SORRY, CAN'T LOAD IT UP.

In case anyone nterested.  I searched and found this website.

https://www.livecasinocomparer.com/live-casino-games/live-baccarat/baccarat-roadmaps/

Rainy day, I'm bored.  So I copied this conversation form the other forum.  McVince, a serious guy, IMO, and a member of BTC stated and I opined.  I thought maybe Mike and Glen might put their two cents in.

Mcvince said: ↑
I agree with you somewhat. In certain circumstances the past will dictate the future. I have found one thing that will occur 95% of the time and another 100% of the time in the shoe. It is similar to card counting. The issue is that I know it will come out but will it come out in the time that you want it to. The Pavlov's Dog scenario in this game is that it is a guessing game. Those who have played it enough and have invested a lot of time researching will tell you that it is the furthest of a guessing game.

Jimske responded:  These back and forths become a little tedious. Maybe it's just a matter of definition or not taking the time to make clear statements. But words mean something.

When you make such claims (95%, 100%) one can only assume that you are referring to a condition that exists in time (quantifiable) that will produce a specific result 95 times or 100 times out of 100 such occurrences, respectively. The only practical concern, as you allude to, is the wait time for such a condition to appear. (If we are waiting for Pluto to reach its apex in relation to the sun we will have to wait a lifetime so it matters little!) OTH, it's reasonable to assume that given enough data we can calculate the wait time for your unproven hypothesis. Similar to BJ you state? Depending on the rules and penetration we know that we will get approx. eight advantage occurrences per 100 hands - on average. Of course the outcome of such is nowhere close to 95 or 100%. In fact, the most we can expect is a 2% advantage.

(Yup, this is getting boring! It's so academic!) I can only assume that you are NOT claiming such advantage. Because if you were and said advantage was anywhere close to the 95, 100% Keith wouldn't be living in Mechanicsburg "selling" subscriptions! So I can only ask earnestly, "What the hell are you talking about?" Nobody knows.

The basic criteria as to whether these methods are guessing or not is very simple. Can it be quantified, measured, taught, etc. If it can't be measured then it is, using the vernacular, just guessing. I get that we are not talking about random choice and are using some structure to make decisions for 1) bet placements and 2) wager amounts. But without the ability to quantify that structure it is really just guessing.

So please tell me you have measured it and can show data that has a SD with a low risk of ruin that would be acceptable to most gamblers. After that it is just a matter of calculating bankroll requirements.

Thanks

Sorry Lugi - Not about you.  Just wanted to get off of Assym thread because it was going far afield.

I always get a kick out of these "secret" bet placements that cannot be shared.  You should have just told your friend that you won't share it because you don't want to look like the unintelligent he obviously is.

But I think you are on to something when you consider LIAR.  Does one bet placement have less LIAR than another?  I'll answer that.  Nope.  But that doesn't mean we cannot judge our betting style to conform with LIAR "tendencies."  If you're thinking that you kind of have to guess at these to recoup then you'd be correct.

Factoid:  % LIAR will ocurr on average approximately every 72 non-tie decisions IF using a fixed bet placement.

First let me say that I don't play much anymore.  There is no leading inicator in random outcomes.  As chance would have it I did a solid for a guy and to my surprise he knew a guy who knew a guy who agreed to show me free of charge (he normally charge 50k) leading indicators in futures.  So that's what I've been up to the last year or so.  And. . .it ain't easy and still a bit of a grind but mechanical and verified.

Haviing explained that; I have gotten a few requests for Baccarat stuff and I want to reiterate that there are no leading indicators in random numbers.  Like my friend Lani, who could write a program for any of these bet placements in a day (and did), used to say.  So you think the game is not random, show me how your predicct the outcome!     We couldn't do it.

I know this is old ground but it deserves resurrecting.  All bet placements return to the EV of the game.  But different ones have different nemesis - differrent patterns that they lose to.  That's why ALL methods have switches or triggers to be employed when losing.  These changes are supposed to be leading indicators that turn the game into a winner.  Therein lies the search for the holy grail.  It doesn't exist.  Enter money managment and progressions as the only way to maybe beat the game - maybe. 

Some of these systems are complicated enough to where you really can't see what the nemesis is.  All you see is bet this way and when this other thing happens then bet that way.  So we may as well just pick a simple placement so we can identify the nemesis and change our style when it pops up.  Some simple ones I like and ones for novices to play with are XXYY, XY, PAIRS.  At least then you can see clearly what is wrong and employ MM and betting amounts.  Other than that devise a way to follow the shoe.

Long time players llike Alrelax and others have their own way of doing this.  Systems like, S40, NOR, Dr. Tom, Alvin and I suppose Tabone all attempt to follow the shoe through counts or patterns so you don't have to learn to do it yourself.  But what happens is that the player concentrates on his card trying to be accurate and doesn't "see" the game.  Note that ALL of these methods use MM and most use some sort of progression.  This is because they can't win flat betting without it.  I'll pick on Stephen again since he is current (nothing personal folks).  When you hear stuff like "get out when things aren't going right" or "quit when you are ahead" head for the hills!  It just means the method is subjective.  You're gambling!

Firm bet placements are better than none just to prevent confusion and maintain focus so you don't end up chasing your tail.  Therein lies the value of systems.  Happy hunting!

Sorry this was so long and IS THERE SPELLCHECK?

Can anyone figure out the average number of ocurrences that each of the dragon bets will hit in an 8 deck shoe?  When I say each I mean number of times the different levels will hit.

Thanks in advance,

J

You guys getting this PM stuff?  Didn't say how much he wants to fleece you for.

Hey how you doing today, My name is Rome. I'm contacting you today because I see that you play and study the game of BACCARAT. I have learned a proven method/formula that will work where ever you go in the world. You can play online or even in the casino. I just registered on this forum and looking to teach people for a fair price. I learned this method from someone who has been playing this game for over 30+ years. (Professional) The formula that i will teach you is not out to the public. It really works and I can prove to you, when ever you have time thru black orchard live casino or even 5 dimes.

Note* I'm willing to prove to you that it it works. I will not waste my time or yours.

Just in case some of you are still searching for the holy grail.  There is no "formula" that can beat a random EC game.

Free advertising shoud not be allowed here.

I had a $100.00 bill that was picked up by my bank as being counterfeit.  It came from Mohegan Sun.  The FBI will be contacting me.  Maybe they should raid Mo Sun?

So yesterday I got 14 B IAR.  Been awhile since I seen more than 7 or 8.  Don't often see 7 or 8 for that matter.  Because of my bet placement to that point my win rate on the 14 was: LWLWWLWWWWWWWWL.  Yes, won some good units but didn't come close to emptying the try.  Suppose I had run a Fibonacci sequence (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55).  If I had run the Fib than I would have made 34 units after losing the 55 but . . . if I stopped at 34 would have won 89.  Big diff.  It's all relative as t when to stop.

I guess the interesting point is given the frequency of runs is it worth it itlr?  We got to win 4 IAR to win 1 unit whereas if we flat bet we win 3 more units.  I wonder if any of you math guys have figured out whether this is worthwhile.  After all the amount of run lengths in a random selection is a know quantity, right?

This brings me to a similar question abut so called dragon runs.  I have won 9, 10 ,11, even 12 IAR just through normal betting when there is no recognizable common easy pattern.  So what's the difference.  Why not just use the Fib or some other up as you win prog?  Somehow I doubt it is an advantage itlr.

Today shoe I got another "dragon."  Anyway I call them that since the frequency are the same.  This won went pp BB pp BB pp BB pp B p.  No, sigh, LOL, I got some good units but didn't run a Fib!  To me this is basically a 15 IAR dragon.  Further what difference is it from 33333 or 2121212121, etc?  I say none in terms of frequency of occurrence.  So again may as well just use your W IAR to determine your preferred up as you win prog.

Does it help?  Any pinions?  How about asym?  He seems to have his finger on the Baccarat pulse.

bacpro
Member
Posts: 7 (0.088 per day)Age:N/A
Date Registered: December 15, 2015, 04:07:50 amLocal Time:March 04, 2016, 08:08:04 pm
Last Active: Today at 09:07:11 am

This is a guy calling himself hendra adhi advertising Baccarat College on .cc.  I contacted him and he would give me no infor except he is charging 6k to teach how to win 3 units a shoe!

It finally hit me.  It was Eirscott that used that same Cobain avatar.  Coincidence? or same guy?

QuoteRe: Andy Dulay
« Reply #2 on: Yesterday at 05:22:26 pm »
ReplyReply
I'm really not sure what the confederate flag has to do with baccarat..does ones avatar define them? ..people are responsible to govern themselves so why would this be an issue what AD was assisting in selling to others...does a supermarket be held accountable if a shopper doesn't like a product they bought from them?

Here is what I find funny....johno is egalite and the magical Rolex watch....but Did you know he is also OZ on the btc forum....the same OZ that claimed to win 100 shoes in a row using a otbl method and who has claimed to be one of Ellis's million dollar winners....oh an he is also Ozon here..
I guess now we see behind the curtain....

Maybe some of you don't want to talk about ADulay - fine, but IMO when you got a moderator who was involved with scam sites (maverick and Ellis) and knew it questions should be asked.

You got to ask what the motivation is for a guy to be a moderator on all these different sites.  Andy doesn't really add much to the forum even though he apparently has vast experience with Baccarat and is privy to many, if not all, the betting methods from Ellis thru Mark T and even Alvin.  So maybe he just does it to get free systems and then he can give them t his friends or whatever, who knows but it's still weird.

I would prefer people to use the same avatar in a particular site but Johno was NOT involved in the 100 shoe fiasco of OTBL or any of ECD's stuff.  So that part you got wrong.  I don't know about the other because I don't go on those sites.

can one really expect to win at this game?

Sure you can convert it to $ but perhaps it's bets to understand it in terms of base units to make all wins equal.  Given the different approaches this may not be easy but certainly worthwhile to bring the game to reality.

Anyone want to start?  I'll put my two cents in with some real examples later.

J

I haven't followed WEWIN thread much and figured he might take it down.  Maybe I want to take a peak sometime in the future.  But I saw a lot of you guys wee interested so I copied a bunch of it:  Here it is.  Enjoy!  or NOT!  Whatever.



1
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Today at 05:45:21 pm »
I have learned so much through the years and my health is not what it use to be so I guess I want people to experience the same success that I have had.

Cheers to everyone and happy trails.
2
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Today at 05:40:05 pm »
If people are still interested we can discuss bet selection. This system is so sound I feel sorry for the people who have lost untold 1000's and have closed there mind and turned a blind eye to this. The old adage is true, You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink.
3
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Today at 05:19:29 pm »
I have set forth a very logical system that can make you money. Casinos are in the business of making money so if anyone trolls or try's discouraging you then maybe they work for the casino. If you could only see the hate that I see in the face of the Dealers and Casino Shift Managers when I am winning 10 hands in a roll. If you use this system as I said before the a casino will hate you. Get your cards out that you have played and study this system. This is a gift and weather you  receive it or not is up to you.
4
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Today at 05:07:24 pm »
Your card should look like this if you are charting correctly.

B.   B.   B.   B.   B.   B.   B.  P.  P.  B.  B.  B. B.  B.  B.
B.   B.   B.   B.   B.   B.   P.  P.  B.  B.  P.  B. P.   B.  P.
                                    X.       I.       X.      X.        X.

13 - 4 - 4 - 1 - 3 - 1 - 3 - 1

+. +. +. +. +. +. +. +. +. +. +. -  +. - +. - +. - +. - - +. +. - - +. +. - -

This is the complete system minus the top line X / O which is not necessary for you to make money.



5
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Today at 04:32:44 pm »
I have showed you everything but L formation which represents the very top line or the X / O method. You do not need to know this and it can easily be removed from this system. I have given you the entire system which should make you wealthy if you study it out. The system is in place the only thing left to discuss is bet selection.
6
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Today at 04:19:55 pm »
It's really important for you to understand the + / - because it will help you when you are trying to figure out the breaks in the shoe.
7
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Today at 04:14:15 pm »
Step # 5

This is where I chart the + / - and this is ho it works. This will begin on the 3rd hand delt.

B.  B.  B.  B.  B.  B. P. B. P. B.
B.  B.  B.  P.  P.  P.  B. P. B. P.

You have to look at this in a cris cross fashion and it goes as follows.

+. +. +. +. +. - - - - - +. +. +. +. +. +. +. +.

8
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Today at 03:54:33 pm »
Keep in mind I just do numbers. I don't track Bank, Player underneath,  I just use that for an illustration.







9
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Today at 03:51:44 pm »
Even though I am charting and tracking the shoe with this method I never get away from the basics. ie Run, Chop ect / This is will bring us to Step # 4

This brings us to the numbers line or what is actually happening in the shoe.

3-2-2-2-1-3-1-3-5-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-5-1-3

This could be read as BBBPPBBPPBPPPBPPPBBBBBPPBBPPPBPBPBPBBBBBPBBB

I do my numbers lined this way so I know what is exactly happening in the shoe.
10
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Today at 03:37:47 pm »
Step # 3

This is really part of step # 2 but we will call it step # 3 to stay in the proper sequence. If the second line is the same as the top line I would call this a second line same and would chart it as follows.

B.  P.  B.  P.
B.  P.  B.  P.

I leave a blank box underneath because it helps me distinguish between a second line same and a second line difference.
11
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Today at 03:26:01 pm »
Step # 2

I ask myself will the top line be the same or different than the bottom line. I track that this way.
If it is different than the top line, I would call that a second line difference. A second line difference would be a BP or PB. I track the second line difference as follows.

B.   P.
P.   B.
X.   I.


13
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Today at 02:56:28 pm »
We should now have an understanding of the format I am using. However for this post I will explain the format again so that we can continue to learn in additional post. If you had a blank Baccarat card in front of you and the only thing you wrote down was the winning hands it would go as follows. Top, Bottom, Top, Bottom, Top, Bottom, Top, Bottom, Top, Bottom, ect. ect. ect.

We will call this Step # 1 for the learning process
14
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Today at 02:35:49 pm »
I am trying to teach you a system that I believe works.  It will cost you nothing to continue to learn. However as tdx said if this is not your cup of tea then quit!!!!! That will not cost you anything. I have not answered some questions because I am not ready to explain that portion of the system. I really shouldn't have brought up reading the cards because it's really not part of the system, however if you can read the cards it will only enhance your ability to win.
15
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Today at 12:17:32 am »
You are following the shoe and it just broke on three Banks to go player.  You continue to follow the shoe and it goes three Banks.  I decide to bet big money on a repeater & I place my chips on the player and it goes to the Bank so my next thought is maybe it's a run so I wager on the Bank and it's a Player. Why did this happen?? I will let the board answer this and then I will give my answer.
16
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Today at 12:02:31 am »
I promise, you can bring a casino to their knees with what I am teaching you. Just hold on...
17
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Yesterday at 11:59:56 pm »
You may ask yourself why am I sharing this with everyone.. The answer is that casinos rob people every day in what they call the house advantage.  I'm trying to help a good man and women even the odds with the casino.




18
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Yesterday at 11:55:21 pm »
tdx... You miss read what I wrote. I said every time you have a top line player & bottom line bank the top line would be a bank. However you have to play what is happening in the shoe ie If a PB produced a top line player instead of a bank then you would have to follow the player as your bet selection and not the bank. I don't expect people to understand everything all at once. This has taking me years to learn. A few lucky people will take this to heart and actually become better players.
19
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Yesterday at 11:40:42 pm »
The numbers are based on the succession of the winning hands delt You go top bottom / top bottom / top bottom ie if it were 3 banks, 2 players, and 3 banks. The numbers would be 3, 2, 3
20
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Yesterday at 11:32:22 pm »
Most of the people on this form should know the game of baccarat.  If you take the knowledge you already have coupled with what I'm trying to teach you. You could be a very good and maybe even a dangerous player.
21
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Yesterday at 11:27:30 pm »
Dennis you are correct with the + / - . Great Job figuring that out. You will come to find out that there are very distinct patterns with this. ie you could have --- ++---++ ---ect. You can treat these + / - like a run, chop, two's and 3 and break. The repeaters with this when you study it out in multiple shoes will amaze you. I know it did me. Yes very amazing!!!!!
22
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Yesterday at 11:17:44 pm »
Actually I don't want or need your money.  This system is very hard to explain whith the format I have to work with. I never learned this over night and if I explained everything at once you wouldn't get the full effect of studying this on your own. I will start to answer some question
27
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Yesterday at 02:17:31 pm »
Did you notice that every time it went PB ie top line player and bottom line bank the top line was a bank. Some would call this a repeater and it really is this is also true with top line bank and bottom line player. The can actually repeat the entire shoe. However to truly understand this you have to understand Baccarat. In Baccarat you have to play what is happening or what is strong. In other words if it's not repeating it will chop the entire shoe so play what is happening. Just on this knowledge and nothing else you can't be beat.

28
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: Yesterday at 02:08:24 pm »
I will give you one more gold nugget today in reference to this system.
31
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: December 08, 2015, 06:09:22 pm »
I thought it was the voice of God or maybe I had finally gone crazy. At any rate I began to search out what the L formation might be. I am still hesitant about sharing this information because I believe it is the absolute key to baccarat.
Reply
32
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: December 08, 2015, 06:05:35 pm »
This has been something I always thought I would take to my grave with me. I really never wanted anyone to know this. I was sitting at home one day in my recliner studying in the game of Baccarat when I heard a still small voice say to me. Have you considered the L formation.

33
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: December 08, 2015, 05:45:57 pm »
Did you notice all of the O's and did you notice that the X never repeated. That's one part of the system and it can lead to some very strong wagers.
34
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: December 08, 2015, 05:39:35 pm »
The system may look complicated but it's not. The PB goes top line / bottom line / top line Bottom line and it continues like that.







37
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: December 08, 2015, 05:12:09 pm »
O. X. O. O. O. O. O. O. O. X. O. O. X. O. X. O.
P. B. P. B. P. B. P. B. P. B. B. P. B. B. B. B. B.
B. B. B. P. B. P. B. P. B. B. P. B. P. B. P. B. P.
I.      I. X.  I. X. I. X. I.      X. I. X.     X.     X.

1-3-1-2-2-2-2-2-2-4-2-2-1-3-1-3-1

+. -  -  +. +. +. +. +. +. +. +  +. +. +. +. +. +. -  +. -  +. +. +. +. -  +. +. -  - +. +. -
ReplNotify
38
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: December 08, 2015, 04:19:27 pm »
The system is very simple and it  incorporates the basic Baccarat  strategies that everyone knows. The basic strategies are Based on the Run, Chop, Two' and Three & Break.


66
Baccarat Forum / Re: Fail Safe System !
« on: December 08, 2015, 05:12:09 pm »
O. X. O. O. O. O. O. O. O. X. O. O. X. O. X. O.
P. B. P. B. P. B. P. B. P. B. B. P. B. B. B. B. B.
B. B. B. P. B. P. B. P. B. B. P. B. P. B. P. B. P.
I.      I. X.  I. X. I. X. I.      X. I. X.     X.     X.

1-3-1-2-2-2-2-2-2-4-2-2-1-3-1-3-1

+. -  -  +. +. +. +. +. +. +. +  +. +. +. +. +. +. -  +. -  +. +. +. +. -  +. +. -  - +. +. -

Quote from: AsymBacGuy on Today at 10:33:30 am

QuoteJimskie you don't deserve any answer when you insult people you don't know, expecially considering your age.
as.

Really?  That's a pretty lame excuse.  I'll ask it once more.  You have been saying for months (years?) now that you have the secret sauce.  And not just on this forum but others as well.  So I never asked you to reveal your stuff.  All I asked from day one (before any insults) what is the average number of bets per 100 decisions and what was the strike rate percentage.  You said you have tested over a million shoes so you MUST have those simple stats but you never respond to that question which I deem is a fair question.

Quoteexpecially considering your age.

  My wife says I'm old and grumpy.  But she's a lot younger - I tell her to wait until she gets my age!  heheheh

I posted this a while back and only one person asked for it.  I never got any feedback one way or another so I don't know if he bothered or not.  But since there are a lot more Peeps around I thought I'd post it again.

Strictly mechanical won 3.86 units a shoe for 175 shoes betting every hand so that's about 12,000 decisions.  Maximum bet is 6 units and that doesn't happen often at all.

So if any one wants to check it out PM me and I will send it.  It's free.

I don't play it and I am not sure why.  I just got into other things and  . . . maybe I will.

J

Bring it to your own thread please.

Quote from: Lung Yeh on November 30, 2015, 04:41:04 PM
it's a disaster. Lost US$500k. I intend to give up or there will be dire consequences. 😞😞😔😔. Too tired to discuss. As is usual, lost control... And took credit from the junckets and then use credit cards. I think I have bipolar disorder...

Sorry to hear your terrible loss.  Not that it really matters to me- it doesn't, but I have no desire to see you or anyoone lose money to the casios which I disdain.

The colors, the light, the sound, the comps . . .everything about the casino environment is designed to lull one into a place of "dreamland" to separate patrons from their money.  Sure, Giz is correct as to greed being a part of the problem gambler syndrome but NOT the only problem.  The adrenaline rush, the dopamine all contribute to actual chemical changes that affect some more than others. 

Ask yourself.  Can you stop?  How do you think Gr8 lost 250k at this game?  Apparently he is now cured and that is good.  Maybe you should ask hiim how he overcame that "addiction" and compulsive behavior?

Quote from: ezmark on November 30, 2015, 02:18:15 AM
Jimske I may need help with my maths.

for simple math

8000 bets at a 52% WR  if you bet every hand to make 8000 bets  one month of full time play at 160 hours.

2% above breakeven.  8000 X 2% = 160  bets profit before commissions

160 bets profit over 160 hours played  = 1 bet profit per hour ?

maths... 8000 bets  / 75 hands per game = 106 games x 1.5 hours per game = 160 hours    160 profit/ 160 hours   = 1  bet profit per hour ? if you bet every hand  , if you bet less number of hands per hour you will make less per hour ?

ez

Seems right to me .  Now Gr8 bets 15 bets per shoe with a 54% win rate (he says) and mostly flat bets with a few parlays.  Guesstimate that win profit per hour!

I don't flat bet.  But you are right hands per hour an important criteria.  Soxfan always says "flat bet don't feed the bulldog"  LOL 

But you got to keep in mind that you can still lose even with a 52% hit rate in a shoe.  You can also still win even with a 48% hit rate in a shoe.  The trick is to get more profit than the % hit rate would dictate in a + shoe and reduce losses in a - shoe.

FYI  I deleted posts on "Betting Every Hand" to remove posts I considered off topic.  You want to talk about something else - start your own thread.

The reason I bring this up is because I get criticized by Gr8 and Asymbacc for doing this - betting every hand.  Both say that somehow if you bet every hand you are negating an edge or somehow reducing your chances of winning.  So let's look at this with some common sense.

First off if you are not betting every hand than you are waiting for certain outcomes to make a bet.  Doesn't this mean that you are attempting to predict a certain future event?  So if you are and do then this future event must be definitive.  So what is it?  Asymbacc says he knows what it is and its occurrence is not that common - maybe only a few instances every several hundred decisions or more.  Gr8 agrees but has been able to find this occurrence multiple times within a shoe. 

Taking both of them at their word seems to present a conflict.  Is their really only a small instance of positive advantage or are there more instances?  If there is no predictable advantage based on waiting for a certain circumstance than why should it matter whether one waits or not?  So again you can't have it both ways.  You either have a clear definite advantage which is describable or you don't.

I say you don't.  In the end without a positive prediction we are both making a bet selection based on a certain previous set of circumstance.  It's called TRENDING.  It seems to me that Gr8 and as both have a specific bet placement to use against certain previous circumstance.  So do I.  Difference is that I have more than one and employ them at different times depending on the trend.  Sorry, I am not able to say there is a positive expectation for any of them because basically it's a guess.

Now here is my big secret.  I look at the shoe and make a series of bets with an expectation of what MUST happen in the future for me to win.  When it doesn't win that means some other placement would win and I employ that.  When that doesn't work it means I am losing!  Profound, huh?  I am now looking for an exit and hopefully will keep those losses to a minimum.  Sure, I could just as easily find that if I stayed I would recoup all and win big!  It's a gamble.  But I know that there are shoes that 1) conform to my placement from the get go without any changes and 2) conform to my changes after a loss and go on to win, and 3) shoes that are somewhere in between that don't do much at all (these are the majority).  Most good shoes require two changes.  I rarely will go for three changes in a shoe even though I can utilize four bet placements.

So patience, discipline, structure and consistency are all important for winning.  It's a betting game!  Without a positive real mathematical EDGE there is no advantage in waiting.  Wait if you want - no problem.

Oh, I don't actually ALWAYS bet every hand.  Here's a shoe I played the other day where I actually stopped playing for 1, 1, 3, 1, and 1.  Sorry I did but . . .  And no, they're not all this good (64% WR).  This shoe utilized two placements.  Not too hard to figure out which two they were.  Once in a long while I get a one placement shoe.  Talk about easy peasy!  I should really learn to make more money on those!  But I get scared an tend to back off too much!

P1221122212221212123433536421  So I made about 50 bets and called it quits after seeing the Player 2. 

Locked post!  Who locked it?  Why? 

I will answer WBK.  Reason is that this is a guessing and betting game.  Sure, you can start with a certain specific structure using bet placement and MM but in the end there is just going to be some subjective decisions which will come down to luck and maybe just experience. 

Personally I have spent a LOT of time looking at different mechanical methods but to no avail.  Like some others I'd say my selection for placement and betting is 90% mechanical.  But when things don't go the way I predict I got to make some guesses.  So far that has worked out for me to continually grind out wins.

Another problem with any forum is that few are on the same page when it comes to tactics or style.  You can spend a LOT of time4 posting on how you play but in the end most will just go there own way.  So why bother?

J

Some of you guys pretty sharp with the maths.  What would be the minimum hands won % you might consider just flat betting.  Now of course you got to make some fudging about how many hands are bet on P and B.  But ket's assume they are nearly equal.  "Nearly" because there are more B than P.

You  could also opine on what unit size you would personally require to "feed the bulldog."  hey, hey.

I expect you to weigh in here asymbaccguy and Gr8.

J

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