+ Register

[alrelax]

Real Money Management for the serious player. 

PART 1

So, many are under the elementary understanding, that Money Management will Control; Allow You to Win More Than You Lose; Stop You from Continually Losing; Going On Tilt; as well as Recouping Past Losses.  Correct?  Well, not in my opinion and experience. 

I state, proper Money Management must be employed with proper wagering technique and a semi aggressive positive type of wagering in order to make more than a grind or a break-even stance with the game of baccarat. 

Most of the time, the highest percentage anyway, the types of Money Management that one presents and discusses on gambling forums are either flat betting to win several units with a stop loss after losing several units, etc.  Or, some type of negative progression, such as Martingale believing that wagering a 7 or 8 step attempt should recoup your first lost wager.  Example, 2-4-16-32-64-128 and simply resetting to 1 unit when you recoup or if you hit the 7th or the 8th loss, then just reset to 1 unit regardless and move on.

WOW!  Really?  That is insane and I can only assume the people that write that do not or have very little baccarat playing experience.  I am not talking about pennies on line or a nickel or a dime betting until.  I am talking brick and mortar casinos with either a $10.00 or a $25.00 min wager, which almost all main floor baccarat, non-private room or high limit rooms are at these days. 

First, flat betting to win a certain number of units with a stop win and a stop loss of units, is a difficult and almost certain grind to losses or countless break evens over the term of months playing the game.  It cannot and will not prevail.  I am not here within this thread to debate or hear about probability outcomes and all that.  I have witnessed it over the decades, and I know what will and what will not happen 90% or better of the time, with say buying in for $500.00 and wagering $50.00 ten times with a 3 unit stop loss and a 5-unit win stop or something similar. 

If you run the numbers on the 7 or 8 step negative progression, within numerous casinos you can not even get to that point without being over table max in the first place. 

So many forum posters have cited the ease of just wagering negative progression in a 6 or 7 or 8 step wager and you will be back in the game for the one unit you initially lost.  I will tell you what my fellow Bet Selection members, if that person who said that was standing out of a store, I needed directions to, I would not believe him if he told me to turn around and look, it was right there, no need for directions. 

Seriously, do you guys believe that kind of information?  Say you lost $10.00 and you did an 8-step negative progression.  First, there are very few if any tables that are $10 min to over $2,000.00.  That is more of a $25.00 min table and most casinos, it would be a $50.00 min.  Anyway, to my point.  You would have to risk $5,100.00 to get to an 8 step $10.00 lost wager with a negative progression to recoup it.  Your 8th wager would be a 256 unit bet of the amount of $2,560.00.  For a $25.00 wager, your 8th wager would be a $6,400.00 wager and a $100.00 wager, your 8th bet would be a $25,600.00 wager.

For the $25.00 wager person doing that, you would be risking $12,750.00 if the 8th one lost.  And for a $100.00 wager, you would have $51,000.00 at risk if that 8th one lost.  INSANE! 

By the way, there are 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 repeating B's or P's if you are wagering for the most common hand to cut, come out.  As well, countless players wager for the single or double cut or repeated.  You can easily lose 6 or 7 or 8 of those as well, yes, in a row. 

As far as table limits, most casinos are one of the following on their main floors.  $10.00/$1,000.00 or $10.00/$2,000.00.  $25.00/2,500.00/$3,000.00.  $50.00/$3,000.00 or $5,000.00.  Most high limit room are the following.  $100.00/$5,000.00 or $10,000.00.  $200.00/$15,000.00.  $300.00/$20,000.00.  and last is $300/$500 to $25,000.00.  Like I said, that is the bulk, there are other ones, not many that are different. 

Players get over confident in flat betting, especially after winning a few hands straight.  Far and large, from my observations of countless players at the table as well as myself, baccarat players have the tendency to say, --It is only......and it has to win and it will continue, if it does not, I can easily make it up--, or something along those lines anyway.  And we all believe that some form of Money Management will back us up.  Wrong.  Flat betting is a wicked security blanket, IMO.  Countless players fall and it is because of nothing more than the way they wager, grind down, or fail to capitalize on it while it is presenting easily capitalizing events. 

Players tend to believe the,  Bank wins more, slogan, statistics or theory.  Yes, it does at times.  But likewise, Players does also.  And with the amount of time you will spend at a bac table, in marathon session or a super-fast quick one, all of it combined is so miniscule on a comparison scale in relationship to how those Banker and Player statistical numbers were developed.  Why is that so hard to understand?  Do you really think you are going to get the statistical edge within the 1 or 3 or 5 or 10 shoes you play?  What I mean is, do you think you will have the same results that produce an extra 1% or so within a few hundred or thousand hands that was discovered over the course of millions and billions of hands?

I will not challenge the odds and the statistics of baccarat, they are probably correct.  So what?  They will not apply at the table.  Not with any kind of consistency whatsoever.  They will not be truly represented within 1 or 3 or 10 shoes, or in all your sessions of play for months combined.  Once you clearly understand that, you will realize and grasp why flat betting and continually betting on any one side will grind you down.   

When you engage in Martingale negative progression steps of 5-6-7 and 8, you will recover sometimes, maybe most of the time.  However, there will be times that you will not, and those times will take your entire bank roll plus.  If you are wealthy, you are not playing this game anyway with this information.  By the way, plenty of wealthy people have lost millions and hundreds of millions playing baccarat using that same Martingale negative progression, with the thought they could recover.  So, the devastation will be virtually impossible to make up especially if you continue the Martingale when the make-up sessions encounter losses as well.

Someone wrote something on another board, and it read something like the following: Martingale at best, will keep you in the game longer but cannot ultimately win.  Very true. 

[alrelax]

Money Management Guidelines Part 2

I have previously mentioned what I feel is, that of a proper Money Management method that will boast the player?s buy in/bankroll and capitalize on sizable wins, cutting down large amounts of play time at the table. 

My Money Management method is made up of 6 areas. 

1)    Capital Risk.  The buy in.  Partial bank roll, a fraction of it for a session.

2)    1-3-2-6 and/or 1-3-2-4 type of positive progressions.  Max of 2 negative progressions.

3)    1/3rd--1/3rd--1/3 Dividing up wins every so often.

4)     1 + 4 Parlay for sideways wagers excluding my B or P wagering

5)     Pull down and use their money for clear thought process

6)     Length of play time.

The above will govern how long I play and what happens to me.  I have no set win stop or loss stop.  However, I am governed by my buy in and subsequent losses. 

One thing Is rock solid, going to happen, will never change, cannot change and will 100% of the time, be the ultimate outcome.  That is, turn of events, change of presentments, the failure of the player and countless other things that all equate to one thing.  And that is, you will lose what you win if your play continues.  That is why you Money Management method must be allowed to make you more in quicker and larger denominations if you win, and you must walk away from the table with a portion of the win, if you begin to lose. 

Risk.  Pure speculative risk.  Complete open mind with extreme consciousness and awareness.  Stop loss/stop win does not exist in a sense where it is equated to a few units each way.

1/3rds.   If you do not win you have nothing to manage.  If you win, you must protect yourself and I have referred to and almost regularly allow the following to manage my win money.  1/3rd back to my buy in, in front of me.  1/3rd to my pocket and locked up, never to be used again.  1/3rd to a reserve pocket in case I do lose and still decide to play that same session.  If not, then 2/3rds to the locked-up section and totally off limits, etc.   

1 + 4 Side Parlay of wagering.  I use a very little part of my win money before splitting it up to 1/3rds as I mentioned for the allocation of 3 to 5 side wagers that I will attempt to parlay each one, up to 4 times.  Say I won $700.00.  I would put $500.00 aside for 5 attempts at my 1 + 4 Side Parlay wagers.  Each one I would attempt to build up to $3,200.00.  A $100.00 wager parlayed 4 times will equal $3,200.00.  I give myself 5 chances to do that.  Or perhaps I spilt up $1,000.00 for 5 chances at $200.00 each or greater numbers.  In the first example, then I put the other $200.00 to my win money, etc.  These wagers have nothing to do with my straight up B or P wagering, they would be on top of them without regards to my buy in stack, etc.

Pull down and use their money to positively progress with clear thought.  Self-explanatory.

Length of play.  It will turn.  The sole governing factor in my length of play, is how the wins versus the losses are occurring.  What I already won.  You cannot do anything except fall prey to the events waiting to come out.  That is what most do not realize in their management of their time at the table. 

These things combined is my Money Management method.  It works for me, more times than it does not.  A few units here and few units there or a stop loss of 3 units, will not do anything for you after numerous times of playing except grind you down.  IMO.

[alrelax]

2 People have asked me about this along with MM. 

I have made more larger wins using my 1/3rd-1/3rd-1/3rd and my 1+4 Side Parlay block of wagering, than anything else.

My 1 + 4 Side Parlay wagering thing, is not bets placed on F-7s, P-8s, Ties, or any other side bet, they are all placed on B or P along with a regular wager.  The 1 + 4 Side Parlay block of wagers, derived from win money might take me 20 or 40 or 80 hands to complete?  Varies.  Think of someone betting blacks or purples or stacks of greens, takes $200 and gets 2 stacks of red chips and occasionally throws a red chip or two on a F-7 or a 200 to 1 (3 card 8/9), etc.  Same type of wagering. 

This method allows me to use the casinos money as well as maintain a much clearer mind.  To me it is sideways money I call it.  Not even from my buy-in stack. 

It has worked and worked very nicely for me. 

Last week I won $1,000.00 relatively quick in the beginning.  I put $500.00 away and divided up the other $500.00 into four chances at $125.00 each to perform one successful, $125.00-$250.00-$500.00-$1,000.00-$2,000.00 (1 + 4 Side Parlay) block of bets.  After numerous hands and time, I lost the first 2 attempts.  On the third one, I did complete it.  $4,000.00 win.  So, I put the $4,125.00 in my pocket and that was locked up.

To me, that is a money management method at work.  Not having a $1,000.00 buy in and then forming an allocation of X amount of hands, based upon what is or has come out or worse yet, I will wager X amount of times on every hand following a single or double or a 4 IAR and then put the win money away or something similar to that. 

[ChopChop]

Similar concept with your F7 and P8 bets?  Not taken from buyin money but from win money only?  Are you a true bettor?

[alrelax]

Similar concept with your F7 and P8 bets?  Not taken from buyin money but from win money only?  Are you a true bettor?

Absolutely.  I just build on and take higher risk on the win money than I do my buy-in money. 

I have learned over years that two things hold true and those two things happen more than anything else.

1)  The longer you play, the greater the risk;

2)  Scared money and emotions will kill most of your chances of winning a session.

Therefore, I concentrate on clear mind and being neutral.  I risk every initial buy in with the shortest goal to initially win something decent to take the chance to pounce on the casino.  I view and feel different about wagering the casinos money than I do my at risk buy in. 

No guts no glory, doesn't go too far in Baccarat.  It may for a few hands, it may for one or two sessions but if you repeatedly do that and you live by that, your bankroll and every other one will be exhausted in the near future. I gather that's what you are referring to when you say, you are no true bettor?

Hopefully that makes sense to you. 

[ChopChop]

I hate auto correct!  Lol... I meant are you a tie bettor.

[alrelax]

No almost never do I bet a tie. But tonight I wish I did because there was 11 ties in the first 29 hands. Including four in a row that had two 7-7 ties an eight eight natural tie and a 9-9 natural tie, but of course those are few and far in-between those shoes