Thanks Magician and Alrelax for your views.

The variance, simply mean, the winning hits, too few, to produce a profit.
We can't predict when the EXTREME will arrive and go...
Thus we simply WAIT, for it to present itself, and go...How?
We can't predict when it will go, we simply wait till the outcome seem to hit within math expectation,
but then again, the extreme may arrive again! Thus we take the risk, that the extreme won't back2back.

In any system, you see variance come and go  in a WAVE...

If you bet any system, FLATBET,
and chart the result in a single line, you see the line moving like a snake being beaten, up and down, pointing SOUTHEAST,
due to the edge.

The up is positive variance, and down is negative variance, and the dropdown like cliff is EXTREME .
It the extreme causing us losing all our br...

If we know that variance never failed to present itself in wave, why not JUST WAIT FOR IT TO GO, WHY TAKE THE RISK!?

Gentlemen,
Since the first casino open stall, thousands of systems that people devised can't beat the casino, and the math prof.  shrieking their lung out since, that we can't have edge, or win and beatthe casino's holy grail, that namely roulette, they say we can't even win, if the wheel have no green!

Maybe we should leave the betselection and move to other plane, that avoiding extreme variance in the progression itself.

We know that, when extreme in bet selection, hit, the winning hit keep sleeping and our progression keep snowballing till we bust our br,
thus if we wait for the extreme in selection, and virtual bet the progression, till the selection stabilized,  then we bet the progression halfway, we already "save",  a bundle of our br, and proceed to win.

This way , we already avoid the edge, and avoid the debacle of busting our br.

In oversimplified example,
Labby win when 33%+1,
When we bet from the start virtually with 1u, as the 1st bet, we wait for extreme variance, and when it seem to stabilized,  we bet the labby halfway, thus the winning is more than 1u, and if losing extreme keep coming, the cut losses, is not vis a vis, and out of context , or out of sync mathematically. ?...
What your opinion?

Thanks Kattila for your view, it  very interesting,  for the concept of dozen.


Since double dozen and single dozen , hit by extreme variance, we lose when we bet them with deadly progression.

Thus we mut think out a way to
AVIODING EXTREME VARIANCE...IN THE PROGRESSION ITSELF.

not avoiding extreme variance in BETSELECTION...
but avoiding extreme variance in the.....PROGRESSION!!!


VIRTUAL BET the progression, and bet the progression in the halfway.

This way, hopefully, we win more than lose amount...imho.

People ask,
How to bet SINGLE DOZEN IN MATRIX OF 3DZ.

we bet when first and second matrix are TWO DIFFERENT DOZENS, and bet the third as SINGLE BET.

say,
Permutation of 3different-dz, may SINGLE VERSUS SERIES-OF 2, 3, 4, 5, 6..INFINITE

Thus, when a single permutation  hit, we bet it may produce a series...

123, bet next 3spins, will 3different dz , again
321, bet the third spin=1dz....hit...
The probability=33%, minus green, thus a long day wait to bet.

Thanks Albalaha for your post.

Though the probability for 3different-dz/ 3spin, will produce no edge whatsoever,
I think the coincidence of a combo to repeat itself, may due to another theory,
Probability-of - coincidences,  perhaps?

If we see a rather rare coincidence,
Say,
123, follow by...
111....then after a while...

123, followed again, by,
111....then after a while...

123...hit, will the next three spins, be
111....again?

Though the probability remain unchance, and has no edge, but the repeat of coincidence, remain highly unlikely.


The same , as to ds,
If we see, six different ds in six spins,
Will the next six spins has six different ds...again?
Though the probability remain the same , but the coincidence highly unlikely....

say,
If we see five different ds in 6spins,
123455...will the next 6spins produce...
123455....again?

Thus, if you see...
123...there be three possibilities....

If you bet any ,two dozen, then if it "only two different dz in 3spins,",.. you win...and
If it "3 different dz in 3spins"...you win...

Lose when only one dz hit, that you choose not to bet....

Three different dz in three spins,


223
(123)...a single
233...

That a single of a permutation, among , (only two dz in three spins matrix)


Say,
123...follow by another three different dz in next three spins=33% minus green.

eg
123,
213....as a SERIES,  of TWO...(of three different dz matrix)

321,
123
231....=series of three

231,
321,
213,
231..=series of four.

And you will see series of five, six, seven  ...too!

Probability 33% for single..
66%..for series (of 2 and more)

Thus when you see a single, you may bet, it may go to series, or becoming a single...

eg..

You see..
123....bet next matrix may three different dz ....=33% chances. minus green


You see..
123...bet next matrix= only two, or only one dz..=66%....minus green

If you see..
111, follow by...
222, do you think that...it be follow by...
333...?

We can bet the highly unlikely coincidence,  though the probability remain the same...

Say,
If you see a repeat of matrix,

123, then..
123 again,
After a while,
123  hit, will the next three spin be...
123 again?


Or,
123, follow by..
111....
Then after a while...
123 hit, will the next three spins be...
111....again?

Thanks Stringbeanpc.



Say, what the probability , if

123, then 123 hit again,

thus 123, 123..
And then, other permutations hit for next tens of spins,

Now 123 hit again....will next three spins, be 123?again?


123
123....
×××
×××
×××
×××
123...now, will 123 hit again?...
=============

Other example...
Say,

312,then...
111.....
Xxx
Xxx...
312  hit,again,... (will 111 hit again, after 312 hit, repeating the previous 312, 111? Back to back?

Sputnik,
Wait for the extreme variance to pass, as your idea, that...wait  for 6losses, then a  fictive win, and start bet...

We could only bet the third spin, after the first and 2nd spin produced 2 different dozens.

eg.
1st =dz 1, 2nd=dz2, then we bet the 3rd spin=dz3.
Thus the probability= 33%, minus HE.


The reverse also true,
If we bet there only 2 different dozens in 3spins, =66%...minus HE.

The bad news is , extreme variance,  and it may not rtm in short run.  Though it quite STABLE  in 300+- spins, imho.

33%, minus HE.....as in pinwheel.

Hi Lugi,
With respect,

Its 1u for 100spins, 2u for next 100spins and 4u for next 100spins.
Thanks, sorry for the misunderstanding.

[quote author=Lugi link=topic=9954.msg64468#msg64468 date=1534111629


aiming for a 45~50% strike rate in the short term, than all you would have to do is wrap a mild negative progression around whatever it is, much more realistic
[/quote]
100% agreed!
(This what I trying to say for so long,  but my poor english...sigh)