Author Topic: Trigger based betting: pros and cons  (Read 1260 times)

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Offline Albalaha

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #15 on: April 20, 2021, 04:50:18 am »
I have analyzed different types of triggers and found one to be the most playable:
                     A situation where an EC(preferably Player) hits 6 times in 20 consecutive trials or even worse in 20 consecutive trials. I will then wait for either a WW or WLW as trigger to start my session. I believe, this way I can ward off the worst in my game and after this trigger, I would expect at least 8 hits in further 20 consecutive trials with at least 90% certainty. With a good hybrid progression, it should be a cheesecake mostly.
       I know even events with less than 1% probability kicks in a random game very easily but this does not hold good in the long run. I would play for +50/-100. I am also looking to play this for +1 as a cumulative long run and know it to be very very stable with my own MM. I can even input my Extreme Variance management in this. I think this week will be the most eventful for me in concluding my work.
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Offline KungFuBac

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #16 on: April 21, 2021, 07:30:10 pm »
Hi Albalaha/thx for post /comments above. I can tell you have been working diligently on this latest project.

Q: So to clarify u are suggesting as an example: P wins only <=6 of 20, then you see PP or PBP, and the trigger is triggered, so you are confident (@ 90%) that expectation is that P will win >=8 of immediate next 20 decisions. ??

Thx in advance,
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

Offline Albalaha

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2021, 06:22:44 am »
Hi Albalaha/thx for post /comments above. I can tell you have been working diligently on this latest project.

Q: So to clarify u are suggesting as an example: P wins only <=6 of 20, then you see PP or PBP, and the trigger is triggered, so you are confident (@ 90%) that expectation is that P will win >=8 of immediate next 20 decisions. ??

Thx in advance,
               Probability of getting at least 8 wins in 20 trials is over 85% by itself. When I use my alert( P wins only <=6 of 20) and trigger along, it is at least 90% due to the sequential probability of 40 or more trials. So in 90% cases we will either get 8 or more wins in 20 trials. I have simulated 114k zumma baccarat data(without ties) to arrive at this too.

 I would again clarify, doing this does not create any advantage by itself and in the absence of a clever money management, it will lose in the long run as anything else. Those who believe that even -10SD is possible should not read my topic.
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Offline KungFuBac

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #18 on: April 26, 2021, 06:01:26 am »
Hi Albalaha

In previous post I reiterated you prior comments and you confirmed my interpretation: P wins only <=6 of 20, then you see PP or PBP, and the trigger is triggered, so you are confident (@ 90%) that expectation is that P will win >=8 of immediate next 20 decisions.

So going along with your above hypothesis-- lets say we satisfy the first part:
 A) P wins only <=6 of 20, then you see PP or PBP, and the trigger is triggered,

B) then we examine the next 20 decisions which is the next part of the hypotheses: "...confident (@ 90%) that expectation is that P will win >=8 of immediate next 20 decisions.

     *However, lets say we again only received 6/20 P wins in part B (2nd 20-decisions sample).
?Do you then calculate the confidence level again and retry in the very immediate next 20 decisions (i.e., Decisions 41-60)? Or do you address it with another tier of money management or wager size??  Start over?  Other?


Thx
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

Offline Albalaha

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #19 on: April 26, 2021, 06:29:53 am »
Quote
P wins only <=6 of 20, then you see PP or PBP, and the trigger is triggered, so you are confident (@ 90%) that expectation is that P will win >=8 of immediate next 20 decisions.

KFB,
       Have you read it properly you would have comprehended that it has 90% certainty, not 100%. So in case it is less than 8/20 after we bet, it is within the 10% probability spectrum.

In such cases, I would bet again with same trigger as explained and my probability of getting at least 8/20 will be 95% or even higher this time.
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Offline Albalaha

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #20 on: April 26, 2021, 06:35:40 am »
The very basis of my such alert and trigger based betting is "sequential probability" and eliminating sessions from hell. I add more to it like extreme variance management and overall my unbeatable money management to make it more potent. We will still lose at times but losses will never be huge and recovery with 90% winning sessions will be a cheesecake.
              I understand that people take my statements in isolation and it could mislead them as well. Understand that no way of picking bet or opting any betselection is not sufficient by itself. There are many more sides to it. Money management is most essential.
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Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #21 on: April 26, 2021, 10:40:31 pm »
The very basis of my such alert and trigger based betting is "sequential probability" .

I like this statement.

as.
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Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Offline Albalaha

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #22 on: April 27, 2021, 03:33:52 pm »
I like this statement.

as.
         Winners don't do different things, they do things differently.
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Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #23 on: April 27, 2021, 10:19:05 pm »
         Winners don't do different things, they do things differently.

Very nice quote!  :thumbsup:

as.
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Offline KungFuBac

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #24 on: April 28, 2021, 06:44:01 am »
Hi Alb

Thx for answering my question.

KFB:
"...*However, lets say we again only received 6/20 P wins in part B (2nd 20-decisions sample).
?Do you then calculate the confidence level again and retry in the very immediate next 20 decisions (i.e., Decisions 41-60)? Or do you address it with another tier of money management or wager size??  Start over?  Other?

Alb
In such cases, I would bet again with same trigger
"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

Offline KungFuBac

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #25 on: April 28, 2021, 06:59:29 am »
Winners don't do different things, they do things differently. lol

I agree AsymBacGuy--that is a catchy phrase.  I think I saw it in a book years ago by Khera: Winners Can Win  or You Can Win,...etc,  something like that.



Continued Success,




"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

Offline Albalaha

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #26 on: April 28, 2021, 02:56:16 pm »
Quote
Do you then calculate the confidence level again and retry in the very immediate next 20 decisions (i.e., Decisions 41-60)? Or do you address it with another tier of money management or wager size??  Start over?  Other?
           Every successive trigger will have better chances due to sequential probability.
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Offline PatternAnalys

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #27 on: May 04, 2021, 12:47:36 am »
I would expect at least 8 hits in further 20 consecutive trials with at least 90% certainty.
       I know even events with less than 1% probability kicks in a random game very easily but this does not hold good in the long run. I would play for +50/-100. .

Sir,
Wow!
I think this trigger with 90/10 ,should be exploit to hilt!
$hould think out, (naively? :P), a mm that win100, lose100, this shoud be our hg! :-[
Please post your suggestions, ideas, or any question, all are welcome...

Offline Albalaha

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #28 on: May 04, 2021, 08:03:22 am »
Sir,
Wow!
I think this trigger with 90/10 ,should be exploit to hilt!
$hould think out, (naively? :P), a mm that win100, lose100, this shoud be our hg! :-[

        It requires patience and access to multiple tables to get a valid trigger. Even with a 90% certainty to get 8/20, one needs to have a very reasoned MM to maximize wins and minimize losses( in case you do not get the desired number of wins). How will you play a session with 8/20 minimum assured wins?
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Offline Albalaha

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Re: Trigger based betting: pros and cons
« Reply #29 on: May 04, 2021, 12:43:09 pm »
How about this trigger?

This is again one possible trigger to start attacking casino with over 90% chance to get optimum number of minimum wins per attack. Chance of getting 30/80 is more than 95%. If you get to see a single win after 10 or more successive losses or if 2 to 5 wins are mixed with 12 to 15 losses at any point of time, this could be a great alert and we can use any WLW or WW after this alert as a valid trigger to attack further 55-65 trials targeting at least 25 wins.
      Again words of caution: Do not make it a fallacy. This will work with a dynamic MM that can win in 40% hit rates and also maintains the ratio of probable max wins and probable max losses almost equal. Remember, the 5% losing sessions should not take away wins of 95% sessions.
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