Hello MrG

Yes, you are correct, if you play it the way you outlined you get normal results.

The formation of AP's by themselves, no matter how you play them, will not give you the edge.

As I mentioned before, you need to apply STATISTICS to get an edge.

Statistics is analyzing a set of data for the purpose of drawing general conclusions, ie, facts.

VDW has a set of finite data, it has 16 AP's and 512 (9 Spin) patterns. 

An example of VDW statistic is that 98% of the time an AP will be formed in the first 8 spins.

Another statistic, 35% of the time the AP 1-2-3 will be formed.

Another statistic, less than 1% of the time is the AP 7-8-9 formed.

Use of Math and Statistics will help you consistently beat a 50/50 game.
Cheers
Nick

Thanks Plolp for the examples, I tend to get lost in the programming and testing and forget to explain things.


"So if you don't Martingale till you win then you are expecting the wins to be more than the losses?"

Yes, Blue Angel, we get more Wins than Losses and that is how we gain an edge.  That is why I am testing everything Flat Betting to be sure there is an edge and when determined then we can add a progression.

As I mentioned before, I do not play in Brick & Mortar Casino's as none are nearby, so I am planning on playing On Line Only.  You are right, this current system is a grind.  If you Flat Bet with 1 Euro Chips you would only make 83 Euros per week which is a meager income.  But our plans are to play more than 1 Casino per Day, then the income multiplies.

Cheers

Nick

Hi Barron,

Yes, the double chops (terrible twos)will lose as well as many other patterns but we have to accept the losses and keep on betting because eventually our edge will overcome the losses.

The Mutual Bets occur only on spin 7-8-9.  I avoid playing the Mutual Bets.

A couple ways to avoid them is to bet only the AP's in spins 1-6.  You will never get a Mutual Bet.

My preferred way to avoid the Mutual Bet is to bet only one side.  Just Bet Black and you will never get a Mutual Bet.

Hope this helps.

Nick

Thanks Max,

Hi Barron518,

I have tested all 16 AP's individually and in combination with each other.  The VDW that I am testing now does not
use all the AP's.

Cheers

Nick

As promised I have attached an Excel Sheet with our actual Demo Results covering 40,000 spins, (40 Sessions of 1,000 spins each).

The bet selection is one of my VDW for 1 EC.

It was played on the NZ table with BetVoyager.

All bets were 1 unit each.

We had over 30,000 placed bets which is generally acceptable validity.

We won 24 of the 40 sessions (60%).

We showed a small profit of 176 units or .0044/spin.

As you can see, it was indeed a grind. 

If you played this in a Brick and Mortar Casino at an average 200 spins/hands per day, it would take 200 days to get these results.

Next step is to make this system better.

Cheers
Nick

Hello Patrik,

I do not play in Brick and Mortar Casino's primarily because there are none near where I live. The ones that I have access to do not have baccarat and have only double zero roulette.

So with my background in programming, I decided to concentrate on testing and playing On Line Casino's for now and while 1,000 spin sessions seems a lot, it only takes my bot 2-4 hours to complete.

Cheers
Nick

Hi Dane, got a good chuckle with my Group of 9 sins. It's just a way of life, when you reach my age, fingers, brains and sins don't always work in harmony.

Hi MrG, yes the results in Reply # 216 shows one way of playing.  If you look closely at the graph picture you will see the name of the Excel Sheet that I wrote which powers the bot, ie, "Nick's VW CAPS 4 Spins NZ".  If shows one of the Statistical Ways to approach the VDW bet.  More on the Statistics, which is a key element, in the following responses to Alrelax and Blue Angel.

Hi Al, thanks for your opinion and offer.  I am not interested as what I do is for bots to be playing On Line Casinos not brick and mortar.  Now if you make the offer $50,000,000 then I would be happy to divert my efforts.

The house edge in SZ roulette is about 2.7% and in baccarat around 1.06%.  The Casino's know they will make this edge in the long run but they make the bulk of their money in the short run because most people are not professional and they are playing for fun or recreation, they are on vacation to gamble, watch shows, and eat good food.

The VDW does not have the vacationers to provide immediate income.  It is a grind to flat bet 1 EC or 1 hand at a time.  Later this week we will be completing 40 sessions of 1,000 spins each for a VDW system flat betting.  I will publish the grind so you all can see how it fluctuates, how often it loses, wins etc.

Hi Blue Angel, always glad to hear from a critical thinker.  Yes, you are correct, you will ultimately come to the 9th spin still with a 50/50 chance at that point.

What I was trying to explain is that there are STATISTICS that can be exploited.  The 512 patterns are just one set of statistics that can be used.  Using your example, what is the STATISTIC of getting to the 9th spin.?  Less than 2% of the time will you get to the 9th spin. That means that 98% of the time an AP was formed before the 9th spin.

What is the win% for the first 6 spins?  68% of the time you will form an AP in the first 6 spins.

These are some examples of STATISTICS than can be utilized when dealing with a fixed set of data, ie 16 AP's and 512 patterns.

Cheers
Nick

Thanks Magician for your insight.  Are you referring to the Standard Deviations as a type of Variance Curve or something else.  Would love to hear more.

Yes, James you are correct, if you treat each spin independently. 

Each SINGLE spin is independent but a GROUP of 9 sins are DEPENDENT.  You cannot form an AP without using Past Spins.

So you can treat each spin independently and take a "lucky guess" or you can take an "educated guess" that an AP has to form in a Group of 9 spins.

Here's something else to ponder.  Using your example of 18 Red and 18 Black and 1 Green ball in a bag. If you draw a ball from the bag you have 1/37 chance.  Put the ball back in the back and draw again, still 1/37 chance.

But what if you did not put the ball back in the bag?  If you drew a Black and did not put it back, you would then have 18 Reds, 17 Blacks and 1 Green.  Now you have increased your chances of drawing a Red.

With VDW there are only 512 patterns that can be formed in 9 Spins. 256 patterns starting with R and 256 patterns starting with B.

RRRRRRRRR is an example of 1 pattern.

BRRBBBRRR is another example.

Now put all these 512 patterns in your bag.  1st draw is a Red.  Now you have eliminated 256 patterns that start with B.
2nd Draw is a B.  Now you have eliminated all patterns beginning with RR.

Can we apply some Statistical Analysis to this finite set of data (512 patterns & 16 AP's)?

Hope this helps.

Cheers

Nick

Hi MrG and Adulay,

There are many different ways to utilize the VDW theorem, each person develops what is best for his or her style of play.

Here is some food for thought as to why this has a better chance to succeed than other systems.

We are not changing the odds so how can we increase the accuracy of our predictions, ie, our bet selections.

We know that in a "coin toss", there is no reason for favoring "heads" or "tails".  In Roulette, there is no reason for favoring Red or Black.  In Baccarat, there is no reason for favoring Banker or Player.

These are called "unreasoned or wild guesses". If an unreasoned guess turns out to be correct then it is called a "happy guess" or "lucky guess"

By contrast, a guess made using prior knowledge is called an informed guess or an educated guess.

The prior knowledge in this case is the formation of an AP.  If an AP can be formed on the next spin or card then we are making an "educated guess".

An "educated guess" is better than an "uneducated guess".  You make enough "educated guesses" and you might have a foundation for a winning system.

Cheers
Nick

"I had to read so much rubbish about the VdW.

In this and other forums are such a lot of members who claim to be intelligent and mathguys but not one of them did really think about and analyse this way to bet.

1) If we look at the distribution of two colours (R and B or H/L, or E/O) we will get 256 Variations. We can easily reduce this number:
We name the first colour to appear  "1" , the other then obviously "2"
If it starts by: RRB we would note 1 1 2
If it starts by: BBR we would also note 1 1 2
So have just half of 256 variations.

2) If we check how many AP will end at which coup we get the following:
Coup 3: 1
Coup 4: 1
Coup 5: 2
Coup 6: 2
Coup 7: 3
Coup 8: 3
Coup 9: 4

Up to Coup #6 there is only 1 decision possible. From Coup #7 there might be two possible decisions to make.

3) the hitrates:
Coup #3: 24,89%
Coup #4: 12,57%
Coup #5: 18,75%
Coup #6: 12,50%

That makes a total of 68,71% hitrate with only 1 decision to make.

did anyone look at VdW like this? I don´t think so, nor read about."

Here is a post from Winkel on another forum.

This shows both MATH and STATISTICS being used.

Cheers

Nick

Hello Witzi,

I have a bot that plays Excel sheets.

Kindly email me at nickmsi@aol.com if you wish to discuss further.

Cheers

Nick

Welcome back Mate

Nick

Hi Vic and Blue Angel,

I agree with Blue Angel that bet selection is more important than money management.

In keeping with Vic's analogy of building a house.

There are certain things we KNOW have to happen before the house is completed.

1.   We know we have to have a foundation first.
2.   We know that support beams have to be built upon that foundation.
3.   We know that the roof can only be built on those support beams.

IMO bet selections should be made on things we KNOW have to happen.

For example, we know that in 9 spins Red or Black will form one of 16 Arithmetic Progressions (AP).  We know this, it has to happen.  It is a mathematical law (VDW theorem).  This is the foundation.

Once we have a solid foundation, we can continue to build with other bet selections.

Yes, Vic, I believe past spins are necessary as is tracking.

Cheers
Nick

Hi Plolp

Back from vacation and have attached the spreadsheet showing 256 VDW patterns.

Hope this helps.

Nick

Yes, I have an excel sheet showing all 256 patterns, however I am driving to
Colorado to visit Grandsons so I can't send it till I get
back June 12.

If anyone else has the sheet, please upload and thanks

Nick