Quote from: Jimske on June 20, 2017, 09:06:34 PM
Didn't I already post that over 5000 bets ?  a while back?

I'm surprised you haven't played the game anymore having such a good win rate!
Probably you like more to sailing than gambling. ;-)


as.

What about your win rate Jimskie?

as.

Don't tell me casinos keep taking the right side of the struggle no matter how much players try to be smart.

Sigh.

as.

How much does it cost this book?

I guess it would be a quite high price given the HG premises.

Anyway I like when someone writes a book on gambling.
So congratulations mr Tabone!

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Hi Giz, nice to hear from you again.

Roulette numbers don't exist, there are just physical spaces to deal with.

Any roulette is different to another one.

Even same brand automated wheels will show different behaviours for reasons I've tried to explain in my blog.

Imo numbers 1,2,3 or 10,13,16 shouldn't be considered the same as 17,5,22 or 2,0,28.


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I'd be more careful about changing the avatar Mike. :-)

as. 

No time to see you, Jimskie!

Welcome back!

as.

Good point.
It's like saying how many spins need a silent roulette number to come out.

A 1/37 probability number on single zero wheel can be silent for 500-600 or more spins, so a nearly 1/45 shot (EZ Fortune Dragon 7) may be sleeping for over 700-800 hands that is 9-10 consecutive shoes. 

A decent general rule of thumb dictates that what happened may it happen again so empirically I'd bet toward such bets happening again, meaning that shoes containing one EZ bonus at the start are slightly more likely to produce more bonuses.

A good proof is about the pairs bonus so frequently offered at high stakes rooms: more often than not whenever a side is hit by a pair bonus the probability to get another pair bonus is slightly increased on that same side.

No advantages for us of course, but betting the opposite situation would be a total disaster.

as.



   

Aws work by what I name "controlled randomness", meaning that it's only the software which decides where the ball will most likely land for every spin.
In the effort to give the most random outcomes, we may suppose that only in very rare circumstances the software will set the same previous launching parameters for the next spin.

Indeed the amount of number repeats vs the human tables is lower, surely lower than 1/38 or 1/37 probability.

Moreover tha ball will interact with the same environment for every spin: temperature, humidity, uniformed force applied on the ball surface (no spin effect or constant spin effect), ball and slots cleanliness are costant. No employee sweat, no dust, I mean.

In a sense we might infer that the software knows at the start where the ball will land every hand, so our worries should be focused about the different air forces applied to the ball and about the "interfering agents" acting thereafter.

We know that the ball speed decays up to its falling point at the same velocity independently of the launching speed. So the only variable now is the position of the rotor in relation of the ball's fall.
In a word, a ball may make 35, 25 or 10 revolutions before falling but its falling speed remains a constant value.

Some manufacturers like to give the rotor different speeds or alternate clockwise and counterclockwise revolutions, but the point remains the same: software indirectly knows where the ball will most likely land.
At least without a more or less impact of the interfering agents.

The interfering agents are: deflectors, slots edge, ball weight/diameter and rotor speed.

Deflectors were originally inserted to amplify the random effect, actually and also according to L. Scott they tend to reduce randomness.

Slots edge plays a major "random" role as low edges tend to enlarge the bouncing and splattering effect but we'll see that even wheels presenting very low slot edges can be very profitable to play in.
The same considerations could be made about ball weight/diameter, but aws cannot utilize low ball weights and low ball diameters for obvious procedural reasons.

High rotor speeds increase the bouncing effect as the ball before its immediate fall will encounter a dynamic propelling object. But again this feature could be easily disregarded as such bias tend to equalize itlr.

In our long study we have considered many aw brands and good news is that everyone of them is perfectly beatable (providing different strategies acting in relation of the actual wheel). 

Now let's consider the most sophisticated aw ever built. It's an east european product.

This wheel has low edge slots, a quite low weight/diameter ball, the rotor alternatively changes its direction clockwise and counterclockwise, the rotor speed is quite high or very high, there are 16 deflectors and the space between rotor and wheel edge is almost double than many other products.
Should this be a perfect random machine, right?
It is.

However is quite interesting to notice that even in this very sophisticated machine the number of repeats is lower than what the probability laws dictate.

In our study we have even examined wheels having each four or five different launching points, naturally chosen randomly by the software.
And guess what? In this case too we got a lower number of repeats than expected.

Obviously the number of repeats is just one of the parameters taken into account, it can't be a value to build a strategy around.

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Quote from: alrelax on June 01, 2017, 01:29:57 PM

"What is the price for a winning baccarat system"?
"Do you guarantee the system, meaning—if I do not win will you refund my price"?
"If I cannot win, can I get a refund"?
"Are you selling a winning system, why are you selling it"?

The only sure winning system in the hystory of this game is the side bets card counting approach illustrated by E. Jacobsen in his book. It costs $49.99.

In this case, yes, Jacobsen refund any customer who demonstrates he is wrong. It can't happen btw. He's absolutely right.

Strange enough, Jacobsen wrote a book for advantage play in the meanwhile working for casinos' companies.

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Quote from: AsymBacGuy on June 01, 2017, 08:07:43 PM
Hi Garry!

Yes, airball roulettes are included.

Although many wheels are manufatured by the same brand, after a very long work we concluded that every single wheel presents its own characteristics easily detectable after two hundreds spins or so. 

The primary question, of course, is about the randomness of the outcomes.

The perfect randomness is only conceptual and on the other hand we don't necessarily have to find biased or unleveled wheels to get a possible strategical advantage.
Let the software make the work for us, maybe the hostinate research to produce random results eventually will act right on the opposite side...

And thanks to the other replies guys!

as.

Quote from: owenslv on June 01, 2017, 03:38:25 AM
It looks as if the future is tending toward automated, computerized wheels so obviously I am interested in your premise. Thank you for sharing.

Now, to be specific, are you including "air roulette" such as the game provided by Interblock ?

I'm a Canadian and frequent Fallsview Casino which, along with traditional DZ tables, has a few "electronic" versions, including the Interblock version.

Sure would nice to quietly exploit them.

Garry

Hi Garry!

Yes, airball roulettes are included.

Although many wheels are manufatured by the same brand, after a very long work we concluded that every single wheel presents its own characteristics easily detectable after two hundreds spins or so. 

The primary question, of course, is about the randomness of the outcomes.

The perfect randomness is only conceptual and on the other hand we don't necessarily have to find biased or unleveled wheels to get a possible strategical advantage.
Let the software make the work for us, in its achievement to constantly get random results eventually it tends to produce the opposite aim...

And thanks to the other replies guys!

as.

Quote from: 8OR9 on June 01, 2017, 02:16:17 AM
What is an automatic wheel?  The casino I go to has a wheel where the ball is automatically propelled on to the wheel...so I guess that's what you mean.....but I thought that was basically a slot machine and the ball would land where it would profit the casino.........but I noticed the same guys playing there for the past week or so....not sure if they are winning......but if they are, the casino will take out the wheel in a heartbeat.

Yes, it's a wheel where no human interferes with the numbers' outcomes yet it's a strict physical process.

No, definetely they are not acting as slotmachines, you can bet for few seconds after the ball is launched.

Yes, as long as casinos won't make money they'll remove them. Fortunately 99% of the players have no hints to overcome a huge 5.26% negative edge but you never know someone gets wise.
But tossing out such machines could be a serious problem for the ib brand.
For that matter even the less spread shfl brand will have the same problems. 

Of course besides banning the supposedly winning players, there are countermeasures to be taken. But they are costly.


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Quote from: 8OR9 on June 01, 2017, 02:09:29 AM
The problem with betting a W after a W and stopping when an L appears is that the
WLWLWLWL    sequence is very common regardless of the method you use.......also
the WLLWLLWLLWLL is unfortunately also very common.

Np free lunch in baccarat!

You are perfectly right.

Of course in the same scenario you depicted trying to get two wins in a row would be an economical disaster.

Let's make a further step.

That is betting toward WW after a W only after a given WW.. series has already formed. 
Of course in a perfect 50/50 game we'll get no hints about those WW series...they will be perfectly symmetrically placed, thus WL... patterns will be equal to WW....patterns.
Wait. if we manage to wager B side, we know that itlr WW>WL by any means.
But what are the best situations to try to get those WW patterns? Or, and it's the same, to get WLW or WLLW situations?

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