Author Topic: Why bac could be beatable itlr  (Read 92684 times)

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Offline klw

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #480 on: November 24, 2021, 11:08:29 am »
AsymBacGuy -- Really interesting thread and I appreciate all the information and time taken to pass this all on to us.

Cheers.

Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #481 on: November 25, 2021, 12:07:53 am »
Thanks klw! I appreciate your words and the time you spend here reading my section!

Imo at baccarat there's no such a thing as quitting when ahead or behind, setting up a goal (in either W or L way) or stuff like that.
Our plan must get an edge in the long term by assessing the game features both in theory and, more importantly, in practice.

I can't give a lesser damn whether we're (temporarily) behind after playing 3 or 4 shoes, such thing happens, albeit rarely (it doesn't happen to those forums' geniuses claiming that they win multiple units at every shoe dealt).

Each W/L pattern will come out with the same probability, so we should focus our attention about their distribution shoe per shoe. Not every shoe is featuring exploitable situations, as everything depends about how symmetrically or asymmetrically are placed the cards at every shoe dealt.
It's true that many results come from 'whimsical' spots, but those will show up with the same profitable or unprofitable probability: after all what it's math advantaged remains advantaged.

Best example to make is by assessing the 1-2 (or 2-1) and 1-3 (or 3-1) BP flows coming out at a given shoe (unb plan #1).
There are strong reasons why we had discarded 2-3 spots from our play as they act accordingly to the statistical tools already touched here.
 
Most of the times such situations tend to come out clustered in a way or another and this is not mainly caused by the 0.75 probability to happen.
Not given precise values are going to get a steady advantage (unless our progression is utilized) as this edge depends about how symmetrically or asymmetrically are placed the cards on the actual shoe we're playing at.
In addition and even though we have assigned them the same 3+ value for simplicity, not all 3+ streaks are equal either in quantity and in quality.

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #482 on: November 26, 2021, 12:57:47 am »
Look at this shoe (1=singles, 2=doubles and 3=3+ streaks)

br: 2,1,1,2,1,1,3,3,1,2,3,1,3,3,2,3,2,3,2,2,2,1,1,3,1,2,2,2,2,2,3,1,1,3,2,1,1

ubp #1: W,W,W,W,L,W,W,L,L,W,W,L,W,L,W,L,W,W,W,W,L,L,W.  w=15, (+15) AND L=8 (-24)

byb: 1,3,1,1,1,1,3,3,1,3,3,1,2,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,1,1,3,1,1,1,1,3,3,3,1,1,2,1,1,2

ubp #1: w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,l,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,l,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,l,w,w,w.

w= 35 (+35) l= 3 (-9)

sr: 3,1,2,1,2,1,2,1,2,1,2,2,1,1,1,1,2,2,3,1,3,1,2,3,1,1,2,3,3,3,2,3

ubp #1: l,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,l,w,w,l,l,w,l,l.   w=18 (+18) l= 6 (-18)

cr: 3,3,1,1,2,1,3,1,3,1,3,2,3,1,1,1,1,2,1,1,3,3,1,2,1,2,1,3,3,3,2,3,1

ubp #1: w,l,w,l,w,w,w,w,l,w,w,w,l,w,w,l,w,w,l,w,w,w,l,w,w,w,l.  w=19 (+19)  l=8 (-24)

Say we are a team formed by 4 persons (each betting ubp#1 at one of the four roads).
For simplicity we ignore the vig.

At the end of the shoe:

br player loses 9 units = -9

byb player wins 26 units = +26

sr player breaks even = 0

cr player loses 5 units = -5

In total our team won 26-14 units, that is a +12 profit (before vig).

There are one million of post hoc considerations to be made, say we're just focusing about the W isolated spots (IS) and W clusters (CL).

br:  CL, CL, CL, IS, IS, CL

byb: CL, CL, CL, CL

sr: CL, CL, IS

cr: IS, IS, CL, CL, CL, CL, CL, CL.

In total 16 W Clusters and 5 Isolated Ws.

Now the reverse situation about losses, that is the number of L isolated spots and L clusters.

br: IS, CL, IS, IS, IS, CL

byb: IS, IS, IS

sr: IS, IS, CL, CL

cr: IS, IS, IS, IS, IS, IS, IS.

In total 16 Isolated L spots and 4 L clusters.

If our team would like to bet toward W clusters and L isolated spots we'll get 16+16 winning spots (+32) and (5+4) losing spots (-27). That is a +5 unit profit (minus vig)

Notice that the original 'full betting' plan produced two losing players (br and cr players), one breaking even (sr player) and one strong winner (byb player).

The clustered/isolated sub plan formed br player losing 4 units, byb player winning 7 units, sr player losing 5 units and cr player winning 7 units. That is a cumulative +5 unit profit.

Globally the player who contributed most to our team was byb player, cr player won slightly, sr lost 5 units and br got a tremendous -13 unit loss.

Let's take another shoe.

br: 1,3,2,3,1,1,2,1,3,1,1,3,2,1,1,1,1,1,3,2,1,2,1,2,1,3,1,1,1,3,1,3

ubp#1: L,W,L,W,L,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,W,W,W   W=19 (+19)  L=7 (-21)

byb: 1,3,1,1,1,1,3,1,3,3,2,1,1,1,1,1,2,3,1,3,1,1,3,3,2,2,1,2,3

ubp#1: w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,l,w,w,w,w,w,l,w,w,w,w,w,l,w,l.   w=19  (+19)  l=4 (-12) 

sr: 2,2,3,2,1,3,1,1,2,1,3,3,1,3,3,3,1,3,1,1,1,1,1,2,1,3.

ubp#1: l,w,w,l,w,l,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,w,l,w,l  w=15 (+15)  l=4 (-12)

cr: 1,1,3,1,1,1,1,3,2,3,3,1,2,2,1,3,3,2,3,3,2,1,2,2,1,1,1

ubp#1: w,w,w,w,w,l,l,w,w,l,w,l,w,w,w,w,w.   w=13  (+13)  l=4 (4 (-12)

So let's see if our team survived this shoe and who contributed most to save the joint:

br player kept losing (we should discard him/her from the team as being too unlucky  ^-^) : -2 units

byb player won 7 units (+7)

sr player won 3 units (+3)

cr player won 1 unit (+1)

Overall our team won 9 units (before vig).

Let's see again the sub IS/CL plan, first in W then in L spots (reversely taken of course).

Wins:

br player: IS, IS, CL, CL, CL, CL

byb player: Cl, CL, CL, IS

sr player: CL, IS, CL, IS

cr player: CL, CL, IS, CL

Losses:

br player: IS, IS, IS, IS, CL, IS

byb player: IS, IS, IS

sr player: IS, IS, IS, IS

cr player: CL, IS, IS

Globally we got 26 wins (12+14) and 8 losses (6+2) that is a +26 - 24 = +2 unit profit (before vig)

In this second shoe original plan made three winners and just one loser whereas the sub plan made two breaking even players, one winning 3 units and one losing 1 unit.

Some comments.

It's evident that in those two shoes the first (original) plan got us more gross profits than the sub plan (+21 vs +7).
Quite interesting is the fact that sub plan got 1/3 of the original plan profits.

Anyway we shouldn't forget the vig burden, especially if we have to play a kind of mini progression.

Moreover variance is always around the corner and it's not that easy to set up a plan like this.
I mean that many situations might easily dictate to bet opposite sides to get a given searched result and the trick, already investigated, to wait for multiple roads to converge toward an expected spot has shown to be of no value.
Naturally 'conflicting' bettable sides are less likely to happen when adopting the sub plan proposed here.

Another possible trick that may come to mind is to select the player seemingly performing best, abandoning (at least for some betting spots) the losing or 'limping' players.
But this is an equivalent move as adopting a simple trend following strategy: we do not know when to enter and when to quit, maybe jumping from one player to another without a statistical reason to do that.

Finally, yes, some shoes are unplayable as they do not give the proper room to get a fair amount of pattern situations. Among the worst shoes to play our strategies at there are those producing a lot of ties, so when we suspect the actual shoe will be 'tie' rich we'll simply stand up or starting to bet them.  ^-^

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Offline klw

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #483 on: November 27, 2021, 01:10:31 am »
Wow !

 Great Post AsymBacGuy.

Enough homework for a long time.

Cheers.

Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Reply #484 on: November 27, 2021, 08:57:17 am »
Thanks klw!!!
Yes...a lot of stuff.....

Take care!

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)