Author Topic: Why Do Casinos Have An Approx 14% Win Percentage At Bac  (Read 941 times)

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Offline KungFuBac

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Why Do Casinos Have An Approx 14% Win Percentage At Bac
« on: October 19, 2021, 05:36:23 am »
Why Do Casinos Have An Approx 14.4% Win Percentage At Bac With a 1.2% H.E.  ???

Q: Is it due to players busting out often and multiple buyins per session?
    Is it due to players giving back winnings?
    Is it due to players constantly having to REwin previously won monies?
    Is it due to players setting predetermined and unrealistic win goals? Loss limits?
    Is it simply due to the high volatility of Bac?
    Other?


As we will recall the casinos win % is simply (Revenue / Handle = Win%).
So for example if Casino XYZ showed a monthly Baccarat tables Revenue of $870,000 /Handle of $5,850,000 then
Win % =14.87%.

I was recently viewing reports, studies, and papers at the  UNLV Center for Gaming Research site. A great site from the University of Nevada Las Vegas. I encourage you to check it out if you haven't already.

Several studies showed the results for Bac by months/years for individual casinos. Some studies even go back a decade or more.
What was interesting is that casinos' Bac  win% didn't really change much on average as most months seem to range from approx 10%  up to approx 18% for the whole month. Im sure much volatility if viewed by day or week.

Some casinos actually show a loss at their Bac tables for the whole month. One study showed that a casinos' bac tables netted a loss for 12 out of 78 months(15%). However, in 25 out of 78 months (32% of the time) the casino netted a win% of greater than (20%). Which was significantly higher than the aforementioned average of 14.4% win percentage.

One casino took a beatdown from the players for a whole month and showed a (-75% loss). Yes, u read that correctly. So casinos must deal with volatility too. It would be interesting to know if this (-75%) loss for one month was due to one large bettor zinging them from  one monstrous streak( I doubt it as most cas have low Tmax or typically <=$10K). I would guess it was likely due to 4-5 players at the same  table wagering a similar method and catching 2-3 high-variance shoes back to back, then leaving after their cash extraction. Thus not giving the cas  a chance to win it back.

Any thoughts or opinions?


Continued Success To All,



"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

Offline alrelax

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Re: Why Do Casinos Have An Approx 14% Win Percentage At Bac
« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2021, 07:42:13 am »
I would have to say mostly because of unrealistic win goals and giving back winnings and the consistent chase of spending their own money to win back what they gave back.
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played well over 34,200 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
 
EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

Offline KungFuBac

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Re: Why Do Casinos Have An Approx 14% Win Percentage At Bac
« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2021, 05:23:58 am »
alrelax:
 "...I would have to say mostly because of unrealistic win goals and giving back winnings and the consistent chase of spending their own money to win back what they gave back..."
[/b]
     
     I agree alrelax/ especially the part  (win back what they gave back) as  it is bad enough to chase ones losses that occur at the front end, however, its even worse when one chases to get a win back.

Re: the question: Why Do Casinos Have An Approx 14.4% Win Percentage At Bac With a 1.2% H.E
     I would also guess that part of that higher than expected win % is due to the higher H.E. on the side bets(bonus wagers), although I would also guess the bonus wagers are only a fraction of the overall bet handle. So in all likelihood not the main contributor to the casinos' high win percentage. I have not seen any data on what % of overall wagers are bonus wagers.


Continued Success,

"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why Do Casinos Have An Approx 14% Win Percentage At Bac
« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2021, 03:01:05 am »
Good question.

Imo, the main reason why casinos take a lot of money from baccarat tables is because players want to win or to break even at every session played, most of the times by risking a small bankroll (compared to house's bankroll) in order to get multiple wins.
 
No one $10 bettor will be glad to quit the table after getting a $10 or $20 win, whereas a $5000 bettor might be happy to abandon the table after a $5000 or $10.000 win (it's the same WL amount).
 
Most of the times side bets are accelerating the players' losing process but not everytime.

If sh.i.t tends to come out clustered, the same way heaven may come out clustered. And it takes a long time for casinos to recover from 'heaven' clustered scenarios. 

Nobody sane of mind is going to bet the tie if no tie happened so far in the actual shoe, but clustered ties in the past could elicit a strong 'tie' action from an observant player.

Mahematically betting ties after zero ties or many ties occurred it's the same thing, let math experts think so.

Dragon F-7 and Panda bets follow the same line of thought. 
Sooner or later a shoe will present 3-4 or more F-7 or Panda situations, we do not know when but they will happen.
It's not a coincidence that all HS rooms won't offer F-7 and Panda bets, just ties and pairs.

Not giving a damn about the average math edge, casinos fear 40:1 and 25:1 payments as they tend to get players to quit the tables as winners or light losers at worst.

Casinos that have to face serious money want players to guess every BP hand or most hands dealt, not giving them the possibility that a bunch of profitable (albeit unlikely) situations will erase (or invert) the normal players' losing process.

Pretend to take the casinos' part: are you willing to face $2000 bets on F-7 side bet risking a possible $80.000 loss (erasing at once, let's say, 16 $5000 losing bets) despite of getting a wonderful profitable 7.61% edge?

The answer should be 'NO' and that's why HS rooms won't offer such side bets at their tables.

If they change opinion, let us know.

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Offline alrelax

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Re: Why Do Casinos Have An Approx 14% Win Percentage At Bac
« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2021, 03:07:20 pm »
Asym,

There are numerous casinos here that allow up to $1,000.00 on side bets, that is One Thousand Dollars on Panda or Fortune 7s.  I saw a guy a wile back hit a $800 f7 and he seldom wagers side bets, $32k won.  And table max on B or P is 5k at the particular casino.

Another large chain here with $10k max table allows $125.00 on their side bets, which are the p8, f7, or the 7s or the 9s which can pay 50 to 1 or 75 to 1 and an astronomical 200 to 1.  So yes high paying side bets do exist at plenty of casinos here.
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played well over 34,200 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
 
EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why Do Casinos Have An Approx 14% Win Percentage At Bac
« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2021, 09:09:16 pm »
Thanks Al...do you know how many cards are removed from the play?

The chain you are referring to is Ameristar by chance?

as.
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Offline alrelax

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Re: Why Do Casinos Have An Approx 14% Win Percentage At Bac
« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2021, 10:43:01 pm »
Yes and others in the Midwest.
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played well over 34,200 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
 
EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why Do Casinos Have An Approx 14% Win Percentage At Bac
« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2021, 01:52:13 am »
Al, have you ever encountered interesting players in Midwest?
Do you have some stories to tell about them?

as. 
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)

Offline alrelax

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Re: Why Do Casinos Have An Approx 14% Win Percentage At Bac
« Reply #8 on: November 24, 2021, 03:37:56 am »
Al, have you ever encountered interesting players in Midwest?
Do you have some stories to tell about them?

as.

There sure are, lots of regular players with distinct and amusing personalities.  Let me outline a bunch of them the next few days. 
My Blog within BetSelection Board: https://betselection.cc/alrelax's-blog/

Played well over 34,200 shoes of baccarat since I started playing at B&M USA casinos.

"Don't say it's a winning hand until you are getting paid for it".

Played numerous properties in Las Vegas, Reno, Southern California, Atlantic City, Connecticut, South Florida, The South/Southeast as well as most areas of The Midwest.

Baccarat, actually a mixture of Watergate, attacking the Gotti Family and the famous ear biting Tyson fight leading to disqualification and a near riot.  Bac has all that more.
 
EMAIL: Betselectionboard@Gmail.Com

Offline KungFuBac

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Re: Why Do Casinos Have An Approx 14% Win Percentage At Bac
« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2021, 07:06:30 am »

alrelax: "...There are numerous casinos here that allow up to $1,000.00 on side bets, that is One Thousand Dollars on Panda or Fortune 7s.  I saw a guy a wile back hit a $800 f7 and he seldom wagers side bets, $32k won.  And table max on B or P is 5k at the particular casino.

Another large chain here with $10k max table allows $125.00 on their side bets, which are the p8, f7, or the 7s or the 9s which can pay 50 to 1 or 75 to 1 and an astronomical 200 to 1.  ..."



    that's good as most of my casinos in Midwest only allow the bonus bets max payout(not bet size),  to equal up to Tmax(even if Tmax is only $2K).


Continued Success,

"There are many large numbers smaller than one."

Offline AsymBacGuy

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Re: Why Do Casinos Have An Approx 14% Win Percentage At Bac
« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2021, 09:35:59 pm »

that's good as most of my casinos in Midwest only allow the bonus bets max payout(not bet size),  to equal up to Tmax(even if Tmax is only $2K).


The same happens in Vegas with some rare exceptions.

as. 
 
Next to edge sorting it's me

Winners don't do different things, they do things differently (Albalaha)