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Understanding Random Outcomes

Started by spike, November 28, 2012, 11:34:01 PM

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spike

The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Lack of undersating of how random outcomes work is
the downfall of most systems.

Look at the casino. They understand random completely.
They know that it gives them their edge in roulette. They
start with the premise that the best you can do is 50/50,
throw in some unfair pay outs, a zero or two, and they
have their edge.

Set out first and foremost to understand how random works,
then come up a playable strategy. Don't make statements
like 'R/B is weaker than O/E or H/L.' Silliness like that just
shows you've never studied random. Learn it, grasp it, then
you're at square one. Anything else is just putting the cart
before the horse.   :no:

KingsRoulette

Can you mention one method (of yours or of anybody else) that fits all these teachings? ???
Nothing can perfectly beat a random session but luck. If someone claims perfection in every session, he is either a fool himself or think all to be fools.

MarignyGrilleau

Quote from: spike on November 28, 2012, 11:34:01 PM
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Lack of undersating of how random outcomes work is
the downfall of most systems.

Look at the casino. They understand random completely.
They know that it gives them their edge in roulette. They
start with the premise that the best you can do is 50/50,
throw in some unfair pay outs, a zero or two, and they
have their edge.

Set out first and foremost to understand how random works,
then come up a playable strategy. Don't make statements
like 'R/B is weaker than O/E or H/L.' Silliness like that just
shows you've never studied random. Learn it, grasp it, then
you're at square one. Anything else is just putting the cart
before the horse.   :no:


I completely agree with the above statement.  :thumbsup:
Maybe we will get somewhere here.
There is nothing that ensures that neighbors from last spun pocket are more likely to hit than the exact opposite pockets or any other location.
So no argument about wheel distribution will be fair. Like Red and Even are perfectly alternated on the wheel and Odd and Even are not---
:stress:
Same difference for wheel and table play.

Bally6354

Why not say then that you don't need to write any previous spins and the bet you were about to make on table A in Las Vegas could just as easily be placed on Table B at the Ritz in London. It has the same probability to appear wherever you place the bet. So what is the point in measuring anything?
Sometimes it is the people who no one imagines anything of who do the things that no one can imagine.

Bally6354

I suppose what I am saying is that you could play your own permanence at anytime and the wheel you are playing on makes no difference. I could go along with that.
Sometimes it is the people who no one imagines anything of who do the things that no one can imagine.

MarignyGrilleau

that is true. I could not have said it better. Still you might speculate on something about your permanence.  :thumbsup:

MarignyGrilleau

Quote from: Bally6354 on November 29, 2012, 11:30:46 AM
Why not say then that you don't need to write any previous spins and the bet you were about to make on table A in Las Vegas could just as easily be placed on Table B at the Ritz in London. It has the same probability to appear wherever you place the bet. So what is the point in measuring anything?
It is true to say that it has the same raw probability but i still measure my personal permanence.

spike

Quote from: Bally6354 on November 29, 2012, 11:33:01 AM
I suppose what I am saying is that you could play your own permanence at anytime and the wheel you are playing on makes no difference. I could go along with that.

I don't know what 'your own permanence' means.

VLS

Quote from: spike on November 30, 2012, 02:47:02 AM
I don't know what 'your own permanence' means.
...It means the exact set of numbers you lay bets on builds a numerical set of its own.

You may witness 40 spins in an hour.

But if you only laid chips on 4 spins, then 'your own permanence' (set of played spins) has those 4 bets only.

This "personal set" builds up regardless of places.

Here's a quote:

Quote
The great French scientist Henri Chateau expressed it as axiomatic:
Statistical laws are satisfied regardless of the samples which are considered, provided that the samples are random.

We have talked about this many times, but in other languages around the world nomenclatures can differ.
Email/Paypal: betselectiongmail.com
-- Victor

VLS

P.S. The generalized opinion is only real-money bets alone should be included ;)

First thing people think about is playing at home until propitious conditions, then rushing to the casino!
Email/Paypal: betselectiongmail.com
-- Victor

spike

True random is a beautiful thing. Not fake random that
runs slots or online casino roulette wheels. True random
can't be tricked or gotten around. It doesn't have weak
spots or strong spots, its always the same. Random.

Without understanding how random works you don't have
a chance of beating roulette. If you don't learn how to
think like random thinks, it will never let you tame it. Random
has limitations and it has rules. Its never the same and its
always the same. Almost sounds like a primitive definition
of the nature of god.

KingsRoulette

Without understanding how random works you don't have
a chance of beating roulette. If you don't learn how to
think like random thinks, it will never let you tame it.

  If you have understood randmoness properly why don't you tell your way of beating/taming it? Empty preachings do not impress.  :no:
Nothing can perfectly beat a random session but luck. If someone claims perfection in every session, he is either a fool himself or think all to be fools.

Blood Angel

Quote from: spike on December 01, 2012, 04:35:13 AM
Random
has limitations and it has rules.

Does it? I thought random was just that... Random?
Luck happens when Preparation meets Opportunity.

spike

Quote from: KingsRoulette on December 01, 2012, 08:06:48 AM
If you have understood randmoness properly why don't you tell your way of beating/taming it?

Sure. I track past spins and from my experience in
practice and knowlege of how random works, I make
an educated guess as to what comes next. Flat bet,
make my win goal and go home.

spike

Quote from: Blood Angel on December 01, 2012, 08:23:10 AM
Does it? I thought random was just that... Random?

Once you learn how to read random, it no
longer looks confusing. Everything looks
confusing to the layman's eye.