You said you are strict flat betting. Give, please, an advice in which direction need to think to create a winning flat betting scheme. You are long term winning flat bettor, yes?
The reasons why only a flat betting approach should get a long term advantage are quite simple to understand.
- any bet is supposed to be EV-, thus no matter how deep we make progressive bets our EV will be negative.
For that matter, let experts to show me how to beat even a fair 50/50 game as a classic coin flip succession is.
- if progressive betting aficionados think that at certain points something must be more likely than the opposite situation, why not focusing the action about those (maybe rare) spots without risking money previously?
- EV- or EV neutral games applied to a random source cannot be beaten itlr by any means.
Fortunately baccarat is not so randomly placed and/or so independently dealt as math 'experts' keep to say.
Now let's see the reasons why this game could be beatable by flat betting (for the good peace of mind of those who cannot think this is possibile):
- most part of shoes are not properly shuffled, meaning that key cards are more or less concentrated at some parts of the shoe way higher than what a perfect shuffling will do.
Whenever key cards are quite concentrated along some portions of the shoe, more likely outcomes come out even in term of whimsical actual results.
We play probabilities and not short term actual results.
- at real live baccarat shoes, the sym/asym (91.4/8.6) ratio produces sd values quite different than at a random and perfect independent model.
- no way each bac hand is dealt by the common 50.68/49.32 percentage (ties ignored). BP hands probability moves from 0.5/0.5 (sym hands) to 0.5793/0.4207 (average asym strenght hands), thus our bets will get either a neutral (and fair) EV or a strong positive or strong negative EV.
Of course such discrepancy definitely will happen more likely when key cards are more diluted than concentrated.
The probability to be right or wrong moves around the actual key cards distribution.
Very slight key card concentrations will make the game quite unbeatable, as hands are more likely to form whimsical results as few hands are strongly favorite at the start to win the final hand.
We do not need to classify key cards, itlr most shoes will form patterns eliciting more likely patterns, especially when considering outcomes at different paces.
For example, consider the three derived roads making an univocal red or blue outcome. Those are rare situations, mostly when long hopping lines or long consecutive streaks or back to back streaks happen.
Classify them and try to figure out how many times r or b streaks will stand or shift to the opposite situation per any shoe played and per each level considered.