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[Bally6354]

You always seem to get a lot of debates on forums with people saying you can't win against negative expectation games in the long run unless you have some kind of edge.

Normally someone will come along and show you a graph and point out to the - 2.70% after a million spins or so and say there you go.  However you tend to find that these methods used a fixed bet selection all the way through.

Remember the 'Turbogenius' methods....they had big peaks and troughs looking at the graphs. This I believe was the symptom of Turbo using a fixed bet selection (sleepers in his case)

It strikes me that a more fluid bet selection could try to take advantage of all the different scenarios that you are going to encounter over a fixed set of spins and give you a lot more opportunity to come out in front.

You know, I actually question why intelligent people would continually test simulations using fixed parameters when it's obvious that the results are always going to end up negative. All they are proving to themselves is what they already know. (fixed bet selections don't work)

The time could be spent much more wisely looking at the flow of results and trying to work out how you can capture these movements and turn the negative results into something positive.

You can use AP play as an example....

A card counter does not have the advantage every round. He/she bets more when the true count is positive.

A VB player needs to find good conditions to gain an edge.

I am suggesting someone playing roulette can gain a similar type of advantage by adjusting on a spin by spin basis with the characteristics the wheel is displaying at that moment in time. This in itself is a type of AP play in my opinion.

There are no guarantees just as there no guarantees that the blackjack dealer is not going to hit that 21 or that the ball is going to scatter a few numbers more than what the VB player was hoping for.

Nothing is going to work 100% of the time. You only need to be slightly more right than you are wrong to profit.

[pb65]

Personally I think that is what a real CWB is.  One that gets constantly modified, even if just slightly, with the run of the table. 

It may have semi-fixed parts but each part flows with the flow of what is happening on the table. The trick is to get more of the flowing parts winning than losing.