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Messages - Jimske

#61
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
February 20, 2019, 03:23:38 PM
Some minor health issues have kept me up here in the cold this winter.  But the silver lining is that I've been pouring over different ideas.  This thread has been thought provoking and has allowed me to look at a whole different perspective.  But more on that later.

Start with Assym advocating betting VERY few hands.  How many on average I'm not sure but he does suggest that some shoes are not playable.  This means visual inspection and visual inspection means looking for certain outcomes to decide if the shoe is worth placing a couple bets.  Somewhere back there Assym suggested betting B after a previous P single or double.  I showed the results on two of Alrelax shoes as examples.  But after looking through my "test" data of 50 shoes it appears that it doesn't work too well unless one looks for certain "patterns" or outcomes.  It works better if you look for sections of a shoe that has 1's and 2's - then make the bets he describes.  His comments about groups of singles seem to corroborate my assumptions.  Maybe Assym will opine on that theory?

However, for me that would be a tiresome way to play.  Particularly because where I play there are no back betting, the tables are full and many don't have screens.  But the whole thing got me thinking about patterns and groups.

Then Alrelax enters the conversation and "seems" to agree with Assym.  But, Al plays way more hands than Assym suggests and he uses Turning Points to change bet placement.  Looking for changes in the shoe is nothing new.  Defining them and exploiting them for profit a whole other problem.  I'll move over to Al's thread for further comments.

J

#62
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
February 18, 2019, 08:46:10 PM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on February 18, 2019, 02:44:56 AM
Imo to win at baccarat itlr, our plan must be considered in cycles adhering at most by taking into account just two steps:

1-  winning the first hand wagered is of outmost importance;
2- winning the second hand whether the first was lost.

This simple two step wagers plan considered by cycles must have each a higher 75% of success.

When it happens to be wrong at both opportunities, we need to be very careful to place more bets as strong negative variance is going to come out more often than we think.
Thus waiting to get a fictional positive outcome is not sufficient to restart the betting.

The reason is that baccarat is very similar to a coin flip endless proposition, therefore WW, WL, LW and LL sequences are presenting whimsically but itlr they'll be equal.

We cannot guess the lenght of the streaks, therefore we should simplify the problem by considering columns as singled or streaky (any streak).
Good way to minimize no. of bets.  I haven't done the math but the average of repeat "groups" and singleton "groups"(1 or more) is about 2:1 in favor of repeat.
Quote
It doesn't matter what strategy we like to adopt, what really counts is whether how many times we'll win the first or the second hand (really or fictionally), then classifying the results.
Right, but when considering a strategy of betting on these groups it's probably more favorable to bet on the repeat group.  Particularly since part of the singleton group includes a solitary singleton which occurs about half the time.
Quote

Since any bac shoe is a finite limited model, we know that more often than not a losing series won't be balanced by a perfect counterpart and the same is true taken in the opposite direction.

I mean that some shoes cannot be played at all as we do not want to find us in the position to guess the opposite of what our plan is dictating.

In a word, we'll be in a far better shape not playing certain shoes not fitting our plan at the start than trying to follow the actual shoe or, even worse, trying to hope to get balanced outcomes that have no room to show up.

Professional players like to bet a lot on very few spots and they never want to chase previous losses and it's not a coincidence that they'll stop the betting after two consecutive losses.

as.
How do we bet just a few hands or pick shoes and get the best of it?  I don't know what Assym has in mind about this but looking at the repeat dominance on a side to side basis might give some clues.

:)
#63
Kind of stimulating.

Great topic Glen, I have to pat you on the back with the fantastic insight!!!!!
#64
yeah well I thought you were going to explain the play from your turning point stuff from those shoes you put up? 


5- 10 proxy peeps?  Where?  This board is pretty dead.  Are you posting over at Baccarat Forum under another nick?
#65
Baccarat Forum / Re: 1-27-19 2 Shoes to Discuss
January 28, 2019, 08:52:27 PM
Quote from: Jimske on January 28, 2019, 04:09:17 PM
Thought i'd add Birthday Paradox (BDAY PAR) to the mix since it has some calculable odds.

SFC                  .8        8.55
L4                   4.75     13.5
BAC#1            7.15      2.55 (if flat then 4u and 1u respectively)
BDAY PARA         4        1

Doesn't mean these methods win ITLR. 

J
#66
Baccarat Forum / Re: 1-27-19 2 Shoes to Discuss
January 28, 2019, 04:09:17 PM
Looking forward to it!  One thing I can't figure is how people that you play with continue betting anti which they must be betting to get wiped out.  I don't see this.  I do see a lot of sitters when the long runs hit but few who continue.  Nothing wrong with betting anti in choppy shoe.  Even making a few bets for the longer runs to stop.  But after losing a couple anti got to either sit it out or try 1 bet on other side. 

For fun and got nothing much to do today.  Flat bet two of my fav placements and then added Assym Bac Strat #1 w/ 1-2 NP (the way I understand it)  Net wins.

SFC                  .8        8.55
L4                   4.75     13.5
BAC#1            7.15      2.55 (if flat then 4u and 1u respectively)

Doesn't mean these methods win ITLR. 

J

#67
General Discussion / Re: Help ourselves
January 26, 2019, 08:56:26 PM
Quote from: Gizmotron on January 26, 2019, 07:54:16 PM

My response already was: "I don't disagree with any of this."


To be quite clear I'll state it again. I agree completely.
OK, my bad.  I was under the impression you had a prediction method.
#68
General Discussion / Re: Help ourselves
January 26, 2019, 05:35:39 PM
Quote from: Lungyeh on January 25, 2019, 03:39:49 AM
Whether FTL or OTL, there will be times when each of the methods work like a dream and times when you will be taken to the slaughterhouse.

To my mind therefore, in this random game with periods of non random trends, the key to winning is in the Loss Management of your visit. Everybody wins at some point. When they start losing, they have to enforce strict discipline of Loss Management because the losses creep up on you. Win one lose two. Win two lose two. Win two lose three. Win one lose two. And soon the winnings and the capital are together decimated. Gizmo despite his professions of his ability to keep track of win/loss had his failings at this precise situation. Perhaps he has improved on it.  But in any case, my moot point is that Loss Management is the key. Not bet selection. But feel free to disagree.
It appears that the only regular posters that would disagree are Asym and Giz.
#69
My two cents re: App.

I've already suggested using Turnaround to determine bet amounts to place as a function of $ or units won/lost.  The other suggestion is to use the W and L IAR as a key for virtual and entering points since data has shown that LIAR is a static number that can be counted on.

An example would be to freeze bet amounts or sit out after x number of losses.  Then jump in at pre-determined points making bets that have relevance to loss/wins to date and target goals.


Good luck
#70
You've written a lot in this thread; most of which I haven't read though I did skim some of it.  My main criticism is that you've yet to pick a data set (shoe) and give a play by play account of your reasoning.  Fact is that we all need a reason to place a wager.

From what little I've read it's pretty clear that you base your methodology on past history of outcomes and a particular MM.  So far few, if any, have questioned or commented positively/negatively on your thesis.  One can only speculate the reason but dare I say it comes from a lack of understanding or interest?  Given the amount of time and energy to date perhaps it would behoove you to detail some specific examples.

I did read this whole post but had to stop where I did.  You make a lot of assumptions.  Building an argument on false assumptions can lead to false conclusions.
Quote from: alrelax on January 23, 2019, 02:57:48 AM
The most important part of wagering at baccarat is recognizing and developing the strategy.  A simple and good strategy will save more money than implementing the most advance and technically thought out attack of the game of baccarat.
Why?  Okay, perhaps an advanced method may be more difficult to implement without error.  Other than that I cannot see why one is inherently more efficacious than the other.
QuoteThe great news is that in most circumstances we have sufficient experience to actually develop a strategy even though most of us doubt the ability to do so.
Really?  I suppose this might be true for the wholly uninitiated "fun" gambler.  But as you well understand developing a strategy does not guarantee a win.  It's my opinion that most serious players entertain a strategy and spend time attempting to overcome its flaws (MM).
QuoteThe bad news is that we often write about or think about the Scope of Results before we discuss the strategy.
You go on using this term.  I, for one, cannot be sure of what you mean.  So I will guess that you mean that it's the horse before the cart?  People first decide how much they want to win and then attempt to "discuss the strategy" in order to have the means justify the end?

Maybe you don't mean that at all.  Can you please define your logic and how you've come to this conclusion?
QuoteToo often this is prematurely the thing that kills most of our chances.  Reason?  Because after COMPLETELY convincing ourselves that the characteristics which will happen, we begin to feel comfortable with our understanding of that specific event, yet to happen.
Certainly that event that's "yet to happen" is contrary to the characteristics we hope and strategize for.   However I honestly think that the serious player recognizes this and strategizes for it because he is NOT convinced he's working with the HG.  No, the serious player plans for changes.  And he may well use some of the techniques you have outlined in your writings.

But in the end, without a definable and duplicatable method we're all back to square one.  That is guessing.  And it matters not if you are following the roads are counting 1's and 2's.  As you point out what matters is a plan, discipline and MM.

It ain't rocket science, baby.  Hey, Hey!

P.S.But it's sure fun searching for the HG!  LOL
#71
Maybe this should be a new thread?

Quote from: Lungyeh on January 23, 2019, 08:03:36 AM
The app will not record results to predict the next bet. My idea was to have a recording app to keep track of  numbers of w/l/t and based on certain w/l results will restrict your betting amount. History has not changed the Baccarat outcomes. People win all the time only to hand back the winnings when on a losing streak. The app aims to record and prompt the user about amounts that are allowed to be placed and in certain circumstances, will reject any bets. Of course the user can just ignore but subsequent results will not tally.

The casino is a team. If we act alone the HE will stack against us. For most of us who lack Glen?s self control, we need to gather assistance. I read somewhere of a professional gambler who pays 10% of his winnings to his accomplice manager whose job is to keep the money under control on losing runs. I was hopeful the app could go some way to help.
Are you suggesting an app that essentially incorporates a stop loss to control the "chimp?"  Of course not.  Your app must use W/L registry and W/L amounts which will allow increased and decreased betting based on pos and neg accumulations.  Sure, there is a time to just walk away.  The problem we face is how to recoup  in a sensible manner.  That's why Glen advocates his MM method of lockup and walkaway.  But you got to be ahead first!!!!  And if you're not then there needs to be a sensible way to recoup from the get go.
#72
Quote from: Lungyeh on January 22, 2019, 01:50:12 PM
I wish to engage the services of a technical forum member who is an expert in developing a simple app for both Apple and Android if use is extended. But primarily for my own use to keep track of wins losses and provide guidelines on bet amounts based on bankroll capital n self input risk profile.

I wrote somewhere that the randomness of the game accentuated by certain periods of patterns would ensure that anybody at some point in their casino visit be making money based on their own bet selection preferences. But the key to walking out a winner is the ability to ride out the bad or Shar Chi period. It is my contention that loss management is the key to the holy grail. And I would like this small project to earn somebody here something even if it is small. Please PM me. Thank you and God bless
Your request reminded me of Ian Harmer's "Turnaround" which is based on the inevitability of win and loss streaks.  Here's a quote from his intro:  "The key to Turnaround is that it forces you to relate the value of your next bet to the depth of the doo-doo you're in, providing you with a constantly updated "win target."  Something like this could be put in an app for online betting.  It reminds me of the algorithm used in "price-cost averaging."
#73
The first sentence of a paragraph should give an idea of the content.  The last sentence should give the conclusion or summary and clue as to next paragraph.  So you're a good writer.  This allows me to NOT read everything but just read the firsr sentence and then decide to skip to the nexxt or not.  Thanks.

Allow suggestion?  A picture is worth a thousand words!  In your case maybe 5000 words?   :-)  How about this?

Pick a shoe (or two) at random and give a play by play explanation as to what and why the next play or move is according to your 'Sections & Turning Points.' 

J
#74
okay.  I'll plug my method for 4 mos access.  :-)
#75
AsymBacGuy / Re: Baccarat unbeatable plan #1
December 19, 2018, 02:22:47 AM
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on December 18, 2018, 11:59:58 PM
After years of studying baccarat I've come to the conclusion that the only way to win at this game is by properly assessing the number and distribution of BP shifts per each shoe.

Each shoe features an average probability to get this or that, first we should restrict the number of such this and that.

We cannot care less about long streaks, they are the best way amateurs try to get a profit by.
Long streaks or homogeneous patterns or predominance factors are just post hoc findings.
They will come at the right time or not.
As players we are compelled to restrict the "right time" within "now" or "very shortly" terms. A thing that the random world is laughing at.

Baccarat shifts move more from P to B than from B to P but itlr (and intermediate terms too) the number of BP shifts is equal, actually is slightly oriented to get more shifts than a perfect 50/50 proposition dictates.
Such conclusion came from testing millions of shoes.

We know that in a 50/50 perfect proposition itlr the number of singles and doubles will be very close to 75%.
Of course B singles and B doubles itlr will get a lesser amount than 75% compensated by the P outcomes.
How do you figure if singles = 18 and doubles (9 per shoe) = 18.  That's 36 or 50%.  ???