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Baccarat Talk

Started by Sputnik, June 11, 2019, 01:38:23 PM

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Sputnik

Asymbacguy post a strategy and I cannot forget about it.
But I see the approach with different observations.

I ask my self how many times does singles and series of two-strike before a series of three strikes.
Also how many times does a series of two and a series of three strikes before a series of four?

The match and probability are the same for both.
Equilibrium and imbalance/balance and the figures of the law of series.

Singles has the value of 1
Series of two has the value of 0
Series of three has the value of 1
Series of four has the value of 2
Series of five has the value of 3
And so it continues...

Series of two has the value of 1
Series of three has the value of 0
Series of four has the value of 1
Series of five has the value of 2
Series of six has the value of 3
And so it continues...

Now if you want to experiment you can make an observation list where you write down how many times singles and series of two-strike before a series of three.
Same for series of two and series of three against series of four.

This would even work using a series of three and a series of four versus a series of five.
Same math and probability.

The strike ratio is very high.
I been testing +2 units or break even with great success.
Don't forget that you get 83% reversals after a negative result flat betting.

Cheers



Sputnik


Here is a short sample - 20 session - flat betting

+20 units
-4 units
9 reversals

+0
+0
+0
+2
+0
+2
+0
-4
+2
+2
+0
+2
+2
+2
+2
+2
+2
+0
+0
+0




AsymBacGuy

Hi Sputnik!

What exactly do you mean for "reversal"?

as.
Baccarat is 99% skill and 1% luck

CLEAR EYES, FULL HEARTS. CAN'T LOSE
(Friday Night Lights TV series)

I NEVER LOSE.
I EITHER WIN OR LEARN
(Nelson Mandela)

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Sputnik


Koetsch simulated the statistical expectation for even money with 100 placed bets session samples for 600 times, total 60.000 placed bets with 1.7% house edge.
The following pictures show the stats and the expectation for each session.
1700 session or 17% out of 60.000 placed bets did not have a back to back result during 100 placed bets session, reversal.
43.000 played 100 placed bets session had at least one reversal during the session, back to back results, break even.

I implement this with my testing.
Each time a session starts with a negative or I get one negative during the session without reaching my win target.
Then I know that the majority of times I will get back to back results and break even.

Cheers

Sputnik

The length of the sequence with two dominant events following a certain amount of strength.
This is how the sequences look with the natural random order TRNG
100 sequences - short term observation for variance

2 1 3 4 5 1 2 2 3 3 2 3 9 1 2 11 1 2 5 2 9 2 1 21 3 1 13 8 14 1 10 1 1 3 4 3 1 1 3 1 4 5 1 1 6 2 2 2 2 7
3 5 3 12 2 1 2 6 12 2 6 4 5 4 5 1 2 2 2 3 1 3 4 2 2 2 6 1 1 2 1 5 1 2 4 2 20 5 10 3 1 1 9 13 6 15 2 4 7 1

Now if we put them into the order we will find the median value where the sequence has 50/50 likelihood going into less or more.
When I use this with singles versus series I got the value of two singles equal one series of three and both had 50/50 likelihood to happen once.

Now with this example, we are measuring both singles and series of two versus series of three and the median value is different, it reaches 3.

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ( 3 ) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 15 20 21

Cheers


Jimske

Sputnik, what constitutes a session?  IOW, how many spins or games?  Have you determined or estimated what the win % is?

Also, from what I can understand of this method you described is not dissimilar to playing a trend.  The trend being wait for certain series to complete and then making bets using them as "turning point." 

Thanks.

Sputnik


I get back to you about this - do some extensive sports betting this weekend - I am up +220 Euro and aim for +300 for this month.

Cheers