A lot has been posted by Alrelax and Gizmotron about how they win using their years of experience, knowledge of the game, situational awareness etc.
Others like Xander and Mike have posted that you need an edge.
I am not here to debate the merits of Alrelax and Gizmotron's methods, but I would like to explore Xander's and Mikes position of having an EDGE.
What is an EDGE? Can you actually get an EDGE? To me an EDGE would be something mathematical, statistical or physical that would turn the odds or probability in your favor.
Since each spin is independent you have the same chance (1/37) of hitting any number and getting paid 35-1 instead of 37-1, hence the Casino's edge.
So what can you do? Simple: DON'T' PLAY EACH SPIN. Don't play the Casino's game.
Play GROUP OF SPINS. As I posted in part 1:
https://betselection.cc/roulette-forum/use-math-to-beat-roulettebaccarat/
The VDW plays with a GROUP OF 9 spins, however it is complex and difficult to play.
Let's start with something easier to understand.
When you play with a GROUP OF SPINS a dependency can be created, they are no longer independent spins, thus you are no longer playing the Casino's game.
You might have heard the expression that the way to win is to play a game within a game. In other words don't play the Casino's game, play your own game within the Casino's game.
What I like to explore are 3 different Group of Spins examples:
1. Doublets fixed and it's effect.
2. Doublets as a Game and it's effect
3. Triplets as a Game and it's effect
DOUBLETS FIXED AND IT'S EFFECT
Let's compare the single spin bet selection of FTL (Follow The Last) to the static Doublets "RB". Remember, RB is a fixed bet, it does not change. RBRBRBRBRB. It is non-random.
Playing Single Spin FTL you will have:
RRRRRRRRRR Long Win Streak on Red (you win 10 units)
BBBBBBBBBB Long Win Streak on Black (you win 10 units)
RBRBRBRBRB Long Loss Streak on Chops (you lose 10 units)
BRBRBRBRBR Long Loss Streak on Chops (you lose 10 units)
Playing Doublets fixed "RB"
RRRRRRRRRR Break Even Streak on Red (you win 0 units)
BBBBBBBBBB Break Even Streak on Black (you win 0 units)
RBRBRBRBRB Long Win Steak on chops (you win 10 units)
BRBRBRBRBR Long Loss Streak on chops (you lose 10 units)
Do you see the difference? FTL has 4 Long Streaks and Group of 2 Spins RB has only 2 Long Streaks and 2 break even streaks, hence the fluctuations (swings in your bankroll) will be less and you are more likely to get a more Stable Bet Result.
Playing a fixed Doublet does not change the odds but it does change the fluctuation in your results. This is all I wanted to show you, ie, playing with a Group of Spins has an effect. This is simply the first step to understanding my Group of Spins theory.
DOUBLETS AS A GAME AND IT'S EFFECT
Now let's take the Fixed Doublets and make it a Game (bet selection).
The Game will be to bet that the second spin in the Doublet will match the first spin. This is similar to FTL but it only applies every second spin, not every spin. It too, is non-random.
So if first spin is a B we bet for another B to get BB, end of Game after 2 Spins. If first spin is a R we bet R to get RR after 2 spins, end of Game.
If we got a BR or RB then we lose the Game.
I thought getting a BB or RR would be the same as getting an RB or BR.
I was wrong.
It takes an average of 4 Spins to get RB or BR while it takes an average of 6 spins to get either BB or RR.
The reason it takes longer is because there are no "overlapping" RR or BB. For example if you have "RRRR". If you are playing the Casino's game (every spin) you would have 3 Sets of RR (1&2 Spins, 2&3rd spins and 3rd&4th spins).
Playing our Game of Doublets you would only have 2 sets of RR (1st&2nd spin and 3rd & 4th spins). Remember the Game ends after the 2nd spin and a new Game begins on 3rd Spin.
Check out this YouTube for a more detailed explanation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDw2Pu0-H4g
Now can you see how a Group of Spins can affect the outcome? One would assume that RB and BR would have the same number of spins to complete as BB and RR but it is not so. This is another tool that may be used in your quest to beat roulette/baccarat.
TRIPLETS AS A GAME AND IT'S EFFECT
Here are the 8 possibilities for Triplets
RRR
BBB
RRB
RBR
RBB
BBR
BRB
BRR
The non-random Game will be as follows:
If the first spin is a "R", then we bet that the second spin in the Triplet will also be a "R". If the 2nd spin is an "R", we will bet the third spin to be a "R".
This Game eliminates 2 of the 8 Triplets, ie. BBB does not have an R and BBR has a R in the 3rd spin but that does not count as the Game ends on the 3rd spin. This is the key, the Game ends after 3 spins. This is your Game, you control what you want to do.
So we only have 6 Triplets to play with. Remember we are only looking for an R to follow an R.
Result Fraction
BRB B 0
RBB B 0
BRR R 1
RBR B 0
RRB RB .5
RRR RR 1
Totals 2.5/6
One would expect a 50/50 (3/6) outcome but because we are playing our own Game (Group of 3 Spins) we can create a Bias or would we call this an EDGE?
Check out this visual explanation on You Tube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPZFQ6i759g
For those more mathematically inclined check out the attached PDF.
I hope I have been able to show you that a Group of 2 Spins (Doublets Fixed) did not change the odds but did change the fluctuation in results AND the same Group of 2 spins when played as a Game can have unequal outcomes AND finally that a Game (Triplets), a Group of 3 spins can show a bias or an Edge.
I trust this will give you a little more insight into how to use math and statistics to your benefit.
Cheers
Nick
I get that you don't want to hear more gizmotron crud. When you go looking for randomness characteristics you will run right into what causes them. You can decide that it is due or you will understand that it is just coincidence.
Once you see the global effect you will never be able to then not see it anymore.
Now you don't need to be bored by my content in your thread.
***
Playing a fixed Doublet does not change the odds but it does change the fluctuation in your results. This is all I wanted to show you, ie, playing with a Group of Spins has an effect. This is simply the first step to understanding my Group of Spins theory.
***
I agree with you.
Did you ever try other ways of non -random, like fixed patterns made by splits or streets ?
Not complete EC s groups yet, but are growing groups.
Ex. streets :
Str / Pattern (chops)
3 1
7 2
12 1
8 2
1 1
4 2
5 1
9 2 bet for change (to become series)
Or,
Str / pattern (series of two)
7 1
12 1
3 2
8 2
9 1
2 1
11 2
4 2 bet to become series of 3
( or bet for singles)
I bet for max. 5 spins, example next spins
9 1 L1
1 1 new L2
5 2 new L3
4 2 L4
11 2 W
many ways and patterns( non random ) to play
Hello Gizmotron, sorry if you thought I was attacking the way you play, I was certainly not. My point was that your method and Alrelax method were both thoroughly discussed previously but Xander and Mike's point of an "EDGE" has not been. I am just trying to do "oppositional research" and see if we can actually get an EDGE without using a physical bias.
Perhaps Xander or Mike have an EDGE and if so, they might give us a direction to follow.
Hello Kattila, I just love exploring non-random patterns like you have outlined, however, I am a coder and I need step by step instructions in order to follow what you are explaining. Could you kindly using just 1 pattern show what the pattern is and how you obtain a bet selection? More details. Thanks.
Thanks Nick for starting another interesting thread on ideas surrounding non-random concepts.
I did a quick 200 spin test using random.org to test the doublets just to see how the averages performed and they were pretty much in line with what the video suggested. It's always great to see things in a different light because it gets the creativity going.
***
Hello Kattila, I just love exploring non-random patterns like you have outlined, however, I am a coder and I need step by step instructions in order to follow what you are explaining. Could you kindly using just 1 pattern show what the pattern is and how you obtain a bet selection? More details. Thanks.
***
Hi Nick, i have few methods based on same base, but let s start with one
easy from above. This one is with 2 group ( 1 and 2 ) other methods with
3 groups ( 1,2 and 3 ). Can use also splits .
Wait 8 different streets , or can be repeats but must be in the same
group and following the pattern 11221122. After the trigger 11221122
if new street hit and we lose , put that street in same order /pattern.
It s safer to wait 10 streets ( 1122112211) but long time to wait.
We bet (after trigger ) for position 2 or for series of 3.
Str / pattern and group
4 1
7 1
11 2
6 2
12 1
4 1 (see repeat in same group)
9 2
2 2 bet group 2
7 1 L1, bet group 2
3 1 new L2 bet group 1
10 2 new L3 bet gr 1
8 2 new L4 bet gr 2
2 2 W
So bet for max. 5 spins, W or L5 , retrack.
Progression levels /possitive, rise only after W session if necesary,
never rise after L5, better down one level:
1,2,3,5,10 / 12,15,25,40,70 / 80 ,90,120,150 ,200.
Other example,
Str / pattern
3 1
11 1
5 2
8 2
1 1
4 1
12 2
10 2 bet group 2
2 1 new l1 bet gr 2
3 1 l2 bet gr 1
7 2 new l3 bet gr 1
5 2 l4 bet gr 2
12 2 w
cheers
The stats for the doublets get interesting when you run two different streams.
So taking the 4 combinations which could be anything really...…
11
12
22
21
I got the following after a few more short tests....
11 = 48/6 = 8 (weakest)
12 = 41/12 = 3.5
22 = 41/9 = 4.5
21 = 45/13 = 3.5
2nd test
11 = 30/6 = 5
12 = 39/13 = 3
22 = 21/3 = 7 (weakest)
21 = 39/13 = 3
Based on that info, my approach would be to play against the weakest when opportunities arose.
cheers
Are you assuming that the weak will continue to be weak and not become strong and come back with a vengeance?
Glen has posted several threads on how math can never beat baccarat so I thought it important to go over the basic concept of Non-Random. We need to understand what this is all about before proceeding further.
Random means anything is possible.
Non Random are limiting events. They can be limited by Physics or Math.
A physical roulette wheel that is out of balance due to dust and dirt accumulating around the spindle would cause the ball to favor a sector. The Laws of Physics dictate that the ball has to drop in one sector more often than any other. It HAS TO HAPPEN, it HAS TO OBEY the Laws of Physics.
This is a Non Random event. The Laws of Physics pay absolutely NO ATTENTION to the random nature of the game, nor to Casino's edge of 2.57%. It cares less that a number will repeat on average once every 8 spins. So what if the Law of Thirds produces 13 unhit numbers in 37 spins.
Do you see the point here? Throw out the laws of probability and possibilities normally associated with roulette. They don't matter. What matters is that the Law of Physics will produce results not associated with random. Gravity will make sure that ball lands in the same sector again and again.
It is easy to see why a biased wheel favors a sector and has nothing to do with the normal probabilities and possibilities associated with roulette.
It is more difficult to understand that the Laws of Math are also a Non Random event. It too does not care about the probabilities or possibilities inherent in Roulette or Baccarat.
The first law that I explored was the VDW as outlined in Part 1 of my series.
https://betselection.cc/roulette-forum/use-math-to-beat-roulettebaccarat/
To refresh your memory on this theory it states that in any binary event (like Red/Black, Banker/Player, Pass/Don't Pass) you will always and I mean ALWAYS have an Arithmetic Progression within 9 Spins/hands.
Just like 1+1=2, this law always happens regardless of the endless possibilities.
I am not advocating a strategy yet, I just want everyone to understand this VDW law. If you don't just give me 9 spins/hands (without ties or zero) and I will always show you an Arithmetic Progression.
Do you understand the importance of the Laws of Math. They ALWAYS happen. Would you rather develop a bet selection based on probabilities or based on something that ALWAYS happens?
That was a rhetorical question.
Before proceeding, does everyone understand the concept of Non Random and how the Laws of Math apply? Any questions?
Cheers
Nick
Nick,
I don't really see the distinction that you're trying to make between random and non-random (or the "laws of probability" and "the laws of math").
QuoteRandom means anything is possible.
Non Random are limiting events. They can be limited by Physics or Math.
A physical roulette wheel that is out of balance due to dust and dirt accumulating around the spindle would cause the ball to favor a sector. The Laws of Physics dictate that the ball has to drop in one sector more often than any other. It HAS TO HAPPEN, it HAS TO OBEY the Laws of Physics.
But the laws of physics are always working, not only if the wheel is biased. "Random" just means we are ignorant of the true causes of an event. We can know things which MUST happen, such as that there must be at least one repeat in 38 spins on a single zero wheel, but it doesn't help us to predict the next number. Conversely, there are probabilistic situations (where the outcomes are not fully determined) where we actually CAN predict the outcome to a degree better than chance (an example would be visual ballistics).
Hi Mike, sorry if I ramble and cause confusion.
The distinction that I was trying to make is this:
The Laws of Physics totally disregard the probabilities of the wheel.
The Laws of Math totally disregard the probabilities of the wheel.
Random does not affect the Laws of Physics or Math, hence the term NON-RANDOM.
We play the game in a Non-Random manner where PAST SPINS ARE NECESSARY.
It is an entirely new way to approach the games.
When you play a Non-Random game you are playing for something to happen according to the Laws of Math, thus you are increasing the accuracy of your predictions.
Let's explore the Triplets further. As shown earlier for binary events we should get a 3/6 (50%) result but we get 2.5/6 results exposing a bias to be exploited. This is for No Zero Roulette, Baccarat or Craps which can be binary.
This is a very small EDGE but it is consistent and can best be utilized with on line casino's as you can play more spins per hour.
I used a mild progression for faster accumulation.
This is mechanical and boring.
This can be played one side only (ie, only Banker) or both sides (Red/Black). I prefer both sides as we get twice as many bets.
Here are the rules for this 3 Spin/Hand Game:
Spin # 1: NO BET
Spin # 2: If Spin #1 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 1 is Black Bet Black
Spin # 3: If Spin #2 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 2 is Black Bet Black, End of Game
Spin # 4: NO BET
Spin # 5: If Spin #4 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 4 is Black Bet Black
Spin # 6: If Spin #5 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 5 is Black Bet Black, End of Game
Etc.
That's it. Simple and mechanical.
We just tested this system with 100,000 spins generated by Bet Voyager No Zero Casino. It does not matter where the numbers came from as the Laws of Math apply to all numbers, RNG or otherwise.
The attached picture shows the results for these 100,000 spins and the 66,600 bets that were placed.
We tested these in 10,000 spins increments so you will see 10 results.
As you can see even with a progression it does not generate much of a profit/spin but a profit none the less and the results were consistent and stable from one session to another.
Cheers
Nick
Hi Nickmsi,
Just my 1cent,
(As you, and many members here already know this method,)
If you very sure that your vdw, will have EDGE, in 1000placed bet, flatbet, or even zero edge, or -1% edge,
Then simply play virtual, restart at every virtual profit,
till it show reasonable drawdown, (without any profit, or losing,
from the begining of virtual bet),then start bet, flatbet till profit.
Hi Nick, did you try your bet with possitive progression?
Levels :
1,2 / 3,6 / 10,20 / 30,60 / 100, 200 / 300,600 (optional this last level)
Rise level after W session , reset at new high.
Down one level after L2. After twice in row L2 i would stop and wait
virtual W, then bet again for real.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here one of my non -random ECs bet
see excel file
Thanks Katilla, will download and test it out.
Cheers
Nick
"You might have heard the expression that the way to win is to play a game within a game. In other words don�t play the Casino�s game, play your own game within the Casino�s game."
The above was a quote from NICKMSI's post within his first few sentences on the previous page.
Very strong and very real words you said in your post here!
I just wrote something with that in mind, called Fallacy & Belief in Brief, in General Discussion Room.
Possibly read it and think about it.
Hi Glen, Will be happy to read your post..
In recent posts I explained the Triplets "Hot Hand" theory which says if you make a shot you will continue to make your shots. In other words, if you get a R it should be followed by an R. In a future post we will explore the opposite, if you get an R you will more likely get a B. This would disprove the "Hot Hand" theory.
But in the meantime, let's take a look at Group of 2 Spins, Fixed RBBRBRBRB in particular. This is a Non-Random bet selection. It simple alternates the bet form R to B to R to B etc. Never changes, it is mechanical. This is the Game within the Game of roulette/baccarat.
Because of this Fixed bet, you reduce the fluctuations of your results. Remember, if you get a streak of Blacks this will win 50% of the time and likewise with a streak of Red you will win 50%. This ALWAYS will happen.
In this Game something will ALWAYS happen. Just like the VDW, an Arithmetic Progression will ALWAYS happen.
This is the point of a Non-Random system. You are playing for something to ALWAYS HAPPEN verses playing a random game where you are only guessing when a repeat will happen, when a pattern will be formed etc (not withstanding your years of experience, knowledge and situational awareness).
Wouldn't you rather be playing for something you know has to happen rather than guessing??
Let's look at some empirical data regarding the Group of 2 spins, Fixed RBRBRB. This will clearly show the stability of your results.
I did 2 tests of 100,000 spins. Both test used the same data. Flat betting on both.
One test was the Non-Random Fixed RBRBRB and the other was a Random FTL (Follow The Last).
The results are attached.
Note the FTL had a High of 189 and a low of -260 which is a range of 449.
The RBRBRB had a high of 151 and a low of -122 which is a range of 273.
This lower range stabilizes your results, therefore, you need a smaller bankroll.
The FTL almost won 5/10 sessions. The RBRBRB won 8/10.
FTL lost -326 units while the RBRBRB won +319 units.
I hope you are beginning to see some of the benefits of a Non-Random system.
Cheers
Nick
Thanks Nickmsi for your charts and thought,
appreciate them.
May you please test this Non Random bet for double dozen, to see whether it is stable, or streaky in nature.
If the last spin=dozen1, then bet dz1&dz2,
If the last spin=dozen2, then bet dz2&dz3,
If the last spin=dozen 3, then bet dz3&dz1,
If zero hit, then the previous last dozen hit will be the indicator.
I tried to test, by hand , small sample though, and found it rather stable, and streaky.
Thanks in advance.
Hi Beat The Wheel,
Glad to be of help. Your system is actually a Random system as the bet selection is based on a random event, ie, the last spin.
I have tested this random system with 10,000 live casino spins and the resulting graph is attached.
I also attached my excel sheet with this system so you can see the streaks etc.
Cheers
Nick
Quote from: Nickmsi on July 25, 2018, 02:15:32 PM
Let�s explore the Triplets further. As shown earlier for binary events we should get a 3/6 (50%) result but we get 2.5/6 results exposing a bias to be exploited. This is for No Zero Roulette, Baccarat or Craps which can be binary.
This is a very small EDGE but it is consistent and can best be utilized with on line casino�s as you can play more spins per hour.
I used a mild progression for faster accumulation.
This is mechanical and boring.
This can be played one side only (ie, only Banker) or both sides (Red/Black). I prefer both sides as we get twice as many bets.
Here are the rules for this 3 Spin/Hand Game:
Spin # 1: NO BET
Spin # 2: If Spin #1 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 1 is Black Bet Black
Spin # 3: If Spin #2 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 2 is Black Bet Black, End of Game
Spin # 4: NO BET
Spin # 5: If Spin #4 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 4 is Black Bet Black
Spin # 6: If Spin #5 is Red Bet Red, If Spin # 5 is Black Bet Black, End of Game
Etc.
That�s it. Simple and mechanical.
We just tested this system with 100,000 spins generated by Bet Voyager No Zero Casino. It does not matter where the numbers came from as the Laws of Math apply to all numbers, RNG or otherwise.
The attached picture shows the results for these 100,000 spins and the 66,600 bets that were placed.
We tested these in 10,000 spins increments so you will see 10 results.
As you can see even with a progression it does not generate much of a profit/spin but a profit none the less and the results were consistent and stable from one session to another.
Cheers
Nick
wow
I have just read all concepts now.
I have one basic question, whether playing one side eg Player side, or are we able to generate a real edge?
Certainly Nick carried out the simulations of a completely flat bet.
What were the results after 10 k and 100k spins?
If they even gave a minimum edge of 0.2-0.5% over baccarat house edge, it would be a breakthrough in longrun.
Hi Nick,
In your Triplets simulations did you noticed long bad runs like ? :
(each 1. is the no bet from your example)
1. R bet R
2. B L1, bet B
3. R L2
1. R bet R
2. B L1, bet B
3. R L2
1. B bet B
2. R L1, bet R
3. B L2
....so on....
If yes (long bad run of many consecutive L2) then maybe
is good to stop at the second L2, wait one wirtual W and
start again for real. Just curious if make any difference in
long run.
Also, did you try your bet with possitive progression?
Levels :
1,2 / 3,6 / 10,20 / 30,60 / 100, 200 / 300,600 (optional this last level)
Rise level after W session , reset at new high.
Down one level after L2. After twice in row L2 i would stop and wait
virtual W, then bet again for real.
Same when bet the chop bet RBRBRBR.....
i supose sometimes hit some long(or semi long) bad runs,
and try to avoid them with the Lw strategy.
Hi Katilla, I have not had the time to devote to exploring the Fixed RBRBRB method but you are correct, it will get long losing streaks of BRBRBR and conversely long winning streaks of RBRBRB. You are right in that we can do a lot of virtually bets, switching of bets, multiple streams in order to improve the selection. But right now I am concentrating on the Triplets, where I have a known edge.
Hi Ozon, I have attached my Flat betting results for the Triplets. The first 3 are just graphs of the 10 results and the last is the summary showing we won 6/10 sessions for a profit of 173 units.
I have shown previously the 'Hot Hand" system where it was expected that if you hit a shot, you would more likely to hit the next shot, ie, a Red would follow a Red, etc.
In the next postings I will show you that this is a fallacy. Stay tuned.
Cheers
Nick
I was talking about Triplets also, the eventual use of the LWs strategy
and maybe possitive progression.
Far from me the idea of wanting to denigrate these research on the VDW, but when I hear about "non-random" bets, I feel obliged to intervene.
Because the theorem of VDW does not say that we must play the moves by following.
Take any series of 9 disjoint spins in permanence, and the VDW theorem will be respected.
Which means that no matter if you bet "red" or "black", you respect the "VDW".
In other words when you bet "red" by following a certain procedure of "VDW", another bet "black" while also respecting the "VDW".
They both make "non-random" bets as you say!
We have shown that the Triplets have a bias of 2.5/6 instead of 3/6 but did the bias apply to following the Hot Hand or Against them making the shots.
I was not sure, so I have tested both ways.
Earlier we showed how to bet FOR the Hot Hand to continue, ie, if they made a shot it would be followed by another basket, Red follow Red, Banker follows Banker etc.
Now let's see what happens if we bet AGAINST the Hot Hand continuing, ie, we are betting that another basket will NOT be made.
This means Black would follow a Red, Player would follow a Banker, etc.
Here are the rules for this 3 Spin/Hand Game betting AGAINST:
Spin # 1: NO BET
Spin # 2: If Spin #1 is Red Bet Black, If Spin # 1 is Black Bet Red
Spin # 3: If Spin #2 is Red Bet Black, If Spin # 2 is Black Bet Red, End of Game
Spin # 4: NO BET
Spin # 5: If Spin #4 is Red Bet Black, If Spin # 4 is Black Bet Red
Spin # 6: If Spin #5 is Red Bet Black, If Spin # 5 is Black Bet Red, End of Game
Etc.
I have attached 2 pictures of each result Flat Betting.
Betting FOR the Hot Hand to continue won 5/10 sessions for a loss of -358 units.
Betting AGAINST the Hot Hand continuing won 6/10 for a profit of 173 units.
Based on the above results betting AGAINST the previous spin/hand in the 3 Step Triplet method has the EDGE.
Once again, the EDGE is small so we need to add a progression to make it playable. More to come.
Hi Nickmsi,
I wonder if we could bet Vdw, for short term,
(Bet every trigger@9spins....reset win or lose)
Say, 2person play both sides, as a team,
with positive prog.1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ...that
add 1u, when win, (but stay at 1u, when lose from beginning).
Stop at single profit.
eg,
RRBBBBBBB
red lose 1u, B won more....
Please test.
Thanks in advance.
Hi Beat The Wheel, we are concentrating 100% on getting the best combinations and progressions possible for the Triplet system that we are far behind in coding systems for others, like yourself.
Testing is time consuming so at this time we can report that we have several good results so far.
Let's review.
The PHD's and PDF mathematical reports shown earlier concluded:
"We prove that in a finite sequence of data that is generated by repeated realizations of a binary i.i.d.
random variable, the expected proportion of successes, on those realizations that immediately follow
a streak of successes, is strictly less than the underlying probability of success."
This means that a "finite sequence of data" is 3 Spins/hands.
"binary random variables" is Red or Black, Banker or Player, Pass or Don't Pass.
"immediately follow a streak of successes" is Red following Red, Player following Player etc.
"is strictly less than the underlying probability of success" is the EDGE.
That's the math of it.
Our empirical data testing 100,000 spins confirms this EDGE.
What does it mean for playing.
A mechanical and simple to play system
Each of you can determine the best way for you to play, the best combination of systems and the best progressions to use or flat
betting.
Our priority is to find the best system to play for 1,000 to 2,000 spins/hands per day. So far we can conclude that a combination of Doublets and Triplets is better than just the Triplets alone.
Cheers
Nick
Hi Nickmsi,
It very interesting that " combination of doublet and triplet, better than triplet alone, "..(.please tell more., how to play the combination.)
Lets pretend that we have edge, or zero edge in 1000placed bets, then imho, this a way to bet....
Virtual bet till extreme variance hit, huge drawdown, say -30 to -50, in first 250 placed bet,
then bet 1u, for next 250, then 2u for next 250, then 4u for next 250bet......
If it definitely , has edge, zero edge, or even -1% edge, then it must win,
It like 500black&500red balls, in a bag, take out a ball, and cast aside, lookout whichever color drawn out the most in the frst 250, then bet the other color.
In other word,
If we could have a
of non random, bet of 1000placed bet, that ALWAYS,
Have little edge, or ZERO edge, or EVEN -3% edge,
Then, winning with variance management virtual bet, and mild progression, is not a problem...
The trillion dollar question,
Can we create that 1000spins strategy? That with HE not over -3%?
Nickmsi ,
Do you conclude that you have an advantage because you get +176 per 100000 spins?
With or without the zero it is a score that does not mean anything!
Maybe I misread?
What do you call doublets?
Cheers
Nick,
Could you give us an example how
to play the combination of doublets with
triplets.
And the other way the chops way seems to be
a good way to play.
1. No bet
2. Bet oposite spin 1
3. Bet oposite spin 2
1. No bet
2. Bet oposite spin 1
3. Bet oposite spin 2
Still good results with this one?
Thanks
Hi Plolp
"Do you conclude that you have an advantage because you get +176 per 100000 spins?"
I concluded that we have an advantage because it was mathematically proven by PDF file attached earlier and by Professor Lisa Goldberg PHD as shown in her YouTube video.
Math doesn't lie, or so they say. But I needed to prove to myself that we actually do have an advantage so I set out to test it.
Since this is a binary event only 2 ways we could test this.
1. Bet that Red follows a Red
2. Bet that Black follows a Red.
Both of these are 50% chances when played consecutively.
But the test was for a Group of Spins, namely 3, hence my name Triplets.
So I flat bet 100,000 spins each way.
Betting the first way- Red follows Red resulted in a net loss of -358
Betting the second way- Black follows Red resulted in a net gain of +178
Now I had my first validation that this Triplet theory has some merit.
Since then we have tested 100's of different ways to play this I still see this method continually validating this theory.
It doesn't win all the time but it wins more than anything I have seen to date.
Hi Katilla and Beat the Wheel
The Triplet method only wins when we bet it EXACTLY according to the theory, ie,
1st Spin-No Bet
2nd Spin-Bet OTL
3rd Spin-Bet OTL
No other way gives you the EDGE.
We are testing adding progressions and other streams, like the Fixed Doublet of RBRBRB.
Right now, we are finding that adding the Fixed Doublet of RBRBRB in front of the Triplet shows some good results. In other words bet the RBRBRBRBRB for first 10 spins or first 100 spins and then bet the Triplet.
Cheers
Nick
Hi Nickmsi,
Thanks for your posts.
Imho, a very stable bet selection, is utmost,
if in every 1000spins/hand, session...
If we can have at least, worst=-3%, on or before the 1000th,
then it very easy to profit.
Hi Lugi,
This is a response to your post in
https://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/can-anyone-figure-out-how-many-possible-outcomes-exist-in-a-shoe-of-baccarat/msg64459/#new
Yes, I couldn't understand either how you could get an edge when you still get 4W and 4L. I thought the exact thing and figured that since it has been 55 years since college math and dementia is slowing creeping up on me that it must be some kind of math voodoo or new math that I am not aware of.
They showed the bias when applying Fractions to the 3 spin/hand sets as follows:
OOO NB NB NB
OOX NB NB NB Fractions
OXO NB L NB L 0
OXX NB L NB L 0
XOO NB W NB W 1
XOX NB L NB L 0
XXO NB W L WL .5
XXX NB W W WW 1
2.5/6
If you can understand it then " You're a better man than I am, Gunga Din!" But what I do understand is how to test systems.
I have a data file with 100,000 No Zero spins collected from BetVoyager. So I tested both FOR and AGAINST to see if any difference. I used a unit of 1 for both tests on the same data.
The FOR resulted in a loss of -358 units and the AGAINST had a profit of +173.
Having no more No Zero data or baccarat data I tested FOR and AGAINST with 10,000 Single Zero spins from a German Casino knowing that both systems will probably lose but I wanted to see which one loss less.
The FOR test resulted in a High of 11, Low of -229 and ended with -184.
The AGAINST resulted in a High of 39, Low 0f -159 and ended with -142.
Still not proof positive but a good indication.
Currently we are testing individual AGAINST sessions with Bet Voyager and with progression. We have complete 43 sessions and have won 42.
Again, not proof positive but a stronger indication. Testing continues.
Cheers
Nick
Hi Lugi,
This is a response to your post in
https://betselection.cc/baccarat-forum/can-anyone-figure-out-how-many-possible-outcomes-exist-in-a-shoe-of-baccarat/msg64459/#new
Yes, I couldn't understand either how you could get an edge when you still get 4W and 4L. I thought the exact thing and figured that since it has been 55 years since college math and dementia is slowing creeping up on me that it must be some kind of math voodoo or new math that I am not aware of.
They showed the bias when applying Fractions to the 3 spin/hand sets as follows:
OOO NB NB NB
OOX NB NB NB Fractions
OXO NB L NB L 0
OXX NB L NB L 0
XOO NB W NB W 1
XOX NB L NB L 0
XXO NB W L WL .5
XXX NB W W WW 1
2.5/6
If you can understand it then " You're a better man than I am, Gunga Din!" But what I do understand is how to test systems.
I have a data file with 100,000 No Zero spins collected from BetVoyager. So I tested both FOR and AGAINST to see if any difference. I used a unit of 1 for both tests on the same data.
The FOR resulted in a loss of -358 units and the AGAINST had a profit of +173.
Having no more No Zero data or baccarat data I tested FOR and AGAINST with 10,000 Single Zero spins from a German Casino knowing that both systems will probably lose but I wanted to see which one loss less.
The FOR test resulted in a High of 11, Low of -229 and ended with -184.
The AGAINST resulted in a High of 39, Low 0f -159 and ended with -142.
Still not proof positive but a good indication.
Currently we are testing individual AGAINST sessions with Bet Voyager and with progression. We have complete 43 sessions and have won 42.
Again, not proof positive but a stronger indication. Testing continues.
Cheers
Nick
Quote from: Nickmsi on August 11, 2018, 07:43:05 PM
They showed the bias when applying Fractions to the 3 spin/hand sets as follows:
OOO NB NB NB
OOX NB NB NB Fractions
OXO NB L NB L 0
OXX NB L NB L 0
XOO NB W NB W 1
XOX NB L NB L 0
XXO NB W L WL .5
XXX NB W W WW 1
2.5/6
If you can understand it then � You�re a better man than I am, Gunga Din!� But what I do understand is how to test systems.
Exactly.
It makes no sense to me either.
I will make a suggestion, testing to a degree is a waste of time, something is positive after 10,000 or 1M spins, what about those chunks in your results that inflict massive draw-downs or wipe the player out. Might work gambling online with a bot. Maybe change your focus to controlling the LIAR's and aiming for a 45~50% strike rate in the short term, than all you would have to do is wrap a mild negative progression around whatever it is, much more realistic
When you have some spare time
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/CoinTossing.html
(doesn't work for Baccarat BTW)
[quote author=Lugi link=topic=9954.msg64468#msg64468 date=1534111629
aiming for a 45~50% strike rate in the short term, than all you would have to do is wrap a mild negative progression around whatever it is, much more realistic
[/quote]
100% agreed!
(This what I trying to say for so long, but my poor english...sigh)
Hi Lugi
That is exactly what we are doing. Playing on line with a bot in small sessions with a negative progression.
With the Triplets as the bet selection we have won 62 out of 63 sessions.
Cheers
Nick
Quote from: Nickmsi on August 13, 2018, 03:18:25 AM
Hi Lugi
That is exactly what we are doing. Playing on line with a bot in small sessions with a negative progression.
With the Triplets as the bet selection we have won 62 out of 63 sessions.
Cheers
Nick
Well done, with your coding prowess you deserve it.
Quote from: Nickmsi on August 13, 2018, 03:18:25 AM
Hi Lugi
That is exactly what we are doing. Playing on line with a bot in small sessions with a negative progression.
With the Triplets as the bet selection we have won 62 out of 63 sessions.
Cheers
Nick
Hi Nick,
What progression are you using with your triplet bet selection and bankroll required.
Thanks
Hello jsintl
The progression we are using is as follows:
Flat bet for first 100 spins
If in profit after 100 spins, keep flat betting. Always flat bet when in profit.
After 100 spins if the total Losses greater than the total wins, increase bet +1 unit.
Keep bet the same for next 11 spins, then if in profit flat bet, else raise bet + 1 unit
Recheck for new bet every 11 spins.
We are currently winning 97/100 sessions.
The largest bet so far is 29 units.
The biggest drawdown so far is -304.
Total spins played = 68,117
Total Profit = 1,507 units
Average Profit/Session=15 units
Profit/spin=.022
Hope this helps.
Cheers
Nick
Great results.
On this example, the edge is 2.2%
Using the wheel with the La Partage principle, we are able to generate a positive edge.
I still have a question, whether reducing the length of the first cycle when we play a flat rate of 50 or even 25 spins, the edge would be larger?
Because we are moving faster to recovery mode, drawdown can be bigger, but it can also be edge enlarged.
What kind of stop loss would you recommend?
Hi Ozon,
With the flat betting for the 1st 100 spins we had a large bet of 33 and a drawdown of -226.
With the flat betting for 1st 50 spins we had a large bet of 55 and a drawdown of -695. Total profit was only 100 units more based on 100,000 spins.
With flat betting for 1st 25 spins, we had a large bet of 58 and a drawdown of -802.
We just did not think the extra profit worth the larger bets and larger bankroll but each to his own.
With flat betting for 1st 100 spins we anticipate a bankroll of 400 units.
Cheers
Nick
Thanks a lot.
It saved a lot of time for testing.
I have one more question
Do you think that this progression is able to survive, with such a small drawdown, on the wheel with zero and normal house edge - 2.7%?
Hi Ozon,
I tested the Triplets with progression on 10,000 Single Zero spins and on 10,000 No Zero Spins, results per attached.
While both made a profit, the Single Zero was erratic and below profit for 3,000 spins or so.
Perhaps a different progression might help.
Cheers\\Nick
Hello Ozon - Holloway made a progression for bets that have higher strike ratio than 50% for even money bets.
Cheers
Hello Nickmsi - I will put together one explanation about this selection based upon my opinion and understanding.
What you do is to play against patterns not repeat and the probability or the odds increase for each losing group.
For example, you have Red and play Black twice, the triplet and continue doing so on a rolling basis.
So each random march will end with a losing sequence and that combination is the principal of 1/3 because you bet against triplets.
So when you look at two loses you have one series of three and if you lose again you have another series of three and if you lose again you have a series of three.
They can come in any combination, and the march is to bet twice against triplets.
When you look at the sequence with the vertical perspective you see three patterns of the same formation repeating three times in a row.
And when you look at the sequence with the horizontal perspective you see the triplet that made you lose.
RRB
RRB
RRB
RBR
RBR
RBR
RBB
RBB
RBB
RRR
RRR
RRR
BRB
BRB
BRB
BBR
BBR
BBR
BRR
BRR
BRR
BBB
BBB
BBB
Now two patterns XOO XOX create a direct win and one pattern is a tie OOX and one losing pattern, the triplet XXX
If you continue betting after six loses the probability and the odds increase to 1 in 16 where you get groups of four or patterns with four in a row repeating three times in a row.
RBBR
RBBR
RBBR
And so it continues to grow with equilibrium and probability and odds for each new triplet.
I would say that you should stop after six losses and wait for a fictive win and start over.
The odds and probability is very small to get three repeaters back to back.
Here is also the possibility to experiment with triggers.
Cheers
Hi Sputnik
I have this progression
Probably even slight modifications made by Bayes.
It has 46 steps.
I've never really simulated it.
I wonder if he is able to bring profit even after losing these 46 steps, sometimes.
Hi Patrik and Ozon,
Thanks for your insights Patrik and Ozon if you have the 46 Step Holloway progression could you post it here or send it to my
email nickmsi@aol.com.
I am finishing up my vacation with the grandsons and would love to test it with the Triplets. I am sure I have it at home but it would save me some time.
Cheers
Nick
Sputnik,
Wait for the extreme variance to pass, as your idea, that...wait for 6losses, then a fictive win, and start bet...
Here is Holloway's progression, raise, and fall ...
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
14
16
18
20
22
25
28
30
32
35
40
45
50
55
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
135
150
Thanks Patrick, that is just what I needed.
Cheers
Nick
Quote from: Nickmsi on August 16, 2018, 11:45:10 AM
Hello jsintl
The progression we are using is as follows:
Flat bet for first 100 spins
If in profit after 100 spins, keep flat betting. Always flat bet when in profit.
After 100 spins if the total Losses greater than the total wins, increase bet +1 unit.
Keep bet the same for next 11 spins, then if in profit flat bet, else raise bet + 1 unit
Recheck for new bet every 11 spins.
We are currently winning 97/100 sessions.
The largest bet so far is 29 units.
The biggest drawdown so far is -304.
Total spins played = 68,117
Total Profit = 1,507 units
Average Profit/Session=15 units
Profit/spin=.022
Hope this helps.
Cheers
Nick
Isn't it only a matter of luck that you are in a net profit still? Your progression is slow but is it enough to ward off big losses? Will it not end with a huge loss taking away whatever you have won so far as any other progression does?
Quote from: Albalaha on August 25, 2018, 03:07:00 AM
Isn't it only a matter of luck that you are in a net profit still? Your progression is slow but is it enough to ward off big losses? Will it not end with a huge loss taking away whatever you have won so far as any other progression does?
And what you just said,
"Will it not end with a huge loss taking away whatever you have won so far as any other progression does?", is basically what happens almost every single time, everywhere I ever play. Even with the better skilled players.
There are very easy defense tactics for the player, but most if not all, will believe way too much in themselves and be governed only by their own misconception of the game.
Hello Sumit, good to hear from you.
And yes, both you and Glen are correct.
It is a negative progression that we first started with and that will fail in long run but what we want to see if what defenses were necessary, ie, what stop loss would be the worse, what was the maximum bets, could a Trailing Profit Stop be employed, etc.
Now we are testing a positive progression as this system wins more than loses and we are still seeing how the defense is doing.
Cheers,
Nick
Quote from: alrelax on August 25, 2018, 02:52:52 PM
And what you just said, "Will it not end with a huge loss taking away whatever you have won so far as any other progression does?", is basically what happens almost every single time, everywhere I ever play. Even with the better skilled players.
There are very easy defense tactics for the player, but most if not all, will believe way too much in themselves and be governed only by their own misconception of the game.
It happens with everybody because everybody uses same erroneous approach of increasing bets without any safeguard. The worst moments wait for the highest bets to get you the inevitable total loss. An empty belief that I won't get that worst moment will keep killing those stereotype progressions.
Sadly, the topic headline doesn't match with what we are discussing herein. We aren't using any kind of maths/stats to improve from where we started. Unless a progression can successfully pass through the virtually possible worst patches without killing itself, it is not playable, in my humble opinion.
Quote from: Nickmsi on July 17, 2018, 01:12:23 AMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDw2Pu0-H4g
This video very quickly confirms the advantage of the bet selection
OLD. If we equate the finding to Baccarat, TH (in essence a chop) is will occur twice as frequent as any double HH, which of course s confirmed by the Zumma stats (50% of all hands are chops v's 25% of all hands being a single repeater).
Just like to add, any and all losing patterns can be defined, we as system players can pick and choose our nemesis pattern, hence we should avoid those methods that fail against the most common occurring patterns, which is why I thought VDW was not a practical option to take to the gaming tables.
Apologies if my response is dated.
Nick, I send you a personal message!
Cheers
A lot has been posted by Alrelax and Gizmotron about how they win using their years of experience, knowledge of the game, situational awareness etc.
Others like Xander and Mike have posted that you need an edge.
I am not here to debate the merits of Alrelax and Gizmotron's methods, but I would like to explore Xander's and Mikes position of having an EDGE.
What is an EDGE? Can you actually get an EDGE? To me an EDGE would be something mathematical, statistical or physical that would turn the odds or probability in your favor.
The above is a quote from the OP. Yes, you are absolutely correct about wins and losses. You can never be on all sides with an Edge. It is impossible, so--IMO, why attempt to do that. However, trying it leaves room to improve your knowledge of reality the game produces. Problem is, most of us are not in reality and refuse to see it.
It is also like someone saying, that restaurant specializes in seafood and is well known for having the best seafood in town. There is no way they could have a great Asian dish, it is impossible. But, maybe they really do? Maybe their sole Asian dish is horrible. Maybe is great on the days a certain chef is working and off on the other days when that chef is not present?
Same in baccarat. But there is no edge that can give you consistent wins on anything that will redundantly appear.
People attempt to convert computer statistics to live gaming and those statistics were not derived from the amount of hands that you will be playing in front of.
The real edges come from other avenues within the game of baccarat. I don't know about the game of roulette, perhaps so or not? But in baccarat the edges are not definable by mathematical numbers. Disclosure: IMO.
But there are edges.
pretty cool!
A really good thread started by Nickmsi. Great addendum thoughts by several learned players. I encourage all to read and or review again.
Continued Success To All,