I was going to title the thread cr@p stats....but that didn't sound right. :)
These stats are from different books. Frank Bairstow's classic ''Beat the Casino'' has a good few chapters dedicated to craps with quite a few strategies outlined.
Bairstow recorded 5,000 decisions on the Strip (Las Vegas) and came up with the following.
Runs of 5 or more occurred once in 36 decisions.
Runs of 7 or more occurred once in 140 decisions.
Runs of 8 or more occurred once in 450 decisions.
He went on to say that alternating sequences of comparable length occurred less frequently than repeat sequences, but there were almost equal numbers of such sequences 8 and over in length.
His experience and testing suggested that whenever they were five to seven repeats, or four alternating decisions, that a favourable bet was to bet that these sequences would not continue for a further 3 decisions.
More stats courtesy of a poster called 'Kelph' from Gambler's Glen circa 2007...
Craps statisticians have noted that the average number of rolls between a point being made and a 7-out is 3.5. That means that, on average, once a player has established a point number, there will be 3-4 rolls before a 7-out. There are more streaks of 7-outs than streaks of winning points. That's because a 7-out is about 46% more likely than a winning point. For example, a streak of five 7-outs will happen almost seven times as often as a streak of five winning points.
The cumulative probability (does not include CO Naturals) for a shooter to make six passes in a row:
1 Pass 40.61%
2 Passes 16.49%
3 Passes 6.70%
4 Passes 2.72%
5 Passes 1.10%
6 Passes .45%
By waiting until the shooter has made the first Point, Don't Bettors are in a much better position to win when the shooter tries to make his second actual Pass Point. You want to scout for a Cold/Cool table or could probably settle for a Choppy one trending to the Cool with the Carsch Progression. If you're so dense as to be betting the Don't on a Warm to Hot table you deserve what happens to you (or what the Right players do to you).
What I am going to do from the '72 hours at the craps table' book is to compile the runs of alternates and repeats. I will just do a few pages at a time and update the table. What I want to find out is if Bairstow's theory of fewer alternate runs holds out over the 15,000 rolls.
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The above is around the first 1000 rolls. One interesting thing looking at it so far is the alternates of 3 (at 13) far outweigh the streaks of 3 (at 5) although admittedly it's early days.
cheers
Quote from: Bally6354 on August 21, 2016, 11:26:02 AM
By waiting until the shooter has made the first Point, Don't Bettors are in a much better position to win when the shooter tries to make his second actual Pass Point. You want to scout for a Cold/Cool table or could probably settle for a Choppy one trending to the Cool with the Carsch Progression. If you're so dense as to be betting the Don't on a Warm to Hot table you deserve what happens to you (or what the Right players do to you).
Craps is like roulette in that past outcomes don't affect future outcomes, so waiting for anything in these games is a waste of time.
If you're so dense that you believe otherwise, you deserve what happens to you.
Thanks for your advice Jake. :P
Updated table.
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updated table...
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When I finish this table after the 15,000 rolls, I will split the alternates and streaks into the DON'T and PASS bets.
Quote from: Jake on August 23, 2016, 01:08:17 PM
Craps is like roulette in that past outcomes don't affect future outcomes, so waiting for anything in these games is a waste of time.
If you're so dense that you believe otherwise, you deserve what happens to you.
Up to a certain degree I agree, but streaks in craps tend to be shorter than those of roulette.
Good to see cats talkin dice, hey hey!
Quote from: Blue_Angel on August 28, 2016, 04:07:34 PM
Up to a certain degree I agree, but streaks in craps tend to be shorter than those of roulette.
The longest I've ever seen was 12 DP decisions, from others, I read on a forum about 13 P in a row.
Never encounter anything longer.
Bally, what's the longest in your book?
On roulette we could see 18,19,20...
I don't know why but this is a fact, if anyone could bring forth an evidence for the opposite, then please be my guest!
Quote from: Blue_Angel on August 31, 2016, 03:34:21 PM
Bally, what's the longest in your book?
over 14,967 rolls.
13 pass
11 don't pass
I can give you a full break down. Coming up.
pass line.
1. 613
2. 282
3. 121
4. 69
5. 30
6. 16
7. 4
8. 1
9. 0
10. 3
11. 1
12. 0
13. 1
Don't pass.
1. 552
2. 264
3. 160
4. 59
5. 36
6. 19
7. 12
8. 5
9. 1
10. 1
11. 1
Quote from: Bally6354 on August 31, 2016, 05:00:06 PM
over 14,967 rolls.
13 pass
11 don't pass
I can give you a full break down. Coming up.
So it's almost the same as I said above, glad to be confirmed.
Do you realize the difference between streaks on roulette and on craps?
What's your explanation about it?
I've one but not sure if it's valid, I'd like to hear yours first.
Blue Angel, I will relate what an authority on craps had to say...
''Craps is not streak prone in general but the lack of ''streakiness'' is most evident on the pass side. Therefore the best option for betting the Pass is seconds, and not thirds or runs.''
He could have a point when you look at the runs of 3's. 121 on the pass side and 160 on the don't side.
Quote from: Bally6354 on August 31, 2016, 05:07:40 PM
pass line.
1. 613
2. 282
3. 121
4. 69
5. 30
6. 16
7. 4
8. 1
9. 0
10. 3
11. 1
12. 0
13. 1
Don't pass.
1. 552
2. 264
3. 160
4. 59
5. 36
6. 19
7. 12
8. 5
9. 1
10. 1
11. 1
Over 14,967 rolls a 10 in a row should occur roughly 15 times for 1 side plus 15 times for the other.
I see 3 streaks of 10 for the 'pass' and 1 for the 'don't', don't you think those 4 streaks are a far cry from 20?!
It's not insignificant difference like 17 or 16 or even 14, out of approximately 15K only 4 streaks of 10!
Just think about it!
Yep, and I suppose I can see his thinking more clearly now behind his P, P, D, P, x (bet for the D where the x is) He claimed it produced a better than 50% win rate in his long term tests. The only problem was the lack of betting opportunities. Sometimes only a few per hour.
I made a mistake, the theoretical average should be 15, not 30 per 15K results.
However, 4 streaks of 10 is not even one third of 15!
My explanation lies on the elements of each game, the wheel has 37 or 38 pockets, while the 2 dice have 6 sides each, a total of 12 sides.
The 12 is not even one third of 37 or 38...
Quote from: Bally6354 on August 31, 2016, 05:29:34 PM
Yep, and I suppose I can see his thinking more clearly now behind his P, P, D, P, x (bet for the D where the x is) He claimed it produced a better than 50% win rate in his long term tests. The only problem was the lack of betting opportunities. Sometimes only a few per hour.
Bally,
Would it be possible for you to reveal the name of this author and which book it is?
If you don't want to reveal the above information, it's okay -- I understand.
Hello Doctor Sudoku,
Sure, it's Greiner's ''The Future Gambler''. He has a couple of chapters dedicated to Craps. One is basic and the other is pretty advanced. When I get some spare time, I will start a thread called 'Greiner on Craps'. That game was his forte and the advanced Craps chapter in his book titled ''symmetrical patterns from asymmetrical relationships'' is a good read.
cheers
Just thinking about what I have talked about recently regarding craps not having a streaky nature made me go back and look in Greiner's book to find out what progression he came up with for a game more choppy than streaky. He wrote this about his 'bricklayer' MM.
'The Bricklayer is particularly good at converting choppy or zig-zag results (which would otherwise be nothing more than a bag of trash) into sizable profits without sizable risk. It's also nice to know that the Bricklayer will profit in streaky environments too.'
Sounds good to me. ;D So I will go and re-read his Bricklayer MM and make that the next post in my blog.
cheers
I might as well just post here so nobody has to go looking for it.
[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]
Play around with it and see what you think.
cheers
It may help if I show a few games. One winning and one losing.
Game 1) winning game.
+2, -2a, -2b, +4c, -2b, +4c, +2a, -3a, +3b, +3a, -3a, +6b, +4a, end of game.
Game 2) losing game.
+2, -2a, -2b, +4c, -2b, -4c, end of game.
See if you can follow along with the results above looking at the chart.
cheers
I don't know what made me think of it, but I decided to run the VDW AP with the Bricklayer's Wall using the first few spins from today.
Here it is....
[attachimg=1]
They could be a good match up.
cheers
Quote from: Bally6354 on September 02, 2016, 09:37:09 AM
Hello Doctor Sudoku,
Sure, it's Greiner's ''The Future Gambler''. He has a couple of chapters dedicated to Craps. One is basic and the other is pretty advanced. When I get some spare time, I will start a thread called 'Greiner on Craps'. That game was his forte and the advanced Craps chapter in his book titled ''symmetrical patterns from asymmetrical relationships'' is a good read.
cheers
Bally,
Thanks for these excerpts. That book is pretty much impossible to find (at least at a reasonable price). So your excerpts are most welcome.
By the way, it is good to see someone outside the US interested in craps. It is a great game, but the complicated layout and the myriad of available bets make it less appealing elsewhere.
Doctor Sudoku,
The men in suits have tried their hardest to introduce Craps to the UK several times over the last 5-10 years.....but unfortunately it just never got going. I don't know why really. You could say that Craps is a true gambling game where you get some kind of interaction handling the dice and mostly all hoping for the shooter to make a pass. I will definitely be giving it a shot next time I am down in London.
There are about 7/8 different progressions that Greiner came up with in the book. I will make an effort to put them all up because they are all different.
cheers
In USA, Craps has 1.4% house advantage and Roulette has 5.3% HA. In London roulette has 1.3% HA and you can play sitting down. It makes sense that in USA, Craps is popular and in London, roulette is popular.
Just went through the 72 hours at the craps table looking for different angles.
If you wait for PASS, PASS and then bet the DON'T.... = +24 over the 15k rolls. (I didn't include any 12's rolled where you wouldn't get paid)
The thing I wanted to discover is the longest losing series of 3+ PASS's. So that would be 1)PASS, PASS, PASS,......2)PASS, PASS, PASS etc..
I got one run of 8 as the longest.
When I get some time, I will break it all down into the runs of losses.
cheers
Quote from: Bally6354 on September 07, 2016, 02:03:08 PM
Just went through the 72 hours at the craps table looking for different angles.
If you wait for PASS, PASS and then bet the DON'T.... = +24 over the 15k rolls. (I didn't include any 12's rolled where you wouldn't get paid)
The thing I wanted to discover is the longest losing series of 3+ PASS's. So that would be 1)PASS, PASS, PASS,......2)PASS, PASS, PASS etc..
I got one run of 8 as the longest.
When I get some time, I will break it all down into the runs of losses.
cheers
Hi Bally,
Craps will do your head in.
My old man was a local legend at craps. Had it all figured out and played the game as good as any before him. Fully syndicated partners buying in and all that.
Went on for years and cost him dearly.
Because he was so good at it and played it so long, I could estimate a figure of $1,000,000 in losses for my share of his inheritance, and I have 2 siblings.
Thanks for the tip Greenguy.... Your Dad sounds like he was a larger than life character.
At least with all this study, I will understand what's going on the next time I at a Craps table. :)
cheers
So here is the breakdown for the runs of losses consisting of a minimum of 3 passes...(PASS, PASS, PASS) From 15k rolls.
1) 62
2) 28
3) 17
4) 5
5) 3
6) 3
7) 2
8> 1
cheers
The bad news about the above is that you would need a 3k bankroll (martingale) just to win 1,400 over 15k spins if you waited for pass,pass,pass....pass,pass,pass....pass,pass,pass with no singles or doubles in between and pray you didn't hit a run of 9.