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Messages - alrelax

#1
KungFuBac / Re: Top Ten Best Games/Bets
Today at 12:36:55 PM
Reference Lists.  Lists are general as well as specific to any one source or concern. 

What applies to the Bellagio will be different to say a casino in the Midwest.  What applies to/from a mathematical statistical expert taking published house edges, etc., and multiplying those will be specific for a purpose of generalization. 

As well a casino that has 25 or so Baccarat tables will place bac a heck of a lot higher than another game on the same list, that rates higher than bac for a different casino.

And so on........
#2
Alrelax's Blog / Baccarat Before And Now
January 28, 2023, 11:54:43 PM
Before all the high-tech electronics, unlimited streaming, instant expert answers to virtually any and all questions and much much more, there was great television memories on ABC NBC CBS and PBS as the basic 4.  The sirens of Adam-12, the loud roar of the engine from the Munster Koach on The Munsters, motorists being chased down the highways by "CHiPs", the helicopter blades of "MASH", the lollipop sucking take no flack Kojak, action packed medical drama of EMERGENCY and of course, bad boy bright red with that large white vector stripe Ford Gran Torino (the real star LOL) of 'Starsky and Hutch'.

And somewhere between all the high tech and those great television shows were some fantastic off the wall Baccarat games for me in Atlantic City and occasionally in Vegas that I experienced.

Like when I want to revisit the comforts of pre-streaming television, I can turn to Nick, COZI, TV LAND and several other cable TV channels and fall right back into the predictable rhythms of the new opening scene and the conflict introduced just before that first commercial break which somehow, magically, gets resolved just before the closing credits roll, each and every show.

And you know what, back in those days the baccarat room was just about the same as watching those kind of TV shows. The conflict introduced before the first commercial break, that very same conflict totally resolved prior to the closing credits began was the equivalent as to how we all viewed the shoes we played out. After that it was on to another shoe without much remembrance of any type on the previous one.  Not very many people played for the long term or played and thought anything else besides, what was happening right then and there. 

And as with most all TV shows these days which are actually mini-series, miss the beginning one and you have no real idea as to what is happening or who is who, etc.

But really with the procedural and elaborately plotted serial shows as I dub them, these days part of the appeal in my opinion is to have a low barrier to entry. Simply uncomplicated, so viewers can 'Zone Out' and scroll through their phones and won't be missing much. As long as the viewers are into them from the beginning of the season. 

A depressing commentary on attention spans these days I know, but also a real testament to the irresistible draw of the familiar.  When something is missed, just fill it in with what the viewer believes. 

Baccarat was a total different atmosphere pre-2000 and post 2000 wise that is. Pre 2000 clearly not so combative, without a doubt less systematic, staff and dealers actually trying to make the players comfortable, happy and resolve all problems prior to escalation without any doubt whatsoever.  Even the interaction among the players was generally one of total camaraderie and same side defense against the house, rather than I will wager against you and show you what a fool you really are, type of people. It really was like a TV show just generally a 2 1/2 hour classic show each episode instead of 30 minutes. 

You know what I can't help but laugh over—-all the time, how back then when the shoe was hot, almost all the players every single time would be taking large sums of chips out of the rack all in concert with each other. And these days it's almost always the complete opposite,  because I think they are following some type of miniseries for the long run. One or two people these days will be winning and all the others will be losing.

I guess today's play in so many ways really does resemble today's TV miniseries shows. It requires a full season, long run commitment. Structured that way because of things the casino has done as well as the people playing and everything they read on the high-tech Internet.

Myself, I'd rather get into it for a few hours and get spit out at the end of the shoe, with or without a profit, but not dependent upon anything except 'section' presentments, rather than being hooked into an intricate narrative-long term saga that desires to swallow you whole and maintain your presence while you are controlled by the long run waiting for your conflict to be resolved.
#3
MEMBERS' REALITY & EXPERIENCES / Re: Summer 2023
January 28, 2023, 01:36:58 PM
We are going here!

Care to challenge me on something?

Win money at some bac tables and play over at Dicks!!

https://dickslastresort.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/DLR_Fremont_8.5x14_Menu_Inserts_2022.pdf

Here's my challenge:

#1. 3 Shooter Glasses (of your choice)
#2. Mother Clucking Good Chicky Wings=1 Bucket
#3. Dicks Huge Wieners w/1 side each=X's 5 orders
#4. Not Yer Mama's Cheesecake Slice, and
#5. A Boozy Milkshake

That's my Challenge.

This is where we high five, yell and scream!  Oh yeah, I'm not shy in public either.  Understand?
#4
MEMBERS' REALITY & EXPERIENCES / Summer 2023
January 27, 2023, 03:49:08 AM
Vegas Get Together

Exact date will be determined and posted in advance.

So far myself and AsymBacGuy.

Baccarat at numerous places of course.

Restaurants galore!  A few of my favorites are the following.  (Posted in Asym's thread, here's a link)
Post #755 within:  https://betselection.cc/index.php?topic=10695.msg70708;topicseen#msg70708

Now, I hereby challenge Asym and any other member to Dune Buggy racing, I've done this many times and it is great!: 

https://www.sunbuggy.com/lasvegas/Adventure-The-Vegas-Mini-Baja-Chase.sun?id=1


"VEGAS MINI BAJA CHASE

Our Famously Intense Desert Chase Expereince - not a tour like everywhere else this is a full on CHASE

This is the Las Vegas Off Road Dune Buggy Desert Race Driving CHASE EXPERIENCE everyone talks about (as seen on TV ALL OVER THE WORLD!) DRIVE LIKE YOU'RE TRYING TO GET AWAY WITH SOMETHING! The Primary Reason you're driving a SunBuggy desert racer is that no plain off-the-shelf vehicle could last 5 minutes on this insanely fun course!  Don't be duped by tours with plain store bought UTV's, Off Road Golf Carts can't traverse grades over 15% (read the dashboard warnings). Our Most Popular Las Vegas Off-Road run - a wild desert chase on 15,000 acres with the Las Vegas Strip in view from the tops of the dunes! Note that this is more than an Off-Road TOUR, rather a full on Off-Road CHASE!"

The Pinball Hall of Fame.  Another must do side attraction!:

http://www.pinballmuseum.org/




#5
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 25, 2023, 04:56:42 AM
Golden Steer Steakhouse (old school and over the top) (free standing and not casino related) https://www.goldensteerlasvegas.com/

Peppermill (another freestanding and not casino related)
https://www.peppermilllasvegas.com/

Both Golden Steer and Peppermill up by the Wynn.

Spring Mountain Road area, street north side of Treasure Island and west of i15 interstate.  Several places.  Used to always go to one of the local SE Asian restaurants and it was open 24 hours a day.  I posted numerous pictures of the place and food there on the forum a few years ago.  There are a few other real cool places outside the casinos on Spring Mountain Road as well.

888 Korean BBQ
https://www.yelp.com/biz/888-korean-bbq-las-vegas-2.
Place we cook at our table.  Reminds me of the places in Manhattan around 32nd Street off Broadway.  Kind of place we do a 3-4 hour dinner. 

Picasso and Prime @ The Bellagio

Jasmine (Always Always eat there) @ The Bellagio

Old Homestead @ Ceasers Palace

PHO @ Treasure Island

Andiamo Steakhouse @ The D  (yeah yeah, it's downtown but it's fun, noisy and they have 2 bac tables up on an elevated stage like side of the main floor.  Drink some, play Macau style and rip and tear up the cards, just act like fools while winning.  The D is super noisy like I said.  Not the steakhouse, lol. And the steakhouse is suburb!).

There are others, those are just some of the favorites.
#6
Wagering & Intricacies / Every Shoe A World Apart
January 25, 2023, 02:37:06 AM
Quote From Asym's Posting:

"Alrelax is completely right about this: every shoe is a world apart in the sense that previous outcomes cannot noticeably affect in any way the next shoe."

Here are just a few to remember and prove the point.

There is always a trigger for one or two wagers, but that trigger will be there now and gone for the next 8 times, or occurring repeatedly for 8 times and gone the very next 8 times it comes around.  Playing a trigger or two for a flat bet or a flat bet with a Martingale either pro or neg, will only get you even in the short run and a loser in the long run, promise.

The profitable way to play baccarat is when something strong comes along, you pounce on it.  And 'Strong' does not only mean a streak of bankers or players consecutively repeating itself.  Make a couple winning wagers, positive progression the winnings and then pull down and stack up a bunch of winnings, lose the last hand when it goes away and repeat.  Then forget what happened and watch for the next 'whatever'.

And, remember you have to lose before you win.  With that said, then you continue.  Furthermore, when you win, you have to know how not to lose.

I really don't think it's a point of knowing how to win, I think it's more of a point of understanding how to win or understanding what winning is about.

But I understand that you also have to understand losing. Because you cannot win without losing at times.  Those that say they found wagering 'such and such' after 'so and so' and how they hold a win of 'xyz' each and every time they play, are pure 100% liars.
 



#7
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 25, 2023, 02:25:52 AM
This year, summertime, we will do Vegas.

I will bring $50k for my bankroll.

I still have a great MGM brand host whom can comp any MGM property for me/us.  I have some insight with some other brands still, some hosts of mine from pre-2017 are gone and others switched properties/brands.

#8
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
January 23, 2023, 07:02:19 AM
The results that you experience at the table will not and cannot follow any sort of governed or stable distribution of presentments or results from the shoe.  Because the possibilities as we already established are far too great to narrow down to a certain section of 80 hands or a cumulative total of 160 or 320 or 640 or 5,000 hands, and so on, that will produce what we all are seeking, winning hands.
#9
Baccarat Forum / Great Shoe
January 22, 2023, 11:46:39 PM
Got right in there and smacked them.  Not a giant buy-in, under $1,000.00 and walked away with almost $5,000.00 win.  Half a shoe at most.  Used a combination of several things that absolutely helped me. 

Hand 6-Fortune 7
Hand 16-Fortune 7
Hand 22-Fortune 7
Hand 39-Fortune 7

The first tie was a three card 9-9 tie.

The first F7 was players had 5 and bankers had 5 also.  Players 3rd card was a 6 and bankers was a 2. I won the F-7 plus the Dragon Bonus with a win by 6, paid 4:1.

Everyone was then heavy for the cut after the Fortune 7.  I stayed on the bankers (I always do after hitting the F7) and it was a bankers natural 9 over the players natural 8. I won the bankers wager and 1:1 on the Dragon bonus as well.

I went with the cut and made up my mind to play the true chop-chop because the way the cards were already falling.  I won the next 5 straight hands.

I lost the next two hands, 13th and 14th as I wagered the bankers.  I almost fell into the table aura as they were winning on players but held my own thoughts.  Easy to say at times and as well, hard to actually do. 

I almost stepped away from the table but the dealer change came and the lady who came in was one of my two absolute favorite dealers. She is spot on, huge energy, smiles all the time and takes no prisoners type of persona big-time!! 

She sits down and says "let's do this guys" and makes eye to eye contact with everybody. Hard to describe but just a self motivating Great Dealer.  I went with Banker. Players two card draw was a six and bankers two card draw was a seven. I stayed with Banker with a Dragon Bonus and a Fortune 7 Wager as I have been doing. Players first two cards is a nine and an ace, and the bankers first two cards are both face cards. Players third card was a 10.  Bankers third card was a 7.  Fortune 7 win again, plus 6:1 on the Dragon Bonus payout.

I made up my mind to stay with banker and play consecutively and I would be risking 1/3 of what I already won. Part of my Money Management Method that I employ the highest majority of times. My reasoning is, I would keep 2/3'rds of my win plus my buy-in, if I lost the 1/3'rd win money and I would definitely walk.

I lost the next three hands to players wins.  I thought myself to remain completely neutral, that I've been preaching and I was completely conscious of that at the table.  I will say I almost changed but I held my ground.

Same wager out on bankers with the dragon Bonus and the Fortune 7. The next was players had 2 and bankers had a 1. Players got an eight and now the whole table was on bankers, fortune seven and the dragon bonus as well. Everyone is screaming six or eight, six or eight and the dealer flops a six. Another fortune seven win with a Dragon bonus of 6 to 1 for the win by 7 points.

Stayed on the Bankers for the win after the Fortune 7 on hand 23 and won. Lost hand 24. I won hands 25 and 26 with the two bankers. 

I lost hands 27, 28 and 29. The tie was a reduction to zero for the players and a reduction to zero for the bankers.  I won the next three bankers which were hands 31, 32 and 34. I lost the single player hand 35. Now comes the highlight.

The table was full, there was great positive energy as well as contradictory negative blatant aggressive talk and looks against those winning by those that were losing. It was just the aura that was present.

Hand 36 was a three card banker eight over a players total of zero. Bankers win along with a 10 to 1 dragon bonus pay.

Everyone except me and another person went with the cut to the player. I said out loud, "I know in my heart she is going to do the same 4 Bankers with one or two Fortune 7s like she did in hands 15, 16, 17 and 18".

Hand 37 was another bankers win with a 3 card 9 over a players total of zero. Bankers win with a Dragon Bonus of 30 to 1 pay as well!  The hand was a players 3 and a bankers 4.  Players 3rd card of 7.  Bankers drew a third card of 5. 

Hand 38 was a two card bankers five over three card players total of four.

The relief dealer walks up right after everyone is already with Wagers placed, we asked her to deal one more hand and she says OK. Players have a two card blackjack and bankers have a three. Players third card was a 4, giving players a total of five.  She pulls the bankers card and myself and another couple of people are asking her for another 4, so we can get the 4th Fortune 7. I tell her, "pull another 4 for the 4th Fortune 7, another 4 to match the one you just did for the players side and another 4 to match those 4 bankers you did when you first came in. Please give us a 4".

She looks, smiles, a few of us are now standing and reciting repeatedly 4-4-4.  She flops another four. Gotta love it when it goes like clockwork!

Played the first hand with the relief dealer and lost as it was a players.  I won 15 bankers, 3 Fortune 7s, a 10:1 and a 30:1 Dragon Bonus, following my decision to stick with consecutive bankers wagers.  I lost a total of 8 wagers to the players side. 

I colored up and left.  Right at half way and it fizzled!  Some 1s and 2s, a 3 and a 4, almost no bonuses, no Fortune 7s. 

NOTE:  Best way to describe what I saw when I went back, was the highest majority of the results were producing the type of wins that were almost impossible to follow.  Whereas, you wager with the previous win and you would lose, you wager against the previous win and you would also lose.  You wager with your win and the next several hands you would lose using the same reasonings, etc.  in other words, the type of results that's inflict large amounts of frustration. 

Few shoes will allow a person to continue great wins throughout the entirety of the shoe.  Usually it is a small section, a section within a section of the shoe.  This shoe was almost a half that allowed me positive results.  I wish I was in Vegas or another higher table limit venue than where I was at. 

Thought I would share some details I remember about the decision process and thoughts I had playing.









#10
You are limited.....
The casino is not.

You are finite.....
The casino is not.

You are fragile.....
The casino is not.

You are emotional.....
The casino is not.

You are worried about losing your money.....
The casino is not.

Now with those few things in mind, onward.

Winning, losing and pushing.  Those are the only 3 things a player can do at the casino table.  There are no other outcomes.

The results that you experience at the table will not and cannot follow any sort of governed or stable distribution of presentments or results from the shoe.  Because the possibilities as we already established are far too great to narrow down to a certain section of 80 hands or a cumulative total of 160 or 320 or 640 or 5,000 hands, and so on, that will produce what we all are seeking, winning hands.  So many people will combat just that with their defense of Martingale or their application of any one of the numerous theorems or systems that they read about or believe in. 

Seriously people, the only way to profit is to smack the casino real hard and outweigh your losses in the attempt to get to that point, each time or at least every 2, 3 or 4 times you attempt playing.  IMO, there is no other way.  Unlike paper, the computer, trials, running tests, etc., you have finite capital, period.  No two ways about it.  The casino does not. 

Let's look at that for just one paragraph here.  You have a certain amount of money to risk losing in order to win some.  Period.  So you have a very short period of time in order to accomplish that during each session.  No matter how much that figure is, it is limited.  The casino does not.  The casino has massive amounts of capital in chips and the cash within the premises by state law, ready to pay every chip displayed on the floor.  FYI, every chip on every table no matter if open or closed, the casino has the green cash within their vaults or the chips would not be on the tables.  So, you cannot out play them by repeated buy ins with additional money, thinking you will turn things around in your favor and turn their lights out.  As well, stamina, energy, focus, motivation, vision, and everything else along those lines are also working against you.  The casino rotates its dealers every 20 mins or so, not just to avoid collusion with players, but also for exactly the same reasons I just mentioned.  Sitting in either one or two spots for a period of several hours is hard both physically and mentality in so many ways, especially with the focusing and thought process.  Then when things go bad for a player, he believes taking a break is great, but his mind is convinced he will miss that section of presentments yet to come with his winning hands, etc.  That starts a mean cycle and a cycle that is not very good for the player, great for the casino thou. 

Then we have the fact what we have discussed in detail so many times.  A negative game with a negative expectation.  IMO and my proven experience, if you have the proper risk capital and mind-frame along with a governed buy in that is a partial amount of your bank roll, coupled with the knowledge and the experience to manage your winnings into numerous chances that benefit yourself rather than the casino, then you have a chance to play numerous sessions and win money. 

But, IMO you have to master a way to hold wins, perform positive progressions and parlays, yet be able to risk without emotion or distress while walking away losing your buy in which has to be a partial amount of your bank roll, without it effecting you to the point that you regret it and dwell upon the loss.

The myths and the fallacies that exist on the internet regarding baccarat as well as casino gambling are astronomical!  People become delusional to their own thoughts.  They provide themselves no advantage to make themselves a sequence of wagering selections which they really believe they have.  They actually afford themselves no advantage and they limit their options by doing just that.  That is the sad part, all that learning and researching only convinced themselves of numerous ways to beat the casino, when none actually exist.  Especially in mathematical and statistical adherence.  Period. 

At this point so many will still believe and attempt to count the cards, keep track of the banker, the player, ties and other events the shoe produces.  Simply, if it worked like that, the casino would not offer cards, pens and the newer electronic scoreboards.  It does not, at least for the extreme upper 90% of the time you are there, if you employ it as a protocol for wagering or not wagering.  Will there be sections where the equaling out, or certain events happen because there was a deficiency of them prior to that?  Sure.  However, just as important and what becomes devastating, are the times and the sections that those very things were supposed to, or yet believed would come out and did not.  And, that my friend will happen a greater amount of times in the casino's favor, rather than the players advantage.  That is the reason why and the only reason why the casino provides you the equipment and the permission to track, score, calculate and take notes all you desire at the baccarat table. 

So what is one to do?  You have to develop a unique boldness or an advantage in select wagering when the presentments of the shoe offer the chance to win hands that will allow yourself to outweigh your losses in the attempt to win money.  There is really a chance for the player, once you figure that out and forget about the wager for such and such, because so and so just happened, or did not happen, type of play.  And, your boldness or advantage has to work on well less than 50% of your wagers and most importantly, on those that win!  That is why to myself, flat betting and negative progressions are not going to do anything for you, it will require far too many for any kind of stability whatsoever.  Read that once more, your unique boldness and your advantage has to work for you with small sections of shoe presentments, that will only occur in less than 50% of your wagers. And yes, less than 50%.

No matter what creative or Holy Grail angle you think you found, you will not bring it to the baccarat table and repeatedly beat the casino at the game.  No matter how perfect your counting is, no matter how perfect your data analyzation and tracking methods become, no matter how perfect you can sense something, etc.  If you continue to wager on any one or several types of wagers because of your expectation, that the presentment will match any type of theorem or system schedule, you are dead wrong and will be on a continuous basis.  Simply because the numbers of possible outcomes have too many possibilities for anything stable or predictable to happen on a consistent basis, whether that is in one shoe or multiple shoes of baccarat.  That is, if you continue playing past your first time anyway. 

You don't have to change yourself.  Or stop believing, or stop gambling, or stop questioning or stop applying yourself.  The whole trick to what will help you, is being totally conscious and putting yourself into a neutral state of playing, a natural state of focus, vision and mind frame.  Not even in the belief that a certain 'betselection' process will prevail over another. 

>>>It is about progressions, parlays and accumulating that amount each time or during a cumulative amount of times, that outweighs the variance, the house edge, your own default rate, etc., that you engage yourself in.<<< You have to figure out how each $100 you play with, will allow you to win after you lose a certain amount.  And IMO, experience and everything else combined, I found a certain way to be able to win at baccarat.  And that is to realize time, money, emotional, psychological and frame of mind all combined will determine how your decision making process allows you to accumulate and allocate your wins, and how you manage the losses that will happen.  Those that think and believe everything I just mentioned does not apply to them, are just wasting their time being here anyway.
#11
Other Casinos / Casino in Manhattan Soon?
January 19, 2023, 01:23:14 PM
Good morning. The pandemic may have cleared the way for a casino in New York City.

(From the New York Times):

Betting on Gotham


Gambling companies have dreamed for decades of operating full-scale, Las Vegas-style casinos in New York City. Now, state authorities are on the brink of opening up the city, the country's last major untapped gambling market, and a flurry of extravagant proposals are competing for a handful of coveted licenses.

Imagine roulette wheels perched above the women's wear department at Saks Fifth Avenue. Blackjack by the boardwalk at Coney Island. Card games within spitting distance of the United Nations. Or maybe even a Caesars Entertainment casino steps from the lights of Broadway.

It is easy to understand why so many gambling companies are interested. Greater New York City is home to close to 23 million people and a destination for many millions more tourists each year. "For gambling companies, New York is their Mecca. It's the last big prize in the United States," my colleague Dana Rubinstein, who is covering the casino competition, told me.

But until recently, state law and a wall of local opposition short-circuited any serious planning for downstate casinos. What changed? A mix of economic and political factors accelerated by the pandemic. They made casinos in New York City or its suburbs not just palatable but desirable to state leaders, though locals will still have a say.

Today's newsletter will explain how New York City casinos developed from a notion into a serious prospect.

A decade in the making
There is a long history of politicians from Nevada to Louisiana using legalized gambling to try to stimulate the economy and boost public revenues. The idea has been to push gambling that was once done on the black market onto the tax rolls, and more recently, to keep residents from crossing state lines to gamble.

New York voters first approved a constitutional amendment to allow major casinos in 2013, in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Native American tribes were already operating casinos in New York. But politicians from both parties — many of whom received generous contributions from the gambling industry — said that new casino sites could help create jobs, attract tourists and generate much-needed tax revenue.

To try to maximize the economic impact, New York's plan stipulated that the companies only be licensed at first to operate in areas most in need of revitalization, well outside of New York City. In the years that followed, casinos opened in the Catskills; outside of Albany; and elsewhere in upstate New York. Some have struggled to meet economic projections.

New York's gambling plan did provide for the possibility of as many as three downstate casinos, but only after a lengthy delay. And it did not guarantee that the licenses would be granted.

A pandemic-era shift
Now, state leaders are using the same logic that they applied to upstate casinos to try to accelerate and all but ensure the expansion of gambling in and around New York City. Gambling revenue nationwide hit record highs in 2022. In essence, New York is looking for a bigger piece of the action.

The pandemic only made that desire more urgent. Covid hit New York City, the state's main economic engine, especially hard. Midtown office towers remain only partially full, some wealthy individuals have left for lower-tax states and tourism has yet to rebound to prepandemic levels. The result has been less reliable revenue in city and state coffers, particularly as one-time federal aid sources dry up.

Gov. Kathy Hochul and Mayor Eric Adams, both Democrats, hope that the new casinos can help offset those financial losses and spark other beneficial development. Lawmakers have projected billions more dollars in licensing fees and regular tax revenues. Analysts, though, caution that those projections may be overly optimistic, and skeptics of the plans say the East Coast gambling market has already grown oversaturated.

There is also another, less obvious but still powerful driving force: New York's hyper-influential hotel workers union. When the pandemic hit the city's tourism sector hard, the group said as many as 95 percent of its members were out of work. Now, union leaders see gambling projects as one of their biggest opportunities to create more jobs for their members. The shift has been so important, it is reflected in the union's recent decision to add "gaming" to its name, the Hotel and Gaming Trades Council.

The group has made itself a useful political weapon for Democrats in recent years, donating hundreds of thousands of dollars and providing scores of campaign volunteers. In exchange, the union has exerted considerable pressure on state leaders to fast-track casinos around New York City, often working closely with gambling companies themselves.

#12
"People only see what they are prepared to see". Ralph Waldo Emerson.

What a perfect 'catch line' for the game of baccarat! Absolutely the brutal truth though.

It's only a single shoe at a time.  One shoe.  About 80 hands. Nothing else matters, before and after results do not apply to the shoe in front of you, NONE. Zero.

Do not dilute the shoe down. Do not add to it. Do not throw averages in or reduce it down in any way whatsoever. Do not envision anything except what the shoe is doing (presenting).

There are certainly advantages that are offered and can be taken advantage of. Two of the best and largest player advantages.  Equalization. Limits of Balancements. There are also disadvantages that shoes will present as well. The Illusion of Perspectives. Reversed Engineering. Problem normally is, those strong two advantages are usually squashed by the two disadvantages. Be careful, be smart, excel and prevail.

It doesn't matter how you win.....

But to the highest majority at the tables, it sure does. Either to show the others or to attempt to satisfy their own ego that they have it figured out, etc.

The keys to winning are narrowed down to two things:

1)  What wins this session/shoe/section, probably will not (possibly even throwing a harder ball at you, might go a very limited similar degree) but overall producing greater loses than wins in the following ones;

2)  Anything, including the presentments you have not experienced many times, can and will occur and create the winning hands. 

Remember, at least try to anyways, the above two things because baccarat is a game of presentments that make appearances as well as disappearances without any type of agenda in the majority of the cases. You are trying to catch the presentments in the minority events where you can capitalize easily.

WHEN IT MATTERS THE GREATEST—-YOU HAVE TO RECOGNIZE IT AND WAGER ACCORDINGLY.

You don't know—-what you don't know.  Think seriously—-seriously think!

The shoe will not give you an agenda as to what it's going to do.  Cannot, will not, never did and never will. The brutal honest truth.

Ever how you spread it out, chart it, software it, etc., problem is—-it is already done. You are analyzing the past, not what's going to happen in an order that will unfold with certainty.

The Downfall of all Methods

A method allows you to follow a plan that should give you an advantage. And the keyword out of all of that is 'SHOULD'. You have to tolerate the negative when it occurs, and it most certainly will in the highest majority of all attempts when using any method. Be aware, be conscious of that very thing.

Most all players 'chicken out' or change up what can help them at the table, because they cannot be in the dark without realizing immediate profits. Been there and done that too many times, I speak and write from sheer experience. 

Equalization. Is real and the number of times, shoes will 'equal out' is enormously over 50%.  If I had to put a number on the amount of times, I would have to say 85-90 out of 100.

As well the 0-1-2-3 low ties, is also a very very strong sign of clumping and consistency within a section, whatever the shoe is presenting. Chops, doubles, triples, streaks, etc., and so on.

Equalization is real, recurring and solid.

Limits and Balancements.  Wins and Losses.

Both will happen.  Everyone of us are individualistic within this important area of gaming.  You have to figure out what your offsets need to be when losing and how to place into positive progressions to capitalize on what is occurring. 

Remember wins influence you to wager larger, longer and harder. Casinos favor that type by huge amounts. People play that way for comps and other things that really do not matter. But it's part of gaming. 

Reversed Engineering.  Re-created events from statistics that DO NOT APPLY WHATSOEVER to the limited amount of shoes you will play. Reversed engineering is used as a fictional support tool for most all systems sellers, theory 'make quick money' book and manual authors and self-proclaimed gambling experts of all types. Be leery and be careful, do not apply it to your gaming as it will generally hurt you the highest percentage of all times.

The Illusion of Perspectives.  While the subject is huge and very complex, I will sum it up for you and it's an essential you must use it to combat false beliefs at the table. Ignore the information and data from; #1) The 'external stimuli' that will lead you to incorrect and false perceptions of what is being presented; and #2) Be 100% conscious that when your eyes and brain try to speak to each other, your brain will forbid you the advantage to take control with clear neutralism and player advantaged wagering, if you allowed your eyes to use their visual perception to limit your beliefs. 

That is exactly why few of us can wager on and profit hand after hand on 12 consecutive chop-chops, a player streak of 14, doubles appearing 6 times followed by 6 chop-chops followed by 6 bankers and then 6 players, and so on. 

Remember there are a total of 4,826,809 possible combinations within a shoe of baccarat cards (8 decks).  What has happened as well as, what did not happen at any time throughout a shoe can easily work either way, for or against you repetitively throughout the shoe.

Think about it, you certainly don't at the table, IMO.
#13
Alrelax's Blog / When You Sit Down
January 15, 2023, 06:06:43 PM
You must engage in realism. Absolute 100% lack of  attitude with the physical adherence to realism during the situation you are engaged in.

After years of play, discussion, study and debate, I would have to list the four most important things to be conscious of, practice and totally engaging in, when you are gaming.

1)  Emotional = Complete neutralism but positiveness to enter into parlay progressions through readiness caused by confidence, camaraderie and related happenings.

2)  M.M.M. =  You must have a MMM that will benefit you with visible and physical positive results when you win as well as limit your losses. Gaming is available all the time, your winning is and hopefully going to produce positive results approximately 50% of your wagers and you must be able to define, use and employ additional tactics to add advantages to your buy-in and subsequently to your bank roll.

3)  Plan = Have a plan and stick with it when spot-on without deviation, but the ability to abandon when it is not profitable. Do not attempt to change, turn, convert, or believe you were were 'wronged' or that the shoe will totally pay you back in the short upcoming hands that still exist, etc. 

4)  Ability to Leave = You must have the complete ability without second thought or re-calculations to leave, whether winning or losing. The list is long but countless events will ruin wins, countless events will only add to the losses.  Both will happen, to experienced and non-experienced players. 

Quality & Substance = Stop believing the fallacy of the unspecified, undefined and 'magical', always beatable  events that are supposed to be the gateway to riches. They do not exist. In other words and in reality, if whatever it is, is producing wins for you within the shoe, continue it with the limited successful wagering decisions and acknowledgment of same, EVERY SINGLE HAND. If you do not, you will lose.

Ego & Attitude = We all have those two, no matter if you are aware of yours or not. But I will tell you something, from experience it is best to check them both when you sit down at the table. No two ways about it.

I promise you, they will hurt you the highest percentage of the times. You are not playing against the other players, the dealer or even the casino. You are playing with the shoe, please understand what I have preached, and preaching and what winning sections and shoes offer.

Your Play = Wagers/Bets/Thoughts.  (Yes thoughts are included as well). Must match what the shoe produces, nothing else. Anything else that you allowed to enter the picture, the process, the instant hand, etc., is additional baggage that will most likely hurt you in numerous ways.  Think about it and figure out what allowed you to win.  NOT what caused you to win!

#14
Alrelax's Blog / Influence
January 15, 2023, 01:32:20 AM
Influence

Totally overpowering in the aura, the game, the whole scene.

Why?  Simply because money is powerful and that is the reason.  Nothing else.  Your mind cries out to you with clear and precise pictures of easy money and your actions follow what you perceive.

Follow what is happening and what is being presented. Do not attempt to have the shoe produce what you desire.

Get rid of all mind-frames, distractions, expectations, needs and laid out plans. Most everybody will not.  However, try it both ways and see which works better. Myself, I know.

We all have favorites. We all have great wins. We all have the desire to win. Set them aside and temporarily forget about them. Be conscious and be careful.

If it's not happening or you can not see it, stop for awhile.  It's truly the only way to play.

But, people continually Wager on Patterns, Trends or Streaks in the hopes they will appear. And when those do not, they keep wagering for those with larger and greater amounts of bets to make up. Then they stop wagering outside of their previous thoughts and then the shoe does a 180 and produces hands they needed just prior. The frustrating aura becomes larger and the cloudiness and gut wrenching turns, affects those people with huge impact. I see it all the time and I can safely say at every game I play. But the shoe was not ever going to really make those patterns, trends, streaks or anything else that the player(s) wanted.

Then the player(s) reverted their wagers back to the original desires and once again the shoe failed to produce any form of consistency to match their wagers.

What is all this called? It is called being influenced.

A word of caution.  RNGs in the free-test/free-trial internet apps or forums are by far easier to follow or predict than real gaming.  The short chop, long chop chop, clumps, streaks and equaling.  Be very careful of those apps and practice games, they are a 'suck in' for whom they are sponsored by.