DO NOT THINK ABOUT IT, JUST FRIGGEN DO IT!!!

Last night it was simply beautiful!  Simply amazing, flawless and a touch of stomach wrenching, even thou I wasn't technically playing.

Here's what happened.  I went to the casino to pick up H-Money my buddy. He was dropped off there by a family member and we were going to go out to eat, after I picked up and then give him a ride home. I get to the casino and I'm standing there with H-Money, he is into the place for about $3,400. Asks me how much cash I have on me. I go in my pocket and I have $820 plus a folded up $450 that I had to drop off to somebody on the way home. I tell him $1,270. He asks for it and I give him $1,200 even.

Understand what was going on, as I was standing there watching for about 10 hands. Everybody was losing.  No matter what side they were wagering on the majority of the people were losing. There were hands such as the following ones I will write out.

P=2/face B 10/7 and P pulls a 6. Everyone on bankers.
P=4/9 B face/6 and P pulls a 4.  Everyone on bankers.

Everyone switched to players. 
P=10/8 (of course quick hi-5s) B turns over 10/9.

Most all the serious bettors switched back to bankers.
P=9/8. B=5/A.

Most stayed bankers.  P=9/9. B=9/8.

Then hands such as: P=face/4. B=face/face. P pulls a 6 and bankers pulls a 10.  Most were on bankers and that, "darn can't even beat a zero" was said out loud in frustration.

Everyone on players with large wagers. 
P=5/9. B=2/10. Players turn over a 7.  Bankers turn over a face card.  Another frustrating hand for most.

H-Money says, "let's do this" pretty loud.  Throws in the $1,200 I gave him and he had a few hundred left in chips.  He was attempting to get some camaraderie going, but most were down in their buy-ins and multiple re-buys. You know heads in their hands type of aura going on. 

It is a $2,000 max table. H-Money puts $800 on the bankers side and slaps the table. Most follow with a couple being on the players side.  Players open an 8 and a 2, Bankers open a 9 and a 10 for the win.  H-Money quickly parlays it all and adds the other $400 he had for the table max.  Dealer says table max out loud, the pit person sitting down with her back to the baccarat table turns her head and says OK, because she saw all the regular players.  One other person is near table max and the others on bankers are probably $50 to $200-ish.  Cards dealt, players total of 6 and bankers had a two card total of 7.  H-Money lets out a loud "Sweet Whispering Geronimo" and lots of laughter and happy faces. 

Understand this is an EZ Bac table, no bankers commission and most are regular patrons and friends anyway.  H-Money is staying at table Max and I will make sure he colors up and leaves if his winning streak continues or whatever he is feeling. Lots play for the cut or doubles and then the cut as we all know. 

Well a good 15 minutes later if not 20 minutes or so, seven more winning IAR bankers were made for a total streak of 9.  H-Money stuck at table max on every single one, from the 2nd one on, with lots of fanfare from numerous people playing.  Of course he lost the last one.  By the way, the hand that fell off was, P=N9 and B=N8. 

H-Money got his $3,400 back, gave me my $1,200 and walks with $10K plus a few hundred.  Nice dinner off casino property paid for as well as a gas fill up, both courtesy of H-Money. 

Side Note:  Lots of people playing cannot capitalize handsomely on streaks, extended chop chop, extended doubles or countless other events because of the drummed in belief of, "it can't or shouldn't happen" so they wager continuously for the cut and then when the cut comes, they go for the IAR, etc.  Or, they stop wagering all together. 

But H-Money hit it hard, stuck with it and I made sure he colored up and cashed out.  I can't say what he would have done if I was not there.  But I do know, wins like that give unhealthy beliefs that a continuation of winning has to happen and quick winnings are very quickly given right back and additional buy-ins are attempted to win again.   

Hi KFB!!!

As you well know (probably better than us) there are several 50/50 propositions: The general factor working for all of them is the allegedly total independence of each trial, taken for granted that BEFORE every trial the real (not expected) probability is 50/50.

Coin flip successions were deeply studied by eminent experts and anyway they are not bettable at any casino. Yet they could be a fair theorical reference model.

Pass and don't pass lines at Craps constitute a slight world apart (and we've discussed some Craps concepts privately).

Probably the best practical example about both independence and virtual perfect 50/50 probability before every trial are represented by the EC distributions at roulette.

Of course baccarat is a 50/50 game only under the eyes of ignorant and clueless people.
Actually it's a strong asymmetrical game for two different reasons 1- B>P and 2- rank cards are unequally distributed along any single shoe dealt. And among ranks, key cards hold a decisive role upon the outcomes.

Do large data teach us that itlr everything will show up by an expected well verified probability correspondent to a kind of coin flip game or 50.68/49.32 proposition?

Yes, if we do not know what to really look for and one of the tool we should be interested at is the consecutiveness of certain results applied to selected patterns.

Actually after having dissected thousands and thousands of shoes, we reached the conclusion that the vast majority of bac results PER SHOE move around seemingly 50/50 propositions by low levels or even neutral levels of asymmetry, yet rank cards cannot be homogeneously distributed for long so giving room to way more detectable shifted situations.

Streaks lenght is just one factor to be studied, consecutiveness of a given pattern is another one. Merging such those two simple factors provide an astounding probability of success capable to  erase and invert the HE.

In fact and especially whether some random walks are in action, bac streaks are shorter than at a 50/50 game, nevertheless in any instance we do not want to try to stop streaks unless they belong to specific back to back patterns.

More later

as.

Important update : Pi network established ATM machines and cards to strengthen this digital currency. Don't miss this anymore.

BTC will stay and get stronger. Those predicting that it will not last should learn from BlackRock, Elon Musk and other big whales who are into it for a reason. BTC should get more peaks and troughs this year giving us opportunities to enter and exit many times. Eythereum is also very good choice apart from BTC.

"Gambling with cards or dice or stocks is all one thing. It's getting money without giving an equivalent for it."  – Henry Ward Beecher

Bitcoin at 62,900 today 3/22/24. By the time some of you on the other side of the globe read this it may be at 73k or 53k. As I've mentioned in past few weeks, I have been adding positions in BITI(Proshares SHORT Bitcoin Futures). So obviously it moves opposite BTC direction. That is if BTC goes up my BITI shares decrease, and vice versa.  Today I was able to unravel 20% (1 of 5 tier levels) of total shares @ an approx. +13.5% ROI.
My motto: "The trend must end".  Just like in gambling.

I'm still underwater on the initial tier purchases. I was optimistic in past couple weeks that I could add two additional tier levels if Bitcoin euphoria continued and BTC went to 85k levels. I actually hypothesized that once BTC went through 55k without much of a retracement that it could then move upward to 85k range before retracement <=30%.

*I saw a stat this week that new first-time BTC buyers in past six months had an avg entry price @ 54k. So, we may actually see a retracement to that level as a temporary basal level.

**I also saw several weeks ago when BTC was in 40k--50k range. It regressed -10--12k over a few days and that only 3% of BTC owners were responsible for the move.

__________________________________________________________

Poster above: "Those considering themselves smarter than Blackrock putting $3 Billions in it should introspect a bit more..."

    The U.S. Government agreeing to grant approval for BlackRock's ETF is confirmation the U.S. Gov is wanting to have some control over the BTC market. I'm still not clear on exactly what the USgov plans with BTC market. I suspect BlackRock has been quietly buying BTC at very low prices in past 6-8 years(with US Gov knowledge and support).

Blackrock is currently the largest manager of U.S. Gov pension/retirement. BR manages approx. 12 trillion of U.S. Gov retirement pensions. If one has worked for the U.S. Gov it is likely that Blackrock manages your retirement directly or indirectly. I like them relative to most financial managers as they only charge 0.76% management fee. Plus, they will continue managing after one retires. Many funds mgrs. do not allow(without addendum fees or penalties). Which is really good. This fee % is often overlooked.

They also offer one of the lowest management fees for their recent ETF Vs other ETFs such as Grayscale. I suspect these upfront fees is one of the main reasons we are now seeing all these recent ETF offerings from numerous investment companies.

Re:ETFs

In two consecutive days last week Grayscale saw 640 million /400+Million of outflowing funds from their ETFs as recent investors unloaded. In two days, Grayscale lost 40% of their total Bitcoin holdings they had accumulated in past decade. Over the past week they saw over 12 billion $ in outflow.

    *I'm starting to hear a few of the early and very large bitcoin advocates acknowledge that BTC is not suitable for a currency.




Best of luck to all bit coiners,

Hi Asym

In the post #1011 above you say:

"...There are a couple of principal reasons to explain such streaks (and other patterns) propensity:

a) the general factor causing baccarat streaks to be shorter than at a perfect 50/50 proposition;

b) the finiteness of long streaks distribution, especially after coming out by a consecutive fashion.
  ..."

On (a) do you mean relative to a coin flip or do you mean in comparison with "even chance ish" games like line bets in Craps?? Both?  Neither??

Thx in advance,kfb

Just can't trust anyone when filthy lucre is involved


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9S7nyS3O1oA

"If you want to win big, you have to be okay with losing it all".

"Sometimes you have to lose, just to win again ".


General Quotes

Baccarat can't be beaten mathematically but by exploiting results by a frequentist statistical approach.
And one of the possible tool to utilize is to set up a kind of "boundary" plan getting room to more likely patterns of different levels.
The 5/5+ streaks distribution is just an example (see later).

Thus we can't rely upon certainty but upon probabilities and such probabilities become so overwhelming  vs randomness (or supposedly randomness) to assure us an edge.
Providing to wait for given situations to show up as we have verified that after a given event the subsequent event or class of events won't be proportionally shaped differently to what general probability laws dictate.

More hands we want to 'guess' greater will be the probability to fall directly into the random unbeatable world as the strong negative deviations will cause us a way greater damage than the symmetrical marked positive situations for the general EV- impact.

Streaks lenght and distribution

We've seen that per every shoe dealt long streaks (in our example 5/5+ streaks) are not coming out around any corner, but surely they will sooner or later show up by deviated values at either side (ranging from 0 to 4 or more).
Naturally some rare shoes make room to such long streaks without (plenty of singles and no inferior streaks) or intertwined by few inferior streaks coming out isolated.

In the former scenario and for the 'clustering' factor we always should get the advantage from, we won't bet a dime and in the latter case the consecutiveness of such isolated inferior streaks patterns will make a huge role in determining our edge.

Therefore if we assume as C= clustered inferior streaks and as I=isolated inferior streaks we know that itlr C=I.

Things change whenever we'd consider more complex distributions where the simplest is the back to back I occurence per any shoe dealt.

So after C or I anything could happen and the same after C-C, yet after I-I the most probable situation to face is to get a C and not another I. Obviously everything always related to the actual probability of success.
That is another I showing up after I-I sequence will be less proportionally probable than facing a I-I-C sequence.

In poorer words, we need quite of time to wait for such situations (I-I), but whenever they'll come out we can get an indeniable sure edge.
BTW, a propensity working at other similar pattern situations.

There are a couple of principal reasons to explain such streaks (and other patterns) propensity:

a) the general factor causing baccarat streaks to be shorter than at a perfect 50/50 proposition;

b) the finiteness of long streaks distribution, especially after coming out by a consecutive fashion.

In some way a kind of "conditional probability" is supposed to work, meaning that the room to get inferior streaks clustered at least one time is somewhat amplified after two "failed" attempts (that is after two consecutive isolated inferior streak classes happening).

It doesn't matter if our betting class is composed by 2s and 3s or 3s and 4s or even 2s and 4s.
Itlr I-I-C > I-I-I by values greater than the 3:1 cutoff ratio.

See you next week

as.