The way I plan it, and execute it.
I have one rule. Bet on the best looking trend.
From that tactic alone comes the skill of guessing. You can't know in advance if it will work or not. But after the cards are down, the dice are rolled, or the spin stops in a slot you will have your answer.
I use rule 1 to get that answer. It's the answer, the result of the bet, that I'm interested in making my MM guesses from.
I need to know if what is happening is good for my bankroll or bad for my bankroll. My goal is to win a few more outcomes than I have lost, nothing more. So, if the first bet wins then that is good for my bankroll. If it losses then it means I will need a win for every loss until I'm back to even.
So the conditions of the game dictate the knowledge to be aware of, as it occurs. I want to win the session. If I feed a bad streak, where every bet is placed on the best looking trend to continue, and it ends, then I'm in a streak of ending trends. I don't want to feed that. And I won't feed that. Now this happens all the time in gambling. You must know how to live with your losses. It's not the only condition though.
You must also know how to live with your wins. They are just a passing phase too. Nothing more. You bet on the best looking trend and it works.
There is one thing to keep in mind if you are smart. When a streak of trends all end as you first try them, they all end and they are done. Hit a few endings on first tries back to back and you should pull back to a minimum table limit sized bet. Wait until the bad streak of results comes to and end.
Now for the good streaks. When they keep going it can be for 1 time in a row, 2 times in a row, 3 times in a row, etc... They win just once and it cancels any upcoming losing bet that is inevitable. So you take the chance that it will continue. You can't know in advance that it will work. But it will be part of the results trend that you are really following. I have found that the win streaks last longer than the losing streaks, based on rule 1 of betting on the best looking trend. If I get three net wins on my big bet level, I'm done. For me it is a mistake to try to kill off the casino with 20 black or red numbers in a row. Same goes for streaks in the other games too.
Knowing how to live with the results of guessing is as important as seeing the best looking trend. My charts make it easy to see the best looking trends. You don't chase your losses. You let them come back to you by waiting for the trends to start working. They work, they don't work. The point is in learning how to use them to your advantage. Think of all this as if the whole session is the tactic and not moment by moment reactions. Make movements and changes based on the big swings. There's the down swing followed by a flat swing or an up swing. They are all caused to occur because of rule 1.
From this you will find that a few best trends are gold mine opportunities. They get you to your goal real fast. The only question is can you play a game that depends on big deal trends in order to win your goal. Is your goal too high? Mine was. -- not now.
Thank you for your time, great input, sharing and experience. Defined, honest and available to those that are searching for advantages as well as disadvantages to gauge from. I will vouch for Mark and the content of the 100% realism and possibilities of what he just wrote.
Thanks, Glen.
Hey Giz;
On a bus shuttle from The Orleans to the Palms, in Las Vegas, I remember a gentleman, reminding me that when it comes to being successful in casino gambling, "The trend is your friend."
So simple. So profound. And now many years later I have the privilege of hearing you, restate the same principle.
Thanks for the positive, and informative reinforcement.
Garry
Trends are meaningless in a random game, and can only be identified after the event.
Quote from: Mike on June 07, 2018, 12:46:54 PM
Trends are meaningless in a random game, and can only be identified after the event.
Nice one Captain Obvious. And thanks for agreeing with me. Glad I could help.
I use trends specifically to identify information after the event. And yes, they are meaningless. It's just that some things are more meaningless than others, considering all things being equal that is.
Hi Mike;
"Trends are meaningless in a random game, and can only be identified after the event. "
Of course you are technically correct, but practically in a random game like Baccarat, what else to do we have but past results to make an intelligent, informed guess ?
Mike, I also believe it is totally true that you can not predict with mathematical certainty the next event of a random game. However it is also true that the random game creates a series of outcomes that do arrange themselves in patterns which may be useful in bet selection.
Perfect predictions --NO. Helpful indicators -- PERHAPS.
in reality we only have to increase our bet selection process ever so little to become profitable and if random patterns can be utilized then it makes sense to use them, wouldn't you agree ?
(Now if we could create a mathematical algorithm..)
Quote from: owenslv on June 08, 2018, 03:07:36 AM
Hi Mike;
"Trends are meaningless in a random game, and can only be identified after the event. "
But as I have written about, it has extremely helped me profit at the game of Baccarat with what has yet to happen, might happen, usually does happen quite often, happens and yes sometimes does not. But I have profited very well as I have shown the last couple of months in my writings on this board with exactly what you started your post off with. Thinking sideways, coming back into the game with complete open Vision will help you tremendously, I believe.
Why?? Because simply the game and the presentments does not stay idle, neutral and the same simply . All it takes is experience to realize what is probably going to happen. Thank you.
Quote from: owenslv on June 08, 2018, 03:07:36 AM
Hi Mike;
"Trends are meaningless in a random game, and can only be identified after the event. "
Of course you are technically correct, but practically in a random game like Baccarat, what else to do we have but past results to make an intelligent, informed guess ?
Past results aren't useless, but it depends how you use them. If you use past results to find out something about the distribution of outcomes for the purpose of creating some kind of probability/betting model, that's fine. But if your analysis of past results (ie, the model) shows that that past outcomes don't influence future outcomes, but then bet as if they DO, isn't that just foolish? You have ignored what the data has shown you in favour of a cognitive bias.
It reminds me of the so-called "streetlight effect" :
QuoteThe streetlight effect is a type of observational bias that occurs when people only search for something where it is easiest to look.
It is also called a drunkard's search, after the joke about a drunkard who is searching for something he has lost:
A policeman sees a drunk man searching for something under a streetlight and asks what the drunk has lost. He says he lost his keys and they both look under the streetlight together. After a few minutes the policeman asks if he is sure he lost them here, and the drunk replies, no, and that he lost them in the park. The policeman asks why he is searching here, and the drunk replies, "this is where the light is"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streetlight_effect
If you like following trends, by all means do it. It's no WORSE than any other way of choosing what to bet on next. Just don't kid yourself that it actually makes a difference. If you disagree, please show me the evidence that trends have any validity. :thumbsup:
Quote from: Mike on June 08, 2018, 08:23:59 AM
If you like following trends, by all means do it. It's no WORSE than any other way of choosing what to bet on next. Just don't kid yourself that it actually makes a difference. If you disagree, please show me the evidence that trends have any validity. :thumbsup:
OK Mike, I'll show you. I've been trying to show you guys for more than 12 years. If you want to see this in Blackjack, Baccarat, or Craps you won't see the amazing phenomenon but perhaps once every 2 months, and that's if you play for more than four hours every day. Now I have 12 sets of even chance, 18 - 20's, making up 6 groups as well as 12 sets of unique dozens making up 4 groups to find these occurrences from. So I see these amazing trends about every four or five days that I play. I see them because I know that they are the most valuable opportunity that randomness has to offer. I've seen them go on for more than four and one half hours one time. But they have a typical commonness to the average ones. To me they are a sign reading "time to rob the casino." To you they are a concept that you must denigrate out of the possibility of the exposure that you are just another common nitwit.
I see these things everywhere I go. I always capitalize on them when they happen. Can you guess what it is? Do you actually know what they act like? For a guy that hopes to find an edge because of a physical cause, you, of all people, should be an expert at these. I'm telling you that they are the biggest edge in gambling. But you see nothing. So I look at you and your clowning around with the what is real stuff in this world act and I'm always amused by your sinking ship alarm and the rearranging of the deck chairs. You are blind. I want you to see so you will shut your trap. But you like being a pest. It will just be too bad if you find out all this too late. Humor, that is what comes to mind when I think of you mathBoyz.
QuoteOK Mike, I'll show you. I've been trying to show you guys for more than 12 years.
OK, so where's the proof? We're still waiting. ::)
QuoteHumor, that is what comes to mind when I think of you mathBoyz.
Funny, that's what comes to our minds too when we think of the people that "literboyz" but that aren't "mathboyz" as well. Since you've taken the time to learn how to read, perhaps you could spend a little bit more time and learn some math as well? ::)
Quote from: Xander on June 09, 2018, 12:29:13 AM
OK, so where's the proof? We're still waiting. ::)
Funny, that's what comes to our minds too when we think of the people that "literboyz" but that aren't "mathboyz" as well. Since you've taken the time to learn how to read, perhaps you could spend a little bit more time and learn some math as well? ::)
Don't you soothsayers know that you can't beat Roulette with math? You have to use something else. I told you where the proof is. You don't want to find it? You don't want to see it. That is not my problem. It's right in front of you. I even drew a map. I discovered it and shared it with the world. All it did was make cow birthing experts out of you all. You guys used other people's formulas and algorithms to grandstand on the backs of dead people with absolutely totally dead ideas. If an original thought were to pass through your heads I doubt that it would make contact with any obstructions. Now lean on the favorite word "fallacy." It's like watching a monkey drool like Pavlov's dog. Time to rewrite the books.
Gizmo,
Again, where's the proof? Mike and I'd both like to see it.
Xander,
What did you do to get moderated? Gizmo indulges in personal attacks against us but isn't moderated. You're an expert on bias, what do you think? I think mathboyz like us aren't welcome in this forum.
Keeping the thread on topic, if there are any so called math oriented frequentist left around here there is one thing that should be addressed. The Global Effect occurs. It gives the aware player an almost or near perfect continuous win streak that tends to last from 30 minutes to several hours. Putting blinders on in order to pretend that they don't exist does not prevent them from occurring. So if you are so smart when it comes to probability and all that it would imply, go ahead and show us the math for explaining the Global Effect. Perhaps it already has another name? My guess is that it is an original idea. I'd like credit for that. 12 years is a very long time on these forums. I've known that the mathBoyz have been wrong all this time.
Now let's see some fallacy chanting. I want to see full blown protection of your fake opinions. Stop running and hiding. All I get is a best impression of Claude Rains, meets Tommy from the Pinball Wizard. You demand proof. Use that space between your ears. That is where the most convincing proof of all will occur.
Explain the Global Effect.
This should get funny.
Can you elucidate "Global Effect"? Can you illustrate the "occurrence of global effect" with an example of baccarat or roulette. I tried many search engines to know about "global effect", and I could not come with any answer. Perhaps this is a new Science that is being developed by you.
Quote from: james on June 10, 2018, 03:15:43 PM
Can you elucidate "Global Effect"? Can you illustrate the "occurrence of global effect" with an example of baccarat or roulette. I tried many search engines to know about "global effect", and I could not come with any answer. Perhaps this is a new Science that is being developed by you.
Well, it's sort of right underneath your nose:
https://betselection.cc/gizmotron/the-global-effect-what-is-it/
https://betselection.cc/gizmotron/proof-of-the-global-effect/
OMG, reading my old thread on the global effect I see that Xanadu is in fact Snowman from GG, and Dr Sir AA from another forum. He goes by several other names elsewhere too. Snowman is the destroyer of Gambler's Glen.
Cage that deplorable and keep him locked up. He has one obnoxious opinion that always runs and hides from real debate or contribution, no matter what forum he is on. He doesn't really want proof. He wants to Troll.
Quote from: Gizmotron on June 10, 2018, 04:58:16 PM
OMG, reading my old thread on the global effect I see that Xanadu is in fact Snowman from GG, and Dr Sir AA from another forum. He goes by several other names elsewhere too. Snowman is the destroyer of Gambler's Glen.
Cage that deplorable and keep him locked up. He has one obnoxious opinion that always runs and hides from real debate or contribution, no matter what forum he is on. He doesn't really want proof. He wants to Troll.
"In Xanadu did Kubla Khan
A stately pleasure-dome decree:
Where Alph, the sacred river, ran
Through caverns measureless to man
Down to a sunless sea."
Such is the beginning to a wonderful poem by Coleridge.
You probably meant Xander, the author of a sunless sea of often derogatory and divisive one-liners.
Interesting info you provided about his/her/its various noms de plumes.
Yes, the troll is caged and contained for now.
But should it show up under yet another false flag it will soon give itself away by its behaviour as you so accurately describe, and draw unto itself hot coals of consequence.
Rinse and repeat...rinse and repeat...
As Hank Williams puts it: "Life gets tee-jus don't it?"
Quote from: owenslv on June 08, 2018, 03:07:36 AM
Hi Mike;
"Trends are meaningless in a random game, and can only be identified after the event. "
Of course you are technically correct, but practically in a random game like Baccarat, what else to do we have but past results to make an intelligent, informed guess ?
If you take for example a set of combination tables covering 8 ~ 12 hand, you will see it is more likely a trend will not continue than continue. However what constitutes a trend is very subjective, I would also lie to add, to bet for the continuous of something, is exactly the same as betting for something not to happen.
Quote from: owenslv on June 08, 2018, 03:07:36 AM
Mike, I also believe it is totally true that you can not predict with mathematical certainty the next event of a random game. However it is also true that the random game creates a series of outcomes that do arrange themselves in patterns which may be useful in bet selection.
Perfect predictions --NO. Helpful indicators -- PERHAPS.
in reality we only have to increase our bet selection process ever so little to become profitable and if random patterns can be utilized then it makes sense to use them, wouldn't you agree ?
Not really, if it is not predicting with absolute certainty, then what is it achieving? 60/40, 55/45? that is not possible. Only on very rare occasions have I throw in speculation bets, for example wierd shoes where there has been a strange abundance of a streak length, so I might bet that say the 10th streak of 3won't stop at 3, generally I try not to, but occasionally get sucked in when I once such thing.
Quote (Now if we could create a mathematical algorithm..)
Seriously?
It already exists (honestly), it was posted on either the GG site or defunct Project Sydney forum by a fellow called Sam Redman. The SO method it was called, it captures every possible trend a shoe throws up, it takes 1 or 2 hands before it self-adjusts to capture whatever the trend is, then you win everyhand so long as the trend continues. Before you get overly excited, recap what I posted above, a trend is less likely to continue than continue.
Gentlemen, my 1cent,
In double dozens bet,
Bet last dozen and next dz to the right,
Eg,
Last =dz1, then bet dz1&2,
Last =dz2, bet dz2&3,
Last =dz 3, brt dz3&1, zero disregard, and unfortunate losses...
When you make a long history bet as a long 300spins, you will see long sequence of streaks,
The double hit will be as long as 20 to 30 hit continuos hit, or 30spin with only few losses in between,
We can't predict, but we can see after long streaks of dd hit, then , the other side will hit too, thus after 300 ispins, the flatbet result, mostly always within math HE EXPECTATION. ...Try it, you may like it...
That selection, dd, a quite stable bet in long run, because, it not static, 66% minus HE, and always jumping around, and mathboys can't dispute,
It always try to rtm, and with long variance occurance, which the chart line move southeast in a wave, thus 300 will result in 10+- losses, and 10000, 300+- losses flatbet...
We will see very long hits, an d long line of losses streaks, which I believe this what GIZTMOTRON found long ago...
The programmer savvy please do a few long testing chart, and we may see, since I a dummy here.
Thanks.
It's not programming, but I did program my student #1 in just three short weeks. He won 43 sessions and lost 9 for a win ratio of 4.77:1 . A player using my method needs to win 2.333 times to make up for any lost session, for it to reach balance at 2.333:1 . My student is getting better also. My second student is just starting to practice. He does not want to use the practice software so he is doing all this training the hard way. The more the three of us work on this the more we will know about the win to loss ratio as it pertains to money. If I lower the win ratio to 4:1 then I will win four sessions to every 1 lost session. This should completely destroy the fallacy (1:1) known as the accepted mathematical truth. The house's edge will be the end of that "flat world" thinking. :cheer:
In case you can't figure this out, my stop win goal is lower than my stop loss point.
Quote from: Gizmotron on August 11, 2018, 02:58:20 PM
It's not programming, but I did program my student #1 in just three short weeks. He won 43 sessions and lost 9 for a win ratio of 4.77:1 . A player using my method needs to win 2.333 times to make up for any lost session, for it to reach balance at 2.333:1 . My student is getting better also. My second student is just starting to practice. He does not want to use the practice software so he is doing all this training the hard way. The more the three of us work on this the more we will know about the win to loss ratio as it pertains to money. If I lower the win ratio to 4:1 then I will win four sessions to every 1 lost session. This should completely destroy the fallacy (1:1) known as the accepted mathematical truth. The house's edge will be the end of that "flat world" thinking. :cheer:
In case you can't figure this out, my stop win goal is lower than my stop loss point.
Mark,
I am not discounting anything you said/say, same as w/Lugi and some others to a certain point.
I cannot and do not and never took the time to learn the math and conversion to figures/stats with wins and losses, etc.
I have attempted to described and detail out my effective wager selections NOT so much based on guessing and trends/patterns and other influences, etc., but on other things such as; Money Management, my unique (1 + 4 Side Parlays) my positive progressions mixed along with flat betting, wins and pull downs or an outright press up for once or twice, etc.
Attempting to only lose or risk some of the win capital or limit myself to a 'at risk' buy in, etc. But of equal importance is the player's 'Level', 'Plateau', time management merged with his emotional, vision, focus and all of that. Problems come about no matter whom you are with false perceptions of bank rolls, increasing wagers, that million dollar pot at the end of the rainbow most everyone thinks is there for the easy picking---just wager 4 to 8 shoes a day and make several easy thousand consistently, times 30 days and 12 months and BOOM, they are instant millionaires, etc. That is what really hurts some of the best players and best thought out strategies, really.
But, lots of the things you mention and Lugi mentions, I have Incorporated and have been or did, etc., with positive results. Reference: 'Win to loss ratios', and other things along those very lines interfaced with the extreme short term of taking advantage of the weak/strong/chop-chop/doubles/ with or against or whatever it might be that somehow fits into the balancing act and numbers of overall shoes. The latter statement is the one members like Lugi, (the previous Xander-Soxfan and Jimske) will twist and turn and destroy and state that I stupidly attempt to read the trends and patterns and then wager for or against them. And that is not exactly correct by any means.
Just so people won't get confused here. I'm talking about sessions won or lost, not bets won or lost. I now play for short sessions where one good enough trend makes up a good session. I'm still swing trading the Roulette table. This is all about micro movements in small bites, like at a table for no more than an hour if you get into a war to win a session. And more often than not, a session is won with only 15 spins, where only five or six bets were placed on five or six spins of those 15. Most of the great players wait for that sequence where they can kill the casino with a monster trend. I know you advocate that Glen. So do other people here that play for favorable sequences and huge returns on the effort. For that you need to play for hours waiting for the hot spot to start.
Some of the things we are parallel exactly and some of the things we are not. In baccarat not talking about the roulette game in anyway, but you can walk up to the table and you could could knock them dead, if it's already a third to two-thirds of the shoe out and you know a little history of that game you can do it in 5 to 10 to 15 hands with a $300.00 to $1,000 on the buy in, for example.