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[AsymBacGuy]

I got news a team of 10 players recently made a serious dent in the baccarat bankroll of one US casino, heavily betting on dragon bonus.

Everyone here knows how the dragon bonus works and I guess most part of you have read the Jacobsen topic about that.

http://apheat.net/2012/08/12/card-counting-the-dragon-bonus-baccarat-side-bet/

It sounds this team had heavily and simultaneously bet mainly the "before last" and last hand of any shoe after having counted the cards removed from the deck.

Let's summarize a bit.

Dragon bonus is a bet where you bet the winning hand will win by a fair percentage of points over the losing one (minimum set at 4 or more points).

By a proper and accurate card counting, players could get an advantage expecially on the latest portions of a shoe.

Cards which lessen the probability of having a 4+ points gap mostly are Aces, 2s and 3s.
Cards enhancing the dragon bonus factor are 8s and 9s (7s too, at a lesser degree).

For obvious reasons, dragon bonus Player bet will show better perfomances than the same Banker bet, having the first bet about a 4 times lower negative edge than the counterpart.

The team after having accurately counted every card, waited the right circumstances to bet the very last hands of some shoes, getting the best of it by far.

Rumors suggested they solely bet when the 8s-9s-paints ratio was higher at some degree than other card combinations, thus simultaneously betting huge sums either on the player dragon bonus side and inferior amounts on banker side, without waiting other "perfect card distribution" situations.

Surely they got long positive transitory variance outcomes, let's think about winning a 30-1 proportion having had the luck to encounter a 9-0 third card or a 0-9 third card scenario.

Anyway, the simultaneous steady "good luck" and accurately selected flow raised the casino's heat ending up with the ban of those "lucky" end-shoe bettors.

Moreover and for good measure, the casino erased the dragon bonus bets from the baccarat tables, the like dragon and panda bets are steadily disappearing in our beloved felts.

as. 





     





   






 

[alrelax]

I got news a team of 10 players recently made a serious dent in the baccarat bankroll of one US casino, heavily betting on dragon bonus.


as. 


Serious dent?


     





   

[alrelax]

I have literally seen players taking $50k plus, up to $300 k off a big baccarat table for multiple shoes, everyone-meaning all 14 at one table.  The casino never thinks twice, never raises or lowers the limits, never says anything.  Games go on and on 24/7.  Unless it was in the multi millions, a property with baccarat is well prepared and know what will and will not happen.

[AsymBacGuy]

Hi alrelax.

As you I'm used to have a very serious approach about the gambling world.

Thus I take such information as a papal bull, given the sources.

I guess you have never seen 6 multiple maximum limit bets on a side bet in the very final portions of a shoe. Not every shoe. And that thing happened in a 3 month period, day by day, noticing the same betting line and the very same players wagering the maximum.
It happened this team won a lot of money.

Best support suggested by the by-standers came out by studying the real quality of the cards springing from the very final hands of played shoes.
You know what cards I'm talking about.

Casinos won't take in account what mathematics and experts dictate when they are losing a lot of money in very selected spots.

Knowing that at baccarat card counting won't offer any help doesn't lighten the supposedly winners condition.

Was it just a positive and very unlikely 3 month players' shifted variance?
Maybe, but casinos don't care.


as.



 






 



   

[alrelax]

No I have not. But I have seen many times over almost the whole big table up to $20k max (each player) and some allowed over the max up to $50k or $100k each,  all wager max and win repeatedly.  Saw shoes taking the casino for excess of one million easy per shoe.   Seen up to $1k or more wagered on tie by many players and won.  Casino never flinched or showed concern.  Never even called the pit manager.

The only times I generally ever saw concern, personnel called in, was when there was 'unknown'/'non-regular' large cash buy-in players.

(I changed my post here because I thought you were referencing to limiting wagers on the last hands cause of card counting down, etc.)  Rough Halloween with the kids, LOL.  Not much sleep since Friday night.

[ozon]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO0Jf5tdITQ


Card Counting at Baccarat

[21 Aces]

News article or press release or it didn't happen.  The casinos have limits on high payout bets in place and consistently sustain massive runs in high payout bet wins.  There is no holy grail to counting high payout bets.  If anything, it sounds like a casino may have been pressed up against their acceptable risk limits.

High payout bets are a substantial win for the casinos as so many players bet them incorrectly.

[alrelax]

Count all you want and go out and wager your cash on your count.  So far from viable it is pitiful. 

If explored and researched I will lay you odds someone, somewhere has a system they are selling that this propaganda goes along with. 

So ludicrous, 8's and 9's actually help so many times in getting to a dragon 7 cause the reduce so many cards for the player if not in the first 2 player cards.  LOL.

[21 Aces]

So ludicrous, 8's and 9's actually help so many times in getting to a dragon 7 cause the reduce so many cards for the player if not in the first 2 player cards.  LOL.

I didn't really pay attention, but ^This.  Most Dragon and Pandas come from 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7.  Rare Ace. 8 won't be a 3rd card.

[AsymBacGuy]

You can bet whatever you get on your name that side bets are countable and beatable by a 1 million % accuracy.

as.

[alrelax]

Yes the casino will not care the highest majority of the times, especially the larger ones in the USA. 

As well, it cannot last forever, it is luck mix with a touch of advantage but in the long run it will fizzle out and cost the player. 

Same as if I believe the chop or doubles syndrome say.  I go tot he casino with a large amount of money.  Say $10k.  I plan on going 6 times.  Very easy to accomplish a win 4 or 5 times out of 6 or even 6 times.  If I quit at that point, does that mean that I have a system to beat the casino results? 

[21 Aces]

I see more and more packs of high payout bet wins that, given the premise of the shoe's shuffle and cut, are quite insane.  The house takes down every red cent of action with no prob's.  It really comes down to enough of shoes having little to no high payout bet wins and players betting on them incorrectly. 

For example, it is quite frequently that players diligently play a shoe with high payout bets, nothing comes, the shoe gets difficult, they sideline completely or for a few hands, and then BOOM.... high payout bet win hits.  So for many, many hands that allocated some of their capital to high payout bets with no win.  This is why the larger you play AND the sharper you are at Bank and Player bet selection, the more you make.  You can sustain high payout bets at will or always and it doesn't affect your primary game.