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[alrelax]

Coincidence Vs. "RRR"

PART 1:

Coincidence or is it Redundant & Repetitious & Reoccurring?

Yes, that is the $64 million dollar question as the old saying goes!

But it is a reality at the casino table, especially at baccarat. 

'RRR', or Redundant & Repetitious & Reoccurring.  Some will dismiss as sheer coincidence and others will dismiss as sheer luck.  Yet, others will say, right place, right time.

My Definitions:

Coincidence:  "An occasion when two or more things happen at the same time, esp. in a way that is unexpected or unlikely, or the unlikely fact of such things happening at the same time"; And

RRR:  "In reality, what is happening and what will present itself, no matter what, right then and there with an undetermined time limit placed on it or against it".

I truly believe after all my years of casino play, that it is not unlikely and unexpected for the results of typical and not so typical baccarat shoes.  The unlikely and the unexpected only gets inserted by the player because he missed or ignored the opportunity when the shoe began to produce the types of results that he classified as unlikely and unexpected, etc. 

Yet, maybe not.  Like the counter spike and the service bell on the business counter, you know the spike where the clerk sticks all the manual checks and the silver bell for the order.  Countless establishments went to the P.O.S. System of course, but still numerous establishments still have that older system.  Just a matter of preference and belief is all.  Does one make the food any better at a restaurant?  No.  Does a POS System make better service at a hotel, no.  Can a POS System improve the speed and accuracy of the order, possibly?  But that still depends on the people performing the tasks.  Can a person playing baccarat use a system that will benefit him?  Possibly, at times.  And at other times, no.  Something has to match that system and that player has no control over the thing that has to produce the items to match his system. 

A way of doing things is fine.  But that way of doing things cannot make the determination or the decision to alternate to another way, if the situation presents itself.  That is where the player must use judgement based upon something, rather than the system itself. 

For myself, there are expectations and then there is reality.  Two different worlds, problems with the player will usually escalate when expectations are relied upon in many situations and failed to be realized.  I try to merge them into one, sometimes it works and at times it will not.  That is when I have to make a decision on how to proceed.  For me, after so many years of gambling, I either win or I cannot.  There is no in between for myself. I recognize that.  I assume at times, that this is a good thing and at other times, it is not.  But like I tell most everyone, if I cannot win with whatever I buy in with, no matter what amounts I fund my additional re-buy ins, I will still continue to lose.  Out of 20 times, if I bought in additional, I might break even or win a bit for 2 or 3 times.  The other 17 or 18 times will far outweigh the money I won those 2 or 3 times.  You might be different; the point is recognizing how you play and what happens when you do play, etc. 

So what is coincidence to me?  Are the results physical and mechanical in nature, or were they casual? 

First of all, Double Talk about exploiting something as well as the weak spots in these types of games is unfair terminology used by the authors, IMO.  The highest majority of them will lead into some type of sale of gambling system, website membership or something else preying on the gullible that desire the luxurious lifestyle of the professional gambler that never losses. 

With that said the flip side is, anything is possible to occasionally happen.  What is occasionally?  Occasionally means, not impossible.  The same as it does in sports, music, television, industry, etc.  After all my years of playing, reading, researching and talking with others with decades of actual hands on experience as well.  I do believe in the narrowing down of possible events that could surface within a shoe of baccarat, to fit into an event.  But the positioning will not and cannot be the same with any sort of regularity whatsoever.  Maybe that is the key to being in the right spot at the right time?  If you just realize and look at on paper, how many possibilities there are that could present themselves within any shoe of baccarat, you might understand where I am going with this. 

[alrelax]

PART 2:

The key to wins, is reading the other side.

You have to be able to catch some of the, 'RRR', or Redundant & Repetitious & Reoccurring.

Get rid of the thoughts, 'it has to',' it should', 'it will' and all the other ones that you read about from the various authors of systems, website owners selling something, those preaching membership into their elite professional clubs and all that.  If their pot of gold, was really there for the picking, why are they all selling it, selling a manual or a system, selling a $51.00 membership a month to their secret elite club, etc, etc., and so on?  Answer.  Simply, because it is not correct in the sense of being infallible.  The smarter ones, or the slicker ones push it off as saying, their inside info and research will get you closer to a perfected way to beat the casino, or something to that effect anyways. 

The shoe becomes stacked with different ways it will present itself and then change within itself or the subsequent shoe upcoming.  It is the player's perception and his transformation of his losses---remaining neutral or his accumulation of wins, that will benefit or hurt himself.  He inflicts it all onto himself.

This is what the real player, the smart player, the serious player, the player that realizes anything mix along with everything might or might not present itself.  But when it does, he will most likely catch it and take advantage of it.  That to me and many others is an advantaged player.  Not the player that defines events and then continually wagers for them with scheduled and consistent wagering virtually every hand. 

In the beginning of the shoe?  In the middle of it?  Towards the end or at the end?  I don't know, you don't know, every single mathematician and statistician, does not know as well.  20 in a row, repeating and then the opposite side duplicates what that side just fantastically did?  Or perhaps a long series of alternating chops?  What causes it?  Will it repeat itself with the same parameters, which everyone just figured out, just pointed out?  After all, it was defined and other people just made a good deal of money for or against, whatever it is they are pointing out. 

Fallacy.  Now enter the casino's best friend and ammunition, fallacy.  The fallacy part comes into play when a person repeatedly attempts it, like a mechanical schedule he is applying.   It might work for a bit, but the player generally becomes redundant and repetitious without the shoe presentments reoccurring.  That is the problem is, the player becomes reoccurring and the shoe presents do not.

The shoe does not have to do anything except what it will after it is set.  And that is where almost all players, new to the game or experienced go wrong.  With possibilities to create the same, different, frequent and rare events in the hundreds of billions to quadrillions with each shoe, you might start to understand how a shoe cannot even come close to regularly with consistency repeating itself for any type of event, from shoe to shoe, from table to table, from casino to casino. 

[alrelax]

Yeah, the above is 5.5 years old.  But, it was brought to my attention last night how much it has helped someone found certain realities and what an illusive repetitive nature the game of bac is. 

Think what you like, think what you have experienced, think what the stats dictate if that's what you like, think a trigger will work 90% or greater of the time, it's all good......, but THINK-THINK AND THINK!

But I must add the following today:

There are three things people have to understand: A) You can get on, you can get off; B) You get value, you do not get value;  C) You get confidence or not. And no matter what you do in life, confidence is the number one, absolutely #1. Let's say one fellow bets 20:1 shots. After 19 losses he hits the 20th one, he comes back a winner, and he's level. Another fellow's betting evens out as well. After 10 winners and 10 losses wagering his win money each time, he's level also. They have both got the same money, but he's been right 10 times. Who's going to have more confidence?

But nobody talks about confidence, the mental instabilities involved in gambling. And that's what it is all about in my opinion. It's all about how you perform under pressure, with real money, at the table, and how you perform when it all goes wrong.

And believe me, it will go wrong.

[KungFuBac]

Good repost alrelax. I thought I had read this but didn't recall after reviewing. So, Im glad you brought it up again.

"..I truly believe after all my years of casino play, that it is not unlikely and unexpected for the results of typical and not so typical baccarat shoes.  The unlikely and the unexpected only gets inserted by the player because he missed or ignored the opportunity when the shoe began to produce the types of results that he classified as unlikely and unexpected, etc..."


"...For me, after so many years of gambling, I either win or I cannot.  There is no in between for myself. I recognize that.  I assume at times, that this is a good thing and at other times, it is not.  But like I tell most everyone, if I cannot win with whatever I buy in with, no matter what amounts I fund my additional re-buy ins, I will still continue to lose. ..."


IMO one of greatest attributes a skilled gamer(investor) can utilize is to only lose down to zero(0) once per really bad session. Yet do NOT limit the upside sessions(We shall see both equally). My preference is to play within a say 5%--10% Risk-Of-Ruin, or say an approx -3.0 SD. If I can't get in sync with the results, I simply accept my beat down. I have never (NEVER) rebought into a session where I busted my buyin. It's extremely difficult for me to bust a buyin in any one shoe simply because I don't wager very many bets in any one shoe. Plus, I mainly do a Pos Progression and if I'm not hitting I'm mostly wagering base-unit sized wagers.


 
Continued Success,