2 Absolutely great shoes last night. Almost everyone was on it and wagering for the shoe presentments the majority of both shoes. Great F-7s in the second shoe as well, all in a short order of time. The flops were all 6s on Aces for a 3 card 7 except one was a 5 on a 2 for the 3 card 7! We banged the casino big time. Trick is, putting the majority of the win money away and not allocating it to the bank roll if you have your bank roll replenished, etc.
First Shoe:
[attachimg=1]
Second Shoe with the F-7s and Banker Dom. Every single Player natural cut to the banker side--great follow along we found in that shoe. Every tie also cut except for the one:
[attachimg=2]
F-7s presented themselves at Hand 55, Hand 62, Hand 65 and Hand 74.
[attachimg=3]
How you define the presentments in the first shoe? For each section?
Thx
Quote from: Garfield on November 11, 2020, 05:29:32 PM
How you define the presentments in the first shoe? For each section?
Thx
I do not and cannot define the presentments as they are happening and if anyone tells you that they can they are completely exaggerating and just guessing.
As far as the sections I defined them as Section A was extremely weak, Section B was strong, and Section C turned to all ones-twos and threes. I always define sections as15 to 25 hands but on an average of 20 hands each section. I do not guess where the sections are going to turn, I merely mark it up and I follow it to a certain extent.
I'm barefoot and was wondering where my shoes were, thank you for finding them for me! :applause:
Shoe is only great when you win.
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1. "Listen to the experts" Well who are the "experts"........and if the experts are making so much money, why would they sell their techniques to anyone else....and why do they have so much time on their hands if they are playing all the time and making so much money?
2. It's just an advertisement to learn from the "experts" .................for a charge of course!
That's Eliot Jacobson. He's talking about winning as an advantage player. I personally don't think that is beating Baccarat but if you want to get by living off comps, then that's the way to go. Don't know about Vegas but it's not so easy to do it at my local casinos. They won't give you comps any longer if you're not playing with your own money for a while.
He tells you to understand the math before you can beat it. I think that is one good advice. Although his problem and most other math junkies is their close mindedness. I doubt he has spent much time at the casino or play the game enough. I was foolish and arrogant when I was younger and paid the price for it. I'll admit that I didn't figure this alone. I picked up a lot of ideas from people who came up with what I thought were really foolish. Well, after I put all the foolish ideas together, they were not that foolish after all.
Flat betting will not work and neither bet selection or money management alone will work. For a less aggressive play, you can use a two step Martingale. Don't even know if I should call it that but it'll help better understand it. Most if not all system will only work when it's either streaky or short and will fail if it goes the other way. The solution is to force all streaks to be 3 max. Still unable to do that yet but manage to do it for 90 percent of the time. That is enough to get an edge to win.
This guy works for casinos and at the same time trying to sell his book.
Thus he set up a win-win situation. LOL. And, btw, many souls got a fkng phD degree without the urge to display it here and there. Nobody cares about one's degrees.
He suggests ridiculous strategies as tracking one card of the deck or stating that Phil Ivey won millions by edge sorting techniques.
Unfortunately Ivey didin't get a fkng dime about his edge sorting winnings, the idea that instructing the dealer to arrange cards the way one player wants to, is totally out of the world.
E.J. surely hadn't bet a dime at real baccarat tables, Babu (Johno) was right at this.
Among the experts he mentioned, only Grosjean would be a valuable source to be followed.
Thorp was just a card counting researcher coming well after other bj authors stating bj vulnerability.
And M. Shackleford knows about baccarat as what most members here know about intricate aspects of astrophysics, that is an average fkng zero.
Math values are reliable only when cards are coming from a perfect random source, so keeping to compare math values to baccarat shoes that are not randomly placed is just an idi.ot statement negated by theory and, more importantly, by practice.
as.
Very well 'real world' said Asym.
Quote from: alrelax on Today at 01:49:58 am
Very well 'real world' said Asym.
Thanks Al! :-)
No sh.it.
Best bac players are people who place real bets on the fkng felt, we cannot care less about math gurus who keep claiming this game cannot be beatable or telling stories about poker experts that won (fictionally) dozens of millions but collecting zero.
Side bets are math beatable? Good.
If a side bet is beatable by getting a 7% plus disadvantage, I guess BP hands are 7-fold more beatable.
Math geniuses can't find a math advantage over BP hands?
Need to study the game.
as.
I had the pleasure of meeting Mr. John-O about 7 years ago. He told me he was legendary in the Baccarat community. Now I know it's true. We shared one of about a 100 system I've ever worked on.
It took me almost a decade to find a system that can profit some and executable. All I can say is, no simple system will work. Issue with complex system is the ability to actually execute it at the casino. Some dealers are just too damn fast and often the game is too slow.
Quote from: Babu on November 19, 2020, 05:47:24 PM
The solution is to force all streaks to be 3 max. Still unable to do that yet but manage to do it for 90 percent of the time. That is enough to get an edge to win.
I like this statement!
as.
A long time ago, I forget which forum it was , a poster named Pit Boss posted a simple, conservative negative progression which bet against a streak going more than 3 in a row. Makes sense because
in the "long run" most streaks will end at 3 or less approximately 85% to 88% of the time.
If you have a few scorecards, draw a line under the third row on the card and count the hands above the 3 line and then count the hands below the 3 line which went to 4 ( stop counting if the run went more than 4 since we are only interested if the run went past 3).... ...for example if 60 hands are above the 3 line and 6 hands ran to 4, then the % of runs which stopped at 3 equals 60/64 = 94% of the time.
(60 hands stopped at a run of 3 or less and 4 hands hit the run of 4 for a total of 64 hands played.)
For example if you have PBPBPBPBPB
PB P B
B P B
P B
P B
P
Then 17 hands are above a run of 3 hands or less and 2 hands went to a run of 4........so it went to a run of 3 or less i 17/19 of about 89% of the time.
This is the reason bac is so hard to beat since when the hands are above the 3 line at least 85% of the time, you can get anything such as a chop PBPBPB a two PPBBPPBBPPBB a three PPPBBBPPPBBB a
1-2 BPPBPPBPP a 3-2 PPPBBPPPBB a 1-3 PBBBPBBBPBBB or garbage PPBPPPBPBBBPPBPBBPBP so it's hard to come up with conservative negative progression.
And of course the first shoes you actually play for real money that any run will end at 3, you get
6 shoes in a row where almost every run is 4 ,6 4 , 8, 5, 9 etc etc and you get whacked if you bet a negative progression hoping that the run will end at 3..
I don't know about most streaks will end at 3 or less. Many years ago, I looked at a set of about 1000 shoes and also did a test with random number generator. By doing so, you will find out the number of singles will equal that of doubles, doubles equal 3s, 3s equal 4s and so on. That's because singles will be compared to doubles, 3s, 4s and so on. While you may see more singles than doubles, 3s contain doubles, 4s contain doubles, 5s contains doubles and so on.
By cutting doubles and 3s and not playing singles, you have more on the shorter end. Playing a short game though, the distribution isn't the same. For this reason, no progression will always work and guessing the kind of streaks you will get is impossible. Only way to do it is to force it to happen.
Babu- look at the three shoes posted by Alrelax at the top of this thread and look at how many times that there were hands above a run of 3 or less.........these shoes are fairly common and best illustrate what I was trying to explain. ............but it is still very difficult to create a winning method using this information except by using a money management technique where you have a relatively small loss target for each shoe you play and have a very conservative progression to recover losses.....such as a goal of losing only 6 units a shoe and a profit objective of 3 units a shoe.......and when you are down 18 units flat betting, then bet 2 units until you recover and go back to betting 1 unit flat betting.......and never bet more than 2 units for one bet.
For example, the following 9 shoes which has a bad run losing 5 shoes and winning 4 shoes
win 3 units
lose 6
lose 6
win 3
lose 6
win 3
win 3
lose 6
lose 6
You are down 18 units now start betting 2 units instead of 1 unit and maybe something like this happens
win 6
win 6
lose 12
win 6
lose 12
win 6
win 6
win 6
win 6
So you win 18 units and you are even and now go back to start betting 1 unit.
Most people who seriously bet on baccarat , roulette, sports , soccer(football), basketball, american football baseball etc etc eventually come to the conclusion that just like starting any other business, you will need a big bankroll to succeed in the long run, and of course "big" is a relative term depending on how much you will bet and what type of conservative or aggressive money management plan you will use to handle the inevitable adversity which will occur.
Best example is if you are an owner of a restaurant during the current pandemic, the restaurant with a large amount of capital ( bankroll) has a much better chance of staying in business until the pandemic is over than the restaurant owner who has very little capital(bankroll) to support his business.
Whether you are selling pizza or tacos or betting on the yankees in baseball or manchester unitited in soccer ( football ) or the lakers in basketball or player or banker in baccarat or red or black or streets in roulette...................if you are not sufficiently capitalized (bankroll), it will be extremely difficult for you to be successful....this is especially true of people who try to make a living playing poker......playing poker games where the bet size is too large for your bankroll will eventually wipe you out due to the extreme variance in profits and losses playing poker...................and eventually you will come to realize that your ultimate success or failure in poker is not your skill level and experience but the other people you are playing against......if everyone at the table has the general same skill level and experience as you, in the long run, the money just travels around the table and the rake and dealer tips and bad beat jackpot contributions and your personal expenses, ( rent, food, car expenses, insurance etc etc ) will eventually bankrupt you. If you can not play against other opponents where you are a better more experienced poker player, you will eventually lose.
However, most people are only recreational gamblers so it really does not matter how much bankroll you have, or how much you bet.
Quote from: 8OR9 on November 26, 2020, 04:18:24 PM
Babu- look at the three shoes posted by Alrelax at the top of this thread and look at how many times that there were hands above a run of 3 or less.........these shoes are fairly common and best illustrate what I was trying to explain. ............but it is still very difficult to create a winning method using this information except by using a money management technique where you have a relatively small loss target for each shoe you play and have a very conservative progression to recover losses.....such as a goal of losing only 6 units a shoe and a profit objective of 3 units a shoe.......and when you are down 18 units flat betting, then bet 2 units until you recover and go back to betting 1 unit flat betting.......and never bet more than 2 units for one bet.
For example, the following 9 shoes which has a bad run losing 5 shoes and winning 4 shoes
win 3 units
lose 6
lose 6
win 3
lose 6
win 3
win 3
lose 6
lose 6
You are down 18 units now start betting 2 units instead of 1 unit and maybe something like this happens
win 6
win 6
lose 12
win 6
lose 12
win 6
win 6
win 6
win 6
So you win 18 units and you are even and now go back to start betting 1 unit.
Most people who seriously bet on baccarat , roulette, sports , soccer(football), basketball, american football baseball etc etc eventually come to the conclusion that just like starting any other business, you will need a big bankroll to succeed in the long run, and of course "big" is a relative term depending on how much you will bet and what type of conservative or aggressive money management plan you will use to handle the inevitable adversity which will occur.
Best example is if you are an owner of a restaurant during the current pandemic, the restaurant with a large amount of capital ( bankroll) has a much better chance of staying in business until the pandemic is over than the restaurant owner who has very little capital(bankroll) to support his business.
Whether you are selling pizza or tacos or betting on the yankees in baseball or manchester unitited in soccer ( football ) or the lakers in basketball or player or banker in baccarat or red or black or streets in roulette...................if you are not sufficiently capitalized (bankroll), it will be extremely difficult for you to be successful....this is especially true of people who try to make a living playing poker......playing poker games where the bet size is too large for your bankroll will eventually wipe you out due to the extreme variance in profits and losses playing poker...................and eventually you will come to realize that your ultimate success or failure in poker is not your skill level and experience but the other people you are playing against......if everyone at the table has the general same skill level and experience as you, in the long run, the money just travels around the table and the rake and dealer tips and bad beat jackpot contributions and your personal expenses, ( rent, food, car expenses, insurance etc etc ) will eventually bankrupt you. If you can not play against other opponents where you are a better more experienced poker player, you will eventually lose.
However, most people are only recreational gamblers so it really does not matter how much bankroll you have, or how much you bet.
Great post! Too much common sense mixed with reality, most people cannot relate to it. As most are internet recreational only these days, IMO.
The 2s and 3s are the best and most outstanding for the player to capitalize on. However most all players fall to their belief at the table, once they start winning they will continue. They virtually all get sucked in. No matter the size of their bankroll they lose it to the casino,
Quote from: alrelax on November 26, 2020, 04:27:04 PM
Great post! Too much common sense mixed with reality, most people cannot relate to it. As most are internet recreational only these days, IMO.
The 2s and 3s are the best and most outstanding for the player to capitalize on. However most all players fall to their belief at the table, once they start winning they will continue. They virtually all get sucked in. No matter the size of their bankroll they lose it to the casino,
I call this surrendering to the all powerful C.E...............which means the Casino Environment...which is the entire atmosphere designed by the casino to create an alternate reality ..........thousands of dollars in the dealer tray which are there for your easy winnings (NOT).................no windows to look at the real world............no clocks..................lots of "action", noise , people yelling at craps tables, attractive cocktail waitresses, attractive dealers, and the greatest invention of all time........using chips instead of actual money so it appears that you are not losing real money for you mortgage payment, your children's college trust fund, food, car payment etc etc
Casinos are the best example of Yin and Yang......the Yin is the thousands of jobs the casinos create which provide their employees with a decent middle class income (pre-COVID of course) and the Yang is the 5% to 10% of their customers with addictive personalities who lose their life savings. house, boats, cars, business etc etc.
If you look at everything in life, there is a Yin and Yang......alive and dead, rich and poor, healthy and sick, north pole and south pole, positive and negative charges on a battery, lies and truth, cheap and generous, fast and slow, tall and short, beautiful and ugly, hot and cold etc etc etc
Merry Christmas to everyone and happy holidays; especially to Glen for hosting this forum.
Stay blessed; you and yours and may the good Lord bring you and your family good tidings for 2021!!
A treat perhaps? I ran into a person that recommended this channel. I have seen countless videos from channels that claims they have the ultimate bet selection. I can tell most of them were just uploading videos of winning sessions. When I ask for live stream, all the channels end up shutting down. This could be the same case but this person explains the the reason for the selection. I'm so amazed by how accurate it is. I've seen several of the videos but since I don't understand the derived roads, I really don't understand what he is doing. Anyone wants to investigate?
I don't believe how predictions can be made with very few results or even if there is a lot of results. My own system is a little difficult to run. If this is really this good, I'm ready to drop mine and go for this. Just to make it clear, I'm not promoting this or believe in the membership that he has just decided to offer. I figure if he has already revealed everything, why is there a need for membership.
I've tried understanding the derived roads but fail to understand it after several attempts to understand it throughout the years.
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@babu: that guy only suggested to follow trend on derived roads.... don't get confusing on how the derived roads is formed....every casino would have the prediction showed automatically...
Like usual, each will have their own perception seeing the same configuration so it's kinda subjective.... And I still didn't get why he could determine that particular trend is stronger than other.... I guess he will explain it after you enter his course...
Thanks Garfield! Some casinos actually turns them off. I actually prefer that because I can see the main road better. I've had friends tell me they were winning for weeks using the prediction from the derived roads, that is until i told them that it doesn't really mean what they think it means. After that they would lose everything and blame me for jinxing.
When I've kept records of the number of correct hands I can guess right in a row two years ago, I recorded 14 straight wins in a row. That is not following any streaks or chops. It was also subjective predictions. He base it on interception of all the derived roads against the main road. I sued to do the same with the beads block and main road, Which I find are decently accurate. But we all knows anything subjective will no longer be good at some point. Just got a reply back from him saying he won't do live streams.
The person I ran into only uses the cockroad road. She claims to have won since August of last year. The money management occasionaly ups a unit and not any step Marty. A two step if you wish to interpret it.
My system requires really long hours of play, at least 6 shoes for a decent win and determining win margins. That is just a lot of work and can't easily be done in many casino scenarios. I've been able to get it to work online with the help of automated Excel sheets but I only plan on playing online until the casinos open up.