Yes!!!
I am onto something that could be termed as a Holy Grail for casino gambling for games like roulette, baccarat or any other game with fixed odds and payouts and slight house edge. I started to test it with the worst reported cases of EC in roulette and baccarat. Then I created a few hypothetical cases with 2SD, 3SD, 4SD and 5SD or even worse going below mean, for as long as 1700 continuous trials. I have beaten all, so far. I won't say that there will be no session where I would need to surrender but even the worst would not take away more than 300 chips, in total.
In manual testings, it took hours and even days of mine to compute a tough session but now I have a fully coded tracker(Still working to better it a bit, if possible), so I can evaluate any session in a few seconds.
Remember: It doesn't win the worst session while it is still worst but in long run when things go closer to mean by a predefined approach that I can play in all over betting and can swiftly win any average or below average session.
I have reasons to believe that I finally have something that beats the randomness delivering extreme variance alongwith the house edge. Please provide me any EC w/l string from real sessions that should make me surrender with -300 finally.
Just tested this dreaded session of EC and finally won a net profit. It has 141 Losses vs 94 wins i.e. -2.65 SD
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If your worst drawdown is 300 units, then your bankroll would have to be very large....if your unit bet size is $ 10 then you would need a bankroll of $ 3,000.
In baccarat ( where people bet larger ) if your unit size is $ $ 50 then you would need a bankroll of $ 15,000.
A unit size of $ 100 would need a bankroll of $ 30,000
Hmm. Rather 600 units to start with. We never know if a supertricky session may come in the beginning before it doubles.
Nice...no point in giving spin numbers though there?s no point..
It won?t give anyone anything beneficial except the results of test you give..
So I don?t see the point
Quote from: Albalaha on April 25, 2020, 09:48:40 AM
Just tested this dreaded session of EC and finally won a net profit. It has 141 Losses vs 94 wins i.e. -2.65 SD
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this is easy beaten by 10 steps marty
Quotethis is easy beaten by 10 steps marty
>:(
Hmm. Marty can beat anything with no limits. 10 step marty will bust in the 10th successive loss and we know we can even get a 25 step loss. No point in playing such rotten ideas. I told my bankroll is only 300 units and I have faced world's worst known cases so far.
QuoteSo I don't see the point
I do not see any point in any other discussion where everybody is churning failed ideas. Even after decades of being on gambling forums, people still come up with 10 step martingale. How silly is that? Just think that I am making a repository of worst looking sessions of all sorts.
Quote from: Albalaha on April 26, 2020, 03:55:37 AM
>:(
Hmm. Marty can beat anything with no limits. 10 step marty will bust in the 10th successive loss and we know we can even get a 25 step loss. No point in playing such rotten ideas. I told my bankroll is only 300 units and I have faced world's worst known cases so far.
I do not see any point in any other discussion where everybody is churning failed ideas. Even after decades of being on gambling forums, people still come up with 10 step martingale. How silly is that? Just think that I am making a repository of worst looking sessions of all sorts.
This is also beaten by 5 step martingale which start to work after 5 virtual losses.
Quote from: argalim147 on April 26, 2020, 05:39:28 AM
This is also beaten by 5 step martingale which start to work after 5 virtual losses.
Hmm. You are trying to do curve fitting upon a session. To get 5 successive losses to put your bet, at times, you might need to wait entire day and whenever you get an opportunity, still loose. I am talking of an all over playing idea where neither a 5 step martingale after 5 virtual losses nor a 10 or even 20 steps martingale will work. Had such basic things been sufficient to beat the humongous probabilities associated with the game, this would have ended 400 years ago.
Quote from: Albalaha on April 26, 2020, 07:49:16 AM
Hmm. You are trying to do curve fitting upon a session. To get 5 successive losses to put your bet, at times, you might need to wait entire day and whenever you get an opportunity, still loose. I am talking of an all over playing idea where neither a 5 step martingale after 5 virtual losses nor a 10 or even 20 steps martingale will work. Had such basic things been sufficient to beat the humongous probabilities associated with the game, this would have ended 400 years ago.
Can you beat this?
LLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLW ?
Quote from: argalim147 on April 26, 2020, 09:26:45 AM
Can you beat this?
LLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLW ?
I told very clearly that the worst can not be beaten by itself but it can be sustained and later won too. Say, it has 50 spins with 6/50 hit rate. If we get 100 more trials ahead of this with say 47/100 wins there, it should win easily. Trying to win 6/50 in itself will be a laughstock and only martingale with unlimited chips and unlimited table limit could be the only way.
Put this L/W vertically, add about 47 wins in next 100 trials, I would love to try it . By the way, I have done even worse in my https://betselection.cc/albalaha's-exclusive/an-eyeopener-challenge-and-query/ challenge already. It had 60/200 in the beginning of a very long haul session that won finally.
#2 153 LOSSES VS 106 WINS
SOMEHOW LIKE WHAT AGRALIM WANTED: BEATEN AT THE LAST WIN. OVERALL -2.4 SD. -5.46 SD IN THE FIRST 50 TRIALS WITH 5/60 WINS. KIND OF VIRTUAL LIMITS. THE SESSION HAD REGULAR UPS AND DOWNS THEREAFTER TOO. NO PATCHY OR CORRECTIVE WINS.
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I love your ideas and have been developing my game around MM too.
Based on your latest MM,
What is your biggest bet? Or what is your maximum bet capped at (how many units?)?
What is your maximum drawdown?
How many units do you win (on average) in every 100 trials?
In my latest MM,
the max bet that i have seen has been 24 units.
Maximum drawdown below 300
Average win in an average session should be 20-40 units.
Quote from: Albalaha on April 26, 2020, 05:21:13 PM
Maximum drawdown below 300
Its big enough to have a chance not to recover at all.
Quote from: argalim147 on April 27, 2020, 05:42:04 AM
Its big enough to have a chance not to recover at all.
Hmm. Too big to have!!!!!
If you want to try a game with billions of probabilities and do not have 300 or 600 chips to tackle that, you better stop playing. Even people who do advantage play(cloaking ball and wheel, bias analysis etc) keep this much chips of the highest allowed denomination.
Actually casinos are earning because of thinking like that. Ignorance of players is the biggest edge of casinos.
How many trials for an average session?
Quote from: Albalaha on April 26, 2020, 05:21:13 PM
In my latest MM,
the max bet that i have seen has been 24 units.
Maximum drawdown below 300
Average win in an average session should be 20-40 units.
Excellent job.
Now consider that in no fkng way some strategies won't reach dispersion values higher than 1.5 SD.
What's your higher bet amount here, knowing that standard unit is $1000?
Thanks
as.
Quote from: sean on April 27, 2020, 03:23:38 PM
How many trials for an average session?
This question is vague. There is nothing like an average session. We can earn and keep earning till it goes extreme South and we went defensive and try to gain back losses. If say there is a session of 100 trials and we win 48 times and lose 52 times, we should win a nice sum. May be around 20 units easily but it may vary from one session to other.
QuoteExcellent job.
Now consider that in no fkng way some strategies won't reach dispersion values higher than 1.5 SD.
What's your higher bet amount here, knowing that standard unit is $1000?
Thanks
as.
1.5 SD in 30 trials is like: 10 wins in 30 trials while in 100 trials 40/100 could be 1.5 SD. In such cases, bets should hardly go to 8 units max. Give me any such session and I will let you know the max bet/drawdown etc. The core idea is winning in a little below average times, a little more than the house edge. We do not even try to win the extreme bad ones. My MM has inbuilt safeguards to sustain the worst and win thereafter in a near average case.
#3 ANOTHER BRUTAL SESSION: 219 LOSSES VS 154 WINS BEATEN WITH MAX BET=12 UNITS
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#4: This 1.5 sd case was beaten with 5 units max bet: 20 Wins vs 33 Losses
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Quote from: Albalaha on April 28, 2020, 01:22:04 PM
#4: This 1.5 sd case was beaten with 5 units max bet: 20 Wins vs 33 Losses
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There are endless possible bad session combinations. Do you want to test it all? Then you need 100 years and more. For sure, one of the baddest combinations will be this...can you beat it? LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLW LLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLW .....its 100 percent that in all infinity combinations will be this...and you can't it beat.
Quote from: argalim147 on April 28, 2020, 05:43:28 PM
There are endless possible bad session combinations. Do you want to test it all? Then you need 100 years and more. For sure, one of the baddest combinations will be this...can you beat it? LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLW LLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLW .....its 100 percent that in all infinity combinations will be this...and you can't it beat.
Randomness has its limitations like 26/100 etc. I already worked such sessions when I encountered 60/200. All of them win finally but not when they are at their worst but gradually. You should read the law of large numbers that says that although a very short session could deliver crazy variance, in long run it gets close to the mean. I have played with much more data than one may imagine. Try to find a real session with the worst of the data possible persisting the longest. I would love to do that.
#4: Although I believe it is impossible to get a session like that but upon the insistence of agralim, I test this session and won with 12 units max bet too. Insane 155 losses and 76 wins: -4.78 SD overall and -7.31 SD in the first 100 trials.
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What's the maximum drawdown for the session above?
I am respectfully amazed with the passion shown by the contributors here under this topic. As time went by, I just want to respectfully clarify if the participants do play in a real live game be it online or B&M or are these all on paper so to speak?
I just need clarification becos in my many years of gaming, I think the single most important thing that determines a winner is emotions. It?s tremendous difficult to control oneself when you are losing 5-6 bets in a row. Whatever strategy must take that into account in real life situations. These days, I try (let me emphasise that, TRY) to walk away and refrain from further bets if I lose 3 out of my last 4 bets. No exceptions. No negative Martingales.
To draw an analogy. During this pandemic crisis, if one is in the airline industry or the hotel industry with the new normal and business is down, do you push on with expansion plans anticipating business will resume sooner or later (a win will come sooner or later)? Or do you hunker down n wait it out?
Quote from: sean on April 29, 2020, 02:51:32 AM
What's the maximum drawdown for the session above?
-98
Quote from: Lungyeh on April 29, 2020, 04:59:16 AM
I am respectfully amazed with the passion shown by the contributors here under this topic. As time went by, I just want to respectfully clarify if the participants do play in a real live game be it online or B&M or are these all on paper so to speak?
I just need clarification becos in my many years of gaming, I think the single most important thing that determines a winner is emotions. It?s tremendous difficult to control oneself when you are losing 5-6 bets in a row. Whatever strategy must take that into account in real life situations. These days, I try (let me emphasise that, TRY) to walk away and refrain from further bets if I lose 3 out of my last 4 bets. No exceptions. No negative Martingales.
To draw an analogy. During this pandemic crisis, if one is in the airline industry or the hotel industry with the new normal and business is down, do you push on with expansion plans anticipating business will resume sooner or later (a win will come sooner or later)? Or do you hunker down n wait it out?
I do play regularly online. Land based casinos are far away and can not be done on day to day basis and requires a "planned casino tour". I used to have accounts with more than 200 online casinos which have shrunk to 5-6 these days as many have removed accounts from my country including my favorites like ladbrokes, paddypower etc. Regarding emotional elements of playing game in tough times, I would say it all depends upon your performance. Most people lack any idea of how to win in the long run so being scared is obvious. It took me over a decade to finalize an unbeatable looking methodology or money management specially meant for EC bets. I had better than average ideas to play and win years ago but they were not conclusive. If you know that you are destined to win if you follow a fixed set of rules, why will you distract?
Hello Albalaha, I'm new in this forum but I read carefully your very interesting topic.
I have a 1000 spins session for you (roulette game randomly generated with excel). Could you try this one ? I attach the file.
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[/reveal]
Quote from: hgwen on April 29, 2020, 11:32:11 AM
Hello Albalaha, I'm new in this forum but I read carefully your very interesting topic.
I have a 1000 spins session for you (roulette game randomly generated with excel). Could you try this one ? I attach the file.
It wins swiftly. Tell me the spin number from where you think if we start betting, can not win?
From spin 101 to spin 400 or 500
I spotted the worst time to start . #143. It took me 600 spins to win it finally. Max bet=24 units.
:nod:
268 Wins vs 333 Losses almost -2SD overall. L/W of the worst stretch looks like:
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Nice ! And what's the maximum drawdown ?
Albalaha, did you post your betting scheme or is that's something you're keeping to yourself?
Thanks
QuoteAlbalaha, did you post your betting scheme or is that's something you're keeping to yourself?
Thanks
This is no betting scheme to try for fun. I m looking for most stringent real sessions to work upon and see its potential. So far, it is unbeatable to any data I could put my hands upon. I m also checking if it can still be bettered.
For this particular session that took 600 spins, how many units did u win?
How many mini stop losses were there?
Quote from: Albalaha on April 29, 2020, 12:28:38 PM
-222
We win a net profit till the end of the session shown as LW for me as I did not compute sessions before that or after that. There are number of mini losses that I did not count. I know it had to win, sooner or later.
I've made a roulette simulator (excel file with macros). You can simulate 1000 spins and see how each EC performs.
When you find an interesting session, you can save it (and test it with your method).
I saved one tough session for you in the file.
Excel RNG is not good one. better refer to random.org or work upon real session data. Your data has simple bad stretches which has easier recoveries than my posted sessions. Come up with real data, if you can.
Quote from: Albalaha on April 30, 2020, 04:39:25 PM
Excel RNG is not good one. better refer to random.org or work upon real session data. Your data has simple bad stretches which has easier recoveries than my posted sessions. Come up with real data, if you can.
Ok.
You should pass this one from random.org like the others but it's a bad one from spin 101 to spin 400.
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W[/reveal]
Hi,
I think, bet EC, is risky,
since, worst in 100spins may only had 30hit, and worst ever 200spins=69/200spins
below, a bet selection, that bet in matrix4,
say, roulette,
bet RED for 4spins,
if win a spins, sit out,don't bet the rest.
If lose all four, change to bet BBBB.
Quote from: Albalaha on April 29, 2020, 11:58:36 AM
I spotted the worst time to start . #143. It took me 600 spins to win it finally. Max bet=24 units.
:nod:
268 Wins vs 333 Losses almost -2SD overall. L/W of the worst stretch looks like:
-----------------------
bet in 4increment,
sit out the remaining spin if win.
let say,
L=banker
w=player
bet 4HAND(wwww),
if lose all four, then bet (LLLL)
X=lose
h=hit
bet 4spin (wwww)
Lx
Lx
Lx
Lx lose all
next bet 4spin(wwww)
W hit
L nb
L nb
L nb
W hit
L nb
Wnb
Lnb
L x
L x
W hit
L nb
L x
L x
L x
L x next bet (LLLL)
W x
L hit
W nb
L nb
Wx
L hit
L
W
W x
W x
W x
L hit
W x
L hit
L
L
W x
L hit
L
L
L hit
L
W
L
L hit
L
W
W
W x
W x
L hit
W
L hit
L nb
L
L
W x
W x
L hit
L
L hit
L
L
L
L hit
W
L
L
W x
W x
W x
L hit
W x
L hit
L
W
W x
L hit
L
W
L hit
L
L
L
W x
L hit
L
W
W x
L hit
L
L
L hit
L
L
L
L hit
L
L
L
W x
L hit
W
L
L hit
W
W
L
W x
L hit
L
L
W x
W x
L hit
W
W x
L hit
W
W
W x
L hit
W
W
L hit
L
L
W
W x
L hit
W
L
L hit
W
W
W
L hit
W
W
L
W x
L hit
W
W
L hit
L
L
L
W x
L hit
L
L
L hit
W
W
L
L hit
L
L
L
L hit
W
W
W
L hit
W
W
L
W x
L hit
L
L
L hit
W
L
L
L hit
L
W
L
W x
L hit
L
W
L hit
L
W
L
L hit
W
L
L
L hit
W
W
L
L hit
L
L
W
W x
L hit
L
W
L hit
L
L
L
L hit
L
L
W
L hit
L
W
L
L hit
L
L
L
L hit
L
W
W
W x
L hit
L
L
L hit
W
L
L
W x
L hit
W
W
L hit
W
L
W
L hit
L
L
L
W x
L hit
W
L
L hit
W
L
L
W x
W x
W x
L hit
L hit
L
W
L
L hit
L
W
W
L hit
W
L
W
L hit
L
W
W
L hit
W
W
L
L hit
W
W
L
W x
W x
L hit
W
L hit
W
L
W
L hit
L
L
W
L hit
L
W
L
W x
W x
L hit
W
W x
W x
L hit
W
L hit
W
L
L
W x
L hit
L
W
L hit
W
W
W
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
W x
L hit
L
W x
L hit
W
L
L hit
W
W
L
L hit
W
L
W
L hit
W
L
L
L hit
W
L
L
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
L hit
L
L
L hit
W
L
L
W x
L hit
L
L
L hit
W
L
L
W x
L
L
L
L hit
L
L
L
L hit
L
W
W
W x
W x
L hit
W
L hit
L
L
W
L hit
W
L
W
L hit
W
L
W
W x
L hit
L
W
L hit
W
L
W
L hit
W
W
W
L hit
L
W
L
W x
W x
W x
L hit
L hit
L
W
W
L hit
W
W
W
W x
W x
W x
L hit
L hit
L
L
W
W x
W x
L hit
L
L hit
W
W
L
L hit
W
W
W
W x
L hit
L
L
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
W x
L hit
W
L hit
L
L
W
W x
L hit
L
L
W x
L hit
L
L
W x
L hit
L
W
L hit
W
W
W
L hit
W
W
W
L hit
L
L
W
L hit
W
L
W
L hit
L
W
W
L hit
L
W
W
W x
W x
W x
L hit
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
L hit
L
L
W x
L hit
W
W
L hit
W
W
W
W x
W x
W x
L hit
L hit
W
L
W
W x
W x
L hit
L
W x
L hit
W
L
L hit
W
L
W
W x
L hit
L
L
W x
L hit
L
L
W x
L hit
L
W
L hit
L
W
W
L hit
L
W
W
L hit
W
W
W
W x
W x
L hit
W
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
W x
L hit
L
W x
W x
W x
L hit
W x
W x
W x
W x bet(wwww)
W hit
W
L
L
W hit
L
W
L
W hit
W
W
L
W hit
W
W
W
L x
W hit
W
L
L x
W hit
W
L
W hit
Quote from: PatternAnalys on May 02, 2020, 12:14:29 PM
Hi,
I think, bet EC, is risky,
since, worst in 100spins may only had 30hit, and worst ever 200spins=69/200spins
below, a bet selection, that bet in matrix4,
say, roulette,
bet RED for 4spins,
if win a spins, sit out,don't bet the rest.
If lose all four, change to bet BBBB.
No way of picking/filtering bet could give you safe times to win always. You better learn to fight the worst instead of dreaming of getting a bet that will never go too bad. That made me work on all over playing approaches and I can win passing through even the worst. Even if I get say after 10 millions spins of play a time to lose -300 somehow, I won't mind.
Pattern Analysis....thanks for posting the method in 2 posts above...however you should have used B for Banker and P for Player in baccarat instead of W and L ...using W and L is confusing since W usually means a win and L usually means a loss.
[/quote]
Hi 8OR9,
That LW, are Albalaha's
extreme win lose.
I just try, to think a way,
to avoid EXTREME variance, in EC bet by, alternating bet, when "one side sleep", and also when "both side hit math expectation".
So, either, 'one side sleep', or 'both side active', we avoid extreme variance.
below another a
Albalaha's extreme, that I try to avoid "extreme".
Quote from: Albalaha on April 28, 2020, 01:01:47 PM
#3 ANOTHER BRUTAL SESSION: 219 LOSSES VS 154 WINS BEATEN WITH MAX BET=12 UNITS
bet in increment four,
(LLLLL) or
(WWWW)
alternate when lose all four.
x=lose
h=hit.
when hit,
sit out the rest.
bet (wwww)
Lx
Lx
Lx
Lx lose 4,
next bet (LLLL)
W x=lose
L hit
L
L
L hit
L nb
L nb
L nb
L hit
W
L
L
L hit
L
L
L
L hit
L nb
L nb
L nb
L hit
L
L
L
W x
L hit
L
L
L hit
L
W
L
L hit
L
W
W
L hit
L
W
L
L hit
L
L
L
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
L hit
W
W
L hit
L
W
L
L hit
L
L
L
W x
L hit
W
L
L hit
W
L
L
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
L hit
L
L
L hit
W
L
W
L hit
W
W
L
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
W x
L hit
W
L hit
L
W
L
W x
L hit
W
W
L hit
W
L
L
W x
L hit
L
W
L hit
L
W
L
W x
L hit
W
W
L hit
W
L
L
W x
L hit
L
W
L hit
W
L
W
L hit
W
L
W
W x
L hit
W
L
L hit
W
L
L
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
L hit
W
L
L hit
L
L
L
L hit
W
L
L
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
L hit
L
W
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
L hit
L
W
L hit
W
L
W
L hit
L
W
L
L hit
W
L
L
L hit
L
L
L
W x
L hit
W
W
L hit
W
L
W
L hit
W
L
W
L hit
W
W
L
W x
L hit
L
L
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
W x
L hit
L
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
L hit
L
W
L hit
L
L
W
L hit
W
W
L
W x
W x
L hit
L
L hit
L
L
W
L hit
W
W
W
L hit
W
L
W
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
L hit
W
W
L hit
L
W
L
W x
L hit
W
L
L hit
W
L
L
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
L hit
W
W
L hit
L
W
L
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
L hit
W
W
W x
L hit
L
L
L hit
L
L
W
L hit
W
L
W
W x
W x
L hit
W
L hit
W
L
W
W x
L hit
W
W
L hit
W
L
L
L hit
L
L
L
W x
L hit
L
W
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
W x
W x
L hit
W x
L hit
W
L
L hit
W
L
W
L hit
W
W
L
L hit
L
W
L
W x
W x
L hit
W
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
L hit
W
L
W x
here another Albalaha's extreme,
which bet through filter.
Quote from: Albalaha on April 25, 2020, 09:48:40 AM
Just tested this dreaded session of EC and finally won a net profit. It has 141 Losses vs 94 wins i.e. -2.65 SD
_________________
here bet
(wwww)if lose all 4spins/hands,
bet (LLLL)
h=hit
x=lose
_______________
bet (wwww)
L x1
L x2
L x3
L x4=lose all4,
next bet(LLLL)
W x5=lose
L hit1
L
L
L hit2
L
L
W
L hit3
L
L
L
Wx6
L hit4
L
L
L hit5
L
L
L
L hit6
W
L
L
L hit7
L
L
W
L hit8
L
L
W
L hit9
L
W
L
W x7
L hit10
L
W
W x8
L hit11
W
L
L hit12
L
W
L
L hit13
W
L
W
L hit14
W
L
W
L hit15
W
L
W
W x9
L hit16
W
L
W x10
L hit17
L
W
L hit18
W
W
L
L hit19
W
L
W
L hit20
W
L
L
L hit21
L
W
L
L hit22
L
W
L
W x11
L hit23
W
L
L hit24
W
L
L
W x12
L hit25
W
W
L hit26
W
W
L
W x13
L hit27
L
L
L hit28
L
L
L
W x14
L hit29
W
L
W x15
L hit30
L
W
L hit31
W
W
L
W x16
L hit32
W
W
W x17
L hit33
W
L
L hit34
W
L
W
L hit35
L
W
W
L hit36
W
L
L
L hit37
L
W
L
W x18
W x19
L hit38
W
L hit39
W
L
W
L hit40
W
L
W
W x20
W x
L hit41
W
L hit42
W
L
L
L hit43
W
L
W
L hit44
L
W
L
W x21
L hit45
W
L
W x22
L hit46
W
L
W x23
L hit47
L
L
W x24
L hit48
W
W
L hit49
W
L
W
L hit50
L
L
W
L hit51
W
W
L
W x25
L hit52
L
L
W x26
L hit53
W
W
L hit54
W
L
L
L hit55
L
W
L
W x27
W x28
L hit56
W
L hit57
L
W
L
W x29
L hit58
W
@patternanalysis,
It is easy to find how to bet after seeing a session. If you wait for LLLL to make a bet, you will averagely make one bet after 16 spins and in worst cases your one bet could take you upto 300 spins of waiting too. It still won't make you any safe. That is the beauty of randomness. I wonder that even after decades on forums, people still have childish ideas to play.
another Albalaha's extreme, bet through filter
Quote from: Albalaha on April 26, 2020, 11:36:00 AM
#2 153 LOSSES VS 106 WINS
SOMEHOW LIKE WHAT AGRALIM WANTED: BEATEN AT THE LAST WIN. OVERALL -2.4 SD. -5.46 SD IN THE FIRST 50 TRIALS WITH 5/60 WINS. KIND OF VIRTUAL LIMITS. THE SESSION HAD REGULAR UPS AND DOWNS THEREAFTER TOO. NO PATCHY OR CORRECTIVE WINS.
bet (wwww)(LLLL)
L x
L x
L x
L x lose all4,
next bet (LLLL)
L h
L
L
L
L h
L
L
L
L h
L
L
L
L h
L
L
L
L h
L
L
L
L h
L
L
L
L h
W
L
L
W x
L h
L
W
L h
W
L
L
L h
L
L
L
L h
W
L
L
L h
L
W
L
W x
W x
W x
L h
L h
W
L
L
L h
L
W
L
W x
W x 10
L h
W
L h
W
W
W
L h
W
L
W
P? x
L h
L
W
L h 20
W
W
L
W x
L h
W
L
W x
L h
W
W
L h
W
L
L
W x
L h
W
L
L h
W
L
L
W x
W x
L h
W
L h
L
L
W
L h
W
L
W
W x
L h
W
L
W x
L h
W
L
L h
W
W
W
W x
L h
W
L
W x 20
L h
L
W
L h
L
W
L
W x
W x
L h
W
L h
W
L
L
W x
L h
W
L
L h
L
L
L
L h
W
L
W
W x
L h 40
W
W
L h
W
W
L
W x
L h
W
W
L h
W
L
L
W x
L h
L
W
W x
L h
W
L
L h
L
L
L
L h
L
L
W
L h
W
W
L
W x
L h
W
L
L h
W
L
L
W x
L h
W
W
L h
W
L
W
L h
W
L
W
W x
W x
L h
W
L h
W
W
L
W x
L h
W
L
W x
L h
W
W
L h
W
L
L
L h
W
L
L
W x
W x
L h
W
L h
W
L
L
W x
L h
W
L
W x
W x
L h
W
L h 64
W
L
W
Dear Albalaha,
Sir,
With due respect.
I think, since, it,
the extreme variance,
kills everyone br,
and previous profits too...
Then, my main purpose,
is not, to look for,
an EDGE, but to avoid
EXTREME VARIANCE.
We need to seek any
possible way,
to avoid going through it.
Quote from: PatternAnalys on May 03, 2020, 07:41:50 AM
Dear Albalaha,
Sir,
With due respect.
I think, since, it,
the extreme variance,
kills everyone br,
and previous profits too...
Then, my main purpose,
is not, to look for,
an EDGE, but to avoid
EXTREME VARIANCE.
We need to seek any
possible way,
to avoid going through it.
You can not avoid variance by doing anything like this. Even if you bet once in 100 trials you may still get 10 successive losses. Learn to face the variance as it is beyond your control to avoid it altogether.
Quote from: hgwen on April 30, 2020, 06:10:57 PM
Ok.
You should pass this one from random.org like the others but it's a bad one from spin 101 to spin 400.
[reveal]W
L
W
L
L
L
W
W
L
W
L
L
W
W
W
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
W
W
W
L
L
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
W
L
L
W
L
L
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L
W
L
W
W
L
L
W
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L
L
L
L
L
W
L
W
W
W
L
L
L
W
W
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
W
W
L
W
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
W
W
L
W
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
L
W
W
L
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W
L
L
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L
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L
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L
L
L
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W
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L
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L
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L
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L
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L
L
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L
W
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L
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L
W
L
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L
W
W
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W
L
L
L
L
L
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W
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L
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L
L
L
L
L
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W
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L
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W
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L
L
L
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L
W
L
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L
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L
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L
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L
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
L
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L
L
L
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W
L
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L
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L
W
L
L
L
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L
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L
L
L
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L
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@Albalaha, did you test this session?
Quote from: Albalaha on April 15, 2020, 12:27:16 PM
53 losses vs 37 wins: (how does such sessions go with your MM)?
bet (wwww), if lose all 4 ,bet next (LLLL)
X=lose
h=hit
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bet (wwww)
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next bet (LLLL)
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Hi Albalaha,
You recommend a bankroll of 300/600units
What is the number of units that you recommend as mini stop losses?
Mini Stop losses could be defined as per your comfort level. I define it as 5 more losses than wins. For example LLLWWLLLLLLLLL
here LLLWWLLLLLLLLL red colored area defines an MSL for me. Size of unit or count may vary depending upon your progression.
Quote from: hgwen on April 30, 2020, 06:10:57 PM
Ok.
You should pass this one from random.org like the others but it's a bad one from spin 101 to spin 400.
It was tough from #105 and it took 621 bets to beat it with a net profit thereafter. Horrible losses all over:
268 Wins vs 355 LossesL
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do you mean that in the first 621 bets, you are in negative units and only reaches positive units after bet 621?
what was the net profit in units after bet 621?
what do you do after each mini stop loss? do u consider it as a loss or do you include the losses (from the mini stop loss) as part of subsequent bets for recovery?
Quote from: Albalaha on May 04, 2020, 03:32:43 AM
Mini Stop losses could be defined as per your comfort level. I define it as 5 more losses than wins. For example LLLWWLLLLLLLLL
here LLLWWLLLLLLLLL red colored area defines an MSL for me. Size of unit or count may vary depending upon your progression.
Quote from: sean on May 04, 2020, 08:05:13 AM
what do you do after each mini stop loss? do u consider it as a loss or do you include the losses (from the mini stop loss) as part of subsequent bets for recovery?
Mini Stop loss stops my progression for a win target. I try to earn ahead afresh than pushing to win back of the lost sum of MSL. Pushing to win too bad times give us irreparable loss. It is a complex methodology to avoid the worst outcomes, in any eventuality. Thos playing a 10 step martingale can't even comprehend this even slightly.
Do you mean that you increase the value of one unit after your mini stop loss?
Quote from: Albalaha on May 04, 2020, 09:46:05 AM
Mini Stop loss stops my progression for a win target. I try to earn ahead afresh than pushing to win back of the lost sum of MSL. Pushing to win too bad times give us irreparable loss. It is a complex methodology to avoid the worst outcomes, in any eventuality. Thos playing a 10 step martingale can't even comprehend this even slightly.
How many units do you win with a session like this?
Quote from: Albalaha on May 04, 2020, 05:18:06 AM
It was tough from #105 and it took 621 bets to beat it with a net profit thereafter. Horrible losses all over: 268 Wins vs 355 Losses
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Quote from: sean on May 04, 2020, 12:00:56 PM
How many units do you win with a session like this?
Just a net profit in the given stretch.
That's real interesting, but I guess that in order to recover any deficit you need W's coming in short intervals after the strongest L bad situations happened.
But say the "enemy" knows in detail your plan, thus rigging the game you're playing at.
Do you have any escape plans?
Thanks.
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 05, 2020, 09:33:03 PM
That's real interesting, but I guess that in order to recover any deficit you need W's coming in short intervals after the strongest L bad situations happened.
But say the "enemy" knows in detail your plan, thus rigging the game you're playing at.
Do you have any escape plans?
Thanks.
as.
Expectation of Clustering or clumping wins or compensatory wins is wrong even after the worst possible so my methodology doesn't look for one. If you see my worst 800, it has first 200 bets with 60 wins only, rest 400 has 186 wins only and the last 200 bets has 99 Wins. Thus, it only confirms to regression towards Mean and law of large numbers and there is nothing to compensate and no wins in big clusters. It still won without going -300 ever.
Regarding, a rigged casino, I do not believe it to be so easy and I do not ever try to win huge in EC bets so there is no room for rigging results only for me. That could be done for a martingale player. Playing on unrealistic premises is wrong by default.
I created this methodology primarily to beat "Player" bet of Baccarat in an all over game. So far, it is unbeatable even in the worst found stretches. I believe that I can sustain now even if there is an unbelievable case of 1/50 or anything alike.
Quote from: Albalaha on May 04, 2020, 05:18:06 AM
It was tough from #105 and it took 621 bets to beat it with a net profit thereafter. Horrible losses all over: 268 Wins vs 355 Losses
Impressive ! That was a tough session.
If I summarize the clues you already gave :
1. Start with a 0,1 labby
2. Stop betting when you have 5 mores losses than wins (Mini stop loss).
3. Accept the loss and restart betting the next spin with a new 0,1 labby.
4. Stop betting in certain conditions and restart after.
Wich conditions and when do you restart ?5. Increase the base labby in certain conditions.
Wich conditions and how much do you increase the labby ?...
Thanks hgwen, I don't follow this thread with a lot of detail but your summarization helps me understand his MM.
J
Quote from: Albalaha on May 06, 2020, 03:31:51 AM
Expectation of Clustering or clumping wins or compensatory wins is wrong even after the worst possible so my methodology doesn't look for one. If you see my worst 800, it has first 200 bets with 60 wins only, rest 400 has 186 wins only and the last 200 bets has 99 Wins. Thus, it only confirms to regression towards Mean and law of large numbers and there is nothing to compensate and no wins in big clusters. It still won without going -300 ever.
Regarding, a rigged casino, I do not believe it to be so easy and I do not ever try to win huge in EC bets so there is no room for rigging results only for me. That could be done for a martingale player. Playing on unrealistic premises is wrong by default.
I created this methodology primarily to beat "Player" bet of Baccarat in an all over game. So far, it is unbeatable even in the worst found stretches. I believe that I can sustain now even if there is an unbelievable case of 1/50 or anything alike.
Ok, thanks.
Regarding baccarat, how many shoes on average do you expect to be behind when strong negative conditions are met? (Say 4 sigma or higher deviations)
Thanks again.
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 06, 2020, 09:30:25 PM
Ok, thanks.
Regarding baccarat, how many shoes on average do you expect to be behind when strong negative conditions are met? (Say 4 sigma or higher deviations)
Thanks again.
as.
There could be many probabilities in the long run. At one in a million bad case, it may drag upto 10 shoes or even more but normally 1-2 shoes is enough to conclude. I believe that playing uninterrupted for long stretches is not required.
QuoteImpressive ! That was a tough session.
If I summarize the clues you already gave :
1. Start with a 0,1 labby
2. Stop betting when you have 5 mores losses than wins (Mini stop loss).
3. Accept the loss and restart betting the next spin with a new 0,1 labby.
4. Stop betting in certain conditions and restart after. Which conditions and when do you restart ?
5. Increase the base labby in certain conditions. Which conditions and how much do you increase the labby ?
...
Hmm. You knew the core that I elaborated. Now, think how to move ahead yourself and create an HG for yourself, if you can. I am ready to tell fundamentals whenever required. There could be many ways to do that.
80 Wins vs 124 Losses. Superbad first 50 bets. Yet recovered and won without much fuss.
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It is not quite good
to bet "fixed RED",
since we know,
great negative extreme
variance, will hit, after, few
easy sessions...
and then drawdown,
to -300u, just impossible,
to play in bm casino, except,
online with cents or a dollar
minimum.
We must have a bet selection,
that is fluid, by, changing side,
to take advantage, the other
side of negative; the positive
extreme variance.
But, people may screaming
their lung out,
and bulging eyes,
that its impossible!
But just because,
I cannot find, that bet selection,
I simply
cannot shriek
"ignorant!" toward others!
QuoteIt is not quite good
to bet "fixed RED",
since we know,
great negative extreme
variance, will hit, after, few
easy sessions...
and then drawdown,
to -300u, just impossible,
to play
OK and if you play a bet by changing it then you will not get great negative variance? Who tells you this? It seems you lack the skills/trackers to simulate and understand the reality. Once you get that you will know that no way of playing saves you from going extreme bad temporarily and occasionally. Better work on a durable MM than looking for magically safe bet.
Quote from: Albalaha on May 07, 2020, 03:08:03 AM
Hmm. You knew the core that I elaborated. Now, think how to move ahead yourself and create an HG for yourself, if you can. I am ready to tell fundamentals whenever required. There could be many ways to do that.
It's quite challenging but ok I can try if you're ok to help me (and I think i'm not the only one interested ^-^ ).
Could you please show a tough session with max bet, max drawdown, numers of bets, wins, losses and a clear graph ? It will be very helpful to understand your method.
Thank you!
Quote from: hgwen on May 07, 2020, 11:20:12 AM
It's quite challenging but ok I can try if you're ok to help me (and I think i'm not the only one interested ^-^ ).
Could you please show a tough session with max bet, max drawdown, numers of bets, wins, losses and a clear graph ? It will be very helpful to understand your method.
Thank you!
OK. Try the last 124:80 session.
graph: max bet: 15 units worst drawdown: -77
[attachimg=1]
Dear Albalaha,
Sir,
One pertinent question.
What the ratio of
Extreme vs within-math
seasons.
or in 100seasons,
how many seasons, averages,
are the extreme seasons?
Thanks.
Quote from: PatternAnalys on May 07, 2020, 11:47:59 AM
Dear Albalaha,
Sir,
One pertinent question.
What the ratio of
Extreme vs within-math
seasons.
or in 100seasons,
how many seasons, averages,
are the extreme seasons?
Thanks.
10% sessions always seem to disturb us with variance which could range from 1 SD to 5 SD.
IMPOSSIBLE SESSION : 23/100 in the first 100 bets and no win for 50 consecutive bets. 99 Wins and 162 losses
Won with max bet=4 only. Unbelievable but true. :thumbsup:
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Hi Albalaha, you remember my LW s strategys to avoid sometimes
long Ls streaks......Still ok for me combined with good MM, up when win
and only if necesary,and reduce bets when start to go down.
Must cut losses when possible , in special when long Ls streak.
In this your session i used Levels each have 3 steps,
and W or L3 stop, wait virtual W (only after L3)
Even if i can t win every and each session, many
sessions winners.
One example of possible bad run: W(TR) is trigger
LLLLLW(TR)L1L2L3W(TR)L1L2 WIN L1L2L3 W(TR)L1L2L3 W(TR) L1L2L3.....ETC...
the losses would be many times at the first Level(s) so no big damage.
Now your session,
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@Kattila ,
You said:
QuoteHi Albalaha, you remember my LW s strategys to avoid sometimes
long Ls streaks......Still ok for me combined with good MM, up when win
and only if necesary,and reduce bets when start to go down.
Must cut losses when possible , in special when long Ls streak.
In this your session i used Levels each have 3 steps,
and W or L3 stop, wait virtual W (only after L3)
Even if i can t win every and each session, many
sessions winners.
Triggers and/or pauses don't help in real world. They can only prolong your wait time and bet time without giving you any real advantage, in the long run. When you see session like what I provided above, your approach may look very pragmatic while such sessions are rare. LLLLLLLLLLLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLW type of things could take millions of spins to show just once. We need to have "one key fits all" approach and not curve fitting thing. Going "pause" after first three losses is an age old formula to avoid a very long streak but in cases like LLLLWLLLWLLLLLLWLLWLLLWLLLLWLLLLLW you still got successive losses. A good MM is easier said than done. Tell me the best MM you ever used. You will get irreparable losses with that in a little bad session. You do not need extraordinary sessions to lose and your losses will not be at par with your wins in winning session.
What we actually need is an approach that can sustain even 1 in a billion case. You can see a streak of 50 successive losses of an EC in one of my sessions. I not just sustained that but got at a net profit without needing "helpful cluster of wins" thereafter with Max bet=4 units only. Similarly I sustained a never witnessed 60/200 sessions playing all over and without any astronomical bet size or bankroll. I have yet to see -300 stop loss even with sessions with 5SD below mean or worse. I know, there can be a session that will breach -300 one day but given the probability to see one such session vs winning sessions, I should be able to play without any irreparable loss. That is my vision and approach.
LLLLWLLLWLLLLLLWLLWLLLWLLLLWLLLLLW
Yes like i said that can hit sometimes , for that i use stop lose.
It all about lost sessions Vs won sessions, and meanwhile the
W sessions beats the losing ones that is what really matter.
And some bet selections are little better than others (like RB, OE ,HL)
if the base is on human factor (dealer).
Stop Loss limits your loss per session. It doesn't make you a winner. Further, any progression makes you lose good enough which can not be recovered with small wins. You can never predict what you are going to lose in a session. You can only limit your bankroll.
None can predict what s next, and none progression (including your) , betselection, MM, can survive to the
very long run ( x xxx xxx) .
**You can never predict what you are going to lose in a session. You can only limit your bankroll.**
Not predict but , i know i will not lose more than my stop lose, and with the LW s strategys i do cut many
losses, if i don t use it then many sessions would be much worst.
See chart, if i play this session with or without LWs( enter / exit points) it s the same final result?
Even if i lose the sesssion , it s limited lose. So is not useless.
Play what is temporaly hot (keep update) , try avoid losses, use moderate progressions, that is
my way.
green .....enter point
black......exit point
I do not need to predict to win. I can play all over and finally come out winner even in the sessions as harsh as never happened earlier.
Money management makes the difference. I have yet to see any session that makes me surrender with -300 among millions of roulette and baccarat data I have. That is why I say that randomness could be beaten even in the long run.
One question,
what is your base unit size .....0,01 ? (online) . If so you have a 30.000 units bankroll, easy to not lose that .
If not , then good for you, go make some millions.
Quote from: Kattila on May 08, 2020, 03:28:44 PM
One question,
what is your base unit size .....0,01 ? (online) . If so you have a 30.000 units bankroll, easy to not lose that .
If not , then good for you, go make some millions.
We need 300 units to handle most possible cases but being cautious start with 600 units. Unit size depends upon one's bankroll capacity and permitted table and bet limits. Theoretically casino earns 2.5 units in 100 bets. In the same manner expect upto 5 units net profit averagely per 100 bets betting an EC, sensibly. Now if someone plays with 1 cent bets, he should expect to win 25-50 cents a day max. Winning a million might then take 10,000 years only. If we raise our unit size to a respectable 10 Euros/USD, then we have a nice income per day: 250 to 500 euros a day. Thinking of a million capitalizing that could then be doable in a few years realistically but not overnight.
ok :thumbsup:
About my example bad run .....LLLLLW(TR)L1L2L3W(TR)L1L2 WIN L1L2L3 W(TR)L1L2L3 W(TR) L1L2L3.....ETC...
I have found the solution few years back, it s the betselection and i have many sessions without
even seen 3 Ls in row ( L1L2L3) and others with only few L3 with no power to damage the sessions.
Not tested long run(no skills) , tested before play around 30 000 spins, then after play more than
20 000 spins still ok.
50K spins are nothing in terms of testing. If you think you will be ahead with what you have been doing, I would say Goodluck.
Encountered a very tough looking session, specially, in the beginning. First 50 trials were ultra tough and later no clumping or compensating wins but usual below average session. 128 Wins vs 175 losses. -2.23 SD overall. How many of you think of winning such sessions with a realistic bankroll? Worst -47, max bet= 6 units.
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What's the overall profit in terms of units in the end?
Quote from: sean on May 26, 2020, 09:25:22 AM
What's the overall profit in terms of units in the end?
Just a net profit from 1 to 4 units in all such extremely horrible sessions. These are no ordinary ones. In an average session of 100 trials, I can fetch upto 25 units easily with the same methodology. These sessions can not be beaten flat nor by any playable martingale or any published MM idea ever. If you have ever heard of any MM that can handle these sessions with a reasonable bankroll and max bet units, please let us all know.
Ladies and gentlemen! Presenting a session directly from hell which I believe to be unheard and unseen forever. First 100 trials have only 16 wins. Another super bad stretch in the middle of the session of 50 trials. Overall 245 Wins vs 345 Losses. It won with 6 units max bet, Worst balance=-100. No compensatory or clumping wins.
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Hi Albalaha, can you kindly show us the number of units gained/loss during each bet/hand?
Quote from: sean on May 26, 2020, 04:11:29 PM
Hi Albalaha, can you kindly show us the number of units gained/loss during each bet/hand?
Lol. You want to know how I bet? Sorry, can't help you that way but could give you a graph of how my bankroll moved, if you want that. If you have any true tough session for an EC, put the LW of that.
Hi, of course I wasn't expecting you to tell me how you bet. That will be unreasonable. I was curious about how the size of each bet changes over time (i.e. When u hit max bet). I can only see how the bankroll changes over time but is more interested in how the size of each bet changes over time.
Another question is that you have been posting multiple horrible sessions but the method used to overcome those sessions are exactly the same or have your method improvised over time? I noticed that some supposedly easier sessions have higher max bet while the tougher ones have lower max bet.
Quote from: sean on May 27, 2020, 08:02:23 AM
Hi, of course I wasn't expecting you to tell me how you bet. That will be unreasonable. I was curious about how the size of each bet changes over time (i.e. When u hit max bet). I can only see how the bankroll changes over time but is more interested in how the size of each bet changes over time.
Another question is that you have been posting multiple horrible sessions but the method used to overcome those sessions are exactly the same or have your method improvised over time? I noticed that some supposedly easier sessions have higher max bet while the tougher ones have lower max bet.
In my most recent way, I could opt a max bet of 6 or 12 whichever suits me( while in earlier version there was no such limit), so it can not surpass that, come what may. I have improvised my method a bit but then I recheck all sessions, if they still hold or not. The core idea has been same and just tried to make it more playable.
ANOTHER SESSION: 93 WINS VS 120 LOSSES:
IF MAX BET IS 6 UNITS ONLY.
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IF I RAISE THE MAX BET LIMIT TO 12, THE SAME SESSION FINISHES IN NET PROFIT, FAR EARLY: 35 WINS VS 53 LOSSES
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Hi Albalaha,
For the 6 units max bet session, what is the
Max drawdown?
How many times did u bet 6 units (i.e. How many times did u place the max bet?)
Can you show at which bets the 6 units were placed?
What was the net profit in terms of units?
For the 12 units max bet session, what is the
Max drawdown?
How many times did u bet 12 units (i.e. How many times did u place the max bet?)
Can you show at which bets the 12 units were placed?
What was the net profit in terms of units?
Thank you.
I would just say that the drawdowns were nothing horrible with both 6 units and 12 units max bets. Max bets were used very sparingly.
Seems the results are good on the horror if just betting ONCE only after wLL...?
A.
Quote from: Atlantis on May 29, 2020, 09:11:14 AM
Seems the results are good on the horror if just betting ONCE only after wLL...?
A.
Nothing works for all cases to avoid variance but betting too much after third consecutive loss doesn't look good or even wise enough.