the streaks will start or stop, we don't know when the chops will start or stop.

Each spin is independent and as such each spin has the same probability each and every time.

I posted a 3,000 spin graph for both FTL and DBL using NZ spins as it is easier to see 50% probability without the zero.

As you can see both graphs have their ups and downs but it only a guess as to when they start and stop.

We can't win in the long run playing these methods or any method for that matter that relies on single spin independency.

If we can't win in the long run playing single spins, then what do we do?  Quit?

No, DON'T PLAY SINGLE INDEPENDENT SPINS.

Play multiple or groups of spins.  You will not only increase your probability but often you can increase the accuracy of your prediction.  Play 2 Spin Groups, 3 Spin Groups, 9 Spin Groups etc.

To give you an example, I included a 3rd graph on a 2 Spin Group method for 3000 NZ spins.  By playing 2 spins you increase your probability from 50% (single spin) to 75%. By playing 3 Spins your probability increases to 87.5%, etc.

Cheers

Nick

Wishing you and your friendly forum the best

Cheers

Nick

Thanks for the offer Mr G.

I already have it coded in Excel as Excel is what powers my bot.

Yes, we have 40,000 spin results which look good but I have been around long enough to know that we need more results to validate.  Currently we have 92,000 spins completed and the win% dropped slightly from 60% to 59%.

In about a week or so I need to get with Victor to fix a small bug in the XLBot and then I can send it out to other forum members for independent verification.

Cheers

Nick

"I agree. But I don't see how using statistics will make VDW an overall winner."

Let me give you an example of how Statistics are used.

Assume you have a biased wheel.  Divide the wheel into 2 Sectors.  Test for thousands of spins and the Statistics could show that 60% of the time the ball will land in one sector and 40% in the other.

This is a Statistical Imbalance that can be exploited.

There is a similar Statistical Imbalance using VDW that I am exploiting and my initial results seem to support it.

Right now this is not a system, I am just testing the principal of can you get an edge in a 50/50 game by a Statistical Imbalance in VDW.

When the results are known and independently verified, then we can address systems for SZ Roulette, baccarat, craps etc.
Cheers
Nick