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#91
General Discussion / Re: A Question about Crypto
Last post by Albalaha - March 08, 2024, 12:10:25 PM
I think, I should answer from my side:

What is the actual PLAN for your crypto "investments"?
I prefer to use it as a systematic investment plan wherein I would invest a small amount every month in it which could be about 10% of all my investments.

Is it merely to make money, as in any gambling endeavor?
It is a proven High Yield Income Plan, only pour that much money that does not make you crazy on losing, although chance of losing all in crypto is negligible.

Is it to build something for on down the road when retirement looms large?
As I said, it is a money multiplier and could help with retirement with a dash of luck. Its two decades history tells that.

With your holdings in crypto, can you use it to live on or plan with for future expenditures?
I have kept it for coming ten years and might sell a bit if required.

Do you consider it a real investment in the future or merely something to dabble in while stumbling forward in life?
 I consider it as a side investment, for now. It may become better with time and could change perceptions.   

If you have a substantial amount in crypto, do you sell some to hold back some kind of profit or do you plan on just keeping it until it hits the magical 1 million dollar mark?
Do not put all your eggs in one basket is the guiding principal for me. If I have a big sum in it, I would diversify half of it in lesser volatile, lesser earner sources like index funds.

Do you have a tax strategy for any of this?
In my country India, tax evasion in crypto is technically very difficult these days but people always have ways to hide income and tax thereupon. You just need to look around.

Can you use your crypto holdings as collateral on something in an emergency should the need arise?
I can sell it instantly and can re enter that if comfortable in future.

I see the alure of the BTC game to many people but somehow I just don't see or visualize the outcome of this.   There simply has to be something I'm missing here.
Bitcoin etc are alternative currency for the world and I believe it is here to stay. No govt. can eliminate it completely. It has already been accepted worldwide.

I just moved another $70,000 from an asset that got called into another product that will produce a similar profit moving forward.  I would not even think about moving that money into a BitCoin.
As I said, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Real Estate, Gold, Bonds, Mutual Funds, Stocks, Crypto nothing is guaranteed to earn well all the time and those which can guarantee, they offer abysmal returns. So, Diversify.

Am I truly a Luddite in the 21st Century of money management in real life or am I simply not seeing the big picture in the digital world?
 You are simply an oldschool and nothing bad in being that but closing your eyes with emerging markets and technology is not a good idea.

Now, my query for you:
1) How much of BTC do you actually own as of now?
2) any other altcoin every tried?

If you never did that, just have a taste with a little money that you spend in hosting a frineds' party.

#92
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: cryptocurrency and me
Last post by Albalaha - March 08, 2024, 09:44:03 AM
It came over $69k, corrected a bit and still at good enough price today over $67k.


Those considering themselves smarter than Blackrock putting $3 Billions in it should introspect a bit more.
Bitcoin doesn't have any intrinsic value! OK. Does diamond have any? Value for anything is decided by demand and supply forces. Here, I quote the classic case of Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble?
The Dutch tulip bulb market bubble (or tulip mania) was a period in the Dutch Golden Age during which contract prices for some of the tulip bulbs reached extraordinarily high levels and then dramatically collapsed in February 1637; the rarest tulip bulbs traded for as much as six times the average person's annual salary at the height of the market.

Supply of Shiba Inu even after huge burning is in Quadrillions that exceeds even the assets of the universe taken together even if it reaches $1 in value. XRP is capped at 100 Billions hence could reach a value of even $50 in the long run. Bitcoin total supply as of present is a bit over 19 millions and rest could take 100 years to be mined. This clarifies that getting a value of $100k is realistic for a bitcoin.

It is a decentralized finance and hence has no government control and that makes it kind of permanent mode of transfer of value unless anything better comes and takes its place.
             Bitcoin can not keep monopoly over the market hence Ethereum and some other prospective altcoins shall stay too.
#93
General Discussion / Re: $10.000 deposits
Last post by 8OR9 - March 07, 2024, 01:29:05 PM
Also, if you have a safety deposit box in a bank, and you think that everything in the box is ""safe"........I strongly suggest that you read the 3 or 4 page instructions which the bank gave you when you opened the box.

If you threw them away, I suggest you call your bank and have them mail it to you.

If you read it, you will probably see that if the bank receives instructions from any type of government agency,,,,,IRS......Secret Service .....Homeland Security.....etc etc......they can order the bank to lock your bank first and then the bank must notify you by mail that the box is locked one or two days after the box is locked........so you will not be able to open your box and remove any "interesting" items you may have stored in the box.

The only thing "safe" about a safety deposit bank box is that important documents such as insurance policies, social security cards, birth certificates, last will and testaments etc etc  will be safe in case your house burns down and all your important papers burn with your house.
#94
Albalaha's Exclusive / Re: cryptocurrency and me
Last post by Albalaha - March 07, 2024, 07:31:53 AM
BTC is already at its all time high now and growing day by day. Those seeing at its volatility has missed the boat. It will see a sharp decline maybe by the end of 2024 but before that prices will go up only. Those stayed invested in btc and ethereum in the last 5 years are the biggest gainers in any form of investment possible.
#95
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by alrelax - March 06, 2024, 05:38:46 AM
I don't know your personal hard core betting numbers, just what you write.

But I will tell you my worst shoes, where as I lost by the end of the shoe I would average, that I wagered around 25 times. 

The shoes that I won, I would average, that I wagered around 40 times. 

Bear in mind, I am not satisfied with a one, two or a few unit win by any means.  Likewise, my buy-in is only a small percentage of my bank roll funds and as I have written, is pure risk capital with not much of a stop loss.

What I have found, that suits me best, is attempting in the most aggressive way to get into my M.M.M. stage. And be able to implement my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd strategy, thus allowing my wagering to be strictly governed by my wins and losses effecting only a portion of my win money.

#96
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - March 06, 2024, 03:28:57 AM
Before thinking to adopt a progressive multilayered betting scheme we should understand some basic statistical tools applied to long term live shoes data.
Differently than black jack, we reached the conclusion that at baccarat we do not need millions of shoes data, few dozens of thousands are more than sufficent to realize the ranges of intervention of our plan.

Modal value at attack #1, singles vs streaks

By applying a 0.75% probability of success (that is looking for a win within a couple of attempts) and discarding a subtantial portion of initial (foremost) and ending hands, the most frequent number of bettable spots per shoe (considered as a win or a loss) is 8.

Since a two-step continuous wager is working and thinking by average values, we reckon to bet around 12 times per shoe (isolated singles and two singles in a row).

Worst situations are whenever we won't win a single two-step hand, that is when the shoe will present ALL single clusters superior than 2.
Knowing the modal value, on average the worst event we'll expect it'll be to get 16 losing bets in a row.
But since the shoe is finite and by applying a "clustering" factor, such scenario could be easily discarded, mostly as distributions wholly negating a more likely 1-2 single steps almost always cannot reach the 8 modal value (stopping well before).

In any instance, shoes NOT presenting at least one winning spot are showing up around 1% of the times. In the almost all cases the number of bettable spots (and disregarding the important clustering effect) is 5 or 6.

On the other end, shoes presenting ALL one-step and two-step single situations account for a nearly 10% of total shoes dealt.

Therefore after 100 shoes dealt and ignoring the vig for simplicity, at such most deviated situations on average we'll expect to win 4 units (1-1.5 progression) or 8 units (1-2 progression) ten times and to lose from 12.5 units (1-1.5 progression) to 18 units (1-2 progression) one time.

In a word and after 100 shoes dealt, most possible deviated outcomes at either side will get a 40 units profit (by adopting a 1-1.5 progression) to 80 units profit (1-2 progression) or a 12.5 units loss (1-1.5 progression) or 18 units loss (1-2 progression).

Then it remains to assess the most likely intermediate situations where one or more positive (most likely) or negative (less likely) event will affect the overall ratios.

Positive situations (that is isolated or two-step singles) will account a nearly 77% probability (expected value = 75%), the remaining 3-step sequences are equally distributed betweeen 3s or superior than 3s steps.

That's where our edge comes from.

Results are always shifted to our favor, it's just a matter of time that things will take a more likely profitable course of action.
It's a slow process capable to get rid either of the negative variance and of the permutations issue, both factors easily manageable by a simple clustering way of considering things.

Next week I'll give you the details about the average clustering streaks distribution.

as.
#97
Vegas and Atlantic City / Re: Top 5 Casinos to Play Bacc...
Last post by alrelax - March 06, 2024, 03:13:51 AM
Let's clarify the auto shuffler and the continuous shuffling machines.

The auto shuffler is used at bac tables as well as other card games that the dealer is not depositing every hand played back into the shuffler.  If the dealer is, then it is a continuous shuffling machine. 

In baccarat, I have never ever seen them used or heard of them being used. 

As far as the auto shuffler being used in bac, they are used with smart self reading shoes as well as without a smart self reading shoe.

#98
General Discussion / $10.000 deposits
Last post by 8OR9 - March 05, 2024, 11:42:40 PM
There are probably some other posts regarding depositing or withdrawing $10,000 or more from your bank account,,......but if you missed those posts. the link below  may refresh your memory if you are thinking of depositing or withdrawing $10,000 or more from your bank account...... money obtained from gambling winnings or other financial transactions..............     

 I have a feeling that there is alot of money hidden in mattresses or buried in the back yard in the USA as well as the rest of the world.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/bank-watching-happens-deposit-too-110400404.html
#99
AsymBacGuy / Re: Why bac could be beatable ...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - March 05, 2024, 10:05:24 PM
It's important to say that algorithms are particularly sensitive not only about the specific streaks formation but also about their relative position in the actual shoe dealt as they were instructed to suggest the best move after having implemented thousands and thousands of real shoes.

The clustering (or isolated or no showing up) effect is just one parameter (even though being the most important) they would look for.

See you later

as.
#100
Vegas and Atlantic City / Re: Top 5 Casinos to Play Bacc...
Last post by AsymBacGuy - March 05, 2024, 09:51:54 PM
KFB: I misworded my initial question. I meant to ask about CSM (Continuous Shuffle Machines)in Vegas.

Besides the Venetian Theater (where almost nobody plays there), I do not know any Vegas casino offering bac shoes shuffled by a CSM.
For that matter we have never seen CSM working at baccarat tables worldwide.

Anyway and unlike black jack where ' no hint' people keep betting at CSM decks, I'm pretty sure that no serious bac player would risk the money at those CSM tables.
I strongly discourage anyone to play when a CSM is involved.

Machines I was referring to are produced by the famous SHFL brand.
Perfectly randomly shuffled or not, once a shoe is ready to be played we must be sure the succession to remain untouched.

Thanks for the link and for the couple of real life situations you presented.

as.