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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on September 16, 2021, 04:08:06 pm »
Thanks, I'll address your questions in a couple of days

as.
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General Discussion / Bac hand history
« Last post by klw on September 16, 2021, 11:35:23 am »
Hi -- I am looking for some Bac hands to analyse, the more the better.

I have come across this,


 https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/1000-baccarat-shoes-8-deck.txt


They are random generated hands which I doubt will be the same as real B n M hands.

Are they any good for basic stats ?

Any help would be appreciated.

Cheers.
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by klw on September 16, 2021, 11:03:30 am »
Hi AsymBacGuy -- Just started reading some of your other threads/posts . I came across this :-

" A) Itlr Banker streaks are more prevalent than B singles counterpart but we all know that many shoes will produce many B singles. "

This has surprised me and demonstrated that I have a lot to learn. I expected the distribution of sequences of an even chance game to be something like roulette which is :-

 15 Sequences

     Sequence         Appearances

          1                        8
          2                        4
          3                        2
          4/4+                   1

Looking at what you have written above this is not true ?

If this is not true then my percentages in my last post will be off so apologies for that.

Can you correct me please ?

Cheers.
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by klw on September 16, 2021, 10:52:10 am »
Really enjoying your posts AsymBacGuy -- I love your way of breaking down the sequences and applying the AB measurements.

You could also create other ways of measuring pattern appearances such as  C and D where is C is sequence of 1 and 4 or 4+ in length and D are sequences of 2 and 3 in length giving an approximate appearance percentage of 60/40 in favour of C.

We could then wait for an imbalance of say domination of C ( which will be mainly sequences of 1 ) and look to bet for D to correct the imbalance.

Of course as has been said many times anything can and will happen short term but longer term the appropriate balance will happen at some stage.

It's a question of recognising what is happening and being prepared to take advantage of it.

Cheers.
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8OR9--Your comments in reply#7/9 were stated perfectly.


Your analogy is great:

"....Rooting for a pro team is like rooting for US Steel or General Motors to have a profitable year so the CEO can get a         
 $ 5,000,000 bonus at the end of the year.   No Thanks! ..."




I concur 100%.




Continued Success,
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on September 15, 2021, 03:37:04 pm »
Nice post, KFB!!  :thumbsdown:

as.
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by KungFuBac on September 15, 2021, 03:20:34 pm »
Thx AsymBacGuy
These last couple essays are two of your finest.

This is an area of my game Im trying to improve. In other words how to recognize a streak(or pattern) earlier so that I don't have to be as concerned about the length of said pattern.(*I think alrelax or gr8, maybe asymbac stated something to this effect years ago in a post).



In my efforts to improve early detection skills I often find myself combining a decision-making tree based on a probability model, combined within a biased-outcome model. All the while trying to also wager on a simple model of just betting on what the shoe is producing right now.  Sometime we may even win the decision yet not know definitively which model (if any) led us to the correct guess(at least for me).

For example, lets say a shoe presents an early string of (B PP B PP B PP). Each player at the table may be guessing right (or wrong), with all guessing in unison or maybe equally divided at 50-50. However, each player may be thinking or deducing or guessing using totally different logic, or maybe just haphazardly guessing .

*It would be interesting if each player at that table had the thoughts bubble circles floating above their heads for all to see.
Maybe we could look into each players head(Like the Mel Gibson movie: What women want where he can hear what women are thinking). :)
 

(B PP B PP B PP)

Player #1: "every B is holding at one so every time I see a B I shall bet P once and wait til i see another B"--damn Im smart and likely the worlds greatest bac player"

Player #2: "every PP is holding at two so everytime I see a PP I shall bet B once and wait til I see another PP"--damn Im smart and likely the worlds greatest bac player"

Player #3: "every B is turning and every PP is turning to a single B so I shall bet every hand by wagering B, followed by PP, then bet the same pattern to continue"--damn Im smart and likely the worlds greatest bac player"

Player #4: "I shall always bet opposite of B single, I see a B so I shall P, P, I'm 1-0 and up a unit and there is no way this pattern can continue, color up--damn Im smart and likely the worlds greatest bac player."

Player #5: "this dealer is smoking hot and I think she likes me, and since she is a perfect 10, and since all outcomes are always random I shall wager $10 on the F7,f7, --damn Im smart and likely the worlds greatest bac player." ....
......but I digress :)



What Im getting at is sometimes I look back on a multi-wager consecutive winning streak and realize much of my winnings came from simply identifying or some how getting on the streak early. Though Im not 100% sure if it was due to solid logic, lucid thinking, discernment, years of experience,  or did I just get lucky and right place at right time.


Continued Success,
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on September 15, 2021, 02:00:54 am »
At baccarat propensities are around any corner, up to the point that we think it's virtually impossible to be losers at this game for long.

Due to its finiteness and asymmetrical rank card distribution (along with other features several times considered here) any single shoe is a world apart.

You already know that my unb plan #1 will rarely cross 3 or more losing spots in a row, after all the probability to win is 0.75% per every two bets placed.

To show how weird is this game compared to expected probabilities, let's consider now another betting plan.

This time we take care of columns' outcomes (horizontal registration) registered in term of 1s, 2s, 3s and 4s.

For example a shoe succession as:

BB
P
BBB
PPPP
B
P
BB
PP
B
PPP
B

becomes a 2,1,3,4,1,1,2,2,1,3 sequence

Next we'll build two opposite A and B chances getting different one-level and/or two-level winning results:

A chance wins whenever a single or an exact triple will come out (thus winning at 1 and 3 patterns);

B chance wins whenever a double or a 4+ streak will come out (thus winning at 2 and 4+ patterns).

So in the above sequence we'll get a B,A,A,B,A,A,B,B,A,A pattern.

Notice that B chance loses every single situation and will win just whenever a streak different to 3 will come out, A chance will win either after a single shows up or when the streak is limited to 3.

See what happens from a probability point of view:

A chance will win whenever a new column shows a single (0.5 or so probability)
or whenever a triple come out after a first losing bet (0.25 probability)

B chance will win whenever a new column shows a streak, but only doubles or 4+ streaks (0.5 + 0.25 probability) will be accounted as a win.

Therefore at A side long chopping lines (BPBPBP..) will be clustered winners the same as long single series getting many 3s along the way without doubles or 4+s.
On the other end, B side encounters long winning clusters only when doubles come in a row or when 4s come in a row or a mix of the two.

Now test your shoes and try to see if some patterns could be more likely than others in term of 'runs' or, better yet, whether previous patterns are 'forecasting' more often than not the following 'runs' situations.

as.
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Sports Betting Forum / Re: Taking Statistical Calculated Risk With Sports Betting Service
« Last post by 8OR9 on September 14, 2021, 10:19:39 pm »
Without betting on the games, most professional sports would almost disappear....................especially the National Football League.   

If you lived in San Diego, would you care about who would win a game between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions?

Rooting for a pro team is like rooting for US Steel or General Motors to have a profitable year so the CEO can get a         
 $ 5,000,000 bonus at the end of the year.   No Thanks!

"Good teams win..........great teams cover the point spread"

 
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AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable itlr
« Last post by AsymBacGuy on September 14, 2021, 09:04:36 pm »
Hi KFB!

From a general point of view, best predictable patterns come out with chopping lines and streaks of moderate/huge lenght, naturally both are coming out more probably when key cards are strongly balanced between two sides for long or hugely unbalanced at one side.
The remanining world, albeit being the most part, belongs to the 'confusing' field of more whimsical outcomes that might stop or prolong those basic patterns.

It's like that a shoe is composed by undetectable sections (that is whenever key cards are diluted) and more detectable portions where key cards are clustered in some way, that is forming the above more predictable lines.

No need to track key cards precisely, an experienced player get an idea when 'neutral' and key cards are more likely to show up, in addition as he/she takes care about HOW previous hands went.
Notice that naturals (and standing points) are constituing a way large part of total outcomes.

Hands produced by 6 cards are the highest form of 'randomness', then hands formed by 5 cards and finally formed by 4 cards (standing points at either side and naturals on one or two sides)

So, imo, besides the total key cards ratio happening at given points of the shoe, the number of key cards falling at 6 cards and 5 cards hands is another helping tool.

If we'd dissect numerous long 'chopping lines' of a given shoe, we'll see that most of the times key cards are quite balanced on either side, in some way telling us that they're quite concentrated.

The same about long streaks: strong key card falling at the same side, maybe asym hands that went right for B side during a B streak, or conversely at P side, asym hands that went wrong so prolonging a P streak.

What seems to be undetectable actually it isn't. At least not by the degree casinos collect their profits.

Patterns are a good way to think of things, better if we assign to them a 'card feature' even whether approximated.

Finally, there's always the old scientifically proved 'very slight propensity' to get the opposite result already happened. A natural reflex of key cards that cannot disappear from the shoe.

More on that later

as.
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