Hi whatswhats, it's me to thank you for sharing your ideas that many will appreciate here.

Besides people writing here, I personally know at least four pro players seriously getting profits from this game in years; three of them are asians.
When I've asked "how can you overcome the EV-?", all of them responded with a "betting very few hands, no side bets". Not precise insights but simple answers I tend to agree with.
Another question was: "do you think that setting up an only Banker wagers plan is the best way to exploit the game?"
Two of them answered for a sure "yes", the remaining two disagreed.   

More later

as.

For those of you who have never seen or experienced a really well trained Waffle House crew in full on work mode, it is truly something to see.

We've got one of those really good Waffle Houses up on the interstate and when things get crowded in there it's worth it just watch them work. 

No panic, yelling or anything else.  Just calm efficiency and the orders just keep rolling on down the assembly line.

I should video that crew one of these days just to show people what organization looks like.

AD

I swear this looks like one of the cooks (the style anyways) at the one we go to in Kansas City after the casino. 

"I love how he clicks the spatulas to calibrate them before scooping up food".

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-uZksEpFuGI

Me personally have multiple plan:

Compounding and single buy in.

1. Compounding
I do a 3/5% per session until 20/30 session (then i withdraw obviously etc.. you already know what the possibility are) obviously there will be losing session etc but a good % of time enough to win in medium term we can reach the 3/5% session.

2. Single buy in
a 10/20 unit buy in with a 30/50% of goal net win of buy in
also this after a month will be in profit.

i don't use the 1/3mm but anyway after x time prefixed based on % or month or anything a part will be pocket and another one in the bankroll that then automatically can increase the quantity of buy in or the amount of single buy in

Hi ASYM as always love your post to study and mix with mine idea, what I want to ask you is in your stats/info pratically can be a good idea wait for the main road to give an S-A to bet that the second pattern of the byb will be an A? Because of correlation of hands or is just a fallacy or I didn't see something?

Because of what I read it means in my mind that we can create strategies of bet selection based on multiple road pratically.

1. Because after the first S is more probable an A then an S, just firsts pattern because then the result are effected by previous result.

2. The A/S are cyclical or similar to every road or you find something interesting also on the derive?

3. You write a lot of interesting things during time, I grouped all of them in a personal docs so to have better clear and visual concept and I see that you at the end about of A/S concept that seems your principal concept about your game, you write multiple bet selection/trigger or how you want to call them.
You think that it's better a random walk with a random good strategy / bet selection or a random walk with always and forever a fixed bet selection?

In my idea is better the first option, obviously the random bet selection (that can be like your asym/sym concept etc) is followed in 2/3 random walk or based on +1/2 unit win, and then change so switch between them.

What do you think?

Ps. For me I'm a professional like you and other that win with baccarat/even chance game, (not always but what I do is a monthly result so at the end of the month with a plan of specific buy in / net profits goal etc I'm in positive also if some month can be a grind)
So my question aren't to ask the """"holy grail"""" but just to have other professional and interesting player opinion.

Me personally didn't talk with anyone about casino and probably exist other people like me or also like you that if we give each other idea / concept it will surely give an boost of efficiency.

Then everyone have their secret and this is obviously but when you talk about asym/sym without give a "DO X AND THEN Y" but just concept etc for who is good at this game and use their brain, what you explain is enlightening then to people like me to make your concept, "mine".

And it's good because it's a sort of legacy, because anyway 99% or more of people also with the """"HG""""" will lose so give this info like what you do, it's like give a clear and meanwhile encrypted message for just who know what to do with this info also if then take times to elaborate etc.

So thanks.

As Kungfubac wrote in another post, I will quote:

"Tried-and-True Money Casino Gambling Management Techniques

I agree with most of the authors' suggestions.
re: Stop Loss and Stop Win.

Stop Loss:
Personally, I do not rebuy into the same shoe after busting a buyin. I do go get another buyin but will select a different shoe, go to different casino, maybe take a restroom break/walk around 15-20mins,...etc.

What is interesting is when I bust a buyin it seems I will bust another within a few shoes or days and often that second bust in close proximity will have a Net-(i.e., meaning it had not earned itself once).

Recently I had gone about 9 weeks without busting my buyin(very long for me). It busted and a short time later( a couple days later) it busted again with only a 19% win of itself. Most busts that are Net- I seem to at least have profits of 60%--80% prior to bust.

Stop Win: Personally I do not think we should have a Stop Win. Simply implement a trailing loss (similar to investing in a stock or precious metals,..etc). One never knows how long the current winning trend will last(shoes, days, weeks, months,..etc)."

https://www.888casino.com/blog/gambling-management-tchniques

VERY IMPORTANT SUBJECT TO ME AND I BELIEVE OTHERS.  I SPENT THE TIME TO OUTLINE AND CONDENSE MY LONG DRAWN OUT THOUGHTS INTO THE FOLLOWING:

*Stop Loss. It is an easy definitive stopping event for myself. If I lose my buy-in, I am done for the session. Not to restart after a break, not to go get additional funds or restart once again. I know my limits and I know my risk limits. If I lost, I lost. My reasoning is, if I lost the buy-in, I would be stuck in a recovery mode to recoup the lost funds and for myself, that only favors the casino 95 times or so out of 100. I've learned this from the past four (4) decades of play I have participated in.

*Stop Win. Lots of opinions written on lots of forums and broadcast on countless videos on the Internet. Believe what you want, but I know one thing for certain, most wins are shown or written about and losses are not.

I have a few different items I use to determine how much of a win I should walk with. I am pretty strict with my ultimate decision when a session turns winning and when to enter my 'Stop Win' event mode.

If I wound up into a winning session which I determine by at least doubling my buy-in risk capital, at that point I generally enter my 1/3rd-1/3rd-1/3rd status of play. I have talked about this extensively on the forum here. It is a critical part of my M.M.M.  (I and numerous others within my circle of player friends have become better players because of this alone).

My buy-in capital will be removed and locked up as well as either 1/3rd or 2/3rds of my 1/3rd-1/3rd-1/3rd division of winning funds. I will continue my play with at least 1/3 rd of those, or perhaps 2/3rds. This will depend on several factors of how easy or difficult it was to get to that point, which I'm not going to discuss here because those are specific to each session.

If I continue to win wagers while staying within 1/3rd to 1/2 of the win as my wagering capital, I will then enter 'set-asides', which I value and respect  differently than the 1/3rd-1/3rd-1/3rds.  (Set-Asides are another topic and I have also written about them elsewhere on the forum).  Bottom line is, my protocols on a stop win will be dependent upon how much and how quick I continue winning, and/or the opposite.

*So, am I just going to hit my trigger, which is doubling my buy-in and then employing a stop win?  No, of course not! However, I found a very comfortable, satisfying and proven implementation of strategies that allow me to continue playing/winning or walk away and end the session with complete satisfaction that I did the best I could have done and not have that feeling or desire to walk back after I cashed out.

Those are my Stop Win and Stop Loss thoughts and rules. 


NOTE:  I only play Brick & Mortar casinos.  My buy-in is a smaller % of my bankroll in the neighborhood of 1/20th-1/25th.  I am not a fan of consistently building a bankroll larger as it tends to add fallacy and chasing to the gambler.  Any previous losses are immediately replaced when a win happens.  FYI, I can bust numerous buy-ins but it would be very very difficult (almost impossible) for me to bust my bankroll. 

Suppose our random walk will dictate to bet that a S pattern will come out as isolated (so followed by an A pattern) and we choose to consider just the very first S pattern occurring per every shoe dealt.

Itlr not only we can't lose any money at such series of bets but actually we can improve our EV by waiting that a first S pattern went as clustered (S-S...), then wagering at the next shoe toward the first S coming out as isolated.
If you'd think that most of the times the common derived roads are mutually exclusive in producing S patterns, you'll see that "S isolated random walks" are getting a good level of prediction capable to erase and invert at our favor the HE.

This very first pattern betting placement is the only one enticing a kind of constant wagering being less affected by possible strong variance issues and the reasons why this should be true are beyond the scope of these writings.

Then the next patterns are more sensitive to the actual shoe distribution, mainly being a by product of the first pattern propensity.
Those are patterns we want to classify by a kind of RTM factor, so orienting us to wait for fictional losses to show up before wagering.
Moreover some shoes will deny a second S pattern, making the second S pattern trigger a more difficult spot to take care of.

Same thought could be applied at very first A isolated patterns vs A clustered patterns (privileging the clustering effect) anyway being affected by a slight greater volatility we do not want by any means.
So it seems we'll be in better shape by wagering that something less due will come out as isolated than confiding that a more likely probability will get its fair share of results because more probable events will more likely come out in the form of long clusters than by a constant clustered form.

Here a brief sample of Big Road (first row) and ByB Road (second row) first patterns in the form of S isolated and S clustered patterns after an initial S patterns occurred:

S-A
S-A

S-S
S-S

S-A
S-A

S-A
S-S

S-A
S-A

S-A
S-A

S-S
S-A

S-A
S-A

S-A
S-A

S-A
S-S

S-A
S-A

S-A
S-A

S-A
S-S

S-A
S-A

S-A
S-A

S-S
S-S

S-A
S-A

S-A
S-A

S-S
S-A

Whenever those patterns dictate to bet an opposite hand in order to get an A pattern, do not bet and wait for the next shoe (I'm talking about the very first S pattern).

Let's casinos hope that card distributions will make many first S patterns being clustered at each random walk we decide to consider (we can easily set up an infinite number of random walks  besides the common derived roads), in the meanwhile we to take the profits by exploiting a purest form of gambler's fallacy (LOL).

as.

Big article in today's WSJ about PolyMarket which is one of the big Prediction Market players.

AD

Thanks for your detailed and interesting replies.

Maybe the common denominator is patience/discipline and efforts made to reduce volatility,  things that converge by playing very few hands.

The only way, IMO, to reduce volatility is by considering opposed selected events roaming the most around the 0 point.
Mathematically this kind of reasoning is a pure fallacy as everything happens anywhere and anyhow and odds just follow the math probabilities (all bets are EV-).

But in reality some situations are more likely to get restricted variance values than others, so the points of intervention matter.
Then any shoe is a world apart, many times not fitting the long term values we are expecting so we shouldn't chase the unchasable especially within a single shoe or a couple of shoes.
In fact and after extensive studies made upon different SINGLE shoe productions we've got the conclusion that baccarat predominantly is a game of clusters but (from a strict EV+ point of view) it's almost impossible to realize which events will take the clustering or silent line. And of course the lenght of such clusters that most of the time we take care of only when they are strongly negative.

Back to the A/B events roaming around the 0 point.
That is not a cut and dried recipe for long term success, but it's a good starting point to base our strategy.

Basically the hands we'll win are balanced by an almost same number of losing hands, so we have to discard from our betting more losing hands than we can, especially if losing hands seem to be clustered.
The opposite situation (apparent clusters of winning hands) is more intricate to be assessed as we don't know how many bets we'll win consecutively, a thing particularly important when our plan is devised by two-bets ranges.

More later

as.