Thx albalaha. I've researched some/ will study some more over the weekend. This one may have some merit.




Continued Success,

"At gambling, the deadly sin is to mistake bad play for bad luck." – Casino Royale (Movie)   

Great writing as always Asym. I do not think I have ever seen so many succinct statements in any one post.

*so the idea so loved by mathematicians that each new hand is EV- no matter what is a total completely bighorn.sh.it.

**Hoping to get an endless series of unrandom spots (no matter how long we've waited for them) is an utopy; confiding that an infinite series of "same situations" will stop before reaching the common expected sd values is a sure fkng certainty.

***For sure itlr such 0-5/6 "d" range is constantly shifted toward the left side, meaning there will be dealt a lot more shoes belonging to the 0 or 1 category than belonging to the 4 or 5/6 class.

--"...I'll try to better schematize that within a couple of days...."


I look forward to your further elaboration.

Many thanks,kfb

BTC @ 71,500 today 4824.
I agree Alb we may see <=80K in near future. After it held above low 50s I projected we could potentially see <=85-86k as an apex. After all the halving hype there will be a retreat toward a mild basil near 50K IMO. We could possibly see a retraction >=30%.

There are so few holders of btc at large quantities the price can and will fluctuate with great volatility as the large holders see fit.

*Another concern is even if the small holders hedge their bets with inverse ETFs such as (BITI), btc is traded 24-7 and BITI as well as most markets (In USA) are only open 8am--4pm. So just a few BTC holders can really alter the markets at night or weekend.


Good luck to all bit coiners/remember to take some profits or at least get your cost basis +3% out. Then let it ride if you desire as thou shalt see high volatility in coming month.
Just another investing tip from your Uncle Kung 


Continued Success To All,

Thx 8POR9
Awesome story/thx for posting.

--------------------------------------

Great auto photos from the past. It is obvious why most are no longer around.
*I remember the first time I ever saw a Yugo. Probably late 1980s and they had one on display in a shopping mall. The hot model that was standing near the car was explaining to passerby's what a great car. It seems like this base car was approx. $4900 or so without a radio. That was extra.
The main things I recall about it(besides I had never seen a car without a radio) was the tires were tiny and looked like a spare (doughnut). The bumper was mostly plastic and only about 3" wide.


Thx for photos

"...BTC will stay and get stronger... Those predicting that it will not last should learn from BlackRock.. ."


BTC at 69,500 today 4/1/24. I think its been up or down a couple K in past 24 hours.

I agree it will stay and be around for awhile(Until the next big thing). So are tulips and beanie babies. In fact, I gave my neighbor approx half of the tulips from one of our flower beds after they complemented them. I probably received them free 20years ago or maybe paid $3-5 at Lowes Home Supply. But yes indeed tulips are still around. So are beanie babies as I recently saw a bin of them for $3 each at a local antique store.

BTC is nothing like it was defined in its initial White Papers in 2008--2009. So just because they keep changing what it is and will become doesn't mean the folks 14 years ago were correct.

The tenets from its origin papers are easily refuted. So the BTC we are seeing today in its current state is largely due to great marketing and a cultish type following that is now coupled with a financial instrument.
BTC most resembles a commodity/ most certainly is not and will not be a currency unless it continues to evolve. Which then makes it NOT the bitcoin from its origin. Thus far I have not seen anything transacted with bitcoin(unless very recently). Items are transacted in dollars and then translated into bitcoins.
In fact, if we really needed a new way to do electronic payments doing so with Apple shares (ApplBit)would have been significantly more efficient. Far more people owned Apple stock and if a large enough audience bought (AppleBit) they would have incentives to also buy Apple products (Iphones, Ipads,..ets) to directly increase the value of AppleBit. If one owns BTC ones only hope is to sell it to someone else for more.


I recently observed a clip from a talk show host on CNBC and after the guest pointed out that BTC had drifted so far from its original tenets and had no characteristics of a currency. The CNBC host (without hesitation) immediately states: "well that's what makes BTC such a unique currency is that it has the ability to "evolve" like no other currency ever in our history". The guest almost burst out laughing but quickly tried not to scoff at the host/ the CNBC host even had to hide his own laugh as he knew what he just said was BS.

The original claims such as total anonymity, government can't ever see what you're doing, can't be hacked, well if u get hacked u should have put your holdings in a hot wallet--OR cold wallet, transactions are free, transactions are fast,....etc.

IMO the recent ETFs (and the fees collected by exchanges/investment Co such as Blackrock) will keep BTC alive for many years as they are making a killing on these new ETF fees. Today's stock market is much like a casino. IMO the casino gives one a less manipulated market if one plays low H.E. games such as Bac.

The following in part from Investopedia:

What Changed Since 2008 and 2009?

Bitcoin's lifespan contains an enormous history of ups and downs, both in terms of its dollar price as well as its development and support. For an idea that started as an anonymous research paper, its reputation and large market capitalization are astounding. To enjoy these accomplishments, Bitcoin had to endure several diversions from its original white paper:

Mining centralization:
Bitcoin's popularity drove its price up, which made mining very lucrative. Though the network is designed to be decentralized, those with enough money built large mining facilities in areas that subsidize electricity, thereby concentrating an important source of Bitcoin's power into the hands of a few.

Incentives:
Part six of the white paper outlines the rewards to miners, but even the largest are not immune to market forces. Mining Bitcoin gets progressively harder as the network grows, and so eventually, mining it en masse requires a lot of hardware, electricity, and cooling. This creates a breakeven point for mining, which is a factor that was not anticipated in the white paper.

Blockchain's size:
Part seven of the white paper is about keeping blockchain's size at a minimum, and so far, it's done a decent job. However, at around 558 GB as of March 23, 2024, it is a significant storage burden.
15
Blockchain.com. "Blockchain Size (MB)."

Privacy:
Satoshi illustrates his vision for private transactions in part 10, but Bitcoin is now only private for those who take great caution to ensure their anonymity. Most Bitcoin is now traded between centralized exchanges that require identification (and occasionally bank account verification), so it is not difficult to trace to whom it belongs or where it is going. Bitcoin's speculation-fueled popularity put it in the spotlight of government and central banks long ago. Though people understand institutional finance cannot ever destroy Bitcoin entirely, at this point, it is as much a part of Bitcoin as regular users are.

Speed and Fees:
Bitcoin's core development team has made changes to its code over time to address problems with transaction speeds and costs. They have altered the size of blocks being verified and opened up pathways for integration with off-chain solutions like the Lightning Network. Whether these side chains or second-layer solutions will pay off in the long run remains to be seen.


Just my quick thoughts/opinions as I skim the forum late at night.

More later/ Best of luck to all bitcoiners,

"...On the 8th hand was the first F7.  Had 2 three card 9-0s in the bankers favor for wins on the dragon bonus as well.  The next section produced more F7s, three card 8-0s and three card 9-0s in the bankers favor as well.  A quick $20k or so, wagering $200-500 most hands, $50 on Dragons and $25 on F7s.  ..."

Great cash extraction.

"...And the highest majority of all winning patrons, unfortunately give it back to the casino in pursuit of larger and greater wins. ..."[/i]

     that's what I often see at the tables.

IMO we all win and we all lose at times. Generally speaking the long-term winners don't play with emotion. Meaning they don't get too overly excited with big wins. Baccarat can humble one very rapidly so I find it best not to think too highly of my skill set after a huge win or string of big wins.
Similar to when a bad shoe gives us a big L. We shouldn't dwell on that too much either.

Just my opinion.


Good post.

Asym in post #1016 above:

"...But only a small portion of them know that in order to win itlr one must realize that only a huge bankroll could cover the vast majority of negative fluctuations the game will provide, at the same time aiming for a relatively small profit per every session played..."

I agree 100%.
It is my opinion one should not seek to develop a holy grail that wins all shoes. We would simply be forced to utilize such a small bet size to buyin ratio. The wins wouldn't really "move the needle" as far as a % of the overall bankroll. Plus we would still have at least a small probability to bust.

It is my belief we are better off trying to handle a predetermined level of (-)Variance. Allow just enough buyin size(dependant on one's own hit rate) so we will still be in the game after the inevitable rough patches. Give ourselves a statistically and realistic opportunity and accept when it's not there. On the shoes we do indeed bust our buyin we should remind ourselves it can only lose down to (0). As long as we don't rebuy into that same bad shoe.

My preference is to utilize a pos progression so we win more when we see that same Variance as (+). Hopefully significantly more on the W streaks/shoes.



Continued Success To All,

"When a gambler picks up a pack of cards or a pair of dice, he feels as though he has reduced an unmanageable world to a finite, visible and comprehensive size."

                                                        – Annabel Davis-Goff

alrelax above (in part):

"...
There were hands such as the following ones I will write out.

P=2/face B 10/7 and P pulls a 6. Everyone on bankers.
P=4/9 B face/6 and P pulls a 4.  Everyone on bankers.

Everyone switched to players.
P=10/8 (of course quick hi-5s) B turns over 10/9.

Most all the serious bettors switched back to bankers.
P=9/8. B=5/A.

Most stayed bankers.  P=9/9. B=9/8.

Then hands such as: P=face/4. B=face/face. P pulls a 6 and bankers pulls a 10.  Most were on bankers and that, "darn can't even beat a zero" was said out loud in frustration.

Everyone on players with large wagers.
P=5/9. B=2/10. Players turn over a 7.  Bankers turn over a face card.  Another frustrating hand for most...".


I have been there/done that and agree its certainly frustrating. Its an emotional killer when say P has '"1 and all B has to do is beat "1" and fails. I get a brief moment of thinking "even a fifth grader could beat a 1,lol. Im thiking "Cmon dealer" as Im already counting the wager as a W. Then nada. Reminds me of a frequent saying I hear at the tables: "Got an eight don't yet celebrate".


H-Money says, "let's do this" pretty loud.  Throws in the $1,200 I gave him and he had a few hundred left in chips.

I do not do this though Im glad it worked for him "this time".

I see people do it all the time though. Fight a tough battle for hours and then due to fatigue go all in or parlay all net profits for that one final "Sayanora" , "Im going home wager".


Good post

Hi all,

Re: This aforementioned Pi coin Alb mentions above. I had never heard of it(the crypto not Pi) and haven't researched it yet.

Great name/marketing opportunity. They (Pi network) didn't ask me, however, I would have made the Kiosk with a Gold-plated face board at top of kiosk. Maybe made it the shape of a pie (with a 1/6 slice removed)...etc. They could make their token a gold coin with the Pi symbol (Similar to bitcoin except replace the "B" with the "Pi" symbol. I would have launched it on March 14(3/14), maybe they did and I didn't notice. I believe there is a large international club (Pi club) that have a national (maybe international) membership that has an annual meeting and celebration each year. Maybe a good group to pitch it to as some would sign up just for fun. Just some quick thoughts. I wish them the best of luck.


Continued Success,

"Gambling with cards or dice or stocks is all one thing. It's getting money without giving an equivalent for it."  – Henry Ward Beecher

Bitcoin at 62,900 today 3/22/24. By the time some of you on the other side of the globe read this it may be at 73k or 53k. As I've mentioned in past few weeks, I have been adding positions in BITI(Proshares SHORT Bitcoin Futures). So obviously it moves opposite BTC direction. That is if BTC goes up my BITI shares decrease, and vice versa.  Today I was able to unravel 20% (1 of 5 tier levels) of total shares @ an approx. +13.5% ROI.
My motto: "The trend must end".  Just like in gambling.

I'm still underwater on the initial tier purchases. I was optimistic in past couple weeks that I could add two additional tier levels if Bitcoin euphoria continued and BTC went to 85k levels. I actually hypothesized that once BTC went through 55k without much of a retracement that it could then move upward to 85k range before retracement <=30%.

*I saw a stat this week that new first-time BTC buyers in past six months had an avg entry price @ 54k. So, we may actually see a retracement to that level as a temporary basal level.

**I also saw several weeks ago when BTC was in 40k--50k range. It regressed -10--12k over a few days and that only 3% of BTC owners were responsible for the move.

__________________________________________________________

Poster above: "Those considering themselves smarter than Blackrock putting $3 Billions in it should introspect a bit more..."

    The U.S. Government agreeing to grant approval for BlackRock's ETF is confirmation the U.S. Gov is wanting to have some control over the BTC market. I'm still not clear on exactly what the USgov plans with BTC market. I suspect BlackRock has been quietly buying BTC at very low prices in past 6-8 years(with US Gov knowledge and support).

Blackrock is currently the largest manager of U.S. Gov pension/retirement. BR manages approx. 12 trillion of U.S. Gov retirement pensions. If one has worked for the U.S. Gov it is likely that Blackrock manages your retirement directly or indirectly. I like them relative to most financial managers as they only charge 0.76% management fee. Plus, they will continue managing after one retires. Many funds mgrs. do not allow(without addendum fees or penalties). Which is really good. This fee % is often overlooked.

They also offer one of the lowest management fees for their recent ETF Vs other ETFs such as Grayscale. I suspect these upfront fees is one of the main reasons we are now seeing all these recent ETF offerings from numerous investment companies.

Re:ETFs

In two consecutive days last week Grayscale saw 640 million /400+Million of outflowing funds from their ETFs as recent investors unloaded. In two days, Grayscale lost 40% of their total Bitcoin holdings they had accumulated in past decade. Over the past week they saw over 12 billion $ in outflow.

    *I'm starting to hear a few of the early and very large bitcoin advocates acknowledge that BTC is not suitable for a currency.




Best of luck to all bit coiners,

Hi Asym

In the post #1011 above you say:

"...There are a couple of principal reasons to explain such streaks (and other patterns) propensity:

a) the general factor causing baccarat streaks to be shorter than at a perfect 50/50 proposition;

b) the finiteness of long streaks distribution, especially after coming out by a consecutive fashion.
  ..."

On (a) do you mean relative to a coin flip or do you mean in comparison with "even chance ish" games like line bets in Craps?? Both?  Neither??

Thx in advance,kfb

Thank you AsymBacGuy for not only your prompt response but also for such detail. Posts like this are beneficial.

Re: 2iar. A couple weeks ago I played a rare shoe that produced 14 consecutive P 2iars (e.g., yPPyyPPyyy,..etc). Meaning 14 consecutive PP turned to B. There were a couple of single "P" columns within this fourteen 2iar streaks but no PP went PPP.

After the 14-streak ended PP then went PPP and PPPT as its longest streak. But never produced a PPPP.
B was mostly typical in each column following the PP producing a mix of 1-4 Bs immediately following every PP. Several other strong events were showing too but they didn't have the 100% strike rate for going against the PP. Shoe had 5 Ties.

I did very well as I caught 12 of the 14 PP turns to B. I pressed aggressively through the 7th-8th win (Which was approximately the 8-9th "PP" turn). I was at (Tmax and Tmax+) on the 6th,7th,8th W. I then regressed back to my (base unit +15$) and reduced by -$5 on each succeeding W until the end.

Certainly, one of my better shoes for the month/ I don't recall ever seeing this many (14) consec PP turning to B.


Thx again,