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Messages - KungFuBac

#62
KungFuBac / Baccarat Lucky Six
December 03, 2023, 04:56:31 AM
#65
Good read.

I like the following:

"...Funds set aside for F7 wagering.  I like 2 tactics  myself.  1). Hit a sizable win extremely early on and set aside my win as the F7 risk capital money.  So to me, it's on the casino.  Yes, it was my win money and I could have pocketed it, etc., but I choose to win more on the casino's dime and with a clearer head, less stress and far less or zero emotions if the wager(s) lose.  2). Buy in with a certain amount set aside for the sole purpose of F7 and/or other side bets.  To me, that is risk capital.
...."

    The Variance is obviously so great on this wager (1:44.xx) with only a 40:1 payout. Yet, one should view Variance as a friend(or at least as a frienemy). Just as we should endorse Variance on the base bets too(B/P).

What makes the F7 wager so difficult is that lets say a player is feeling lucky and thinks they can select one winner in forty attempts. So lets take 40 x $1 and wager it forty tries on the F7. If we received favor and do indeed hit one winner. We have won $1. Lets say we get extremely crazy lucky and hit two F7 in the forty tries. We have won $42. Reminder it's a (1:44.xx) bet.

However , with such high Variance we could go hundreds(even a thousand) of hands without seeing one single F7 winner.

Now, on a more positive note:
We may hit that first F7 on our very first try. Then we would have 39 more tries. Maybe like the shoe referenced above (6 F7s) type of Variance may show. Maybe we are in sync with several F7s and may hit them at the front end of our tries. This is where a solid money management system is critical. Most players would just start wagering larger/larger and splattering bets everywhere with hedges galore. The casino absolutely loves for us to hedge a high HA wager with one or more additional HA wagers where we can NOT win all but can indeed lose all on one outcome.

The 3C7s are always in each shoe. However, they may not always appear when /where we want (maybe it shows on the Player). That P8 bettor probably notices as they thought they had a winner as that third card was a 3 instead of a 4. The F7 bettor notices as they just saw their would-be F7 winner swept away on a tie.
Sometimes they do indeed show on B but get tied by P (with a 3-card 7), which is still a NOTwinner for the F7 bettor. 2-card 7s are also in abundance per shoe and often steal key cards from the 3c7 hand.
Many players don't pay attention or care and simply don't notice unless they show as a 3c7 winner for B.

Re: Counting for side bets like the F7, P8 , et al.

"Reference a viable F7 count.  I researched counting and presentments as a clue to an up coming F7 and IMO, there are none.  Again, IMO those that believe there are viable counts to gain advantages are mislead.  Why do I say that, because there will be just as many if not more of the same counts that WILL NOT PRODUCE the anticipated F7 that is supposed to appear, etc. ..."

    My opinion differs a little. I think card counting coupled with other intuition/deduction can indeed assist us with hitting more F7s vs the alternative: Relying solely on Variance (and hope).

One's objective with a counting method should be to wager more tries when the probability of (F7 requisite cards) ratio to remaining cards is favorable. This moment will be short lived and likely only occur a few times in any one shoe. In other words, our objective should be to:  "miss more of the misses" vs trying to hit more F7s. We are more likely to see exactly (0) or exactly (1) vs >=2 F7s, in any one shoe.

So, in my opinion we should be trying to hit say 1 in 37 attempts (reminder that expected is 1:44.xx),  vs finding more F7s. So, wager fewer wagers vs wagering every hand hoping to ride Variance.

The problem with counting is that even though we may improve our hit rate slightly it may not be enough to surpass the HA(7.67% I "think"). I would assume most counting systems utilize some type of card extraction and card retention as a ratio to remaining cards in the shoe. That alone is not likely to solve the puzzle in my opinion.

As mentioned above the burn/cut certainly make a precise count difficult. Though I agree this issue adds to our task. I also believe it is still doable. In other words, I would prefer one burn card vs ten burn cards/ I would prefer zero cut cards. Since that is not possible, we must accept that feature.

So, let's say we have a cut and burn cards=18. Though we can't know which cards are included we can approximate. We can approximate the 18 cards in the burn/cut will have the same proportion of key cards as any 18 randomly selected consecutive cards immediately following. In latter stages of shoe we may even be able to know exactly which cards were NOT included in the burn/cut total of 18. Plus, these 18 cards included in the burn/cut could just as easily improve our probability of receiving an F7 winner.

Plus, as an addendum benefit to tracking/counting side wagers is that anything that increases the probability of a certain wager winning must also make something else "less probable", and vice versa. Due to the finiteness and approaching of limits starting from the first card removed.

Plus, tracking/counting can't hurt.

More later on this topic



Continued success,




#66
General Discussion / Re: legal thievery
December 02, 2023, 04:17:24 PM
Thx 8OR9. Interesting and somewhat concerning.

"...A good  idea is to buy some Travelers checks and/or money orders and hide them in your shoes if you are planning on taking a long car or train ride to a casino or somewhere else...."

Excellent ideas. Its also a good idea to check with your primary bank as they often have low limits on their max allowance for money orders(I went years without knowing this as I never purchased a MO or travelers chk). Many federal credit unions will not charge for money orders so if low max for M.O. (say 500 or 1000) then not a problem as we can purchase as many as we need.

Many banks will also allow for a temporary increase on our debit card if one calls ahead and requests an increase in daily load/ withdrawals for the next 7 days,...etc. People going on vacation, gambling,...etc.

Other options to get around carrying large sums of cash:

I researched this a few years back due to my increase in gambling trips as well as playing in smaller markets with smaller casino chains.

A)Try to bank at a regional or national bank system in your primarily gambling-destination towns. Bank of America, Jp Morgan Chase,..etc.

B) Visa or MCard preload debit cards. Even better if they can be loaded at a Walmart or Walgreens pharmacy(locations everywhere).

C) Pay attention to not only fees (for loading and or withdrawl) but also note daily limits. Also, if you think you may want to transfer back and forth between say your main bank and say paypal(research this before selecting the best card for you.)

A few that I have used in the past/present:

Brinks debit card
Paypal MC debit card
Netspend debit card


They all have upper deposit load limits (15000), accepted everywhere, and high daily load/withdrawl-transfer limits(<=5000 per day). They may have low daily atm limits--though we shouldnt need (or want) to withdraw via atm anyway. Our (at least my) goal is for avoiding carrying large sums of cash(via car or plane.

*Netspend allows up to 7500 daily deposit



Continued Success,
#67
Thx for post and pics.

I agree it (High F7 shoe) was certainly atypical. I must say you do seem to receive shoes with more F7s at your cas(vs my casinos). Maybe they have an atypical shuffling procedure?? I have one casino that seems to have more shoes with 2x2 streaks. Anybody have thoughts or theories on this??

re: F7
I typically only wager F7 when I am pressed up and at a critical junction in my progression. (i.e., If I lose this next wager my buyin is crippled). So, I will often wager for the F7(either to win my wager amount or at least the amount of my money still in that wager).

I track some things that suggest when an F7 is more available in the residual shoe. I may only wager F7 2-3 times per shoe(or zero).

*I once saw nine consecutive shoes at one casino with zero F7s(Not consecutive shoes just consecutive shoes I played).

Q: alrelax how did u play this high F7 shoe?



Thanks again




#68
A really good thread started by Nickmsi. Great addendum thoughts by several learned players. I encourage all to read and or review again.



Continued Success To All,
#69
General Discussion / Re: Gambling Quotes
November 22, 2023, 05:03:06 PM
"It is much easier to get ahead and win with larger wins than it is with smaller losses."

                                                                  --Anonymous B. Winner
#70
General Discussion / Re: crypto
November 22, 2023, 04:51:37 PM
Ha, u beat me to it 8OR9 as I was getting ready to post same exact link.

Cheers,
#72
Online Casinos / Re: online casinos better?
November 15, 2023, 03:17:58 PM
Thx albalaha for feedback/thoughts. I would be comfortable with a live dealer broadcast(similar to Stadium Bac). However, I am not comfortable with a delayed broadcast or the game such as the one by Evolution where the dealer looks like an AI figure.
In my opinion, its simply too easy for a reactive RNG adjustment to the players' wager/size. Yet still within expected Variance. Just my personal opinion /I could be wrong.

Alb:

"...Playing online has world of comforts. There is no cheating usually specially if you play live dealer...."


:nod:

#73
Bally's Blog / Re: Whatever happened to Roulette?
November 08, 2023, 04:32:17 PM
Thx for link to roulette postings by turbogenius(great name handle :thumbsup: ). I also appreciate you recognizing a fellow gamer that selflessly tries to help others improve their skillset.

I didn't really discover roulette until past couple years. I was one of those that ignored it because of the higher house edge on its even-chance wagers(vs Bac or Craps line bets,...etc). In past I mostly played it with my free play.

I recently started playing it more often(In past couple yrs or so) as many of my casinos don't open Bac tables until noon or 2pm or 4pm, or whenever they feel like it,...etc. So, it offers another opportunity to play as I wait.

I have found posts on the RouletteIdeas site helpful. I've read some of the essays by our alumni posters such as albalaha and gizmotron. I found them helpful and informative as I try to expedite my learning curve.

I am currently doing very well with a four number method/with a trigger that I will share more as  additional data is collected.

*Does anyone personally know Gizmotron as we haven't heard from him in a while??


Continued Success,
#74
Off-topic / Re: What else besides baccarat?
November 08, 2023, 04:02:04 PM
NICE AD /thx for posting. A home invader would be in a high-risk situation.

My target practice/shooting range is me driving out to the country to the farm and placing a 5 Gallon bucket behind a pond dam,LOL. I can hit it most times(depending on the distance :) ).

*I recently bought my second Sig Sauer p365. A great CC pistol in my opinion.


Cheers,
#75
Online Casinos / Re: online casinos better?
November 08, 2023, 03:54:00 PM
Thanks ADulay for the feedback/opinion.

I play a lot in a state with many Indian casinos. I'm currently trying to get one tribe to install Stadium Bac(live dealer /broadcast to their other cas).

I have acquaintances that perceive Bovada offers a fair game. I have no opinion as I can't set up an online account in my state. Though I can travel a few minutes across state lines and immediately start receiving email/ texts for setting up an account from online gambling sites including MGM,Caesars,..etc)LOL

*The indian casinos/horse racing industries lobby the state to not allow any form of online gambling(for obvious reasons) as they want you to play at their casino or racino.
One tribe even offers an online site(cayman islands or costa rica I believe,...etc), yet won't allow their own tribal members to gamble on that site.


Continued Success,