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Statistics & Variance and Making Money

Real contradictions from a post for people either not understanding or failing to understand the variance the person posting was faced with, will curve the straight ahead baseball that was coming directly at you---to a 180 degree turn.

Because some people work full-time, owns a business, plays only once in a while versus someone that plays full-time, just about every day—does not make either one better or smarter than the other for the simple fact as to their gambling exposure at a real live brick and mortar casino.   

If variance is presented at a table and myself and you are there—we each might interpret and approach that and the forthcoming presentment from the shoe in different ways.  However, it does not mean either of us know more than the other.  The problems seen to arise when the other follows or attempts to adopt what others do successfully when they are prevailing and the player in question, read into what he thought was a variance that failed to actually show up in his perspective and understanding of what variance is.

There is no guarantee in show presentment and anything can happen at any time, period.  The advantage a player has or can have over the casino is to capitalize on a certain section of the shoe—pounce on it—cash out and immediately reset and refresh, which the latter has to be absolutely paramount for the advantage to take place for the player.

I simply love the members on the various message boards that come on and post how they are so successful at playing baccarat in a casino and how they fund their living through a few hours of play every day, etc., and so on.  There was one player claiming to make right at $75.00 an hour with about 200 hours of play over about 9 months of time, always winning of course.  $15,000.00 lump sum, works out to around $ 1,666.00 a month.  I don't know about you or him, but I need somewhere around $3,500.00 to $5,500.00 every single month to pay my 'have to basics' without lump sums that I also have to put aside for other yearly or semi-yearly type of things.  But hey, whatever.  Let me do something here, 6 days at 3 hours a day, 18 hours for the week.  $1,350.00 using the figure a few players have claimed they are successful at, which was $75.00 an hour.  18 multiplied by 4 weeks which would work out to be $5,400.00 a month.  Not bad.  But hey—once again, 3 sold hours, every day, 6 days and 4 weeks a month.  Never losing.  Never giving anything back and losing a buy-in or bank roll, etc.  I know better, 100% better.  You can claim to have huge bankrolls and wager very little and able to absorb and digest hundreds and hundreds of units and still replenishes from the casino and still stroke on and still realize those wins every month.  Okay, let me clear my throat and clear my eyes from all the laughter and feelings that those posts actually do bring me.  The sad part is that people actually believe them and people have no idea whom those people are and what connection they have to why they actually posted those things.  A few names come to mind, but I will refrain from posting those names.

Thousands of hours—with a profit of $50-$100 an hour, hour after hour is one thing, but that will not and cannot happen, religiously and consistently.  Religiously and consistently I said, which means, week after week after week, month after month after month after month, year after year.  Period, I have no tolerance for those that post otherwise, for once they do just about everything else they post is going to lead to something called a book, a system, a link or a website with a monthly membership fee, etc.  Of course other sock puppets and even other 'real' people will provide references and vouching affidavits for them in some cases, all constructively put together in their 'house of cards'.  Kind of like a Dorice Donegan "Dee Dee" Moore and Abraham Shakespeare  (from Florida) type of lottery winner manipulation takeover of a multi-million dollar winner, as a crude comparison, but once their plots are looked in by someone with some kind of vision and outside justice, they are not awfully hard to tear apart.  Same with the gambling boards, links, books, and web-sites for fees. 

As far as luck, inconsistent play, small hits played, huge pounced on wagers that won, etc., etc., someone can do rather well if they actually can control their mind and realize variance or the opposites, always are possible to surface and come about at any time and stay for any length of time as well. 

The common 'misunderstanding' is the games statistics.  Interpreted or misunderstood by the highest majority the wrong way.  Forget the side wagers.  Let's talk about banker and player only.  Yes it is nearly a 50/50 game 'sometimes' and during that 'sometimes' it is a tad bit favorable for the banker over the player.  However, what almost all fail to realize---is the statistics are obtained from a huge amount of hands/shoes, like 500,000, 1,000,000 or 10,000,000, etc.  So when the shoe starts and there is something like a B-P-B-P-BB-PP-BB-PP-B, etc., on the score board, one group of players will believe Banker will be drawn next because of what has been happening and yet—others will believe Player because the current count is 7 Bankers and 6 Players and Players has the greater chance because of the 'equaling out' effect and phenomenon that has to happen at baccarat, etc., etc.   And, since it is not time for a self-correcting event because the score is not overly reflecting one side over the other, their decision is worth the wager because of 'so and so'. 

But, what most all fail to realize is that you are currently only playing a tiny section of a statistical outcome with no guarantee of the order of the actual presentments which will eventually be the variance as well, no matter what they turn out to be.  And, more importantly here is what most baccarat players fail to realize also.  The variance you just witnessed and happened to your instant shoe, will be taking into but changed into another set of variance results for the 20 shoes to be dealt during the next 40 hours at the very same table or the next 50 shoes to be dealt during the next 100 hours as well. 

So, what do you play for—the statistical or the variance?  Most will not admit it, but in reality they do.  And, IMO and experience, that is the largest contributing factor to their casino losses.  The largest downfall is the comparison which players will incorporate into their prediction of what is forthcoming. 

Does it work—yes.  Can it be profitable—yes.  Can it lose—yes.  Can it be wrong with consistency—yes.  Can it be correct with consistency and with longevity 100% of the time—no.  Can it be consistently 100% wrong with longevity—no.  And, that is why the casinos allow scoring, unlimited note taking, providing you with score cards, pens and even multi-thousand dollar score boards.  All to help you keep track and track what should come out.   

So it all boils down to the volatility and the variability of the cards that already appeared as well as the remainder of the cards in the shoe.  Nothing else.  Sorry, nothing hinges on what will happen with the remainder of that shoe in front of you that will be based on the previous shoes at the table or anywhere else, period.  Both of those, the volatility and the variability, will set the deviations and the statistics for that shoe—nothing else.  And, there is no way to accurately know what will happen with certainty unless you are able to calculate every single card remaining and know its order of pending disbursement from that shoe.  All of which will be unknown to you and remain unknown to you in the exact details, even down to the last few cards prior to the red 'end-of-shoe' card. 

However, there are numerous 'key triggers' as well as a better way to play, which can benefit a player if the player has the vision—experience—unclouded thought process—and rationale to identify what is happening and what might happen.  Some will say that luck and guessing would actually have to replace those four things I just mentioned. But, that is not true and I say, with almost four decades of actual brick and mortar casino baccarat play, it is possible, very very possible and doable. 

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I say, the statistics published and known by so many for baccarat are almost, to a certain point worthless at the table.  So the banker has a slight advantage because it made a tad nit more in 1,000,000 shoes or 80,000,000 hands.  So what?  It is not blackjack where an 'XYZ' amount of cards already appearing can and does change the outcome of the remaining hands yet to be dealt, to a certain percentage and statistical odds, etc.  But in baccarat the reality of what is left and the reality of what those 1,000,000 shoes produced by the 'Wizard of Odds' or someone sitting in India, means almost nothing for the 1 or 3 or 5 shoes you will play at the casino for real money in real life. 

Then others will say and it is published countless times on various forums, 'always bet the banker because the banker is favored to win'.  OMG, rubbish to the millionth power.  Go ahead and wager the banker, every hand, and shoe after shoe after shoe.  See what you have left after hundreds of shoes, thousands of shoes, etc. 

Here are some real life statistics that should be known if you want to approach baccarat from the realistic standpoint of the things I talk about, but you still have no way to know if the positive will pop up and reinforce the statistics when you are playing.  Making money, real and larger sums of money at baccarat is about being able to define and wager with the presentments and their logical, possible and forthcoming events from the shoe.  Not from historical or statistical odds published by people that proclaim themselves 'Wizards' and 'Heroes of Websites', etc. 

Here is a sampling of my rationale and what I believe applies more to baccarat than anything else:

20 same occurrences within 20 presentments:  1: 1,049,000
24 same occurrences within 24 presentments:  1: 16,780,000
  8 same occurrences within 8 presentment:   1: 256
  7 same occurrences within 7 presentments:  1: 128
  6 same occurrences within 6 presentments:  1: 64
  5 same occurrences within 5 presentments:  1:32
  4 same occurrences within 4 presentments:  1:16
  3 same occurrences within 3 presentments:  1: 8
  2 same occurrences within 2 presentments:  1: 4
  1 same occurrence  within 1 presentment:  1: 2

Of course, then it gets a little more complicated but still very realistic and the knowledge you can gain and use to rationalize out your wagering is huge:

(For sake of space, I will just throw up a few examples)

   6 same occurrences within 7 presentments:  1: 18.3  (not 183, 18(.)3 that is!

   3 same occurrences in 6 presentments:  1: 3.2  (think B-B-B followed by P-P-P)

There are tons of possibilities, know the percentages of stuff like what I am mentioning.  This will help you rationalize out what is possible and how possible it is.