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[Garfield]

What an interesting offer

[Jimske]

Correct, AsymBacGuy.

"Guessing after every hand" will negate any edge that the astute and calculating variance player is seeking.  Only with a consistent and "strict betting placement" can that same player effectively utilize variance statistics to their advantage.  Then the game comes down to, for the most part, calculated bet sizing.  Done and done.  Stay well.

Here we go with the "negate any edge" stuff again!  When will either one of you guys make the simplest statement regarding number of "edge" opportunities one can expect to encounter in X number of decisions and the expected value of that decisions or decisions?  This should be a simple matter.

Don't let me put words in your mouths so please correct any of the following should I be mistaken.

Asymbac has stated that betting opportunities only come up perhaps once every 3 or 4 shoes. 

The GR8 one has stated that he achieves 54% strike rate and places approximately 15 bets per shoe on average.  One would think with all of Gr8's calculations he would know a number of bets made and wins achieved.

Discerning minds might wonder how come asymnbac has "discovered" much fewer situations than Gr8.

As Johno has pointed out to the point of frustration Gr8 (I'll ad asymbac too) have not given one example of a positive expectation situation.  So don't bet every hand.  Why?  Because you are waiting for a situation that you know has a positive expectation!  If you are waiting for something you must be able to define it.  Yet neither of you can!

******************************

My last 8,674 live bets made = 52.52%  WR. 

[marvin]

my take on this, unless you have multiple systems/strategies in place then you can bet every hand.
say you have the following 2 system:

1. troublesome 2some - (i just made this up)
2. Follow the last.

the bead plate is showing you: XXOO
troublesome 2some will say that you should bet on: X
you lose, the result is O so you will now have : XXOOO
at this stage, troublesome 2some will say to you no bet, but since you have the second system
Follow the last will say that you bet on : O
and since i just made this up, you win! the result is : O

[Jimske]

Greetings,

I think , and Gr8 can correct me if I'm wrong,  Gr8 views the game as only singles and doubles. And, I agree to this view. Trying to catch the run is fruitless due to the rarity of long runs and even so a profit is more rare.   In catching the runs, I'm sure everyone know,  it will take a run of three to see a one in profit,  and two's are a breakeven result.   IF you know the game has a double bias, bet on the two hole filling, as Gr8 may say.

ez

I'd say pretty close.  Another bet he has mentioned which I also will make depending how I am playing is the "longer still" bet.  For me particularly on the B side.  In a shoe if B run goes one more than previous make a bet it will go one more.  It's just one bet and stop win or lose.  Sure if doing well could make another bet and if win now you can keep going hoping for that 10, 12, 22 IAR. 

Yeah he has often said he likes the first two "holes."  However, one cold just as easily devise a method for the longer runs of 3, 4 holes and include the 3,4 chops.  Pick your poison.

[Jimske]

my take on this, unless you have multiple systems/strategies in place then you can bet every hand.
say you have the following 2 system:

1. troublesome 2some - (i just made this up)
2. Follow the last.

the bead plate is showing you: XXOO
troublesome 2some will say that you should bet on: X
you lose, the result is O so you will now have : XXOOO
at this stage, troublesome 2some will say to you no bet, but since you have the second system
Follow the last will say that you bet on : O
and since i just made this up, you win! the result is : O

Exactly.  I'll use up to 4 placements.

Gr8 is what I call a "spot" player.  As a trender he looks for what the bias has been and makes bets here and there for certain pattern to hit.  He knows things don't last forever so he is quick to leave with a few units win or lose.

Now asymbac oth is not a a trender.  What there styles have in common is anybody's guess since asymbac makes very few bets.  What his criteria is to make this bet once every 150 hands who knows.  We'll just have to wait for the book!  I imagine the bet would have to have a 60% + hit rate to make it worthwhile.  Otherwise variance could have you not being in the black after even 10,000 bets! 

[Jimske]

But in my humble opinion betting every hand or almost every hand ia more likely to make you lose more often than make money for you.

Without a defined advantage in any particular situation likely or unlikely has nothing to do with it.

I caution to hold unto your wallet when it comes to asymbac.  Keep in mind he has told people he has deep pockets himself so why would he need to use your money to increase his wealth?

Further, if you are not aware he has posted on different sites the same dialog about an imminent book explaining all.  One that he wishes to sell!

Remember the adage:  If it looks like a duck . . .

[LEO]

I would like to comment on Mr Lung Yeh's idea to beat bac.  I am not an expert, but bac is basically a 50/50 game & there are no advantage bets, so if you win for example WWW now you think it is time for the HPB(Hot Phase Bets) & you raise the bet to 20 times normal--You may very well lose.  In effect what you have done is take a nice +3 situation that resulted from 3 consecutive wins & made it a -17 (If you consider your base bet amount) with just one losing bet.  Bac is not Blackjack where certain counts give the player an edge & if you raise at the right times you have a good chance to profit.  It is a 50/50 game & as such your "Higher" bet can lose just as easily as it can win, so you are just hoping to be "Lucky" but have no true "Edge".

Lung Yeh, I am not trying to be "negative", but I just hate to see you risking a large capital on a toss the coin bet without a real plan.  I do wish you luck. 

[AsymBacGuy]

Without a defined advantage in any particular situation likely or unlikely has nothing to do with it.

I caution to hold unto your wallet when it comes to asymbac.  Keep in mind he has told people he has deep pockets himself so why would he need to use your money to increase his wealth?

Further, if you are not aware he has posted on different sites the same dialog about an imminent book explaining all.  One that he wishes to sell!

Remember the adage:  If it looks like a duck . . .

I'd never disappoint a player trusting me.

as.