If i am tracking all 12 streets in cyclesof 12 spins, what is the average spin number that a steet will hit on?
Matt,
Not sure that I understand your question.
But you made me think of another question, to investigate.
Tracking all 12 streets, in cycles of 12, how many different streets will hit per cycle ?
Best Regards,
roughly 8.
Im assuming they will average out to hit on roughly 6th spin but would not be suprised if it was a little earlier
the 12 street hit in next 12spins,
will highly impossible,
and if 8hit/12, is the accepetable averages max,
then wait for 8/12,
and bet it will not 8/12 again.
may better risk/reweard.
What you think.
====================
Wade,
6/6 of DoubleStreet, will hit,
then wait 6/6, then bet,
for it won't happen, will better.
I remember a time when I was testing a theory.
My theory was that streets is the most suitable bet section to expose the law of thirds...
Why? Because each time a street hits includes 1 shown number to 2 sleepers, so if we take this ratio to the 36 spins scale it would be interpreted like 12 repeaters to 24 shown numbers.
But the repeaters are coming from the 24 shown numbers, so actually it's quite the opposite...
In order to reflect the average expectation of "LOT" with a bet selection, that section should contain 2 shown to 1 non appeared and expect that 2 of the already shown to be repeated.
Also the spins range or cycle if you prefer should be 36 spins instead of 12.
So here it is; bet every street which includes 2 hits in 2 DIFFERENT numbers for just 1 win, no progression, just 36 spins bet limit (including the tracking).
You might think, does every street with 2 hits in 2 DIFFERENT numbers hits for third time within 36 spins?
The answer is no but doesn't have to in order to be an overall winner.
The principle is 2 shown to 1 sleeper, this proportion reflects "LOT", there isn't more precise section than the streets (except numbers) to practice it.
Let's say a street hits for 3rd time but it's not a repeat from the previous 2 shown number, but the 3rd number, in such case my personal preference is to continue bet the street till one from the three numbers repeats (within 36 spins).
Of course you could decide that you got your win and stop betting the specific street, you can choose the option which you think works better.
Overall it's not bad, but I've a better game now for straight up numbers...
Matt - I'm not sure if this answers your question or not, because TBH your question is not clearly stated. You might be surprised by the answer in which case I would surmise that you haven't made your point clearly.
Approx. 12.33
We use the Geometric distribution for finding the number of trials until the first success. The formula for the Geometric distribution is just the reciprocal of the probability of the event. The probability of the event, in this case, is 3/37 and so the reciprocal is 37/3 and so the answer to "For a street bet, what is the expected number of spins until the first hit?" is 12.33. In this case the phrase "For a street bet" means that it has been specified before the trials begin exactly WHICH street we are waiting for.
Since you state "in cycles of 12 spins" I am guessing that the question I state above is not the question you are asking. The thing is, you say "average spin number that a street will hit on" but which street? One nominated ahead? Then the above applies. If not nominated ahead then which street? Any street? OK - then the answer is 1 because whatever street hits on the first spin qualifies as "any street" - yeah?
Quote from: sqzbox on March 09, 2016, 04:57:39 AM
Matt - I'm not sure if this answers your question or not, because TBH your question is not clearly stated. You might be surprised by the answer in which case I would surmise that you haven't made your point clearly.
Approx. 12.33
We use the Geometric distribution for finding the number of trials until the first success. The formula for the Geometric distribution is just the reciprocal of the probability of the event. The probability of the event, in this case, is 3/37 and so the reciprocal is 37/3 and so the answer to "For a street bet, what is the expected number of spins until the first hit?" is 12.33. In this case the phrase "For a street bet" means that it has been specified before the trials begin exactly WHICH street we are waiting for.
Since you state "in cycles of 12 spins" I am guessing that the question I state above is not the question you are asking. The thing is, you say "average spin number that a street will hit on" but which street? One nominated ahead? Then the above applies. If not nominated ahead then which street? Any street? OK - then the answer is 1 because whatever street hits on the first spin qualifies as "any street" - yeah?
No, he didn't question about this but about in which spin the first repeat for a street is going to happen.
For example:
1st spin, number 13, no bet
2nd spin, number 23, bet 5th street, -1 unit
3rd spin, number 32, bet 5th and 8th street, -3 units
4th spin, number 4, bet 5th,8th and 11th streets, -6 units
5th spin, number 18, bet 5th,8th,11th and 2nd streets, -10 units
6th spin, number 17, bet 5th,6th,8th,11th and 2nd streets, -3 units (first repeat on 8th street)
7th spin, number 23, bet 5th,6th,8th,11th and 2nd streets, +4 units
8th spin, number 26, bet 5th,6th,8th,11th and 2nd streets, -1 unit
9th spin, number 5, bet 5th,6th,8th,9th,11th and 2nd streets, +5 units
In the following 3 spins till the 12th spin there is remaining 1 more repeat because the average expectation is 4 and so far we got 3 repeaters.
In such case it's not in our best interest to bet the remaining 3 spins because we expect 2 loses and 1 win while we win and lose equal units as we are betting 6 streets.
I hope was clear.
Thanks for replys. I apologise for thepoor wording and explanation.
What I am actually interested in is finding out what is the average number of spins that a new street occurs in a 12 spin cycle.
For example:
1st spin: new street hits
2nd spin: new street hits
3rd spin: new street hits
4th spin: repeat street hits
5th spin: new street hits
6th spin: repeat street hits
7th spin: repeat street hits
8th spin: new street hits
9th spin: new street hits
10th spin: new street hits
11th spin: repeat street hits
12th spin: new street hits
Average spins for new street to hit in example 4.166 spins
I'd like to know what other people think because I don't think this question makes any sense. ???
Quote from: sqzbox on March 09, 2016, 07:39:47 AM
I'd like to know what other people think because I don't think this question makes any sense. ???
For starters there are more than 12 streets. For accuracy there are 13.33 streets.
Quote from: Matt on March 08, 2016, 09:37:24 PM
If i am tracking all 12 streets in cyclesof 12 spins, what is the average spin number that a steet will hit on?
On average a street will hit on the first spin 37 times every 37 spins.
Quote from: sqzbox on March 09, 2016, 07:39:47 AM
I'd like to know what other people think because I don't think this question makes any sense. ???
🤗
Quote from: greenguy on March 09, 2016, 08:02:16 AM
On average a street will hit on the first spin 37 times every 37 spins.
Very insightful comment, did it take a lot of thought? :o
Quote from: Matt on March 08, 2016, 09:37:24 PM
If i am tracking all 12 streets in cyclesof 12 spins, what is the average spin number that a steet will hit on?
Is streets = streaks? or is it term used to describe a sequence of a particular pattern?
Quote from: Blue_Angel on March 09, 2016, 05:21:59 AM
No, he didn't question about this but about in which spin the first repeat for a street is going to happen.
For example:
1st spin, number 13, no bet
2nd spin, number 23, bet 5th street, -1 unit
3rd spin, number 32, bet 5th and 8th street, -3 units
4th spin, number 4, bet 5th,8th and 11th streets, -6 units
5th spin, number 18, bet 5th,8th,11th and 2nd streets, -10 units
6th spin, number 17, bet 5th,6th,8th,11th and 2nd streets, -3 units (first repeat on 8th street)
7th spin, number 23, bet 5th,6th,8th,11th and 2nd streets, +4 units
8th spin, number 26, bet 5th,6th,8th,11th and 2nd streets, -1 unit
9th spin, number 5, bet 5th,6th,8th,9th,11th and 2nd streets, +5 units
In the following 3 spins till the 12th spin there is remaining 1 more repeat because the average expectation is 4 and so far we got 3 repeaters.
In such case it's not in our best interest to bet the remaining 3 spins because we expect 2 loses and 1 win while we win and lose equal units as we are betting 6 streets.
I hope was clear.
Angel,
Can you give another example of this. I'm not sure I follow the amounts
you are betting on each street, etc.
Thanks
Mogul
Quote from: mogul397 on August 27, 2016, 05:14:27 PM
Angel,
Can you give another example of this. I'm not sure I follow the amounts
you are betting on each street, etc.
Thanks
Mogul
Yes, I can.
Streets are good bet because are representing the law of thirds proportion.
For every street that hits there is a good opportunity to hit again because it could fulfill one of two requirements or even both.
These two requirements are:
1) a number could hit more than once
2) 2 out of 3 numbers are going to hit (2/3 like 24/36 aka law of the thirds)
In order to confirm the average expectation we need to bet every street that just hit till it wins or till 37th bet from the 1st bet.
This means that after the second hit for each and every street, it's being removed from the bet selection.
Not all of the streets will be bet for the same duration/spins.
Here is an example:
21 bet the 7th street
19 7th street hits, balance +11, no bet
29 bet 10th street
36 bet 10th and 12th street, balance +10
7 bet 10th, 12th and 3rd street, balance +8
7 3rd street hits, balance +17, bet 10th and 12th street
16 bet 10th, 12th and 6th street, balance +15
12 bet 10th, 12th, 6th and 4th street, balance +12
20 bet 10th, 12th, 6th and 4th street, balance +8
2 bet 10th, 12th, 6th, 4th and 1st street, balance +4
7 bet 10th, 12th, 6th, 4th and 1st street, balance -1
11 4th street hits, balance +6, bet 10th, 12th street, 6th and 1st street
6 bet 10th, 12th, 6th, 1st and 2nd street, balance +2
34 12th street hits, balance +9, bet 10th, 6th, 1st and 2nd street
24 bet 10th, 6th, 1st, 2nd and 8th street, balance +5
35 bet 10th, 6th, 1st, 2nd and 8th street, balance 0
12 bet 10th, 6th, 1st, 2nd and 8th street, balance -5
8 bet 10th, 6th, 1st, 2nd and 8th street, balance -10
23 8th street hits, balance -3, bet 10th, 6th, 1st and 2nd street
24 bet 10th, 6th, 1st and 2nd street, balance -7
22 bet 10th, 6th, 1st and 2nd street, balance -11
22 bet 10th, 6th, 1st and 2nd street, balance -15
10 bet 10th, 6th, 1st and 2nd street, balance -19
27 bet 10th, 6th, 1st, 2nd and 9th street, balance -23
18 6th street hits, balance -16, bet 10th, 1st, 2nd and 9th street
28 10th street hits, balance -8, bet 1st, 2nd and 9th street
15 bet 1st, 2nd, 9th and 5th street, balance -11
21 bet 1st, 2nd, 9th and 5th street, balance -15
17 bet 1st, 2nd, 9th and 5th street, balance -19
28 bet 1st, 2nd, 9th and 5th street, balance -23
4 2nd street hits, balance -15, bet 1st, 9th and 5th street
30 bet 1st, 9th and 5th street, balance -18
1 1st street hits, balance -9, bet 9th and 5th street
8 bet 9th and 5th street, balance -11
16 bet 9th and 5th street, balance -13
36 bet 9th and 5th street, balance -15
13 5th street hits, balance -5, end of betting
It ends in negative but it was flat bet the whole way, while some other 37 spins cycles ends up in positive without progression.