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#91
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - February 28, 2024, 03:58:22 AM
Hi KFB!!

Say we have at our disposal three different players betting (or fictionally betting) for us.

Step1 player (SP1), Step2 player (SP2) and Step3 player (SP3).

SP1 is the loosest of the three, he tries to get streak classes clustered around any corner by adopting a same two betting scheme (1-1.2 or 1-1.5 or even 1-2).
He doesn't care about losing more than the 3:1 cutoff (losing) ratio, he keep betting when a new low streak class shows up.

SP2 is the medium player starting the action (fictionally or for real) whenever the sd results reach the 2 negative value.
His bets are made by a 3-3.6 or 3-4.5 or even 3-6 'schedule' and again he keep wagering the same sums without any consideration about the current bankroll status. 

SP3 is the tightest player, considering to bet only whenever the sd approaches or surpasses the 3 value.
His bets are 9-10.8 or 9-13.5 or even 9-18.

Since it's virtually impossible not to get inferior streak classes to be clustered once or not clustered for "long" (obviously by adopting proper random walks), this player tend to act very rarely and anyway by a wonderful positive expectancy.
So there's no need to further escalate the multistep players action.

It's true that along the way the HE will consistently reduce the profits by the vig impact, but the probability of success slowly go up by a density well erasing and inverting it.

Moreover, we should understand that the second term of any given two-step wager is set up just as a mere "back-up" plan, that is a kind of challenge that the enemy (5/5+ streaks) won't come out right after two attempts made looking for two specific streak classes.
In a sense, that means that the most focus we should put on is about the first term of any betting schedule, giving the second term the possibility to recoup the first failed attempt (vig considered, that's why we have to raise the previous bet whether lost).

Statistical tools making this plan to work

1) 5/5+ streaks are well defined in their range of apparition along any shoe dealt.
Our two random walks provide ranges between zero to 7 apparitions where zero is about 100 times more likely than 7.
Even 6 apparitions are very very unlikely to happen.

2) An unlikely high number of 5/5+ streaks will deny the formation of inferior streak classes so not making any issue about the clustering effect we're looking for.
This factor gets more amplitude if we'd wait for two inferior and different streak classes to show up before thinking to play them by a clustered fashion.   

3) It's a corollary of the above point: An unlikely high number of 5/5+ streaks will more likely show up clustered (back to back, that is no inferior streaks capable to form a 'trigger' came out). In this instance we won't dream to bet a dime, fictionally or for real.

4) Any 5/5+ streak appearance at the first portion of the shoe is a relative sign that more 5/5+ streaks are coming next: this a very complicated issue related to the average card distribution.
The same about a possible back-to-back 5/5+ cluster.
So do not play towards "balanced" or more likely scenarios when 'enemies' seemed to come out strong.   

5) Two similar but slight different random walks will get very diverse streak distributions, meaning that even whether casinos perfectly know what we're doing they couldn't arrange the cards to get more long streaks than due. 
Fortunately we've devised such random walks making the least possible number of "colliding events", that is hands where we can't know at which random walk streak classes we're looking for may come out or not.
Of course when in doubt we won't risk a cent. 

as.
#92
Vegas and Atlantic City / Re: Top 5 Casinos to Play Bacc...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - February 27, 2024, 09:57:06 PM
Actually we particularly like Wynn as the money won there it's worth double. Just to contradict the owner that once sayed that the only way to make money at a casino is to own one
Well, not everytime mr Steve!

Bellagio, CP, MGM Grand and Aria probably are the best casinos to play baccarat in Vegas, providing to be emotionally insensitive to the action and mood of the worst tourist players (losers) in the world.
Venetian/Palazzo are so so, most of the times there is very few action.

Then there are the off Strip premises crowded by locals where sometimes acute players are spottable.
Those casinos are Palms, Gold Coast, Palace Station and on the far left side of the town Rampart and Red Rock.

Strip or off Strip and from a technical point of view, in our opinion a good rule of thumb would be to only join tables where a machine shuffles the cards.

as.
#93
Baccarat Forum / 2 Great Shoes. One More With 6...
Last post by alrelax - February 27, 2024, 02:28:08 AM
Here are two more great shoes.  First one was a Bankers paradise finishing with +20.  One Fortune 7 near the beginning. 

Second one had another 13 hands after this picture.  Streak of 12 Players occurred, followed by the last hand which was the 6th Fortune 7! 

Fortune 7s at hands; 23-31-45-60-65-80.

38 Bankers, 40 Players, 7 Ties.

First Banker of the shoe (hand 6) opens with a banker 30:1 3 Card 9-0.  See picture. 

One of the Fortune 7s, (I snuck a picture) I had a $250 base bet (first of a new base series bet) black chip on bottom, $50 dragon bonus and $25 fortune 7 wager.  Dealer is cutting out my $1,000 F7 win-$500 black and $500 green.  2:1 for the dragon bonus, win by 5, already laid out, $100.
#94
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by KungFuBac - February 27, 2024, 01:36:38 AM
Hi Asym

"...especially if [bWe want to adopt a multilayered betting scheme[/b] capable to start (or stop) the action whenever at previous streak appearance the increasing values (I) seemed to deviate for too long the expected values.
.."



Q: What is your preferred multi-layered betting scheme (e.g., 1-1, 1-2, 124, 137, other...etc) ?


Thx in advance,
#95
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - February 26, 2024, 04:53:14 AM
Summarizing the streaks topic (singles ignored) from a back-to-back point of view:

From one part doubles can only produce S (back-to-back doubles) or I values (from I-1 = triples or I-2 = 4s streaks or I-3= 5/5+ streaks), and on the other end 5/5+ streaks reproduce the same specular situation ranging from S (back-to-back 5/5+ streaks) to D-1 (4s streaks) or D-2 (triples) or D-3 (doubles).

Every other streak class (that is triples and 4s) can only be followed either by a S event (same streak) or by a two-step D or I scenario.

But since the I value belonging to any streak class is somewhat more restricted than the more likely D counterpart (considering as neutral any S clustered apparition), any attack made on such streak "clusters" will get us an edge.

It's like that any streak not belonging to the 5/5+ class, will more likely move around a S or one-step D situation, especially if we'd want to adopt a multilayered betting scheme capable to start (or stop) the action whenever at previous streak appearance the increasing values (I) seemed to deviate for too long the expected values.

In a couple of days I'll present you the most extremely bad situations we had to cross through.
Many times accepting serenely a temporary inevitable loss.

as. 
#96
Vegas and Atlantic City / Re: Top 5 Casinos to Play Bacc...
Last post by alrelax - February 25, 2024, 10:18:03 PM
Well, my opinion from actual years of experience. 

Caesars Palace.  Lots and lots of great times. Great dealers, staff and other personnel.  Huge experience and with the casino patron is right personalities, etc.  Note:  The article with the link refers to mostly 200.00 min tables in high limit.  Not true.  $100.00/$10,000.00 is the base table and always plenty of them. 

Bellagio.  Lot and lots of great times as well. Great dealers and staff no doubt.  Not as accommodating with casino patrons as Caesars, but case by case basis might change that.  Equally a great property with huge high limit room.  I am partial to the well known restaurants a bit more than the ones at Caesars, but they are close in taste, style and pricing (if you have to pay out of pocket).

The Mirage.  A bit lower class and style than both the above, but had some great trips and games there without a doubt when it was under the MGM umbrella.  Have not been there since it was sold and a bit prior to that.  Their bac high limit was super great in most all ways. 

Gold Coast.  Another type of property compared to the above three.  Usually crowded and lots of verbal arguments and fighting about anything and everything.  Mostly $2,000/$2,500 and $5,000 max tables.  Min's depend on crowd and time of day. 

Red Rock.  Great relaxed and beautiful quiet property.  High limit was nice with 4 bac tables.  $50/$100-$10,000 max unless you have larger front money or credit account set-up.  Very accommodating and players are valuable there.

Planet Hollywood.  Had some fantastic times there.  Was great all around property for countless reasons.

Lots of comments (neg) about The Wynn, Venetian-Palazzo as well, but will reserve those. Played plenty at another 10 plus properties as well.

The above is the top 5-6 properties IMO. 
#97
Baccarat Forum / Re: Coincidence Vs. "RRR"
Last post by alrelax - February 25, 2024, 05:57:24 PM
Yeah, the above is 5.5 years old.  But, it was brought to my attention last night how much it has helped someone found certain realities and what an illusive repetitive nature the game of bac is. 

Think what you like, think what you have experienced, think what the stats dictate if that's what you like, think a trigger will work 90% or greater of the time, it's all good......, but THINK-THINK AND THINK!

But I must add the following today:

There are three things people have to understand: A) You can get on, you can get off; B) You get value, you do not get value;  C) You get confidence or not. And no matter what you do in life, confidence is the number one, absolutely #1. Let's say one fellow bets 20:1 shots. After 19 losses he hits the 20th one, he comes back a winner, and he's level. Another fellow's betting evens out as well. After 10 winners and 10 losses wagering his win money each time, he's level also. They have both got the same money, but he's been right 10 times. Who's going to have more confidence?

But nobody talks about confidence, the mental instabilities involved in gambling. And that's what it is all about in my opinion. It's all about how you perform under pressure, with real money, at the table, and how you perform when it all goes wrong.

And believe me, it will go wrong.
#98
Vegas and Atlantic City / Top 5 Casinos to Play Baccarat...
Last post by KungFuBac - February 25, 2024, 04:41:00 PM
Personally, I'm partial to Bellagio's. First class atmoshphere along with well trained professional staff.
The ranking IMO is reasonable and justified. I've played many times at all (except Aria). I seldom play at Aria but hear good things from locals, so I don't have an informed opinion.

Red Rock is nice, clean, and a quiet atmosphere. I don't play there very often.

Any and all opinions are welcomed.


https://www.gambleonline.co/casino/land-based/las-vegas/baccarat/
#100
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: cryptocurrency and me
Last post by KungFuBac - February 25, 2024, 04:24:21 PM
"...Just wait 5-6 months to see an all time high price, easily going over $80k...."

I will revisit this thread in less than 5-6 months. The lessons to be learned could be better stated as: "Some lessons can't be taught."

I do admire the marketing of bitcoin et al cryptos as it will go down in history as a marketing masterpiece. The gold-colored coin with a capitol "B" along with a $ sign. Marketing genius. I wonder why they didn't choose a rock, stick, SIM card, computer mouse,..etc.

The losers are ill-informed buyers caught up in the spiral of greed. The result is a massive transfer of wealth from ordinary families to internet promoters. Opinion by Kungfubac.

Some of the early clues that crypto was on a hype train and not a sound financial investment:

a)The U.S. media was all for it and incessantly singing the praises and virtues of all things cryptos.
Financial gurus such as Michael Saylor, Max Kaiser, Jim Cramer,...etc  plugged it every chance(until it tanked numerous times. Jim Cramer has for years had a financial show on CNBC, written books,...etc. His picks have been so horrendous for the past three(as in 30yrs)  decades that a (Anti Jim Cramer) stock index has been formed, lol. The (SJIM). He still writes books and has a financial advice show.

b) It was first proclaimed to be a currency, now, a commodity, IMO a commodity at best.

c) It can't go up unless someone pays you more for it. The greater fools theory fits it best vs Ponzi scheme. A ponzi scheme runs out of new investors and the perpetrator runs out of funds to make any payouts. See Bernie Madoff.

We all could buy 10,000 items with it tomorrow and it wouldn't necessarily go up(or down). It does nothing and produces nothing. An interesting and theoretical concept, at best.

d) It helps to understand that a bitcoin has no value at all.

Since its inception promoters incessantly claim cryptocurrency is valuable as (1) a means of payment, (2) a store of value and/or (3) a thing in itself. None of these claims are true.

1. Means of Payment. Bitcoins are accepted almost nowhere vs proclamations of everywhere, and most cryptocurrencies nowhere at all. Even where accepted, a currency whose value can swing 10 percent or more in a single day is useless as a means of payment.

2. Store of Value. Extreme price volatility also makes bitcoin undesirable as a store of value. And the storehouses — the cryptocurrency trading exchanges — are far less reliable and trustworthy than ordinary banks and brokers.

3. Thing in Itself. A bitcoin has no intrinsic value. It only has value if people think other people will buy it for a higher price — the Greater Fool theory.

Cryptocurrency is best-suited for one use: Criminal activity. Because transactions can be anonymous — law enforcement cannot easily trace who buys and sells — its use is dominated by illegal endeavors.

Most heavy users of bitcoin are criminals, such as Silk Road and WannaCry ransomware. Too many bitcoin exchanges have experienced spectacular heists, such as NiceHash and Coincheck, or outright fraud, such as Mt. Gox and Bitfunder. Way too many Initial Coin Offerings are scams — 418 of the 902 ICOs in 2017 have already failed.
*Note--See FTX, See Sam Bankman-Fried.

Bitcoin transactions are sometimes promoted as instant and nearly free, but they're often relatively slow and expensive. It takes about an hour for a bitcoin transaction to be confirmed, and the bitcoin system is limited to five transactions per second. MasterCard can process 38,000 per second. Transferring $100 from one person to another costs about $6 using a cryptocurrency exchange, and well less than $1 using an electronic check.

Bitcoin is absurdly wasteful of natural resources. Because it is so compute-intensive, it takes as much electricity to create a single bitcoin — a process called "mining" — as it does to power an average American household for two years. If bitcoin were used for a large portion of the world's commerce (which won't happen), it would consume a very large portion of the world's electricity, diverting scarce power from useful purposes.

Not a peep from the climate folks and environmentalists.


I agree with most of the opinions above. Reference and kudos also go to B. Harris, former CEO of Intuit and founding CEO of PayPal and Personal Capital. He has written many fine articles regarding all things bitcoin.