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Messages - AsymBacGuy

#1201
AsymBacGuy / Asymbac method: key triggers at baccarat
November 11, 2016, 03:13:58 AM
Taken from a BP point of view, baccarat is a beatable game by any means because it's an asymmetrical game. Meaning that itlr something is going to happen more often than not.
Not everytime, never by a steady state. But we know it will.

Two main mathematical conditions will affect the long term outcomes:

1) the asymmetrical factor favoring the B side, mostly when it collects a 4 or 5 two card point;

2) the very slight propensity to get the opposite of the last result, this due to a finite card composition interacting with the bac rules.

Both are two undeniable aspects of the game and I'll challenge any expert of the world to prove otherwise.

Then there is the finite card composition that in some way will limit the random world (mostly because there's no enough room to get a balancement of previous events).

We also know that per every bet wagered we have to overcome a 1.06%/1.24% negative edge but we shouldn't care less as some people have found methods to get en edge at roulette having a 2.70% or 5.26% negative edge.

Of course any random game, no matter how much is asymmetrical, will produce fluctuations statistically known as standard deviation.
In a word, we cannot control or getting the best of it from a random game betting every hand, it's literally impossible even for untaxed situations.

The real holy grail is trying to devise a method capable to win by flat betting. This means to be able to erase the house tax first, then to be able to get more winning situations than losing ones.
Meaning we can control the outcomes.
It could be done but only after very long trackings and after some unexpected situations had occurred.
An astounding method capable to get an almost perfect balancement between two opposite events is good either, because the use of a simple progression will get a good control of the outcomes.   

Disregarding the FB possibility, we should rely upon more likely situations capable to get very low sd values.

After long years of studying and testing baccarat, I devised three principal triggers and a so called systematic plan of action that has nothing to share with the aforementioned triggers.

Here I'll mention the three triggers.

A) The distribution of Banker streaks (that is when a B is followed by another B without regard about the streak's lenght)

B) The distribution of Banker doubles.

C) The distribution of Player 3+ streaks vs counterparts.

Someone will be surprised that in my list I haven't included P singles and P doubles and there's a reason for that I don't want to elaborate.

A) Itlr Banker streaks are more prevalent than B singles counterpart but we all know that many shoes will produce many B singles. So we have to limit the B singles impact in some way. And it's statistics which will give us some help.
Any shoe is a finite and dependent production, so more often than not a strong deviated situation in either way will be NOT compensated by the remaining of the shoe.
The question is: how I'll know that a more likely event will be really more likely or somewhat silent? To answer the question we'll have to devise a method capable to get rid of the unfavorite outcomes (B singles) and trying to get the best of the expected situations (B streaks).
More importantly, we should know the B streaks/B singles ratio knowing the finite nature of the deck and acting accordingly.   

B) Banker doubles are a wonder. They are forced into a struggle between forming a more likely longer streak and the propensity to get the opposite of the last result, that is a B double.
The answer should be quite easy. From one part we have a mathematical diluted edge to get a longer streak and from the other one we have a statistical long term finding. We'd better wait to get a B double and see what happens next.     

C) Player 3+ streaks (a P streak of any 3 lenght or longer) are both the easiest and safest way to approach a method and also the most dangerous ones.
We shouldn't forget that most of the time (91.4%) the BP outcomes are perfectly symmetrical, so without the asymmetrical factor acting in some way (and we should know the previous actual result of such asymmetrical hands) BBB+ is perfectly probable than PPP+, so transforming the game into a perfect unbeatable situation.
Nonetheless, any P 3+ streak and any distribution related to that itlr will have to overcome TWO CONVERGENT opposite factors favoring the production of different outcomes: the asymmetricity and the slight propensity to get the opposite of the last result.

No news, right? Banker is still the best bet or, better sayed, the less negative bet.
This is true most of the times but not always true, as wagering toward the B singles apparition in some circumstances will provide many favourable spots to bet into. Especially knowing the finite card composition of any deck.

You can bet whatever you get that at baccarat there are no other more controllable situations than the three depicted above.

B streaks, B doubles and P 3+ streaks distributions are by far the best triggers to set up a strategy on because without any doubt they are particularly balanced in their appareance and distribution.

as.
 
#1202
Good point.

Funny fact is those bets are THE ONLY MATHEMATICALLY BEATABLE PROPOSITIONS the game provides.

Moreover I wouldn't disregard the unintelligent "pair bonus" bet offered almost everywhere at the high stakes rooms.
A simple stupid unintelligent tracking of many same value rank cards alone with an approximate study of the frequency of those hits might endorse some winning situations.

Additionally it's a proven statistical fact that the side which got a decent amount of hits will be somewhat favorite to have more pair bonus situations than the counterpart.

After all when we are losing deeply and we're wagering BP hands, we can only hope to win one hand at a time whereas such long term shots could get us a 11 to 1 payment.
I mean that we only have to be right just one hand to get the same amount of 11 winning BP hands.

Finally a relatively long shot bet could come out either in clusters or never at all.
And to get clusters the essential condition is to get at least one hand apparition, better if a couple of hits had come out within a well lower frequency than what the probability dictates.

Defeating the negative odds is a task we players must accomplish in some way.
The new US President is an excellent example.

as.





 
   












#1203
Baccarat Forum / Re: The Rule of 2's
November 03, 2016, 02:34:10 AM
Quote from: 21 Aces on November 03, 2016, 12:52:04 AM
I think 'Terrible 2's' comes from parent's experience with 2 year old's.  This is probably how the Steelers named their fan's towels.


Lol. Exactly.

as.


#1204
Baccarat Forum / Re: The Rule of 2's
November 03, 2016, 12:43:01 AM
No matter what is our preferred strategy, we ought to remember without any sort of doubt that unlikely events will come out either in relatively long clusters or more likely in zero or single apparitions.

The main mistake we players do is trying to get the most likely results whenever long series of unlikely situations will arise, expecially if we consider the game splitted into single "one night" sessions where we want to be ahead at all costs or broke even after a huge loss no matter what.

As marinetech acutely pointed out, any strategy has a "poison": some poisons are worse than others (for example hoping to get long P streaks vs long B streaks) but itlr almost every strategy will broke even before the tax.

There are no "terrible 2s", actually 2s are one of the best outcomes to set up a strategy by.

as.









#1205
AsymBacGuy / Re: Best Vegas casino to play Bac
October 31, 2016, 12:47:53 AM
Quote from: johnnycs1 on October 30, 2016, 02:17:56 PM
AT THE PALAZOO , WHAT IS YOUR OPINION OF STADIUM BAC MACHINES ?

THANK YOU ! and good blessed fortune in your new endeavor !

If you think to have a successful system, both Venetian and Palazzo will give you an excellent offer to test it.

You can bet a $5 minimum up to thousands and you can bet whenever you want and whatever you like without suffering any heat on you.
Cards are manually shuffled so no bother about being "cheated".
And you are not compelled to tip anyone besides the cocktail waitress.

However if you think that baccarat is a mixture of probabilities and real human bets outcomes, I suggest you to join a real baccarat table, preferably an high stakes room, where some subtle variables come out in play.

Once I was playing at a Wynn table and a new guy joined shouting that he was "very lucky" on his night as his wife was abandoning him.
For unknown reasons, he yelled that Player side was "hot" and of course a streak of 11 Player came out followed by a couple of Banker hands followed by an 8 or so Player streak.

Nothing scientifically acceptable, but it worked for me.

Quoting Alrelax, I needed to be right just about the first hand, the rest was a sort of freeroll.

A very good freeroll, for the good peace of mathematics.

as. 






























#1206
Baccarat Forum / Re: The Rule of 2's
October 31, 2016, 12:23:11 AM
Quote from: Lung Yeh on October 29, 2016, 02:23:44 AM
Against 1 going to 2 and then 2 going to 3.

After that bet that 4 will go to 5.

What about 3 going to 4? Any bets to make here?

Singles are the vast majority of total outcomes followed by doubles and so forth.

I mean that after a decent amount of outcomes registered, singles cannot be very far from their slight above 50% expected predominance on either sides, expecially on one side.

The same about doubles and triples and so on.

Of course we can get 20 or more consecutive streaks followed by a single or few singles and another string of streaks or a 20 string of doubles or triples with no counterparts. So what?

The main mistake playing baccarat is trying and forcing to get expected results over a restricted amount of samples.

The more we play the higher will be the probability to get an expected ratio of outcomes, up to the point where the probability to get two or more shoes not containing a couple of singles or doubles on either side is zero.

Moreover, expected outcomes which went silent for long time must be classified in their forms of appearance and according to their probability to form.

We can bet to get a further deviation of some outcomes produced or we can bet to get an expected balancement after a given deviation had occurred.

We shouldn't find ourselves in the position to guess or to hope for, just bet accordingly to the long term expectancy.

as.   
















#1207
Quote from: alrelax on October 30, 2016, 12:33:58 PM
The board really does complicate matters for the highest majority of players.  Think about the reason the casino spends the money to install them, they are in the casinos favor.

Players do well without them with a manual card and players hunches, rather then trying to match up a random game with a pre-set scoring notion, etc.  Again, the highest majority of the players I see all over the USA, attempt to change a shoe and have their wagered hands correlate to what they want to appear on the board.  Barking up the worng tree on this one pal. IMO of course.

I agree.

as.
#1208
Baccarat Forum / Re: Card Counting at Baccarat
October 24, 2016, 01:28:09 AM
Quote from: 21 Aces on October 24, 2016, 01:12:57 AM
Then why don't players write the following down as the shoe progresses?

Card # ---->
_____

How Many So Far ---->


For example:

A                    2                   3                   4                    5    6    7    8    9    10    Picture
________________________________________

3 Aces           4 2's              2 3's             6 4's               etc. ----->


One should assume that if counting where leading to sure fire results in baccarat the way that it does in black jack, that players would pursue the approach, right?   I see tracking of Natural 8's and 9's, but there can be a lot of high cards in 3 card draws as well.

Yep, but along with few 8s and 9s we need a shortage of ten value cards.

In a nutshell, let's say that at baccarat and assuming we only want to bet Player side, high cards are losing cards and small cards are winning ones.
In a sense it's the right opposite way of thinking of blackjack.

as.   

#1209
Baccarat Forum / Re: Card Counting at Baccarat
October 24, 2016, 01:24:02 AM
In addition, a long term study made on intermediate-final portions of the deck particularly rich of Player hands provided an average low density of 8s,9s and ten value cards so confirming in some way the above statement.
Of course there are P rich shoes not following this statement, as many hands had favored the P side just by strings of positive symmetrical hands.

As we well know, an 8 or 9 card more often than not will damage the Player point favoring the Banker hand, so those cards are the worst P enemies.

On the other hand, any third card different to 8/9 given to the Player will improve the P side more often than not, sometimes enticing an "incorrect" Banker standing action.

Naturally the card counting alone cannot give us any substantial edge for many reasons.

as.








 



#1210
Baccarat Forum / Re: Card Counting at Baccarat
October 24, 2016, 12:54:40 AM
Quote from: ozon on October 23, 2016, 11:30:10 PM
I put it some time ago, in another topic but no one specifically did not answer, if it may act.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO0Jf5tdITQ




Chasing the dragon bonus with card counting certainly is effective.
I wonder if the claim of the counting in the standard baccarat is real and whether we have advantage plaing Player?


  Here is the entire text of the description of the film




Counting cards at baccarat and blackjack with the multipurpose JSTAT Count. A winning card counting strategy/tutorial on how to beat the casinos. EZ Baccarat's Dragon 7 side bet is also revealed.

Casino/Advantage Play consultant Eliot Jacobson did a a card counting analysis of the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet that was published on the Wizard of Odds site in 2011. Using a linear count simulation, Jacobson concluded a shoe depleted of more eights and/or nines than normal provided an advantage for the Dragon 7 side bet which pays 40-1. I upped the ante by including the JSTAT Count (2-9=+1 and 10-K=-2) with a side counting of 8/9's and have been very successful playing in casinos. It only makes sense that a winning three card banker 7 cannot happen with a ten card (on plus JSTAT Counts) along with the 8/9's as a third card in this non-linear count.

As an additional bonus, I discovered the JSTAT Count with the side counting (and the lack of) of 8/9's remaining in the shoe with minus counts works very well with Player Bets in conventional mini/midi baccarat. A deck particularly poor of 8's/9's and ten value cards diminish the power of the third card rule favoring the Banker side. Because any 8 or 9 and ten card value as third card determine many times the standing Banker action where the Banker takes the most of its advantage. Moreover whenever a deck is poor of 8's,9's and 10's frequently, it means that more small-medium cards are available to catch for Player side as third card. Obviously the (slight) main effect favoring the Player side is due to the second issue, along with the fact the Player bets are paid 1.1 and not 0.95:1
If used correctly, Las Vegas Strip/Atlantic City/Macau/Indian and other casinos will face a winning strategy which gamblers brings home winnings from the greedy casino gambling industry.

Side counting the 8/9's are just as effective in blackjack as it is in the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet or conventional baccarat. At blackjack, on plus JSTAT Counts with more 8/9's remaining than normal, our double downs will approve on 10/11 and the dealer will bust more often than average. In my opinion, the side counting of 8/9's with the JSTAT Count enhances card counting at blackjack and baccarat to the point of long-term wins.

It's correct and I contributed to this statement (in bold my excerpt I wrote on another forum).

as.

#1211
AsymBacGuy / Re: Assym
October 14, 2016, 03:07:34 AM
Quote from: Tomla on October 12, 2016, 04:42:24 PM
and how does one get a copy?

Knowing the problems related to publishing, I'll sell my book only in Vegas.

as.








#1212
Baccarat Forum / Re: Dragon bonus got "destroyed"
October 14, 2016, 02:57:52 AM
You can bet whatever you get on your name that side bets are countable and beatable by a 1 million % accuracy.

as.
#1213
General Discussion / Re: WHY STABLE bet selection?
October 04, 2016, 09:20:33 PM
Hi BtW!

Your first post is interesting and I agree with most of your ideas.
But I tend to disagree about the 5 strategy points you mentioned later.

Imo you are assigning too much subjectivity to the game.
"very long absence of singles"......"seasons of 10, 12 or 15 spins" and so on.

At gambling, besides the EV-, we cannot rely upon anything but the starting probability and the statistical laws related to it.

Where can I find the "pinwheel" you were talking about?

Thanks in advance and cheers

as.





#1214
AsymBacGuy / Re: Assym
September 30, 2016, 10:20:01 PM
Quote from: Tomla on September 02, 2016, 02:38:30 PM
I'm not sure , maybe he got a gig on "dancing with the stars"

Lol.

The book is ready.

as. 
#1215
Giz, you are one of the best read among the gambling world ever.

And I think to know what you mean. :-)

as.