Author Topic: Why bac could be beatable itlr  (Read 66659 times)

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AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #300 on: April 08, 2021, 09:09:11 pm »
KFB and Rickk,
if you wish to expand your thoughts here you are very welcome!

Have a nice day!

as.

Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

KungFuBac

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #301 on: April 17, 2021, 04:18:13 am »
Hi AsymBacGuy

Thx for clarifying RickK inquiry as I also had questions re:  the levels above that 2nd tier if one is losing after the first tier.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

AsymBacGuy

Math aspects

Even though we could be the worst bac guessers in the universe, per every 7-hand cycle bet our winning probability will be 72.66% as among the possible 128 WL patterns, 93 of them will be winners and just 35 losers (as we'd stop the betting after getting a W amount overcoming Ls).

Notice that differently to a common martingale, those bets are less susceptible to the negative variance and table limits, as they are assessed by 7-hand same amount steps.

This system is so powerful and math wise that just 2 or 3 people playing as a team will get enormous profits, after all itlr a 72.66% probability cannot be wrong for long.

Anyway most players like to play on their own and it's easy to assume that this system could get the bets so high to make in jeopardy everyone's bankroll and peace of mind.

Therefore we want to introduce the "scale reduction" factor, an important strategic tool capable to control the variance and at the same time keeping the benefit of a math advantage.

_________________________________________________________

I guess it goes back to: What Is Ones Objective.

In other words how do we want to slice our buyin, how often can we tolerate losing buyin, how much do we want to earn as a f(x) of buyin, as a f(x) of bankroll,...etc.

Anyway most players like to play on their own and it's easy to assume that this system could get the bets so high to make in jeopardy everyone's bankroll and peace of mind.

I think we can expect a majority of  Negpro methods will eventually escalate bets too high (reach Tmax, bust buyin,...etc) --its just that this particular method seems to escalate immediately. However, at first glance I do agree it will handle most shoes by the 2nd or 3rd stage. So the abrupt increase in wager size will in all likelihood be less damaging to buyin than we would initially guess. My main reservation would be not knowing if that really bad (-3.5SD) shoe was the very first one.

I like the beginning stages and the idea of 1/7ths at the initial level. However, it abruptly shifts from a low/slow curve to the trajectory of a rocket.

I've never played this method  so just a quick thoughts/opinion. If I was required to do a similar Negpro my personal preference would be to add a few more tiers to that 7-wager Level 1, and  prior to the recoup-or-throw the towel in  stage(s) .

How many Tiers? Levels? This is where it gets back to my initial sentence:

What Is Ones Objective.

Asym, do you play a similar approach. Do you have any data from others that have played it? ROI?

How would you improve it?

Many Thanks,

Its not how fast you win, its how well you win fast
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #302 on: April 18, 2021, 09:53:55 pm »

Only a team could approach the 7-tier system in the original aggressive version having a "leader" instructing when to bet and sharing an enormous bankroll.
Such a team work very well at online sites where different result lines are put together in order to get supposedly "more likely" betting spots (by a pc software, of course).

Even tough bets can theorically (and practically) reach huge values, this system is mathematically sound as per every 7-tier played the math probability to win is 72.66%.

I do not use this system as I'm a strict flat betting aficionado and HS live player (and mentor), anyway the 7-tier concept is quite interesting as it doesn't take into account single results but successions of 7-hand outcomes attacked by the same bet amount.

We know that itlr among the 128 possible WL patterns, each of them will present sooner or later, besides a "general" math probability to succeed it's just the relative frequency of every single WL pattern that cares.

There are several steps to assess whether we're doing good for a reason or by luck.

Best example is to estimate the most deviated 2/128 WL patterns, that is WWWWWWW and LLLLLLL patterns.
If after a given amount of shoes tested the former number will overcome the latter, we got a sure sign that the probability to be right is more significant than otherwise.

The same about less deviated patterns as those containing 6 W or L and specular 1 L or W and so on.

Obviously when considering an odd number of patterns, most winning situations come out after knowing the very first W or L result nature as there are more winning patterns starting with a W than the opposite situation.
If we'd think to get a long term winning system we should put a lot of emphasis about this very first bet.

Now say that we do not want to set up or belong to a team but trying to get the best of it by not  risking a lot of money.

Whenever the 7-tier system will dictate to bet a progressive X amount, we'll reduce it by a 5:1 scale.
Therefore after the first 7-tier betting series, we'll get those scenarios:

-1 unit loss= next betting amount 1

-3 unit loss= next betting amount 1

- 5 unit loss= nerxt betting amount 1.1

- 7 unit loss = next betting amount 1.4

It's true that now a very first bet (and other profitable conditions) won't erase the deficit by just a +1 W step over a L counterpart at any degree considered, but it's altogether true that mathematically we'll need a way lesser amount of profitable patterns to get the same erasing deficit.

Say tonight we're not guessing a fkng nothing, thus getting 5 more losses at 1.4 betting amount level.
Overall we got 2 wins and 12 losses (7 L and 0 W at 1 unit level and 2 W and 5 L at 1.4 unit level).
Thus we are behind 7 units plus 1.4 x 3 units = 7 + 4.2 units = 11.2 units.

Next bet will be 11.2 : 0.5 = 2.24 unit.

We see that even after a very unlikely 2:12 WL ratio our next bet will be just set up at 2.24 unit.

Now we need just a lesser amount of WL patterns than math expected to erase the deficit (even adding up the vig impact to losses), actually a wise flat betting approach cannot reach strong LW deviations by any means.

Nonetheless, even a "I do not care about what the shoe is producing" strategy (not recommended) will get a proper math advnantage itlr.

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

KungFuBac

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #303 on: April 19, 2021, 04:16:22 pm »
Good Morning  Asym/thx

"...Only a team could approach the 7-tier system in the original aggressive version having a "leader" instructing when to bet and sharing an enormous bankroll..."

Yes, we might could get a 3-member team to agree on the benefits of diluting the effects of variance across our wagers/buyin.  However, that same 3-member team may not be as enthused when it came time to split the profits (33/33/33%). :)

Asym: "...Obviously when considering an odd number of patterns, most winning situations come out after knowing the very first W or L result nature as there are more winning patterns starting with a W than the opposite situation..."

*Im not sure what you mean by this phrase.

Continued Success,

"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

argalim147

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #304 on: April 19, 2021, 04:19:34 pm »

Only a team could approach the 7-tier system in the original aggressive version having a "leader" instructing when to bet and sharing an enormous bankroll.
Such a team work very well at online sites where different result lines are put together in order to get supposedly "more likely" betting spots (by a pc software, of course).

Even tough bets can theorically (and practically) reach huge values, this system is mathematically sound as per every 7-tier played the math probability to win is 72.66%.

I do not use this system as I'm a strict flat betting aficionado and HS live player (and mentor), anyway the 7-tier concept is quite interesting as it doesn't take into account single results but successions of 7-hand outcomes attacked by the same bet amount.

We know that itlr among the 128 possible WL patterns, each of them will present sooner or later, besides a "general" math probability to succeed it's just the relative frequency of every single WL pattern that cares.

There are several steps to assess whether we're doing good for a reason or by luck.

Best example is to estimate the most deviated 2/128 WL patterns, that is WWWWWWW and LLLLLLL patterns.
If after a given amount of shoes tested the former number will overcome the latter, we got a sure sign that the probability to be right is more significant than otherwise.

The same about less deviated patterns as those containing 6 W or L and specular 1 L or W and so on.

Obviously when considering an odd number of patterns, most winning situations come out after knowing the very first W or L result nature as there are more winning patterns starting with a W than the opposite situation.
If we'd think to get a long term winning system we should put a lot of emphasis about this very first bet.

Now say that we do not want to set up or belong to a team but trying to get the best of it by not  risking a lot of money.

Whenever the 7-tier system will dictate to bet a progressive X amount, we'll reduce it by a 5:1 scale.
Therefore after the first 7-tier betting series, we'll get those scenarios:

-1 unit loss= next betting amount 1

-3 unit loss= next betting amount 1

- 5 unit loss= nerxt betting amount 1.1

- 7 unit loss = next betting amount 1.4

It's true that now a very first bet (and other profitable conditions) won't erase the deficit by just a +1 W step over a L counterpart at any degree considered, but it's altogether true that mathematically we'll need a way lesser amount of profitable patterns to get the same erasing deficit.

Say tonight we're not guessing a fkng nothing, thus getting 5 more losses at 1.4 betting amount level.
Overall we got 2 wins and 12 losses (7 L and 0 W at 1 unit level and 2 W and 5 L at 1.4 unit level).
Thus we are behind 7 units plus 1.4 x 3 units = 7 + 4.2 units = 11.2 units.

Next bet will be 11.2 : 0.5 = 2.24 unit.

We see that even after a very unlikely 2:12 WL ratio our next bet will be just set up at 2.24 unit.

Now we need just a lesser amount of WL patterns than math expected to erase the deficit (even adding up the vig impact to losses), actually a wise flat betting approach cannot reach strong LW deviations by any means.

Nonetheless, even a "I do not care about what the shoe is producing" strategy (not recommended) will get a proper math advnantage itlr.

as.

Hello, AsymBacGuy!

You said you are strict flat betting.  Give, please, an advice in which direction need to think to create a winning flat betting scheme.  You are long term winning flat bettor, yes?

AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #305 on: April 20, 2021, 08:51:02 pm »

Asym: "...Obviously when considering an odd number of patterns, most winning situations come out after knowing the very first W or L result nature as there are more winning patterns starting with a W than the opposite situation..."

*Im not sure what you mean by this phrase.

Hi KFB!

You are right, I've badly expressed my point.

At 7-tier betting cycles, the break even final result cannot happen, we'll get +1, +3, +5 and +7 and the specular losing counterpart.
Whenever a new 7-tier cycle begins with a W, odds are more favourable to get a final result presenting more Ws than Ls. Meaning that this specific cycle itlr will produce a positive situation, an important issue to be considered when adopting this system or some strategies derivating from it.

Itlr and without a proper advantage, 7-tier final cycles will end up equally between winning cycles and losing cycles.
It's intuitive to think that when a cycle starts with a L, we'll need a higher amount of Ws than Ls to finish a cycle as a winning one.
In some way this system focus about the probability to get a W at the very first hand of a new cycle.
If we're adopting a less aggressive procedure, this feature is even more important as at some time we need winning final cycles to quickly or slowly cancel the previous deficit.

I hope to have explained better the issue.

Take care

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #306 on: April 20, 2021, 11:36:35 pm »
Hello, AsymBacGuy!

You said you are strict flat betting.  Give, please, an advice in which direction need to think to create a winning flat betting scheme.  You are long term winning flat bettor, yes?

Hi argalim!!

The reasons why only a flat betting approach should get a long term advantage are quite simple to understand.

- any bet is supposed to be EV-, thus no matter how deep we make progressive bets our EV will be negative.
For that matter, let experts to show me how to beat even a fair 50/50 game as a classic coin flip succession is.

- if progressive betting aficionados think that at certain points something must be more likely than the opposite situation, why not focusing the action about those (maybe rare) spots without risking money previously?

- EV- or EV neutral games applied to a random source cannot be beaten itlr by any means.
Fortunately baccarat is not so randomly placed and/or so independently dealt as math 'experts' keep to say.

Now let's see the reasons why this game could be beatable by flat betting (for the good peace of mind of those who cannot think this is possibile):

- most part of shoes are not properly shuffled, meaning that key cards are more or less concentrated at some parts of the shoe way higher than what a perfect shuffling will do.
Whenever key cards are quite concentrated along some portions of the shoe, more likely outcomes come out even in term of whimsical actual results.
We play probabilities and not short term actual results.

- at real live baccarat shoes, the sym/asym (91.4/8.6) ratio produces sd values quite different than at a random and perfect independent model.

- no way each bac hand is dealt by the common 50.68/49.32 percentage (ties ignored). BP hands probability moves from 0.5/0.5 (sym hands) to 0.5793/0.4207 (average asym strenght hands), thus our bets will get either a neutral (and fair) EV or a strong positive or strong negative EV.
Of course such discrepancy definitely will happen more likely when key cards are more diluted than concentrated.

Practical issues

The probability to be right or wrong moves around the actual key cards distribution.
Very slight key card concentrations will make the game quite unbeatable, as hands are more likely to form whimsical results as few hands are strongly favorite at the start to win the final hand.
We do not need to classify key cards, itlr most shoes will form patterns eliciting more likely patterns, especially when considering outcomes at different paces.

For example, consider the three derived roads making an univocal red or blue outcome. Those are rare situations, mostly when long hopping lines or long consecutive streaks or back to back streaks happen.
Classify them and try to figure out how many times r or b streaks will stand or shift to the opposite situation per any shoe played and per each level considered.

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #307 on: April 21, 2021, 12:46:01 am »
BTW, it seems that some so called "math experts" do not like to have people posting that bac could be beatable, labelling them as "spammers".

Let's see how this stuff evolves, it could happen I have some stories to tell about them. Specifically regarding Vegas/Henderson (NV) areas.

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

KungFuBac

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #308 on: April 21, 2021, 07:41:46 pm »
Hi AsymBacGuy

I hope to have explained better the issue.

Yes, perfect, & as always thanks for elaboration.

Cheers,
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #309 on: April 25, 2021, 10:01:09 pm »
Actual distributions of the outcomes

Imo winning by flat betting means that after long trials our strategy got more winning clusters than expected and not because the strategy tried to contain in some way the losing clusters' counterpart, even though the latter could be inferior in number.

Therefore our long samples should have provided us more W doubles than W singles, more W triples than W doubles, more W 4+ streaks than W triples and so on.
Despite that, it happens that baccarat outcomes whatever considered but filtered by a strategy dictating to bet very few hands per shoe and not per every shoe, will show two very different profitable peaks: the double W clusters opposed to single W spots and multiple long W clusters often prolonging up to the end of the (playable) shoe.

Now we should choose either about the larger probability and less affected by variance probability to get more W doubles (WW) than WL spots or to play a kind of "sky's the limit" approach hoping that sooner or later we will catch the shoe forming a univocal series of winning spots.
Of course as long as we've ascertained that the number of shoes getting this "all winning succession" feature will outclass the WL or L counterpart considered at various levels.

In other words, do we prefer to get more stable wins or to go for the all wins "jackpot"?
Or maybe a mix of two, thus lowering a lot the standard bet and making progressive bets after a first win was secured?

We see that in either scenarios we are not risking much money per each shoe played as after losing the first step we're not interested to prolong our action. That's why a sudden losing spot or losing stop needs several hands to form another possible profitable opportunity. Surely denying the "all winning situation" already depicted.

How many hands should we play per shoe to get the most of the above features?

Of course the "shoe presenting all winning spots" must be restricted within a relatively short bets amount, we've found out that on average one hand per every ten hands dealt are a good approximated ratio to look for.
That is 7-8 bets per playable shoe, of course this being an expression of average outcomes' distribution.
Naturally more often than not we need just one betting spot to be ahead when searching at a simple WW spot.
Losing spots coming out along the way (especially at the very first situation considered) reduce such ratio up to the point that we can simply get rid of that shoe without losing a dime.

Think that if a given strategy can get 7-8 consecutive wins after 70-75 resolved hands, such strategy can't start with a L.
After all gambling world is made by streaks whatever considered.

Btw, when talking about baccarat do not trust so called "math experts" by any means, they do not know a fkng nothing about this game other than B and P long term probability.
Kashiwagi was stopped to play after a bad losing sequence but being in the positive field nonetheless, why stopping a super HS player knowing he was math entitled to lose huge sums?

Whenever huge sums are allowed to be wagered and smart players are betting, no casino is so sure about the math edge they're taking advantage of. Even after dozens and dozens of shoes played.

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

KungFuBac

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #310 on: April 26, 2021, 03:07:50 am »
Hi AsymBacGuy
Good post above.

I like this statement: "...Imo winning by flat betting means that after long trials our strategy got more winning clusters than expected and not because the strategy tried to contain in some way the losing clusters' counterpart, even though the latter could be inferior in number..."

AS: "...How many hands should we play per shoe to get the most of the above features?

Of course the "shoe presenting all winning spots" must be restricted within a relatively short bets amount, we've found out that on average one hand per every ten hands dealt are a good approximated ratio to look for.
That is 7-8 bets per playable shoe, of course this being an expression of average outcomes' distribution.
Naturally more often than not we need just one betting spot to be ahead when searching at a simple WW spot.
Losing spots coming out along the way (especially at the very first situation considered) reduce such ratio up to the point that we can simply get rid of that shoe without losing a dime..."
[/b]

re:  The Bold Part.   I think I understand, however, could you give a specific example for the sentence in BOLD,

Thank you

Continued Success,
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #311 on: April 26, 2021, 10:33:07 pm »
Hello KFB!

Generally speaking and assuming a low number of bets per shoe getting a diluted pace, each shoe presents more W streaks and L streaks than W/L or L/W alternate patterns.
If we decide to make 7 bets per shoe (by flat betting), every shoe starting with a L will produce more final losing shoes than winning shoes. And the same is oppositely true about shoes starting with a W.
In addition, it's obvious to notice that shoes starting with a L cannot produce all winning shoes as that L must be incorporated among our 7-hand betting streak. That is we're totally erasing the probability to get one of the two peaks (albeit the all winning shoe is a relative distant probability).

Finally, discarding from the play those shoes starting with a L will enlarge the future probability to encounter all wins shoes.

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

KungFuBac

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #312 on: April 28, 2021, 07:09:55 am »
Thx AsymBacGuy for explaining in reply to my Q

"..if we decide to make 7 bets per shoe (by flat betting), every shoe starting with a L will produce more final losing shoes than winning shoes. And the same is oppositely true about shoes starting with a W.
In addition, it's obvious to notice that shoes starting with a L cannot produce all winning shoes as that L must be incorporated among our 7-hand betting streak..."

kfb
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #313 on: May 04, 2021, 10:52:23 pm »

1- Most bac shoes are not perfect randomly shuffled.

2- Bac probabilities are suddendly moving from a kind of many 50/50 propositions to rare single strong shifted 57.93/49.07 situations (asym hands favoring B).

3- Key card average distribution favors a sort of "hopping" game, that is there's a general slight propensity to get the opposite outcome already happened.

4- Every shoe is a finite world apart, especially when taking into consideration the #1 point.

Let's see each of those points.

1.
Many times shoes are shuffled after a previous card distribution was made, yet it's very difficult to provide a strong new random card distribution.
It's quite interesting to notice that poor shuffled shoes tend to provide strong opposite patterns than what the previous one had provided. And we get at least 4 simple roads to assess this probability.
This feature is particularly reliable when Shuffle Master Machines are used and at online sites where more often than not shoes are ridiculously bad shuffled.

2.
There's no point to be hugely right for very few hands happening along the shoe whenever the payment is strongly shifted to the opposite site, unless we have reasons to do that.
I mean that every next hand will get a general 8.6% probability to get a 0.95:1 payment at one side and a 91.4% probability to get a 1:1 fair return at the other one.
Itlr and knowing the different payment between the two sides, symmetrical situations do not favor Banker so much as what the same sym situations can at Player side.

3.
Whenever an asym strenght won't act along the way (no matter what the actual result is but still considering it in term of patterns' lenght), the propensity to get the opposite side will get its full power.
Toss into the trash the asym hands and compare bac results with roulette results and you'll get the picture.

4.
Players who like to consider shoes as single entities are more likely to be long term winners.
Wait, I'm not endorsing the mere trend following idea, yet what did happen can show up consecutively or not but what didn't come out could be silent for the entire shoe.
A thing I'll discuss next time.

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

KungFuBac

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #314 on: May 05, 2021, 05:08:47 pm »
Hi AsymBacGuy--Excellent post as usual.

"...1.
Many times shoes are shuffled after a previous card distribution was made, yet it's very difficult to provide a strong new random card distribution.
It's quite interesting to notice that poor shuffled shoes tend to provide strong opposite patterns than what the previous one had provided. And we get at least 4 simple roads to assess this probability.
This feature is particularly reliable when Shuffle Master Machines are used and at online sites where more often than not shoes are ridiculously bad shuffled. ..."

Q with an example:

Lets say u approach the bac table for the first shoe of the morning. The dealer is hurriedly doing the pre game rituals to open the table and you hear the dealer say to the pit boss "wait, hold on i accidentally did a blackjack shuffle" and the pit boss responds "oh just Fxxx It , just get the game started,  youre already 10 mins late."

I don't know but Im assuming the shuffler has a button one can push for Bac shuffle, BJ shuffle, Mississippi Stud shuffle, XYZ game shuffle,....etc. Again, I do not know.

AsymBacGuy, What type of outcomes would you wager for in that type of shoe? vs a typically-shuffled Bac shoe???