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[Sputnik]

 

I am developing a even money bet where you break even or win 10% ...
I have not yet decide loss limit.

I could never forget this picture that describe the hit ratio you should expect when you aim for a small win goal or break even.
All this is flat betting.



+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+0
+0
+0
-0.5
+1
-0.5
+0
+1
+0
+1
+0
+0
+0
-0.5
+0
+1
+1
+0
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0

Here above can you see -0.5 that means we break even but during the game we hit zero with La Partage Rule.
A direct win is +1.

The methodology is using red and black as they come, but with 1 in 3 probability.
If you win +1 you end the game.
If you end up +0 you end the game.
If you end up -1 you continue to play until you break even (here we should find a loss limit value)

Largest draw-down during this test was -4 units.
The main idea is following two dozen out of three for domination.
Will continue this later.

[D1]

Yes that does look very interesting


please continue...

[Sputnik]

I will try to explain it .
The probability is 1 in 3.
Singles and series is events.

Example.

R

I see red and can not bet as i have no clue what kind of event i have.
Is it going to be a single or a series.

R
R

It become a series with two in a row.
Now i wait until the series stop growing.
After that i will bet that one more series will show, i bet for a repeat of the last present event.

R
R
R
B
B W

I won i hit two series in a row.
Now lets say i did not get a repeat, one series.

  R
R
R
B
R L

Then i lose my bet as the last present event did not repeat, become a series.
I got a singles event.

So now i have one series and one singles event.
That is two events.

The last present event is one singles and i will bet that it will come one more singles, one repeat.

R
R
R
B
R L
B W

I won as the singles event repeat.
Now i have show you how it looks to get +1 and break even +0 following the last two hitting events.

Now assume we lose this bet.
Then it looks like this.

R
R
R
B
R L
R L

Now you can see we have one more bet to do to prevent 3 different events to show or 1 in 3 probability.
This means that we will play that the last series will be at least three in a row.

This is because our second last present event is a series of three and we will bet for a repeat.

R
R
R
B
R L
R L
R L

Now  we lose and get three different events in a row with no repeat of the last two present events.

From this moment you just play and follow the last two hitting events for domination.
Lets look one other example.

R
B

The first event is a singles event so we play for one repeat.

R
B
B L

We lose and now we wait to the series to end so we know how our two present events look like.

R
B
B L
B
B
R

Now we would bet for a singles event to repeat.

R
B
B L
B
B
R
R L

Now we bet that the last event of the series will be longer then three, so it will become a repeat of previous event, series.

R
B
B L
B
B
R
R L
B L

So you always play for a repeat of the last hitting events.
It take some time to get it, even if i know the principal i had some hard time separating the events,
It needs some practice.

With dozen play it looks like this.
You see first dozen to appear.

2

Then you play it will repeat.

2
1

It did not so now you play dozen 1 and 2.

2
1
3

No repeat and you lose three times in a row.
Now you would follow 1 and 3 being the last present events.
Same with the even money bets.


Note.
You can also after each winning strike start over counting what is the becoming last two present events.

[Sputnik]

You will get sup-riced how often you win +1 or break even +0.
At rare moments you get -1 and have to continue to break even within negative territory.

I will get back into loss limit after more testing.

[Sputnik]

 
It fail.
100 sessions and you end up even.
+44 units
-43.5 units

[reveal=Results]
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+0
+0
+0
-0.5
+1
-0.5
+0
+1
+0
+1
+0
+0
+0
-0.5
+0
+1
+1
+0
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+0
+1
+0
+0
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+0
+0
-10
+1
+0.5
+0
+0
+1
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
+0
+1
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
+0
+0
+0
+1
-10
+1
-0.5
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0
-10
+1
+0
+0
+0
-10
+0
+1
+0
+0
-10
+1
-0.5
+0
+0
+1
+0
+1
+0
+1
-0.5
+1
+0
[/reveal]

[Sputnik]

 
This is why i like hand testing.
Here we can clearly see how positive fluctuation and negative fluctuation comes in waves.

[Bally6354]

Just remember guys....'breaking even' is not actually a bad thing!

You could argue that you actually won a session if you break even because you did not succumb to the House Edge!

[Turner]

As skakus said...  its easier to start tweeking a level idea.
Perhaps a new idea shoul aim for parity for a few thousand spins as a starting point

[Turner]

@skakus
Brain disorder...total lack of spelling skills mixed with tiny android keypad and sausage fingers
Nothings ever got an apostrophe because its on the next keyboard and i can't be arsed