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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by klw on Yesterday at 04:02:51 pm »
Hi 8or9 -- Thanks for the reply.

I'm in the Uk , no casinos anywhere near where I live so online it has to be. Looks like I'll just have to bet to stay at a table. Cost of learning I suppose.

Cheers.
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by 8OR9 on Yesterday at 02:35:04 am »
I'm not sure where you live but try to see if a nearby casino has Virtual baccarat ( also virtual roulette and virtual blackjack ....dealt by a real dealer ( not an RNG )..... and you can place bets on  a computer terminal.......but you can sit out an entire shoe and not bet and no one will bother you........unfortunately only a few casinos have these virtual machines.

The Venetian in Vegas has them as well as Boston Encore casino in Massachusetts  and the Connecticut casinos.
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by klw on January 26, 2022, 08:00:17 pm »
Cogratuations AsymBacGuy . It truly is 1 of the best threads ever. Full of information and very helpful. I am using your information as a base for my Bac. journey. A problem I am encountering is that I am trying to observe and note hand histories from live play. I can't seem to find a free play Bac. table and when I observe my online casino tables you get disconnected pretty quickly if you don't place a bet and I don't want the added pressure of placing bets while studying what's going on.

Any ideas how I get round this ?

Cheers.

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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on January 26, 2022, 03:44:26 pm »
I have to thank you all as this thread got 100k views, it's a nice accomplishment I'm very proud of!

Special thanks to Alrelax, the owner of this site. Then thanks to Kungfubac, klw and many others.

On one occasion I've heard a bac manager of one high end casino saying "not every baccarat player is a loser".
Good news. We suspect he was right.  :thumbsup:

Next week I'll present a class of additional derived roads to look for.

Take care.

as.
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on January 25, 2022, 12:13:34 am »
How many times in a row we're expected to lose with our plan?

This is the key factor to ascertain whether we're really playing a EV+ game or a kind of bighorn.sh.it.
Notice that I'm not mentioning the opposite situation as losing is well more likely than winning as baccarat remains a general EV- game.
As long as we're restricting the losing situations than what general probabilities dictate we're playing a EV+ game.

Say we're repeatedly tossing a unbiased coin but for some reasons we'll get an equal or less number of winning streaks than losing streaks, yet consecutive losing streaks stop at some points disregarding the general 0.5 probability to appear.
Of course an acute player will start to progressively bet until a losing streak of certain lenght had happened.
Notice that we won't give a lesser fk about which side is going to stop more likely as we have assessed that in the vast majority of the times losing streaks at either side hadn't surpassed a sort of cutoff point.

For example, say we tossed the coin one million of times, so on average we're entitled to cross a 10 or higher losing sequence 976 times but we have managed to register just 30 times of such occurence.
This is a strongly significant statistical value that the coin flip proposition won't follow a general 0.5 probability.
 
Now we begin to suspect that either our coin is not so unbiased or that it'll be unfairly tossed, yet we can't find reasons why intermediate W/L spots are following general probabilities whereas cutoff deviated spots are more likely to stop than to 'naturally' prolong.

Baccarat works around this concept: most of the times the coin is unbiased or fairly tossed (EV-), whenever a card distribution will reach some cutoff negative values, our expectancy will surpass the house edge (EV+) and fortunately for us and differently to this example many intermediate spots will get a fair probability of success and a low degree of variance (sd values).

For obvious reasons, card distributions cannot provide independent situations for long, actually most of the times they move around 'quite' expected and unbeatable probabilities until a given event is well more likely than what general probabilities dictate and of course a 'general' probability negates any kind of advantage for the player.

Add this to the fact that bac shoes are not so randomly produced as many people think: we are instructed to battle a random world but actually we don't.

as.
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on January 24, 2022, 01:27:28 am »
Curiously from one part side bets are the best option for casinos to enlarge their winnings and from the other part they can 100% be beaten mathematically.
It's like baccarat players like to fall into this cognitive dissonance as many people wager side bets but almost nobody or very few will take advantage of them.

The vulnerability of many side bets was publicly discussed by Eliot Jacobson in his 'Advanced Advantage Play' book, a very good reading for every serious baccarat player.
The problem is that it's quite difficult to put the theory into practice and people who really make a living by only attacking the side bets don't give public advices for obvious reasons.
Just to give an example, whenever a casino suspects some players are counting cards profitably, shoes start to be cut more lightly thus lowering or even erasing a possible players' EV+.

For that matter and in order to avoid home pc card counting, online casinos are used to cut a lot of cards from the play and when a 416 cards shoe is reduced to a 312 or less cards shoe (nearly two decks are removed from the play) every card counting attempt is fruitless.

Generally speaking, from a side bets vulnerability live shoes are way more attackable as most shoes are played for their almost entire lenght, especially whether a low card came as first card.
Notice that some casinos are aware of this, then when a low card is dealt as first card they'll cut off more cards at the end of the shoe in a kind of 'balancing' burning cards fashion.

Anyway and despite of their math vulnerability and a proper assessment of actual conditions, we think that side bets should be considered just as an enhancing winning factor going along our strategy and not the main reason why we are there.
First, side bets card counting involves a lot of natural variance and frankly we do not want to be behind or to wait favourable spots for long, it's just a waste of time (then of money).
Secondly, tracking the natural 'low frequency' of side bets can easily divert us from the more profitable main strategy made on BP and derived hands.
Third, side bets betting tends to elicit a 'tipping' attitude, an additional factor that will decrease our EV.
Fourth, a rare side bet player might get a lot more heat from casinos than a normal BP bettor as math is indisputable and Jacobson (along with other authors) scientifically proved that side bets are beatable.

In his numerous posts, Alrelax pointed out the importance to exploit rare events (F-7 or Panda bets, for example) coming out clustered, I mean they must come out clustered at some point.
He's right as a perfect frequency following the general probabilities is proven to be out of order.

Yet in our opinion the actual probability to hit a side bet is proportionally related about how many 'simpler' situations will come out, the simpler the better.

Therefore most of the times any 3-card hand situations won't belong to this category, in the sense that we better need one side to get a precise two-card situation as it'll be the more likely occurence to look for.

I've already written several times here that any possible side bet paying a natural point on either side (B, P and/or both) will be astoundingly beatable by a multilayered progression and actually no one casino in the world will offer this side bet.
For that matter the Dragon bonus bet is beatable by the same features, of course always wagering (when indicated) Player side as being nearly 4 times less disadvantaged than Banker side.
I mean that our primary aim will be to get a Player natural by adopting a multilayered progression, knowing that even when we do not hit the P natural we'll get options to get higher than 1:1 payments.

At the same token, the 'losing natural' side bet is hugely beatable whenever many 8s and 9s are live in the remaining portion of the shoe. Remember it's a 50:1 payed bet.

Tiger bet follows the same lines as 6s must combine with a zero value card at some point, I mean it's virtually impossible not to get a B winning 6 along a couple of shoes dealt.

Pairs are more intricated to be assessed, only a computer could get the best of it itlr. In no way I'm suggesting an illegal device to get the best of baccarat, it would be an insult to common intelligence.

Panda bets and F-7 bets both involve 3-card precise situations, only a very experienced player (or a player adopting a card counting approach) will get the best of it itlr.
Of course 8s from one part (Panda) and 7s from the other one (F-7) will make a huge role about the likelihood to win.
 
6/7 bad beat bets or three card 8s/9s are too unlikely options to be considered.

Ties.

Accordingly to what I've written so far and knowing that most of the ties come out when 6 cards will form a hand, ties are very rarely exploitable.
Not only they are affected by a strong EV-,  but their volatility is pretty huge.
After all on average few hands involve the use of six cards and this thing should close the talk.

Summary

Most of the times ties are not a viable option to make money. Naturally if we know to get a main EV+ plan, betting ties tends to endorse the casino's perception we are clown losers.
In any case, do not bet a tie unless a tie happened.
If many ties have occurred in the actual shoe, continue to bet small amount on ties.

Do not bet pairs, 6/7 bad beats or three card 8/9 bad beats.
It's true that pairs are beatable via card counting, but it's virtually impossibile to get the best of it without the help of an illegal device or getting a kind of heat from casinos.

F-7 and Panda bets are beatable via card counting, yet as those bets are generally offered at no commission tables, we should be way more focused about F-7 spots than Panda bets as the former will transform a B winning hand into a push whereas a Panda bet is just an additional bonus.
In this instance live 7s make a primary role on that.

'Losing natural bad beat' is one of the best way to make money by card counting, by now this bet is only offered at certain Stadium baccarat pits.

Dragon bonus.
If you wish to play this side bet do not forget to only bet the Player side. Casinos are happy to see that many players like to place Dragon bonus bets at both sides or, even worse, just on B side.
Setting up a multilayered progressive plan to get a P natural (at least) after a given deviation happened, will get you a sure edge over the house as some huge payed spots will come out to your favor (not mentioning that an equal number of naturals must come out at P side than at B side itlr).

Tiger bet.

A more classical example where math goes right down the toilet. 
Casinos were so happy to know that at Tiger bet tables B bets jumped from a +1.06% EV to a more appealing +1.46% EV, without being instructed that Tiger bet is easily countable and affected by a kind of very low variance. 
We guess that Tiger tables will disappear very soon, so reverting back to common vig tables.
Or that CSMs will be employed with the serious risk that nobody will bet a cent on those CSM tables.

as. 
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on January 18, 2022, 11:53:29 pm »
Along the flow of the game some hands are more important than others

From a practical point of view, the vast majority of bac hands shouldn't be considered at all.
Those numerous hands constitute the 'side' but we should only be interested about the 'main dish'.

I know this statement totally collide with common sense and math teaching us that any hand will get the same general probability to appear. True, providing a random source of results. Along with other features that have shown to be decisive in our process of winning.

It's a sure fact that you won't see a single long term winning bac player betting more than two or (very rarely) three consecutive hands either when winning and especially when losing.
Such players do not give a damn about dragon tails, long trends or stuff like that. (Actually sometimes we do but always by not endangering a previous profit).

If they think to be able to select profitable spots to bet into they want to win immediately or on the next hand at worst. If they win they collect, if they lose they go away.
It's like that a possible edge didn't appear in that selected circumstance so they think it won't come again along the same shoe.

Such repetitive process is made infinitely, hopping from table to table so watching a lot and wagering little.

Without knowing what they are really looking for, mathematically this procedure remains an unsound strategy; anyway and assuming they are not APs, they'll fill casinos' pockets by a very low frequency.

After all to get a long term edge over the house our single bets must get at least a 51.3% probability to win when betting Banker and at least a 50.1% probability to win when wagering Player.
Betting multiple hands in a row or many bets per shoe cannot achieve that important cutoff probability percentages as profitable spots (if they really exist) comes out few and far between.

Naturally it's easier to compute the actual w/l percentages happening at the different sides when betting one or two hands per shoe.

For example, an average two hands betting per shoe means to play 35 different tables as compared to a player betting 70 hands at a single shoe.
Again, mathematically things doesn't change but maybe practically they do.

In fact, a player betting 70 hands per shoe is going to challenge several times in a row a single card distribution. This shoe could be profitable (easy detectable patterns) or not (weird undetectable patterns), yet the house is going to get the same expected amount of money at just one table than the player betting two hands at 35 different tables.

Even if the two-hands per shoe bettor plays randomly, he/she'll get more 'free' informations than the 'bet every hand' player that is forced to 'guess' everything happening at that single shoe.

In addition, the rare bettor could track easily what happened in that selected wagered situation/s shoe per shoe and acting accordingly, the other player cannot remember his/her w/l line as more forced to consider a shoe as a total world apart.

There's a big substantial difference by hoping that a 'more likely' pattern will come out by playing 35 shoes (meaning 35 different card distributions) than by playing one shoe.

Always remembering that if our bets are not getting at least 51.3%/50.1% percentages, itlr we're not going anywhere and this thing can only happen when a fair number of 'average' card distributions show up.

I understand it's hard to play a couple of hands per shoe but without this attitude you'll invariably belong to the losers category.
(Of course nothing prevent us to bet many hands per shoe by a 10x or 20x lower amount than the 'key' bet, but consider this approach as an additional vig to face).

Next week some practical guidelines we use to attack side bets.

as.   
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on January 18, 2022, 12:41:10 am »
There are 'infinite' ways to arrange 312 or 416 cards into a shoe but bac codes are way more restricted in their distribution.
And a bac code is just the result of innumerable card distributions. Hence many many card distributions provide the same outcomes in a way or another. Almost always by unproportional values.

Naturally it's way more likely to 'guess' right whenever a number succession includes three or four number categories than a sequence as 1,4,1,2,3,2,7,1,1,1,3,5, etc...
Especially if those few numbers seem to get unequivocal properties. 

Guessing the actual baccarat code

Itlr, the probability to win is in direct relationship of how much 'more likely' situations will show up along the played shoe. It's like throwing darts having a larger than normal target to aim for. We won't hit the target everytime but more frequently than at a normal target.
In baccarat terms this means that an average card distribution will make this target quite large to be exploited but deviated card distributions could be heaven or hell by a symmetrical probability.
Unfortunately most bac players transform 'hell' into disaster and heaven into a too slight positive occurence.

Simply sayed and providing that acute players are in action, average card distributions will make casinos as sure losers because in a way or another something will be more likely than other by a fair margin.
Technically those spots arise when Banker got its fair share of streaks, Player a fair amount of consecutive singles and/or doubles or very short streaks and so on.
At those situations, acute players do know when to attack and when to simply watch.

Anyway even acute players do not know what to do when 'undetectable' situations will come out in a row and many shoes belong to this category.
It's now that a proper evaluation of bac codes could help them.

Are shoes so randomly produced that any effort made to be more right than wrong is totally fruitless?

Rattlesnakes.h.i.t.

Even though many card distributions will make same results no matter how cards are distributed into a shoe (and we've seen this is a decisive property to exploit from but from another point of view), numbers instruct us that the 'random' world is not that random and we have the direct proof by studying the sd values of the results.

Let's make an example.

Every baccarat code is formed by a number succession, say by 3 or 4 different numbers getting a different descending probability to appear. I transform numbers into letters. 

We have registered the first shoe that looked as ACBBCDAABDDCAAB (4 letter spots).
It's important to grasp the concept that each letter won't belong to a precise quantity hands distribution.

Now we have to guess what the fk is more likely coming out on the next shoe.

First.
Odds that this shoe will get the same number of letters are relatively low.
Technically and obviously it means that 'letters states' could come out by a more or less quantity than the previous one.
Surely and in the worst case scenario at least 6 or 7 letters steps will be involved.

Second.

There's a probability to get same letters at each position depending upon their general probability to happen (A=even money, B=1/4, C=1/4 and D=1/4).

Third.

Notice what letter came out after a given letter in the first shoe. (In our example A was followed by C,A,B,A,B. And B by B,C,D;  C by B,D,A; D by A,D,C).

Probability to get a precise back-to-back same number positional situation will be quite low unless the first shoe presented many consecutive even money spots (A occurences). And/or if many consecutive same more likely letters had come out in the first shoe.
 
Additionally, back to back shoe consecutive same numbers different than 0 and falling into the same position will be less likely to happen at various degrees and many times we don't have to bet 3 steps to get the best of it.

Naturally it's sufficient to test your shoes to see what's the most profitable course of action to be taken. The 'things change' approach is just an accelerating (and quite more risky) process of taking the best of it.

as.
 
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on January 16, 2022, 10:27:00 pm »


Itlr, consecutive successions of univocal patterns (singles or streaks) are more likely to come out by precise numbers, for example if you'd progressively wager toward not getting any 3-3 sequence (for example) you'll get a sure statistical advantage no matter how the fkng math will dictate.   ..."


     Q: For clarification--You are suggesting wagering for NOT getting a precise (exact)3-3 and you do not mean the second leg could equal a  3-3+  with your example of a 3-3 being pppbbb ?
Thanks

Continued Success,

Hi KFB!

Nope, whenever a 3 value is reached I'm not interested whether it will be an exact 3 or a 4, 6 or 12.
I'm going to classify those different sequences into the 3+ category.

Btw, you've raised an interesting topic we didn't investigate so far, obviously any 3+ precise class will fight against any superior 3+ class but it will take too long time to exploit this feature.

Anyway notice that now we're talking about singles and streaks successions (horizontal sequences) and not about vertical sequences (singles, double, triples...)

It's true that a multilayered betting strategy wagering toward isolated 3+ 'normal' streaks happening at any side of any road (except cr) will be quite 'variance limited', but itlr the sum of W/L ratio will be deviated toward either the singled isolated 3+s or doubled isolated 3+s without knowing which category will be kissed by this propensity.
For example, some (rare) shoes will provide many two clustered 3+ consecutive streaks, therefore to get this plan properly working we need to classify 'isolated 3+s' and double 'isolated 3+s'.
Whenever a clustered value of any class (isolated 3+s and double isolated 3+s) will get substantial abnormal deviations, we know we'll play a sure EV+ game by exploiting a simple RTM effect (that at baccarat works for the average card distribution topic).

The 'horizonzal' registration tends to get rid of those problems as now we are not giving a lesser damn about a simple back-to-back probability unless a new winning side comes out.

as.
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on January 16, 2022, 09:38:01 pm »
Groups=Sections?

Hi Al!

Yep, of course everything depends upon about how one considers a 'group or section'; imo a group is any sequence of events getting the same properties belonging to the most possible restricted category.
Of course we can hope to be right for the almost entire lenght of the shoe, at the same time fearing that a large number of opposite 'heterogeneous' spots denying steady groups will come out sooner or later at a given shoe.
Most of the times, a shoe won't present steady long detectable spots and of course it won't present steady unguessable spots either.
But you know very well what I'm talking about.  ;)

as.
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