I think he was unlucky to be lucky with those 200:1 shots.

It's quite simple to understand that B/P hands cannot be beaten so easily (or nothing at all), however side bets seem to be fantastic to recover losses or to make fair profits, unfortunately in the wrong hands they lead to disaster more rapidly.

I observed in Vegas that many former huge B/P bettors now prefer to make progressions on side bets. Many of them quit the game after hitting one.
I remember a regular middle age asian woman hitting a F-7 for $800 then leaving the table but making the huge mistake to observe the table and not to go home.
Next hands of the shoe produced the like of 5-6 panda bets and a couple more of F-7s.
She was cursing and cursing and so disturbed to make a second error, that is to join the closest table where a new shoe was ready to be dealt.
Naturally no one side bet came, and no one side bet came on the very next shoe.
At least she was so smart to finally going home losing just a small amount.

Al, how many consecutive real live shoes have you seen without at least one panda or one F-7?
Thanks!

as.

Perfect, BA!

That's another aspect of what I was talking about.

My patterns are just the best (imo) way (and more are coming) to get the best of it providing a careful assessment of what happened in the past.

Actually take any pattern you want, the more shoes you play/observe, better is the probability to get a kind of balancement ratio, especially if some patterns are more likely than  others.

Say we have a fictional player betting toward B singles and B 3s after any B double appearance.
That is we do not want to get one or more consecutive B doubles in a row.

This player is going to cross a 25% unfavorite/75% favorite ratio no matter what.
Actually there will be more B 3s than B singles after a B doubles, yet a card finite deck must act in some way in either direction.

Such player will get a finite number of isolated B doubles and a finite number of 2-in-a-row or superior B doubles. And so on.
Since the expected ratio is always 3:1, we know that itlr isolated B doubles will be almost equal to superior clustered B doubles.

Easy to see that splitting the outcomes into precise patterns will help us to restrict the variance.

For somewhat "weird" reasons, B doubles are going to distribute more balanced than other balancements.

The same for a fictional player betting toward two B doubles in a row vs the superior counterparts.

The process is more controllable up to 3 B doubles in a row vs the superior counterparts.

Since the overall slight baccarat propensity is to get opposite outcomes than previous ones, our 1-level, 2-level and 3-level fictional players are going to get more balanced results than expected.

In a word, we are trying to control the randomness as we are taking into account precise results itlr.
In fact, every single pattern (whatever considered) will fight against the same opposite situation up to a point where a given deviation MUST come back.
So there are no positive or negative patterns, just ratios.

Of course a 3:1 general probability might come out in clusters or isolated and the same happens (now in long term reversed situations) for the counterparts.

Since sooner or later unfavorite patterns must come out clustered to balance the more likely situations happening along the way, we know that our best strategy will be to hope to get such unfavorite pattarns being either isolated or not coming at all (up to a point).

Thus, our fictional players might start the betting process after having resistered that a given number of unfavorite events had come out, possibly by long clusters or in long alternating forms.

Try to test your shoes.
You start the $10 betting after a 4-5 opposite situation ratio had come out per each level of patterns, tripling the standard bet everytime you have lost the attempt.
If you triple up your wagers everytime after every single pattern had gotten a 4 or 5 to zero ratio, you are not going to encounter long negative situations by any means.

If you use the blue angel approach, your resistance to unfavorite situations will last a lot more.

Actually a possible martingaling tripling approach versus a superior 3-in-a-row B doubles approach after a 4-5 deviation had occurred  cannot cross any failure, providing you'll have the patience to wait. Guaranteed.

as. 







 

Quote from: Xander on May 06, 2018, 07:56:53 PM


In roulette my edge is 10 to 50% edge.  Method is vb and biased wheels.

Sorry, but biased wheels are just history (Garcia-Pelayo family) and VB theories cannot work on modern low slots edge wheels featuring an astounding bouncing effect due to a very low ball weight.
Even utilizing electronic (illegal) devices, there's no way one can predict the most likely landing area the ball will drop.

For that matter, even the Caro or Abbiati brand Monte Carlo wheels (the best to try a VB approach as they feature a huge slot edge) cannot guarantee an edge even by the use of instrumental devices as dealers spin the rotor at a very huge velocity which endores at maximum the random effect.

as.   

   

@blueangel. Hi!

Actually my super hyper over selected betting plan dictates to consider a single shoe just as a single leaf of a branch, the tree begins to form after 20-30 or more shoes and the forest is just the product of many many trees.

I'm not presenting magical patterns to chase, I've found such patterns as the best tools to greatly increse the probability of success that can't be anything else than the mathematical reflexes of what can happen or not happen per certain range of shoes.

I'm not guessing or chasing anything as I know very well the standard deviation values of those patterns, whether they'll come out isolated, in clusters, in clusters of isolated events or in clustered clusters. Everything per each single level of statistical apparition.

To explain the idea in clearer words, I'm betting from zero to 1 spot per single shoe. Always if my strict conditions are met.

In the 50.68/49.32 infinite process something is going to happen more likely than not even though our mathematical expectation will be negative no matter what.

as.

Quote from: Jimske on April 28, 2018, 03:54:44 PM
Looks good Assym.  One reason, as you point out, is the common occurrences of 1's and 2's - representing 50% of decisions.  By my way of thinking it is good to have a benchmark, a starting plan.  That way there is structure, something that can be explained.  You recognize there needs to be adjustments, fictional bets, MM, whatever.

Nope, P 1s and 2s represent more than 75% of total decisions.
In a perfect simmetrical model, 1s and 2s on each side are 75% of the total outcomes.

as.

 Jimskie, what do you mean?

as.

Well, if I'm going to play baccarat with Alrelax, gr8player, soxfan, Lungyeh and some others I would put on the table whatever I have on my name (sorry, a lot).

I think the probability to lose all is so remote that I could take the risk. With a loud fk u to the mathematicians.

as.

It's about Banker doubles distribution.

B doubles are fighting between B 3+ streaks and B singles.

Test your shoes and let me know how many times a B doubles will be followed by another B double streak or anything else.

No wonder, most of the time any B double will be followed by a pattern different to another B double streak up to a 4 level.

I mean that after a B double had come out,  the more likely scenario on subsequent B hand will be to get a B 3+ streak or a B single at different degrees.

We could classify such B doubles in such a way:

1- B double followed by another B double;

2- a couple of consecutive B doubles followed by another B double;

3- a triple of consecutive B doubles followed by another B double.

In a word, each class of B double situation will get a more likely different B double situation than expected and the more we are going deeply in the process the better will be our results.

Say we set up three fictional players betting toward NOT having another B double after a B double appearance by a 1-2 wager progression.

Number #1 player will lose whenever after a B double another B double will come out.

Number #2 player will lose whenever after a couple of B doubles a third B double will come out;

Number #3 player will lose whenever after a triple B double a fourth B double will come out.

Test your shoes and you'll notice that 4+ B doubles in a row will come out very very rarely.
It's up to us to determine how deep will be our loss.

The probability to get multiple B doubles in a row is inversely proportional to the number of B consecutive doubles.

Thus, a profitable and less risky plan is to bet after having waited that two or three B doubles had come out in a row.

Nonetheless, many shoes are presenting a single B double appearance.

Again, after a given deviation was reached, the probability to get something different than a B double is endorsed.

We want to set up a limit, that is a very unlikely 4+ consecutive B doubles appearance. After such limit was reached, we do not want to bet a dime.
As a 7 or more B doubles appearance could easily destroy our previous more likely profits.

Notice that per every class of distributions, a clustering effect will be in order, no matter what.
I mean that it will more likely to get single B double situations if a single B double situation had come out and the same happens for superior levels.

Moreover, B doubles are more likely to come out in clusters whenever few B singles had come out in the previous fragments of the shoe and vice versa.

Alrelax is right. What didn't happen so far is less likely to show up as a finite shoe is always a card dependent proposition and vice versa.

Actually and after millions of shoe tested,  the number of situations when consecutive B doubles are followed by single or 2-in a row B doubles are out numbered by the same opposite events.

What didn't happen could happen but what did happen could more easily happen again. Providing a careful classification of what we are registering.

as.     

   











   

       

Thanks for the huge interest on this humble post.

Believe me, the stupi.d strategy presented here (and more are coming) will get the best of it itlr with 1 million accuracy.

Say you put in action a player betting toward P 1s and 2s in any order toward getting at least a two pattern sequence and such player is eager to get a profit no matter what, so progressively increasing the bet forever and ever.
Like a 1-2, 4-8, 16-32, 64-128, 256-512 betting plan....

To lose (that is to not cross at least a favorite situation in 5 consecutive attempts) we need to test a lot of shoes.

Sooner or later such unfavourable and very unlikely situation will happen, destroying our previous profits.

Good.

But remember that per every class of 3:1 single losing situation, a more likely proportional winning situation will happen along the way.

We are acting with probabilities on our side, despite what mathematics dictates.

Actually, the number of two P 1s-2s  clusters will overcome the number of opposite situations.

Utilizing a more sensibile approach set up in order to reduce variance, say that the number of 1-2 P clusters will overcome the number of P superior classes. It's a sure long term finding. 

In a word, we are betting that P 3+ streaks are more likely to come out quite dispersed or at least with a pace different from 1 to the rest (where the rest is every possible situation, that is any combination of 1s and 2s superior than one).

Notice that consecutive 3+ P patterns aren't going to produce us any harm as we are not starting any betting.

Generally speaking, we do not want to bet toward what it didn't happen so far, as 2 level must come out after a 1 and not after a zero.

The more the actual shoe tend to produce zero o 1 situations, higher will be the propensity to not bet a single dime.

Remember that surely the more likely happens in clusters, but at the same time sh.it happens in clusters and a single shoe is just a minuscule part of the whole picture.

as. 

Quote from: Albalaha on April 27, 2018, 02:59:03 AM
Things are not that simple. Simulate a randomly picked big data of baccarat outcomes to know the real picture. If you can not do so manually, get it coded. Making statements of "unbeatable" is no child's play.

Yep. 

Of course without a math edge, nothing is "unbeatable".
Still this method is far better and simpler than the myriad of miracle systems sold everywhere.   

Moreover it was tested over thousands and thousands of simulated shoes, stuff that we are not certain is going to come out on real tables.

as.

Another good rule of thumb is to classify how previous 3+ P streaks had come out, if they come out by winning asymmetrical hands favoring the banker we should wait more favourable situations.

A betting variation is to stay at the same level when losing and raising the bet (by 20% or so) after a win, maybe for 4-5 times in a row.

Moreover I suggest to use this approach in a EZ bac table, where the HE is lower and for huge sums wagered we can bet the fortune 7-bet.

as.     

Dedicated to soxfan. :-)

We want to bet toward P singles and P doubles vs P 3+s by a multilayered progression.

Betting requisites.

We'll bet a 1-2 unit progression whenever a P single or a P double had come out, in order to get at least a two P 1-2 clustered succession in any order. After winning the first (single) or second (double) event, we stop the betting waiting for another 1 or 2 P situation and going over and over. Meaning we have to wait a 3+ appearance cutting the pattern.

In a word, we'll lose anytime the shoe will present situations as 2-3 or 1-3. Anything different from that (as 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 or 2-2), will go in our favor.

The average number of 3+ streaks on P side is 4.5, so we are quite favored to get many 1-2 or 2-1 profitable patterns, moreover we won't bet a dime after a 3+ streak. That is consecutive P 3+s streaks won't harm us.

The probability to look at consecutive 1 or 2 single situations is so low that you'll need a lot of work to find them.

Multilayered progression.

Since we are not stu.pid, meaning that the very unlikely can come out anytime, we 'll set up our initial bet as 5-10 (at $10 limit is $50-$100).
Anytime we'll win we stay at the same level for two times, then we'll go down at the 4-8 level and so on, up to the 1-2 level.
Anytime we lose we'll raise our bet by 20%, so a 5-10 losing bet will followed by a 6-12 bet (at $10 limit, it's a $60-$120 bet)
Again, after a win at a given limit we stay at that level for two times globally (once more), then we go to the immediate lower limit.
And so on.

Statistical issues

Shi.t happens either isolated (more likely) or in bleeding clusters (very less likely), thus after a 3-1-3 or 3-2-3 consecutive pattern appearance I suggest you to not bet a dime until a new fictional 1-2 winning pattern had come out. Many times this means to wait the next shoe.

Notice that more likely than not, an early P 3+ streak apperance will followed by many 3+ streaks than what the opposite situation will do.
Especially whether such 3+ streak is immediately followed by another identical 3+ streak. 

Notice that if you wait some fictional losses, your win rate will be enlarged even more.

Lol, Al.

That's why I always quit the table without knowing whether my side bet would have won.

Actually, in the story I mentioned above, I left my second fortune-7 bet while running to the restrooms.
When I came back, the dealer picked up the magic ace from the deck!

Another story, this time a sad one, happened to me at Lucky Dragon casino in Vegas.

I was losing around $1200 or so, my $25 bet on fortune-7 was there when my cell phone rang.
Dealer instructed me to remove all bets while answering the phone and I obliged.
It was a stupid fkn automated advertising call and in the meanwhile banker got a 5 to make a fortune-7...

A call which costed me $1000.
While exiting the casino, I cursed to the fkn lettuce leaf supposed to bring luck to the players. And you know very well what the lettuce mean for asian people. In reality I'm not asian. :-)   

as.

Al, give us some stories about people you've seen betting huge on ties.
Btw, I like ties. :-)

as. 

Nice presentation, thanks Al!

I would add the house edge percentages on such bets.

Three-Card Nine Beats Three-Card Eight
House edge 16.65%.

Any bad beat
HE 6.88%

Natural Nine Beats Natural Eight,
HE 8.46%

Eight Beats Seven
HE 18.35%

Btw I've recently seen the fortune-7 coming back to back to back. Three times in a row!
I even remember the cards:

1- player got  5, banker zero, ace to the player and 7 to the banker
2- player got  4, banker  6. 7 to the player and an ace to the banker (amazing!)
3- player got zero, banker a 4. 3 to the player and another magical 3 to the banker.

Ironically only me and another player raised the bets, the rest keep betting the same and two i.diots even removed their $5 after the first win.
Nobody including me bet the "any bad beat", again ironically this is the best bet to make among baccarat side bets (besides the dragon bonus on P). :-)

At the time I didn't know the house edge values but I thought to be very high on the 7/8 bad beat. And I was right.

as.