AsymBacGuy reply to my post above:

"...KFB wrote:

I have often pondered how I could convince the casino to offer a bet on Ties with a rule that high card wins (or low card).

I find particularly interesting this passage, can you elaborate a bit?
  ..."

I was just making a general comment on how the casino benefits from offering more /more bonus bets as these hedges weaken our placement of an EV+ wager. Especially when we can't win all bets on a single outcome but the casino can. I commonly see players wager all of three or four bonus bets along with a Tie, and then at the last second toss out a wager on a Side bet(P or B). IMO there are more optimum methods to win consistently(& most certainly wagers with a lower SD).

Re: Ties--I see a lot of players constantly wager a side wager(P or B) along with the Tie(which pays 8:1 in my casino markets). So a Tie bettor is not only wagering on a lesser quality bet but also hedging the side bet(We can't win both).

Re:Tie bet--Its certainly countable, however, at an 8:1 payout my opinion is that one would find more value counting another bonus wager such as Panda8 or Dragon7,...etc. If you are fortunate enough to play in a market that offers 9:1 on Tie bet then I would be a little more interested in Tie wagers.

"IF" I was going to put forth alot of effort counting Ties(@ 9:1) I would just make that my main wager(only wager if possible). Yet again the casinos(most) require one to also place a side wager(P or B) for the opportunity to wager a T, or any bonus wager. Most cas don't allow capping your neighbor's wager (At least in my market the capping is not allowed).


My earlier thought in above post: "I have often pondered how I could convince the casino to offer a bet on Ties with a rule that high card wins (or low card). ..."

None of my casinos offer such a wager/ I haven't seen anywhere in USA. Possibly offered in other countries or @ online casinos. However, if they did offer such a layout it would be very countable(& potentially lucrative) wager. Depending on the payout I would likely focus on the Low Tie.

Re: Tie Bettors.
I have encountered only one single player that uses the Tie bet as his bread/butter approach. He tracks/counts a few things. He hasn't given me the "secret ingredient" to his recipe (Nor have I asked). However, I'm guessing he tracks face cards and maybe even numbers too(0,2,4,..etc), and waits for a certain threshold count# is hit before wagering. Only wagering when the count is EV+ ,...etc.
When I play with him, I do allot a few wagers from my buyin to wager a T when and if he likes the setup(Often in the latter stages of the shoe), and typically only <=2-4 times per shoe.

*Note I have never pursued or researched or studied Tie wagers much so maybe something out there with the T bet that I do not know.



Continued Success,

Thx 8OR9, good links.

Even if one isn't involved with cryptos or crypto sites I encourage all to have an advanced cyber security company monitoring your home internet/ cell phone (A company that will actually see the perpetrators get prosecuted/ not just block the attack).

The following link re: crypto scams is a good read.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninabambysheva/2022/12/28/over-3-billion-stolen-in-crypto-heists-here-are-the-eight-biggest/?sh=14995c07699f

AsymBacGuy in post 942:

"...At baccarat things are more restrained than what math dictates as each shoe is a world apart and deeply dependent to the actual card distribution.

Is this a "too general" statement to get a possible advantage from?

Bighorn.sh.it.

Anyone knowing the Smoluchowski's 'probability after effects' concept (not mentioning other statistical tools improving such idea) understands that an event or two (or more) events present sd values way lower than binomial independent models,..."


The key words (Restrained, Dependent) in your above statement are where a lot of players(and mathematicians) tend to have a difference of opinion.
I like to think of it as outcomes (i.e., event streaks) approach limits and these restrictive limits is why one outcome (say a total of 9) will not show 15 consecutive times for one side(P or B),  or why we never hear of P (or B) winning 40 consecutive times...etc.
I know this is an extreme example but IMO every single event outcome is never absolutely 100% independent (in card games such as bac).


Continued Success,

alrelax above:

Empowering Yourself 2024

    Good thread as we all start a new year of gambling.

I just returned today from a multi-night road trip to bring in the new year. Though I played multiple session each day of this recent 3-day/night trip I still took a few minutes to reflect back on my year of gaming while on this trip. Tomorrow I will do some year-end totals/closure and file my shoe /gaming results away. I will start the new year with optimism and very few changes (if any).


This particular trip I finished two days in the negative (-7U,-6U) and positive on the last day(+11U) for a net -2u for the trip. Nothing significant on any of the sessions or days. Typical swaying back and forth and as often the case a net winning (or net losing) day was often a function of winning that one or maybe two wagers in key spots. So my losing sessions do not cause much if any emotional change (as I lose sessions quite frequently ). However, I generally don't finish Net- after a whole day of 4-6 shoes. No biggie as my win days aren't always huge wins either.

This frequent hovering around -0- is by design as my M.O. is to stay disciplined and not try to force my will upon the shoe but to wait patiently for the shoe results to come to me. It keeps one on an even keel so that when that gravy-train shoe presents my balance isn't in a severe deficit and most of the streaks put me a strong positive balance. Ditto when Im fortunate and get in sync with an event streak as I try to not get too overly excited afterward. Simply reset, rinse and repeat.


Empowering Yourself 2024


From above I find the following very important and paramount to any gamer. The more one plays the more imperative the application.


1) Begin with a ritual of REFLECTION on your play.

*5) Engage in a real Money Management Method (MMM) that benefits yourself, your play and control with the  sessions you engage in. But engaging in it with a solemn adherence.

7) Concentrate on yourself, as in You-Vs-You at the table. It is all about you and only you. Do not let yourself be distracted with all the verbal and physical doings at a table.

*8- Allow your Money Management Method to have the last words at a session. Win, Lose or Draw. This is different than engaging in the MMM, (#5 above), this is the faith, grace and priority of applying a session closure, which is vital and the most important.


*I feel that 5 and 8  are the most important by far. I keep meticulous records from every shoe I play. I find it helpful to make notes on my scorecard as to what event or streak contributed the most toward the net+. Developing (and applying) 5 and 8 on every single session is what allows one to play the game without emotion regardless of if we finish the session net - or net+. It really helps one (or at least me) to treat gaming as a business or similar to investing in the stock market.




I hope all of you have a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2024.

It looks like u are a skilled chef.

Hi all,

AsymBacGuy in post #939 above:

"...Who we are to dispute the common notion that bac is an unbeatable game?

Answer: because we have managed to assign a code (albeit being imperfect) to each shoe dealt, a code capable to restrict the sd values typical of binomial models.
In poorer words, past hands make substantial variables to get advantage from.  ...,"

b]a code capable to restrict the sd values typical of binomial models.[/b]

That sounds promising. Though I am not 100% clear how you are applying your algos I do like that it appears you are attacking streak length(s).Though I think it could only be at brief moments and potentially only a very very few wagers per shoe. Maybe I'm wrong and not considering whatever you are considering.

    I agree anything a player does to lower SD values is good for the player. Meaning fewer wagers is nearly always superior to more wagers. I can not imagine trying to beat bac wagering every hand.
One of the greatest advantages we have at bac is ones ability to choose when to wager as well as when we do NOT have to wager(meaning not required to have a bet to play).
 
*MEMO Reminder--Do NOT play Bac solo at casinos that refuse to offer free hands.

RE: Asyms' topic of reducing SD values/ number of bets with the selective application of Algos.
Pardon me Asym as I may get a little off topic in the following,



I perceive much of what the casino does(Must wager every hand, drawing rules, cut/burn, bonus bets,new superduper layout designs with additional bonus wager...etc) is designed to increase the number of wagers the players will bet(which increases these hedges,i.e., Pushes) where the player absolutely can not win all bets with one outcome (but we can lose all). That is, T or pushed events are not designed to help the player.

**Re:Bonus bet layouts, new variation of games,...etc: As an addendum thought I do believe there is one layout in recent years that actually could be exploited(or at least Less Bad). I don't have one in my market, and I won't mention on a public forum. Most of u know which version I'm suggesting.

As a side note, I believe the main benefit to Bac vs most dice games is the fact it is finite(meaning marbles are removed from the jar after every draw). Like Asym hints at above---there will always be brief moments in a finite shoe where the advantage(or disadvantage) has fluctuated from expectation.

But I digress. So back to Asyms Topic:


Q: Asym , re: Restricting SD. Do you mean applying something like Markov Chains and say after seeing three events IAR(in a row), you are then trying to predict the distance to absorption??? Not at all? Other?

*Re: Markov Chains.

Though applicable to some casino games. It's my opinion we have to be careful trying to generalize from say true 2-outcome games such as coin flips (no ties or pushes as every single event must be 0 or 1), vs games like Bac where every single event can be (0,1, or other). These "other" outcomes hurt the bac player.  IMO because it is favorable to the casino to increase Ties (or pushes). The more the better for the casino as we sometimes "lose a win". Furthermore, we not only lose a win we also have shorter streak length (Hypothesis by Kungfubac). I have often pondered how I could convince the casino to offer a bet on Ties with a rule that high card wins (or low card).


Any thoughts or counter arguments?


Thx in advance,

Merry Christmas to all.

May the wind always be at your back throughout the new year.





Continued Success,

Thx AsymBacGuy for responding to my Q above.

________________________________________
Asym in another post above:

"...I reckon that 99% of the bac players try to follow trends, hoping that something will prolong until one unfortunate event will stop a possible winning streak.

Let me know how many 5/5+ streaks come out on average at every given shoe dealt.
I guess they are showing up by a nearly 2/32 probability, the remaining situations belong to a 30/32 intermediate world.

Obviously a very experienced player is capable to grasp the subtle spots where things would come out clustered or not, it's a very difficult task to achieve and that's why 99.9% of bac players donate their money at the tables...."

Well said.


My preference is to wager a Positive Progression against a negative-probability events' continuance.


Continued Success,

alrelax above:
"..You too may have triggers that cause you to get lost in interpretation rather than staying present; you may even have a pattern of interpretation that shuts your mind down but have never realized it's happening because you are so accustomed to it. For sure, there are so many different experiences vying for attention in any given moment that in order to deal with what seems like an overwhelming amount of stimuli the mind rushes to interpretation to gain a sense of control. In reality, though, interpretation creates a false impression of stability. A.."

Good post. I agree for most part. I think ones triggers are sometimes helpful(or hurtful--depending how one interprets) if one realizes it is shoe specific(only this shoe), and may or may not extend to future shoes. It is easy to confuse a correlation as being causal. When, it actually is just something that is correlated with a desirable outcome.

*A funny story. A few years ago I was at a table that displayed Ties as green balls. It was early December and my wife/I had just decorated our Christmas tree and for whatever reason she wanted red balls at the distal end of each tree limb.
The next day I was at the Bac table and noticed the first two Ties(green ball) were at the end of a B streak of three or four in a row and the next decision always cut to Player(Green ball at bottom end of red B streak displayed on tote board). I reflected that was similar to our Christmas tree decoration pattern.  I typically don't wager Ties and do not really note much about Ties. However,  I started wagering for Player everytime I saw a Tie(at end of B streak). This shoe had 13 Ties (all at end of a Banker column),and every T cut to Player. I picked up a Win after every Tie from starting with the third tie onward.

Correlation and certainly not causal. I've never noticed since.



Continued Success,

Albalaha above:
"December 16, 2023, 04:53:06 AM
Look at Nano today. It is at $1.2 today."

I saw that and thought of your post when u first mentioned Nano @ 0.69 a couple months ago. I started tracking it then (I didn't buy any). I researched it some then and actually perceive it has more merit vs many in this sector (Not saying much). I noted it when it hit 0.82 and then in a couple weeks noted it was at 1.20. The companies' prospectus sounds optimistic/ more realistic vs many cryptos. Much of my optimism is due to founder/admin as they appear to have a solid track record.
However, they (like any crypto) can literally make up any claim or promise (just like todays stock market I guess). I saw a statistic recently that suggested over 50% of companies on the stock exchanges are bought/sold based on algorithms trying to predict how buyers/sellers will react (In other words not because a company builds a superior product). Now days it appears many companies spend much of their budget on hype and to just pay a marketing team to "say" their product is superior.



*My main reason for not trying to purchase Nano yet is that I can't use it to purchase a product with a higher intrinsic value(precious metals). Most companies(ones I do business with) only allow five or so: btc,eth,doge,shib,bch,ltc.  Im optimistic this list will expand in the future.
 
I consider the main benefit for purchasing any cryptos at this stage is to utilize the volatility for quick profits. However, one should be alert/don't get caught holding too long. Volatility works both ways.

**I actually think one should utilize approx 2.5% of one's investment portfolio to swing for homeruns (cryptos or other new startups). That could be crypto or any other latest trend.

Same as in gambling. I encourage one to occasionally take one unit of profit from the winning sessions (Even if one typically wagers flat or negpro). Parlay two times(3 wins), collect, then start pressing again with a graduated %(and as always lose your last wager in a W streak).

For example, let's say your typical buy in is $4k with a base unit of $120. Your win goal is >=3units. However, in this session you quickly grab a 4.5 unit win which is slightly larger than normal for you. Take one unit ($120) and Win --go to 250, Win--go to $500, collect 500/add $5 for a $505 wager. Win 505 add $60(.5 of a base unit=$565 next bet), Win at 565--add $40 (.33 of base unit),...etc, til it loses.

THEN, immediately do your homerun trot straight to the cashier's cage.


Cheers,

Thx alrelax on info re: Chime.

"...I do carry, with a couple of them having many thousands of dollars withdrawal ability per day, with no charges at designated ATMs, a great card is Chime. Chime allows $1,000.00 a day deposit and you could do it at Walgreens and there is zero charge to deposit. ..."


I did not research that one as it was 4-5 years ago. I have noticed the Chime commercials in past couple years.

*The key is to find one that fits ones' personal objective. They each seemed to have some little quirk (e.g., High daily withdrawl, deposits), yet maybe low ATM daily max with high ATM fees. I have only withdrawn from a casino ATM one time(once being the key word). I "think" the transaction fees totaled $8.75 (on 500, "ouch") as my bank AND the transaction company zinged me.


Continued Success,

Thx ADulay. I booked a trip to Macau as the Covid nonsense started(Within a week they cancelled my trip).It is still on my bucket list though I haven't pursued it since.

Pay the approximately $35 round trip fare on the super fast jet boat and you could day trip Macau with no problems at all.

My plans were to stay the first five days with a friends' parents in Hong Kong and do the ferry daily(I "think" it was $75 when I checked). Then I was scheduled to spend the latter part of trip at Sands property.
*It was interesting (and concerning) that as soon as I booked my trip (and for a couple months afterward) I was bombarded with offers to "Check my passport/verification/additional requirements,....etc" ,(for a $fee of course). Though as a visitor and only staying 10 days, nothing additional was required.


Continued Success,

Thanks Asym. Another excellent post.

"...So Lucky 6 is particularly sensitive of 6s, then 7s/8s/9s; F-7 is sensitive of 7s and 0 value cards, then 2s,3s,4s,5s and 6s. Etc.

More key cards (different ranks) influencing a side bet apparition make it to be less attractive as we do want short gaps between two hits.
Then more cards are needed to form a final hand eliciting a winning side bet, less likely we'll get short gaps between two hits.   ..."

]F-7 is sensitive of 7s and 0 value cards, then 2s,3s,4s,5s and 6s. Etc.[/b]

Can you elaborate more on the part about 0-value cards. I understand the importance of the 7-value card, as well as the ratio of 4,5,6,7 : 8,9. However, I haven't considered much about the effect of 0-value cards(removed to remaining), as to how they influence the F7 showing(other than the 7-card needs two face cards).


Thanks in advance,

Bit-Con(I mean bitcoin,aka BTC) hit $44,000 this week 12/7/23.

I do not own any bitcoin at present. I did buy some BITI(Short Bitcoin) @ 13.01 this past week. I will likely buy more if this (BITI) drops further as Im in the process of laying the groundwork to "lock-In" a snare (Kungfu Grip)    around Bitcoins' neck as it tanks and does all kinds of wild swings/gyrations going forward.

IF I owned bitcoin and in the (+) I would be concerned/ lock in additional profits while there is time left. Just my opinion.

Some interesting thoughts about Bitcoin(Not necessarily all my thoughts though I agree with most):

A Big-Time Bit-Con Pump Is Underway



Bitcoin $BTC has reached one of its most overbought levels in the last 3 years. It's also the most extended above the 200D moving average since the November 2021 peak.

In April 2021, Bloomberg made the bold prediction that #Bitcoin will surge above $400,000 by the end of year. Instead, we entered the longest BTC bear market on record, and tumbled under $16,000. Now, as the short-term bull trap grows, mainstream media is back at it, predicting $500,000, in an effort to lure in greedy retail investors for exit liquidity. The crash that follows is inevitable. Unfortunately too many investors are blinded by greed to secure profits. They will just repeat their same mistakes as last time.

When the media is bullish, you should be worried.

.04% of Bitcoin addresses own 62% of all BTC. But its totally decentralized and for the people



Continued Success,

Dragon Tiger or Baccarat – Which Offers Bigger Winnings?