The basic component of the Perfect Unit is called the Shared Parlay. To understand what a Shared Parlay is, let's review what a regular parlay is. A regular parlay is a bet where all the winnings of the first bet are added to the second bet. For example, if we won a 3 unit bet, then the parlay bet would be a 6 unit bet. As we know though, with even chance bets, we have a 50/50 chance of winning each time. As this affects a parlay, it means that once we have won the first bet, that we will only win the second bet (the parlay attempt) on average every other time. (ie. 50/50).

How this looks in play can be summarized as +3 +6 (for a net win of +9) one time, and +3 -6 +3 +6 (for a net win of +6) the other time. So the collective profit for the two ways that we are going to achieve a successful parlay is +9 +6 = +15. This demonstrates a regular parlay.

Now our objective with a shared parlay is to (A) balance the amount won by each of the two different ways, thereby giving us more uniform results over the course of our play, (B) to increase the collective profit of the two ways, and (C) reduce our risk on unsuccessful parlay attempts. The accomplishment of these objectives thereby awarding us much more winning power overall.

If we were to re-allocate the winnings used for the second bets in the parlay attempts, we can accomplish all of our objectives at the same time!

Not possible you say? Well let's do this. Let's share 1 unit of the winnings used for the second bet in our first parlay attempt, and add it to the second bet on the second parlay attempt. Now the two ways that we are going to achieve a successful parlay can be summarized like this: +3 +5 (for a net win of +8) one time, and +3 -5 +3 +7 (for a net win of +8) the other time. What were our objectives again?

(A) balance the amount won by each of the two different ways, thereby giving us more uniform results over the course of our play. (B) to increase the collective profit of the two ways, and (C) reduce our risk on unsuccessful parlay attempts.

(A) (+8 +8) with the shared parlay versus (+9 +6) with the regular parlay....mission accomplished!
(B) +16 with the shared parlay versus +15 with the regular parlay....mission accomplished!
(C) +3 -5 = -2 and +3 -5 +3 -7 = -6 / = -8 with the shared parlay versus +3 -6 = -3 and +3 -6 +3 -6 = -6 / = -9 with the regular parlay....mission accomplished!

For anybody who thinks a 1 unit gain on 15 isn't substantial, it translates to just under a 7% increase on our winnings. Not too bad when you consider the average commission on even chance games is around 2%.

So to recap....5 unit second bets are made until one is lost. Once a 5 unit second bet is lost, a 7 unit second bet is used on the next parlay attempt. Regardless of whether the 7 unit second bet is won or lost, the cycle returns to a 5 unit second bet when the next parlay attempt comes up. Obviously, neither a 5 or 7 unit second bet comes into play until a 3 unit bet is first won preceding it.

This Shared Parlay is the first part of the Perfect Unit bet. I will type up the second part in the next post.

Here is a comparison between flat betting and using the G3M1.

A round is 100 decisions and 600 rounds (60,000) decisions were tested for each of the following examples in the Koetsch book.

Flat betting...

[attachimg=1]


G3M1....

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There are some interesting findings such as the percentage of times you will be ahead by 20 units flat betting = 2% compared to 47% using the G3M1. Also the percentage of times you will be ahead by 30 units flat betting = 0% compared to 29% using the G3M1. Now you may say OK, it's not that surprising that you aren't going to get ahead by 20-30 units flat betting over 100 decisions but then you need to look at how the average loss per round is 1.38 units flat betting compared to 3.96 units using G3M1. So if you go to 'gamble' and try and maximize your winnings / potential winnings, you can see why Koetsch prefers the G3M1.

Hello Asym,

Take Al's turning points/sections as an example. Looking at his examples, you might get on average 4/5 of these throughout a shoe. They don't appear one after the other in short order, rather they appear spread out. So here you have several opportunities to attack and also know that one particular characteristic has given way to another. I think this is a worthwhile way to look for that 'certainty' where you have some information to help/guide you.

Hello Lugi! Remember the old and wise member Swami from way back in the old ''Gamblers Glen'' days.
If I am not mistaken, he was a great fan of the Mongoose positive progression.
The book which it came from told a tale of how a friend of the author used a version of Mongoose which had never failed him.
I did a post on here several years ago and stretched it similar in a way to how you elongated the star progression.
When testing it, I failed. However looking back on it, I was betting every hand and maybe it could do a job for someone who was more selective in their betting strategy.

Quote from: alrelax on April 16, 2019, 03:45:00 PM
  By the proper definition of the word 'lazy' as in physically lacking output, etc., I am not referring to that.  But what just happened with this type of worker, is he just became a bit hard-headed, egotistic and in fact, a bit overconfident.  Probably not much different than the highest majority of all bac players that have 'been there and done all that', as the saying goes.

That's where maturity and wisdom as alluded to by CT70 can be so important. As a former keen roulette student, I can relate to the above quote and cite roughly 1,000 posts on this forum alone where I talked with a self perceived understanding of how to beat the game of roulette. That false belief is a killer. Ironically, I hardly post on the game of baccarat and prefer to read others instead realizing that there is a bit of truth and common sense in mostly what everyone has to say if you are prepared to look for it. To put it bluntly, we have two ears and only one mouth and I find/found that you don't learn as much and are not as receptive to other ideas if as Alrelax said above that you are a bit egotistical, hard-headed or over-confident. Wise words indeed.

You can't help some people! I have said for years that most people who enter a casino seem to leave their brains in the reception area on arrival. (Here in the UK, they are not just walk-in. You show your membership card upon arrival)

Years ago, I used to spend hours in the casinos and did a lot of overnight stays. Around midnight onwards, you used to get a lot of the restaurant owners/businessmen of all types come in with substantial sums of money to play roulette. They seemed to think having a big wedge would protect them from the downside of the game. I don't need to say what mostly happened. In business having money and a forceful/persuasive nature can work well. In the gambling world, not so well and yet these same people never really learned their lesson because another often positive trait in the business world (ego/pride) meant they couldn't accept losing in the casino world. Sad really but the reality of a lot of it.

This video illustrates what is said above on so many different levels.



This is a guy who convinced himself and no doubt a few others that he was a successful Baccarat player with his 'system'.
Reality bit him on the backside and he lost around 12 hands in a row at the end and his bankroll of 12k disappeared.
Watching the grizzly ending is dramatic however what's more revealing is how his rhetoric completely changes from all the bluff and bluster of how great his game is to the realization that he has nothing.

I feel for the guy losing his bankroll but it's a very good lesson to learn from because how many times did we all think ''this is the one'' and it turns to dust before your very eyes. It only took the guy in the video 8 minutes and 12 hands to realize the truth.

Jimske's quote is so true.....

''Most players lie to themselves.  They start out playing to win and lose and then rationalize it by saying they are just recreational players playing a game''

Flat betting is my personal preference. On saying that, I will use a positive progression if a section of the shoe looks like it's heading for a run of a streak/chop or what I would define as a 'staggered' chop. Obviously nobody knows what's coming out beforehand, but you do need to have something in your armoury which can identify the switches quickly if you want to profit from flat betting. It's no good losing a few units at the end of one section just to possibly win one unit on the next few decisions before another couple of losses if you hope to be successful. Asym is right in one respect! You better know your 'first bet' is going to be a winning one the majority of the time because then you have some wiggle room.

I noticed the original post was missing and so nobody would really have the foggiest what it was all about.
Here is the 'wayback' link so anybody can read what was originally said in the opening post.

https://web.archive.org/web/20170420212412/https://betselection.cc/even-chance-8/how-to-get-an-edge-flat-betting-(in-theory)

edit: The URL link is not archived or something along those lines, however you can still access it manually if that makes any sense!

If you are a member of Amazon, you get to read as many stuff gambling books as you like because most of them come under the 'kindle unlimited' umbrella which are free to read. All of the Tabone books were there last year. The roulette books are no better than the baccarat ones. It's obvious that he had limited knowledge and soaked up most of his ideas from the forums. He reminds me of what I used to do as a kid! I would go down to the golf course and pick up all the loose balls around the river and rough grass, clean them up and take them back to the golfers and sell them, lol. It's called enterprise!

Quote from: alrelax on November 15, 2018, 05:14:30 PM
Nice first shoe.  Great shoes.  My method or system will work.  Etc., etc.

Problem being, shoes do not copy each other, back to back or repeated within numerous shoes played out. 

Of course not! You require a fairly broad repertoire regarding what to do in different situations and especially if you are a flat-bettor or pretty close to it.

Quote from: alrelax on November 15, 2018, 05:14:30 PM


The more a player typically wins, the more he desires to play and attempt to continue winning.  Of course on the flip side, is if you do not play, you can not win. 

It would be unwise for any player to assume just because he won a few hands, that more wins would follow. I forgot who it was that said to always have one foot pointed towards the door but it's a good analogy.

Quote from: alrelax on November 15, 2018, 05:14:30 PM

IMO and experience, (and this is where numerous people will come on and chastise and call me inexperienced and off the Richter scale) players of all caliber and lifestyles get sucked in and stuck.  Their wins influence almost everything about their play and their losses fuel them for additional and disastrous continuing play.

I agree with what you are saying but IMO the way forward for any players who are stuck in this type of mindset would be to think how they can take a lot of the emotion out of their gambling. Obviously you can only do that if you can accept the reality that things aren't always going to go to plan and to be able to walk away. You can have all the desire in the world and a host of other positive thoughts going on but you also need that bit of indifference to it all as well.

Nice first shoe!

P23111813111111211121321111112114141421213 Plenty of chop action in there!

Playing it in my sections format where I just take the first bet would have produced the following....

Section 1. W, W*, W*, W*, W*, L. +1
Section 2. W, W*, W*, L. +1
Section 3. W, W*, W*, L. +1
Section 4. W, L. +1
Section 5. W, W*, L. +1
Section 6. W, W*,

Bet everything and it's +12 otherwise as Magnus Magnusson would have said 'That's 6 correct and no passes' 

Another very smooth running shoe IMO!

Quote from: Nickmsi on November 14, 2018, 02:36:04 PM
Great job Bally6354. 

It shows not only how to use Cycles of Dozens/Columns but also how to make a Binary function of Dozens/Columns by using
Same and Different.

Cheers

Nick

Thanks Nick, it's an efficient way to play. I tried many different angles with single numbers but I think this way is more reliable for consistency.

Hello Blue Angel, if you use the multiple streams as outlined above, you will often be betting either 2 dozens or 2 columns or possibly one of each for that extra coverage.

Cheers

Here is the sheet using the dozens and columns with an extra stream for each as described above.

cheers

You can get some nice little runs playing like this as in the example below on the columns.

One slightly advanced way which doesn't affect the rules is to run a separate stream for the dozens and for the columns. It tends to balance things out a bit more if you wanted to run something like the 'holloway' rise and fall for example.

How do you do that?

Say for example number 23 goes to 36, so that's 2nd dozen to 3rd dozen. Then 2 > 3 = 1.

So 1 > 1 = 3.
1 > 2 = 1.
1 > 3 = 2.

2 > 1 = 2.
2 > 2 = 3.
2 > 3 = 1.

3 > 1 = 1.
3 > 2 = 2.
3 > 3 = 3.

For Columns.

A > A = C.
A > B = A.
A > C = B.

B > A = B.
B > B = C.
B > C = A.

C > A = A.
C > B = B.
C > C = C.

The only tricky bit here using the multiple streams is having to calculate the bet.

So for example using the Columns.

C
A = A
B = A
So if I was looking for A to appear again in the second stream, I would need to bet column C because B to C = A.

Pretty easy when you get the hang of it and I will do another sheet to show how this works later.

Cheers.