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Messages - Albalaha

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1
Slot? What the hell! Is it a spam message? First post propagating a casino and slots.

2
XXVV,
            What is your prediction for these crypto by the end of this year, pricewise average rates:
 1. BTC
 2. LTC
3. Binance
4. Ripple
5. Doge

             Will Doge touch USD 1 or it will sink to lower level?
Thanx

3
Quote
betting "both side", would at least,
 "minimise losses",
and
"maximise profit",
 and after long run, still profitable...


          Whatever you think is due to your desire to win small sessions which is tough to manage. I think for the long run where I have to win with my bet so why bother betting both sides together. It will look weird and also calculating both together would be tougher than you can imagine.

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need to do some long simulation, to see what happen ...(eagerly waiting for your finding...or am I too naive...hahaha...
            You are not naive but you lack simulation skills so have wild dreams that this should work without evaluating. To get something benefit you first of all the basic logic should be flawless then simulations help. If you lack the logic or simulation, you will stay confused and naive forever. Either you do it yourself or get help from someone.

4
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I think, betting a fixed, "player only", or bet "banker only", will inevitably meet harsh negative extreme.

     Wong, whether you play "Player only" or "Banker only", or alternate them every hand or Play the dominant one, all will face variance of same strength still. Come out of this nave thinking. Playing the better one doesn't help in the long run by an iota.
Your problem for such misbeliefs is due to inability to simulate. You can not get a better bet by doing anything. Every bet is as good as its probability to win.


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What the MOST hit in any 1000 consec trials  for each side (B and P) ? Thx in advance.

     558 and 548. You should get the MAX seeing the Least of its counterpart when Ties are already removed from counting.

5
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I agree it(pospro) may not win to infinity trials.

It doesn't win average shoes as well. It needs better than average times to win. I do not say, streaks do not come but if we see the overall impact of any of your favorite positive progression, it won't win a net profit, most likely after any 10 random shoes. Let us all have your favorite positive progression here to be evaluated.

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I also like that no casino rules that require us to play 100% of our wins back through the casino.

They do not ask us to gamble at all. We do that and lose our money too apart from any coincidental win that we got from casino. This is true for 99% gamblers. We lose money in the endeavour of winning more and not for any guilt of winning money from casino.

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negative progressions if used cautiously could surpass over 10 millions spins test on roulette while I did it with Ophis.   

     that's impressive--Im guessing it was a same-side wager(e.g., black or red?)

         I did this 8 years back with one of the finest programmers on any forum, Ophis. We surpassed all data that we could put our hands over. Over 10 millions spins of roulette were beaten, mercilessly. We bet all sorts of bets from EC to single number. It was a controlled negative progressions, kind of brute force attack on all bets possible in roulette. You can feel it here:
https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=808.0

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*Side Note: I have only played one shoe in my lifetime across thousands of shoes that neither P or B showed 3 in a row same-side wins(ppp or bbb). That particular shoe only had one 3-consec chop(near the end).

 Well, probability to get a ppp or bbb is 1/8 roughly so in 72 hands of a shoe, one should get it 9 times averagely. You said you saw only one shoe of such kind where no PPP or BBB occurred, well it is actually rare and remote to happen frequently but if you get one or two such wins in a shoe, it should not be enough to get you a net profit.[/size]

6
Albalaha's Exclusive / Positive Progression vs Negative Progression
« on: June 19, 2021, 06:24:49 am »
Well, I m not into writing pages long posts but this debate is one of the hottest debates for gamblers. Many assert that as the name suggests itself a positive progression like Parlay is the way to play. It ensures big wins and loses least in the worst times. Looks impressive, isn't it?
            Problem area with a positive progression is twofold:
1. It either requires more wins than losses or clumping wins or both
2. You can't guess when more wins than losses or clumping wins will occur.

Normally, with every game having house edge, getting more wins than losses or getting clumping wins when you are betting for it could be as much difficult as trying to win with a ten steps martingale. You might win till you lose.
  Rather, negative progressions are based upon more realistic premise. Even Martingale or Labouchere are mathematically guaranteed to win(irrespective of how many chips they might need) but there is not even a single positive progression known to win in the long run simulations.
 Mostly believers of trends or patterns believe in positive progressions too. They have a gut feeling(however they can't illustrate them ever) that they can identify patches where they can ride on winning streaks and come home winner daily.
     Being real,  in an EC bet, at worst times, getting a WW(two consecutive wins) could drag upto 60 trials. In no manner, you can predict anything in a random game and daydreaming of being safe and keep winning with any positive progression alone is childish.
       Negative progression might not be as sharp or dangerous as a martingale or labouchere. There could be many variants which could safely work to win avoiding big losses and winning despite lesser wins than losses both.
      Positive progressions will help only if someone can ensure more wins than losses which is impossible in a random game.

More later...........

7
Negative progressions might not be as negative or imprudent as a martingale or labouchere. Rather, negative progressions are based on more realistic premise, i.e. expecting lesser wins than losses while positive progression either presupposes more wins than losses or looks for clumping wins. If you simulate any so called positive progression in the long run, it can't win there while negative progressions if used cautiously could surpass over 10 millions spins test on roulette while I did it with Ophis.
         A hybrid progression meant to cater all types of variance and average results is the most prudent way to play, in my humble opinion and experience.

8
General Discussion / Re: New forum version / Rebuilding
« on: June 09, 2021, 04:53:45 am »
Hmm. The board looks modern and classy both. :applause:

9
In revaluating the long run variance/dispersion trouble, I saw that at worst, an EC might get 400 Wins vs 600 losses in 1000 trials but that could have all sorts of ugly patches. If someone passes through such troublesome times, patience and mini stop losses will make someone surpass that. One might not play long enough to face such extremes but one should be ready for that.

10
Albalaha's Exclusive / When to bet
« on: May 30, 2021, 06:52:14 am »
In an EC bet, including baccarat, roulette, craps or any other game, we can not get benefit by picking any bet (although we can opt more harm by choosing some bets with more house edge like "Tie" bet in baccarat) but with a statistical point of view, 


 Probability to win in
1st Attempt= 50%
2nd attempt=25%
3rd Attempt=12.25%
and so on.
               If you utilize this long run probability, you can decide when should you bet and what should you expect statistically. If you think of short run session play, you might see variance but this is set in stone in the long run. This also helps in configuring your own "extreme variance management".

More later>>>>>>>>

11
If the probability of getting at least 40 Wins of Player in 100 consecutive hands is nearly 95%, it means that averagely 5 out of every 100 sessions(OF 100 HANDS EACH) could have harsher(lesser than 40 wins) outcomes. This average is only an average and layers of probability could even bring 20 such harsher sessions in a span of 100. That is what we call variance.
              Problem is, can you win in 40/100 case with any strategy that does not kill you when you do not get even that?

12
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: May 27, 2021, 02:48:04 am »
Quote
Think what can do two players who have found out that the game is beatable by flat betting and the other one by getting a long term profit even when the W/L ratio is shifted toward the right.

    Nope. Both can not work together as they are based upon altogether different premises. I consider baccarat to be absolutely random and absolutely unrelated with card points, hands number, dealer, dealt/burnt cards so far etc. If these considerations can work to help even slightly in predicting outcomes, we do not need an MM strategy, at all. If all these combined gives us even 1% edge against the house, we just need to keep betting the biggest unit fearlessly. With an edge, we will win from casino as easily as casino wins from us. Simple.
I must congratulate you for having an edge against the house in a "so called random" game. Momentary drawdowns should not deter you.

13
Wong,
           I recently checked Zumma 1600, 117k+ hands of baccarat without Ties. In Player, 442 was the least hit in 1000 consecutive trials and 452 for Banker. I believe it could be 400/100 as the worst being 5SD. As I said repeatedly, it could be even 300/1000 at a point of time and we need not win that span but stay least harmed. Winning in the long run can not include winning 5SD variance. Bear reasonable losses in such one in millions case and get a net win gradually thereafter. If you can do that, you have got an HG.

14
Negative variance, I insist is the biggest enemy of gambling. Had there been no negative variance everybody will win with any negative progression. However, it is also true that variance has a virtual limit and if one plays to win in the long run with patience of a stone, he can win for sure.
         I was referring to the writings of Dr. Ion Saliu, a noted mathematician and found the golden words,
"The degree of certainty DC rises exponentially with the increase in the number of trials N while the probability p is always the same or constant.
DC = 1 (1 p) ^ N
Simultaneously, the opposite event, the losing chance, decreases exponentially with an increase in the number of trials.
".
  We only strive to win in the short run, thereby making gambling a game of chance than a game of skill/logic/math. In the long run, it is always very smooth road.
     Playing for long run doesn't mean we need to play 24x7x365. We can add all our sessions and consider them as playing in the long run.

15
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« on: May 24, 2021, 06:29:36 am »
Asym,
          While I can argue on many aspects but am sure about one thing. To lose with Player or even Banker bet (banker bet is not destined to get a net win either), in the long term house presupposes three things:
1. Flat betting will be done, which is bound to lose as you can not find any logic to get more wins than losses in Player, in the long run or way to offset house fees if you choose Banker.
2. Crazy progressions will lose even more and faster
      and I firmly believe that both are set in stone. Only difference one can make is doing either of these two:
1. Somehow manage more wins than losses in number to offset the house edge and house fees and win flat bet;or
2. Somehow win more money and lose less despite more losses than wins(in numbers) and that too without any order.

                      I spent thousands of hours in trying both and personally experienced that I should strive in latter. If you can do something to better both or even in one, it is heavenly. Everything else is empty futile attempt. We can define and code and simulate all sane ideas whereby we can play manually and there is no room for guessing whether what we are thinking should work or not.

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