Hi everyone.
After studying the Greg Fletcher "Baccarat Attack Strategy" (it's quite simple) i've decided to test it with real money and seems working fine.
I've modified the progression because it was too aggressive.
So instead 6-10-16-26-40-60 i use 6-10-16-26
Seems working fine, i play it with 0.50 coins (i earn around 10€ each session and sometimes i loose around 20-25€ instead 70-75 with Fisher attack).
I've made 22 sessions (software, not live), only 3 were lost so if the trend will not change it means that it's a good strategy!
I've always been skeptical about strategies readable online, but i've decided to trust him and here am I [smiley]aes/beer.png[/smiley]
Google: Baccarat Attack Strategy pdf (http://google.com/search?q=baccarat+attack+strategy+filetype:pdf)
Quote from: bmare on September 23, 2014, 09:27:05 AM
I've always been skeptical about strategies readable online, but i've decided to trust him and here am I [smiley]aes/beer.png[/smiley]
bmare - you have been very generous. You have decided to enrol today to post this one so that we all can benefit. Everyone should take a leaf from your generosity.
i read thru it and tried a couple of bad shoes, my style and it did well.....will test a bit more-- the betting strategy seems solid
The Fletcher strategy is downloadable for free.
I think that the retrenchment progression can be optimized.
Sincerely i cannot understand why if the attack progression is 2-3-4-5-6-8-... it cannot be the same with the retrenchment.
I have studied a lot of progressions with roulette and i think that Fletcher has found an interesting way to win a lot of sessions, but considering a random software like playtech it's absolutely necessary to adjust the retrenchment.
If you have some ideas about different retrenchment progression we can discuss them.
i am wayyyyyyy too lazy to read that pdf to find the bet selection and progression lol :pirate:
I am not Fletcher, i'm a simple player that read his strategy for free online and i thought to discuss it in this forum.
Sincerely i cannot understand these suspects.
The simple fact that i want to modify the progressions should be enough to avoid any doubt.
Anyway i hope to see soon good ideas.
I have modified the retrenchment as told and i've put a stop win at 10 coins and a stop loss at 20 coins and i see a better performance.
But i think that it's possible to do better.
[smiley]aes/wink.png[/smiley]
In the picture you can see the result of the first 20 sessions:
column A = number of bets
column B = bets won
column C = bets lost
column D = income
column E = balance (start at 28,34)
column F = play results (ties don't count in the Fletcher strategy)
column G = max bet
column H = lost coins
I got the bad sessions 5 times, more than the Fletcher expectations.
Of course 20 session are not 100 sessions or more.
Let's see.
One idea is to stop win after 7-10 coins earned instead of 10 and to stop loss at 17 coins lost instead of 20 (statistic shows that i can reduce loss in that way).
Only 3 losing sessions out of 22 seems pretty good. :thumbsup:
Be interested to see if that trend holds up.
A wise move to reduce the progression sizes, bmare.
I've noticed before that bet sizes in all the Silverthorne publications that I've read mainly seem to be intended for those with more money than sense!
good job bmare,,, i keep on forgetting to test more shoes but I will--tightening the mm is smart also!
Good post. Thank you for taking the time.
Quote from: bmare on September 24, 2014, 07:59:13 PMI got the bad sessions 5 times, more than the Fletcher expectations.
Unfortunately experience has shown that the above expectations by system vendors are quite distant from what happens in reality.
When it comes to this type of PDF files take what you read with a grain of salt. Base your conclusions in the reality of your own personal testing. Greetings.
wannawin,
Among the systems listed by Fletcher there is only one in particular, and that is the most striking one of all of them
However Fletcher does not mention all the requirements of a proper bankroll WG, LL, when to leave the table and finally the casino
Nuff said . I am playing this system for the past 17 years.
Nathan Detroit
its funny i tested this on 15 of my shoes and no losses using my own bet selections---is it a grail--lol,,, will check more and I'm testing as the bet is written 7 step retrenchment etc
With the original Fletcher bet selection I did only 30% of session bankroll and I bust the 7 steps of progression, I play 4 sessions in Dublinbet ,exactly as it was written in book.
Quote from: ozon on October 02, 2014, 09:07:01 PM
With the original Fletcher bet selection I did only 30% of session bankroll and I bust the 7 steps of progression, I play 4 sessions in Dublinbet ************,exactly as it was written in book.*******
Keep on doing exactly as written in the book you are better off.
Don`t tweak the method with your own ideas.
This post does not constitute an endorsement on my behalf of Fletchers methods as outlined in his book.
Dr. Mabuse
not tweaking the fletcher bet but I am using my own bet placements
How is this method holding out?
well me and a buddy have been testing with our own bet selections and it really holds up well!!! and the whole idea gave me an idea on altering his betting formula a bit
What method of bet placement are u using tomla? Can u post some attached sample shoes?
I fell asleep reading the pdf manual. :zzz:
Natural 9
hello all, I have just joined the forum after downloading a copy of the baccat attack strategy. Can anyone tell me if they have continued long term success using the system exactly as it is written without hanging the bet placement method or the bet progression? I have read the pdf all the way through and just tried a play for free game to see if I get it but I am a little confused so will read the manual again. Any replies are greatly appreciated
haven't read the PDF but it seems the progression can get to 60 units.
If you are playing live bac at $ 100 a unit, then that's a $ 6,000 bet.
Anyone on the forum want to bet $ 6,000 on a coin flip ?
Quote from: tdx on May 09, 2015, 12:26:53 AM
haven't read the PDF but it seems the progression can get to 60 units.
If you are playing live bac at $ 100 a unit, then that's a $ 6,000 bet.
Anyone on the forum want to bet $ 6,000 on a coin flip ?
True, who has 2K or more, do they gamble with there Money? or do they look for other investments?
Cheers
it tests ok on a few shoes----would i play it I don't know --you will lose a bunch of units once in awhile
Quote from: Tomla on May 09, 2015, 11:57:21 PM
you will lose a bunch of units once in awhile
Ain't that true of all styles of play, hey hey.
thanks for the replies. I guess I'll give it a go with the lowest stakes and just see how I get on with it. I understand I'll lose a bank every now and then but if the profits outweigh the losses then it's worth a go. I'll let you know how it turns out
I practice this method of play in March 2012 with 1,000 play money in DublinBet, and by May the bank roll built up to 44,000 at the highest point. The method does have merits, but you gotta have the guts to place the progressive bets when you lose the bets. Of course sometimes you will lose a bundle when the 6 or 7 progression got busted.
i did a couple of shoes today --damn thing works a lot
Hey Tomla ----- what progression did you use ?
attack 50-----25,40,50,65,75, 105
retrenchment 50 75 125 200 325 500 750
im too lazy, can someone post the bet placements?
WOW that is lazy:)
Quote from: WorldBaccaratKing on May 15, 2015, 12:16:38 AM
im too lazy, can someone post the bet placements?
A1, A2, -- B1, B2, B3. You can go find out online what that means
lol
I have the preakness super screener and it cost me 37 bucks! I was going to share but now...................................[smiley]popo/r-shame.png[/smiley]
think system 40 opps to 2L then try to catch the 4th an go back to opps , or stay on the side you lost to hoping it comes back for a double-- good method for choppy shoes
I read the A1, A2, -- B1, B2, B3 but did not fully understand them.
But i would like to ask, is it better then betting against three's.
Then you would capture all singles event and all sereis of two's and all series above Three.
Cheers
I think it's best not to tweak the bet placement formula, although at times we feel that we are betting against our preconceived notions of what the next bet should be. They are fundamentally quite strong though, and the money management part of it would most largely take care of the rest.
The thing I see that can be modify is the money management, to suit one's needs for risk appetite. Just today I practiced 5 games and all of them hit the profit plateau of 10 times the base bets. That mean if the per unit base bet is 25, make 250 stop; base 50 make 500 stop, so on and so forth. Only 1 game brought me to the 7 retrenchment bet, it survived; 2 games went to as far as 6 retrenchment bet, survived and the rest were a breeze.
Question:
A template.
A1 bet is Always the oppisite of the last outcome.
And if we get two players or two bankers then the A1 bet lose.
A2 bet is the same as the last A1 bet.
So if i lose with two bankers my last A1 bet was banker, then i bet banker.
So if i lose with two players my last A1 bet was player, then i bet player.
Exampel:
B
P W
B W
P W
B W
P W last A1 bet
P L
? Bet Player as my last A1 bet
Is this correct ?
I try again and post the summary:
Summary of Making A Template Bets
1. Before starting to bet always observe one decision. You will always begin betting by making an A-1 pattern bet, which is always the opposite of the previous winner. If you observe B as a winner, your A-1 bet will be on P.
2. Any time an A-1 bet wins, your next bet will also be an A-1 level bet and will follow the same rules, that it, you will always bet the opposite of the previous winning decision. If you observe P as a winner, your A-1 bet will be on B.
3. If an A-1 bet loses, the next bet will be an A-2 level bet. This bet will be on the same side as the A-1 bet. If you lose an A-1 bet on P, your A-2 bet will be on P.
4. If an A-2 bet wins, your next wager will be an A-1 bet on the same side as the A-2 bet. If you win an A-2 bet on P, your A-1 bet will be on P.
5. If you lose an A-2 bet, you will begin betting in the B Template.
I belive i got it - will try to understand B template.
I read it all now and have to say i love the Regression Up & Pull strategy when winning.
John Patrick use 21223456789 he level his third bet Before increasing, so that one smal tweak i might add, not sure yet.
The retrenchment bets feels scary as you only use around seven steps, i will ask someone to maybe increase that part of the Money management.
I like this concept very much now when i read all of it, very nice.
its murky to understand the bet progression but i think i get it now
P
P A1 bet B L
P A2 bet B L
B B1 bet P L
B B2 bet P L
B B3 bet P L
With variations on wins
P
P A1 bet & you bet for oppisite (L)
P A2 bet & you bet A1 same (W)
B A1 bet & you bet same as A2 becuse A2 won (L)
B A2 bet & you bet same as A1 (W)
B A1 bet & you bet same as A2 because A2 won (W)
1. Before starting to bet always observe one decision. You will always begin betting by making an A-1 pattern bet, which is always the opposite of the previous winner. If you observe B as a winner, your A-1 bet will be on P.
2. Any time an A-1 bet wins, your next bet will also be an A-1 level bet and will follow the same rules, that it, you will always bet the opposite of the previous winning decision. If you observe P as a winner, your A-1 bet will be on B.
3. If an A-1 bet loses, the next bet will be an A-2 level bet. This bet will be on the same side as the A-1 bet. If you lose an A-1 bet on P, your A-2 bet will be on P.
4. If an A-2 bet wins, your next wager will be an A-1 bet on the same side as the A-2 bet. If you win an A-2 bet on P, your A-1 bet will be on P.
5. If you lose an A-2 bet, you will begin betting in the B Template.
so we found the holy grail in a free pdf on a simple google search!?.....Fabulous!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quote from: Sputnik on May 15, 2015, 06:34:12 PM
P
P A1 bet & you bet for oppisite (L)
P A2 bet & you bet A1 same (W)
B A1 bet & you bet same as A2 becuse A2 won (L)
B A2 bet & you bet same as A1 (W)
B A1 bet & you bet same as A2 because A2 won (W)
1. Before starting to bet always observe one decision. You will always begin betting by making an A-1 pattern bet, which is always the opposite of the previous winner. If you observe B as a winner, your A-1 bet will be on P.
2. Any time an A-1 bet wins, your next bet will also be an A-1 level bet and will follow the same rules, that it, you will always bet the opposite of the previous winning decision. If you observe P as a winner, your A-1 bet will be on B.
3. If an A-1 bet loses, the next bet will be an A-2 level bet. This bet will be on the same side as the A-1 bet. If you lose an A-1 bet on P, your A-2 bet will be on P.
4. If an A-2 bet wins, your next wager will be an A-1 bet on the same side as the A-2 bet. If you win an A-2 bet on P, your A-1 bet will be on P.
5. If you lose an A-2 bet, you will begin betting in the B Template.
And what is the B template, can you explain?
WBK you should read the PDF - its the first time i see any one else then John Patrick that advice Regression Up & Pull.
Lets say you get zig zag results:
W +2
L +1
W +3
L +2
W +4
L +3
W +5
L +4
And with strikes you can not lose back your first winning bet - no matter what happens you have a positive gain:
W +2
W +3
W +5
W +7
W +10
W +14
W +19
And if you don't get a win with strikes or zig zag you use a negative progression as recovery strategy.
It like a pendal going into two directions.
did any one say this was a holy grail? but it does seem one should at least read the the thing before complaining or even commenting about it
Quote from: Tomla on May 15, 2015, 06:59:51 PM
did any one say this was a holy grail? but it does seem one should at least read the the thing before complaining or even commenting about it
when its "free" on an internet search engine, throw it away and never look back.......i just saved you thousands...
so you like the pay for strategies more WBK! ok got ya
Tomla ifyou want wecan tweak the method and Exchange ideas - i will PM you ...
Don't bother with otthers Tomla, they are just trolling.
The basic concept is very good.
Quote from: super6 on May 13, 2015, 07:42:50 AM
The method does have merits, but you gotta have the guts to place the progressive bets when you lose the bets.
Yup, in the end the difference between winnings and losings is havin the bankroll and the balls to push out some big bets to back up yer play, hey hey.
Quote from: Sputnik on May 15, 2015, 07:35:34 PM
Tomla ifyou want wecan tweak the method and Exchange ideas - i will PM you ...
Don't bother with otthers Tomla, they are just trolling.
The basic concept is very good.
Hey now, aren't you supposed to share?
if the basic concept is very good, leave it alone. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.......fiddling gets you no where
You might be amused to hear that I bought a copy of GF's BAS over 5 years ago and very effectively applied it to Roulette playing sixains ( double streets). I retain a copy of this work material in my 'top drawer' and regard this work very highly. There is a place for controlled progressions.
The word "seems" in the thread subject is perfectly appropriate.
Unfortunately any kind of progression, even though this one was acutely thought, soon or later will fail.
Moreover, imo the idea to bet every hand is really debatable because it increases the variance at the maximum value.
Are we really going to "control" the game hand by hand getting the most high variance value?
But the general idea to bet 2 as initial bet then lowering to 1 in case of success isn't insignificant, imho.
as.
Quote from: soxfan on May 15, 2015, 08:08:13 PM
Yup, in the end the difference between winnings and losings is havin the bankroll and the balls to push out some big bets to back up yer play, hey hey.
Absolutely agree. Must have the bankroll and balls to play this system. I practiced online in 2012 on Dublinbet, and now I am practicing again on Celtic casino. I'd also briefly played with real money a few years ago in landbased casino. I remember I'd played 4 games in the casino and all hit the target profit plateau. I'd stopped playing this method because the casino I played at has a much larger minimum stake than I would desire. The online casinos use 6 decks while lanbased casinos use 8 decks. So I do not know if that would make any significant difference. Can anybody advise?
This system requires no guessing nor analysing, just place the bets like a robot. Since this thread started my interest in this has been renewed and I might re-consider playing this again.
Quote from: super6 on May 16, 2015, 12:41:51 AM
The online casinos use 6 decks while lanbased casinos use 8 decks. So I do not know if that would make any significant difference. Can anybody advise?
The john-O used to swear that six decks shoes were more "streaky" than eight decks shoes. Also, as I recall the dublin bet offers the baccarats version that only pays half price for a win with a banker's six score and I imagine that might mess up a progression scheme, hey hey.
I actually paid for the BAC! And have not used it. What is the maximum unit at risk? Based on practical experience?
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 16, 2015, 12:27:12 AM
The word "seems" in the thread subject is perfectly appropriate.
Unfortunately any kind of progression, even though this one was acutely thought, soon or later will fail.
Moreover, imo the idea to bet every hand is really debatable because it increases the variance at the maximum value.
Are we really going to "control" the game hand by hand getting the most high variance value?
But the general idea to bet 2 as initial bet then lowering to 1 in case of success isn't insignificant, imho.
as.
Maybe I'll finally get around to reading that. I've had it a long while.
But asymbac please explain to me how betting every hand increases variance when compared with equal number of hands bet.
Quote from: Jimske on May 16, 2015, 01:22:13 PM
But asymbac please explain to me how betting every hand increases variance when compared with equal number of hands bet.
Far be it for me to speak for asymbac, but I'd love to offer my response to your inquiry:
When one learns to streamline their play into only a couple (three at most) preferred trend plays, one can then effectively control their variances. Alternatively, betting every decision can offer no such advantage.
Look at it this way, if you will, Jimske:
Most Baccarat "wannabes" (analysts/mathites that, frankly, know nothing of how to actually approach this game) will espouse to simply bet Banker every hand, as the Banker bet is always to slight favorite to win the hand. To which I say: Nonsense. Why? One word: Variance. You'd need a Brink's truck bankroll to handle those inevitable swings in those Player-dominated shoes (or portions thereof). In fact, it's funny, because as much as that "bet Banker always" nonsense is espoused by these supposedly-brilliant minds, I've yet to see a single person at the tables actually play that way. Why? L.O.S.E.R....that's why.
So we learn to control our variance. And how best to do that? By streamlining our play to the point of, for lack of a better term, MASTERING certain preferred trends. By doing so, one's strike rates will most certainly improve to, eventually, a positive peak, which, in turn, will make drawdowns/downturns much more controlled; and all of that will lead you into a completely efficient and effective recoup process.
And what happens when recoup is relatively safe and easy? Well, all of those sessions where we've won, which means no recoup was necessary at all, become PURE PROFIT. And that profit adds up so very nicely over the long term.
So we limit our plays all in the name of variance control. And once we successfully control our variances, the money management comes to us naturally, and this game, effectively, HAS BEEN BEATEN.
Stay well.
the actual bet selection is pretty darn good-----
Quote from: Tomla on May 16, 2015, 05:02:08 PM
the actual bet selection is pretty darn good-----
QUIT SPEAKING IN RIDDLES. what bet selection?
the one that is in "baccarat attack strategy" by greg fletcher!!!! try reading it, I can't explain it...first two bets are chop and reset to first step on a win---last three bets are to bet on what beat you 3 x with certain rules
It has been a while since I eyeballed the Greg Fletcher style but as I recall the bs scheme involved betting sames and opposites in various combinations. But, there ain't nothin new under the sun as far as the bets selections is concerned, hey hey.
There never is anything new under the sun ( you are right), but there are always fresh ways of seeing and adapting what is already right under our noses, previously invisible. The application of a baccarat aggressive attack strategy to a short stopped progression on sixline roulette qualifying targets was one such. I think we can all individually bring unique contributions/ adaptations to what otherwise might be conventional solutions and approaches. I am personally interested in overlapping strategies from one discipline ( say chess/ baccarat/ poker to roulette) to another for serendipitous outcomes, ie lucky breaks.
Quote from: soxfan on May 16, 2015, 09:36:18 PM
It has been a while since I eyeballed the Greg Fletcher style but as I recall the bs scheme involved betting sames and opposites in various combinations. But, there ain't nothin new under the sun as far as the bets selections is concerned, hey hey.
Yes there's nothing new in betting sames and opposites. All baccarat systems are like that. It's either player or banker, opposites or repeats or neutrals. But there's just something here that this system has got the bets locked in nice combinations that make it work. Coupled with the money management part of it, it just rock. I mean I play many styles from pitboss to NOR to Frankenstein to Silverthorn's stuff, but none has been as successful as Baccarat Attack System, at least on paper and in real live.
Lurker just joining in. Correct me if I am wrong, but as I read it, the bet selection for this system is to bet every opposite will go opposite and every repeat will repeat. Same thing as TBL-Time Before Last. No?
Quote from: Smoothie on May 18, 2015, 01:20:44 AM
Lurker just joining in. Correct me if I am wrong, but as I read it, the bet selection for this system is to bet every opposite will go opposite and every repeat will repeat. Same thing as TBL-Time Before Last. No?
there was switches and it tells you how long to play each and when to switch back
I can see how it is confusing.
rule 1. an A-1 bet is Always opposite of the previous winning decision.
rule 3. if an A-2 bet wins the next bet will be an A-1 on the same side (winning A-2 bet).
got it. I found a little humor in it, seems like that 40 something system at first .
seems like it's a good method. I like to call progression methods BnB methods (Bank and Balls) .
I will need a pencil and paper to keep the facts str8.
For 3 days I played online in Celtic Casino using practice money and there was'nt a losing game of a total 27 games i played and all hit profit target! Damn I just don't believe it! I thought maybe because of 6 decks that the casino used made the differenece.
So today I took my own 8 decks and played the system and it's a 3 out of 3 games winner, by following the system to the letter. Anyone here have any feedback on testing this system?
Quote from: super6 on May 18, 2015, 03:04:19 PM
For 3 days I played online in Celtic Casino using practice money and there was'nt a losing game of a total 27 games i played and all hit profit target! Damn I just don't believe it! I thought maybe because of 6 decks that the casino used made the differenece.
So today I took my own 8 decks and played the system and it's a 3 out of 3 games winner, by following the system to the letter. Anyone here have any feedback on testing this system?
I won 67000 this past weekend. 13 shoes and not a loser. betting 500-2k/hand....ty for alerting me to this system
been testing it flat betting and it is winning----lets see what more testing shows
Quote from: super6 on May 18, 2015, 03:04:19 PM
For 3 days I played online in Celtic Casino using practice money and there was'nt a losing game of a total 27 games i played and all hit profit target! Damn I just don't believe it! I thought maybe because of 6 decks that the casino used made the differenece.
So today I took my own 8 decks and played the system and it's a 3 out of 3 games winner, by following the system to the letter. Anyone here have any feedback on testing this system?
For fun so did i back track the march.
I follow all rules and wrote the losing bet for each rule to see the losing sequense/pattern.
It is pretty rare to hit 9 players and have the same probability as any other combination, for example the march.
I test some session and won, the Regression Up & Pull is very effective.
Some time you win and lose and win and lose going zig zag - then you win using the Regression Up & Pull.
So there is two winning streams and one recovery stream.
The betting sequense 2121212121
W +2
L +1
W +3
L +2
W +4
L +3
W +5
L +4
W +6
L +5
Quote from: WorldBaccaratKing on May 18, 2015, 03:13:16 PM
I won 67000 this past weekend. 13 shoes and not a loser. betting 500-2k/hand....ty for alerting me to this system
Hey WBK, I'm just sharing my test results to anyone who's interested in looking further at this system. Obviously there are some people here have interest in this system, otherwise the thread won't get so much postings. And by sharing my test results, perhaps it could prompt them to explore it further. I got nothing to gain. I'm not selling the system. Its available free on the internet. Just because no one wants to spoonfeed you on how to play the system, you became sarcastic and negative. Hahaha, good luck to you. Get a life!
Quote from: super6 on May 18, 2015, 03:35:35 PM
Hey WBK, I'm just sharing my test results to anyone who's interested in looking further at this system. Obviously there are some people here have interest in this system, otherwise the thread won't get so much postings. And by sharing my test results, perhaps it could prompt them to explore it further. I got nothing to gain. I'm not selling the system. Its available free on the internet. Just because no one wants to spoonfeed you on how to play the system, you became sarcastic and negative. Hahaha, good luck to you. Get a life!
Sarcastic? I studied the pdf friday night for like 4 hours and played saturday and sunday. I have a casino 10 minutes from my house! I said ty for alerting me to this system. Until I read it and understood it, I thought it was stuff...The green I won changed my mind!
Quote from: WorldBaccaratKing on May 18, 2015, 03:48:02 PM
Sarcastic? I studied the pdf friday night for like 4 hours and played saturday and sunday. I have a casino 10 minutes from my house! I said ty for alerting me to this system. Until I read it and understood it, I thought it was stuff...The green I won changed my mind!
Oh pardon me WBK if I misinterpret your post. You see, English is not my mother tongue. I thought you're being sarcastic when you said you won 67000 ( I presumed it is $ ) by betting 500 to 2000. I mean I thought who would be betting that kind of money on a system that one has not even tested and tried. So I thought you're just poking fun at my post.
Good for you, if you really did win that much. If I were you, I would'nt bet my whole life on this system, coz it'll get at you once in awhile. I remember 3 years ago I played in Dublinbet, I got busted a few times. But for the last 3 days it was just unbelievale at Celtic Casino - no loss for 27 games! Can you imagine, it's like too good to be true, so I test it using my own 8 decks, and it's the same story. Very promising indeed
Quote from: WorldBaccaratKing on May 18, 2015, 11:42:25 AM
there was switches and it tells you how long to play each and when to switch back
Looked over it again, and it seems like a long-handed way of saying TBL bet selection. Here is one way to tell, as I have not played it. Is the nemesis of the bet selection back to back two's? Such as BB,PP,BB? If so then it is indeed Time b4 last bet selection. Which means you will catch every straight run of singles, BPBPBP etc and every streak of 3 or more in a row bbb or ppp and beyond.
The 2 scenarios that cause TBL to break down are the two's bbppbb (loses EVERY bet) and the one-two's i.e. b,pp,b,pp (which will lose 2 bets and win 1 for as long as the sequence continues)This is the quick way of determining. If it is not breaking down in these scenarios, I will have to re-check myself.
Congratulations on your wins!
This is how it looks like if you back track the march or algorithm - the rules.
P
P (L) A1 which Always play opposite.
B (L) A2 bet same side as A1 if A1 bet lose.
B (L) B1 bet opposite as A2 bet if A2 bet lose.
P (L) B2 bet is same as B1 bet.
P (L) B3 bet is same as B1 Bet.
P (L) A1 bet is opposite and we start over from losing B3 bet.
B (L) A2 bet same side as A1 if A1 bet lose.
B (L) B1 bet opposite as A2 bet if A2 bet lose.
P (L) B2 bet is same as B1
P (L) B3 bet is same as B1
Quote from: Sputnik on May 18, 2015, 06:41:47 PM
This is how it looks like if you back track the march or algorithm - the rules.
P
P (L) A1 which Always play opposite.
B (L) A2 bet same side as A1 if A1 bet lose.
B (L) B1 bet opposite as A2 bet if A2 bet lose.
P (L) B2 bet is same as B1 bet.
P (L) B3 bet is same as B1 Bet.
P (L) A1 bet is opposite and we start over from losing B3 bet.
B (L) A2 bet same side as A1 if A1 bet lose.
B (L) B1 bet opposite as A2 bet if A2 bet lose.
P (L) B2 bet is same as B1
P (L) B3 bet is same as B1
thanks sputnik
b
b a1 bet p L
p a2 bet p w
do I bet b here as the a1 bet?
im testing this one way a friend is testing another way:)
Tomla, your question wasn't addressed to me but, I think you place your next bet, an A-1 bet, on P side your winning side. Page 49, Rule 3.
I can't see how a person can use this as written due to, in most BM casinos, your bet must be rounded up to the nearest $5 amount due to commissions on banker wins. Online may be another story playing on a dollar table.
Quote from: ezmark on May 18, 2015, 09:24:43 PM
I can't see how a person can use this as written due to, in most BM casinos, your bet must be rounded up to the nearest $5 amount due to commissions on banker wins. Online may be another story playing on a dollar table.
depends on what your unit size is....Most bet 25 or more a hand...
Quote from: ezmark on May 18, 2015, 09:12:40 PM
Tomla, your question wasn't addressed to me but, I think you place your next bet, an A-1 bet, on P side your winning side. Page 49, Rule 3.
Yes, the rule is if the 2's ( A2, B2 ) wins the bet, the next bet would progress down to the !'s ( A1, B1 ), and it is to bet on the same side you just won. This also applies to B2 and B3.
If the 1's win ( A1, B1 ) then the next bet is betting opposites of what just won.
In this system, recording of your bets sequentially and down to the pat according to the bet tracker ( scorecard ) is of utmost importance. Especially important is to keep track of the modes - trigger, attack and retrench so you'll know what is the next bet.
Finally took out the BAT book I bought and studied it through the weekend. Going on a cruise ship this Thursday (Superstar Libra) to try it out.
Just wondering if the bet sequence by Sputnik is correct? From what I understand it's not.
Quote from: Lung Yeh on May 18, 2015, 11:41:04 PM
Finally took out the BAT book I bought and studied it through the weekend. Going on a cruise ship this Thursday (Superstar Libra) to try it out.
Just wondering if the bet sequence by Sputnik is correct? From what I understand it's not.
To all,
Go through the rules and instead of A this and B that, simplify it......Grab a sample scorecard, write P or B and write (O) opposite or (R) repeat. This will make things "clearer" and easier to read. Otherwise, you may lose some hair.........
B
B
B
P
P
P
B
B
P
P
When you have cluster results such as above the BAT will be hit badly. So we have to be alert to such trends. Just want to be sure. Any opinions anyone?
B
B P L A1
B P L A2
P B L B1
P B L B2
P B L B3
P B L A1
P B L A2
B P L B1
B P L B2
B P L B3
B P L A1
and so on.......
All bet selections will lose at 1.15%, flat betting, and this bet selection is no exception.
If B-3 wins you drop back to B-2 betting the same bet. So if B-3 loses I presume it is logical to go to A-1 betting the opposite of the B-3 bet? I don't see any example in the book. It just states if B-3 loses start over with an A-1 bet.
But if say B level bet is P and B-3 loses it means the result is a B. So A-1 should be a P which is the same as the B-3 bet.
How?
I note from Sample Game 3 (rounds 9 & 10) that B-3 bet is B and loses. The next bet is A-1 but on P.
Quote from: Lung Yeh on May 19, 2015, 08:39:56 AM
If B-3 wins you drop back to B-2 betting the same bet. So if B-3 loses I presume it is logical to go to A-1 betting the opposite of the B-3 bet? I don't see any example in the book. It just states if B-3 loses start over with an A-1 bet.
But if say B level bet is P and B-3 loses it means the result is a B. So A-1 should be a P which is the same as the B-3 bet.
How?
I will try to answer you Yung. When you are switching templates, from A to B and vice versa, for your next bet you always
bet the opposite of your previous losing bet. In the example above, your B3 bet is on player, and it loses, so you move to A1 by betting banker.
Well I should'nt say previous losing bet. It should be your previous wager, whether win or lose. In my previous post to Lung, it particularly refers to his losing wager.
One point to know here is if, you're on the retrenchment B mode and let's say you won B3 and then won B2 simultaneously, you should jump right back to A1, instead of going to B1 for your next bet. So if your B2 bet is banker, your next A1 bet should be player
Here is the rules and feel free to check my example above - its 100% correct.
But if you win one bet, then the chain of the betting march change, so it would not be the same pattern.
My example just show what happens if you lose all 10 bets from the beginning.
Summary of Making A Template Bets:
1. Before starting to bet always observe one decision. You will always begin betting by making an A-1 pattern bet, which is always the opposite of the previous winner. If you observe B as a winner, your A-1 bet will be on P.
2. Any time an A-1 bet wins, your next bet will also be an A-1 level bet and will follow the same rules, that it, you will always bet the opposite of the previous winning decision. If you observe P as a winner, your A-1 bet will be on B.
3. If an A-1 bet loses, the next bet will be an A-2 level bet. This bet will be on the same side as the A-1 bet. If you lose an A-1 bet on P, your A-2 bet will be on P.
4. If an A-2 bet wins, your next wager will be an A-1 bet on the same side as the A-2 bet. If you win an A-2 bet on P, your A-1 bet will be on P.
5. If you lose an A-2 bet, you will begin betting in the B Template.
There are just two betting templates – the A Template and the B Template. The A Template always consists of just two levels of bets – A-1 and A-2. Any time we lose an A-2 bet, we start making B Template bets.
B Template bets consist of three levels of bets – B-1, B-2 and B-3. B-1 bets are always the opposite of the losing previous A-2 bet. B-2 and B-3 bets are always the same as the B-1 wager.
Any time we win two B Template bets in a row, we will have finished this betting level and we will start with an A-1 level bet again. However, we will give ourselves up to three levels of betting at the B Template level.
If the B-1 bet loses, go to the B-2 bet and wager on the same side as B-1
If the B-1 wins, start over with an A-1 bet.
If the B-2 bet loses, go the B-3 bet and wager on the same side as B-1 and B-2.
If the B-2 bet wins, go to the B-1 level.
If the B-3 bet loses, start over with an A-1 bet.
If the B-3 bet wins, drop back to a B-2 bet made on the same side as the B-3 bet.
I have modified my earlier Table. The corrected Table is given below:
B
B P L A1
B P L A2
P B L B1
P B L B2
P B L B3
B P L A1
B P L A2
P B L B1
P B L B2
P B L B3
B P L A1
and so on
Some one can use Another march with same probability.
As all patterns and combinations has the same odds.
How about 2 x wrangler march.
The Wrangler strategy or Wrangler march resembles a little of the avant - dernier, the bet on the next to the last spin. However the Wrangler march has a much higher effectivity because the hostile figure, the series of 2 is softened in its negative impact.
Using the Wrangler march you bet on the last come chance until two consecutive losses. Then you switch to betting on the opposite chance. There is one single exception: after two isolated consecutive series of 2 you bet up to three consecutive losses !
Long alternating series of 2 are neutralized by this procedure.
From the following example, the march should become clear:
(http://i61.tinypic.com/2ij26ix.jpg)
Surely a good progression can be combined with this march. The inventor of this march made high profits in Monte Carlo in the nineteenthirties.
Intereting Sputnik. But what about the bet amount progression or regression?
I find the rules for the trigger bet and regression and recovery be fine, so i would not change them.
I am just saying that for example 9 players has the same probability as any other existing pattern.
So it does not matter what march you use - the odds will be the same.
Quote from: Sputnik on May 19, 2015, 11:03:36 AM
Some one can use Another march with same probability.
As all patterns and combinations has the same odds.
How about 2 x wrangler march.
The Wrangler strategy or Wrangler march resembles a little of the avant - dernier, the bet on the next to the last spin. However the Wrangler march has a much higher effectivity because the hostile figure, the series of 2 is softened in its negative impact.
Using the Wrangler march you bet on the last come chance until two consecutive losses. Then you switch to betting on the opposite chance. There is one single exception: after two isolated consecutive series of 2 you bet up to three consecutive losses !
Long alternating series of 2 are neutralized by this procedure.
From the following example, the march should become clear:
(http://i61.tinypic.com/2ij26ix.jpg)
Surely a good progression can be combined with this march. The inventor of this march made high profits in Monte Carlo in the nineteenthirties.
i actually like this, thanks for posting!
I test the wrangler march to get the feel of it - looks pretty good.
1
2 L
1 W
1 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
1 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
2 L
1 W
2 L
2 L
2 W
1 L
1 L
2 W
2 W
1 L
1 L
2 W
2 W
2 W
2 W
1 L
1 L
1 W
2 L
1 W
1 W
1 W
2 L
1 W
1 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
2 L
2 L
2 L
1 W
2 L
1 W
1 W
1 W
2 L
1 W
1 W
1 W
1 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
1 W
2 L
2 L
2 L
1 W
1 W
2 L
1 W
1 W
1 W
2 L
1 W
1 W
1 W
1 W
2 L
2 L
2 W
2 W
2 W
1 L
1 L
2 W
1 L
2 W
2 W
1 L
1 L
1 L
2 W
2 W
2 W
1 L
1 L
2 W
1 L
1 L
2 W
2 W
2 W
1 L
1 L
2 W
2 W
2 W
2 W
2 W
2 W
2 W
1 L
2 W
1 L
1 L
1 W
encourage people to test it with various progressions,, the bet selection is good and has won some shoes flat betting...The as written progression is pretty cool also but the amounts bet would discourage a lot of players... Overall Im glad I learned this one I might play it in a casino soon
So what eactly is this thread? BAT or WM ? ;D ???
baccarat attack includes two things ,,, a bet selection and a progression ---this is a discussion about both.
Hi Jimskie, gr8player perfectly answered for me.
I add some thoughts.
91.4% of the times we are playing pure coin flip successions, the rest is composed by hands where one side has a 15.86% advantage over the other one.
Hence over 9 times over 10 we are tossing a coin and in the history of gambling there aren't reports that a coin flip game could be beaten in the long run (at least practically speaking as, yes, an other than infinite martingale might have the best of it). Let alone continuosly trying to catch that 8.6% where B is hugely favorite without some statistical evidences.
The problem to try to "control" hand by hand a mostly coin flip game is that in the short run we cannot have any hint about the direction one shoe will take. That means we're expecting the most impact of the variance.
To confirm this, we can run thousands and thousands of shoes taking the P singles as our main target.
It's mathematically and statistically certain that itlr P singles will surpass the amount of P streaks, nevertheless an approach based on such sure finding will encounter the heat of the variance. No matter how good and sophisticated will be our progression.
And I'm talking about the most likely simple event any baccarat game in the world will show in the long run.
Hence, imo, we must restrict our field of operations, let that 8.6% will properly be working.
We must bear the least variance weight even if our method cannot win by flat betting.
And that means to wait favourable opportunities, to let some hands go, many times to let some shoes go.
If the P single occurence is the more likely event to happen, it means that clusters of 2+ P singles are greater than P isolated singles. Sure as hell. Same stuff applies on superior clustered events.
When?
We don't know.
But we do know that the expected ratio will be a given number. And more importantly we do know that differently to "any P single" searched, the clustered P singles searched opposed to isolated P singles will bear a NOT proportionally weight of the variance. Now this has a quite less impact.
Is this sufficient to set up a winning play?
Nope, but it helps.
To reduce variance.
I'm not going to stubbornly looking for P singles when the actual shoe is producing many P streaks.
Nevertheless, the vast majority of shoes will form a lot of P singles and not a lot of P streaks.
In the long run.
Curiously, long run works for casinos and short runs for players. We have to invert this assumption, as they want us to play every f single hand any shoe will produce.
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 19, 2015, 09:24:14 PM
Hi Jimskie, gr8player perfectly answered for me.
I add some thoughts.
91.4% of the times we are playing pure coin flip successions, the rest is composed by hands where one side has a 15.86% advantage over the other one.
Hence over 9 times over 10 we are tossing a coin and in the history of gambling there aren't reports that a coin flip game could be beaten in the long run (at least practically speaking as, yes, an other than infinite martingale might have the best of it). Let alone continuosly trying to catch that 8.6% where B is hugely favorite without some statistical evidences.
The problem to try to "control" hand by hand a mostly coin flip game is that in the short run we cannot have any hint about the direction one shoe will take. That means we're expecting the most impact of the variance.
To confirm this, we can run thousands and thousands of shoes taking the P singles as our main target.
It's mathematically and statistically certain that itlr P singles will surpass the amount of P streaks, nevertheless an approach based on such sure finding will encounter the heat of the variance. No matter how good and sophisticated will be our progression.
And I'm talking about the most likely simple event any baccarat game in the world will show in the long run.
Hence, imo, we must restrict our field of operations, let that 8.6% will properly be working.
We must bear the least variance weight even if our method cannot win by flat betting.
And that means to wait favourable opportunities, to let some hands go, many times to let some shoes go.
If the P single occurence is the more likely event to happen, it means that clusters of 2+ P singles are greater than P isolated singles. Sure as hell. Same stuff applies on superior clustered events.
When?
We don't know.
But we do know that the expected ratio will be a given number. And more importantly we do know that differently to "any P single" searched, the clustered P singles searched opposed to isolated P singles will bear a NOT proportionally weight of the variance. Now this has a quite less impact.
Is this sufficient to set up a winning play?
Nope, but it helps.
To reduce variance.
I'm not going to stubbornly looking for P singles when the actual shoe is producing many P streaks.
Nevertheless, the vast majority of shoes will form a lot of P singles and not a lot of P streaks.
In the long run.
Curiously, long run works for casinos and short runs for players. We have to invert this assumption, as they want us to play every f single hand any shoe will produce.
as.
And your point is?
So in the BAT, it is said that we should only bet around 20-25 rounds per game . Each shoe is normally @70-75 round. Can we rest awhile after each game and start a new game within each shoe so that in a shoe we can actually play 2-3 games?
Or are we supposed to have the shoe reshuffled or move on to another table....doesn't make sense to me
My point, super6, is to wait some favourable circumstances where any progression could work as it is statistically player's shifted.
Not meaning that such progression can invert the negative edge by itself, instead it will work because we know that certain expected events cannot be delayed for long periods. They are due.
The like the house edge will be due in the long period.
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 20, 2015, 01:13:16 AM
My point, super6, is to wait some favourable circumstances where any progression could work as it is statistically player's shifted.
Not meaning that such progression can invert the negative edge by itself, instead it will work because we know that certain expected events cannot be delayed for long periods. They are due.
The like the house edge will be due in the long period.
as.
Tks ASG. As you mentioned earlier that 91.4% of the times we're playing pure coin flips successions, so why do we have to wait for favorable circumstances. Sorry my understanding of English is not too good as to fully understand your post coz English is not my mother tongue. Are you able to guess when is the favourable condition when we are betting with a coin flip decision. So in theory, you can bet everyhand as it is a coin flip, but hopefully the money management progression/regression will take care of the rest.
I think this thread is about the merits of the BAT. The system is just to make 10 times your base bet as the profit target in a shoe that one plays in. You can play 1 shoe, 3 shoes or 10 shoes a day, but the target is still the same. I am sharing my experience with my live plays and tests of this systems, and I can share that there is tremendous success thus far, if you follow the system to the dot. Trying to chop it down, analyse and tweak may not work to achieve the purpose imho
Super6, friend. So do you do 2-3 games per shoe since each shoe can support 70-75 hands and the BAT suggests to bet only 20-25 rounds per game?
Hi super8.
Thanks for your kind response.
What I wanted to say is that baccarat presents many successful situations where you'll have an edge just by flat betting.
And in the worst case you'll reduce the variance to the least.
I don't want to fall into the variance issues, I don't want to bet 25 or 30 or more x standard bet into a mostly coin flip situation, not mentioning that too many times we're getting the wrong side of our bets.
Soon or later any progression will fall into a deep negative period that will destroy every previous winnings (and some more).
I tested several methods having the best of it after 10.000 or 20.000 shoes then invariably crashing.
It's a natural thing: such 10k or 20k shoes had shown a slight propensity to one side or to arrange some events in an unlikely order capable to erase the proportional counterpart parts.
That's why I don't think this system will get the best of it itlr.
as.
Quote from: Lung Yeh on May 20, 2015, 01:09:35 AM
So in the BAT, it is said that we should only bet around 20-25 rounds per game . Each shoe is normally @70-75 round. Can we rest awhile after each game and start a new game within each shoe so that in a shoe we can actually play 2-3 games?
Or are we supposed to have the shoe reshuffled or move on to another table....doesn't make sense to me
Right, it's just hands per hour. No good reason not to re-start a new game within the same shoe.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 20, 2015, 01:13:16 AM
My point, super6, is to wait some favourable circumstances where any progression could work as it is statistically player's shifted.
Not meaning that such progression can invert the negative edge by itself, instead it will work because we know that certain expected events cannot be delayed for long periods. They are due.
The like the house edge will be due in the long period.
as.
Actually to cut to the chase super6, his and Gr8's point was, is and always will be that one can predict favorable positions within a shoe to gain an advantage. Of course that begs the question: It's a claim that goes nowhere.
J
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 20, 2015, 02:10:31 AM
Soon or later any progression will fall into a deep negative period that will destroy every previous winnings (and some more).
That is nonsense, hey hey.
Quote from: soxfan on May 20, 2015, 02:49:32 AM
That is nonsense, hey hey.
Yep, history taught us that progressions made thousands of millionares, hey hey.
We hope casinos won't read this. Cross the fingers.
SSshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
as.
Quote from: Jimske on May 20, 2015, 02:41:57 AM
Actually to cut to the chase super6, his and Gr8's point was, is and always will be that one can predict favorable positions within a shoe to gain an advantage. Of course that begs the question: It's a claim that goes nowhere.
J
LOL.
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 20, 2015, 03:31:24 AM
Yep, history taught us that progressions made thousands of millionares, hey hey.
We hope casinos won't read this. Cross the fingers.
SSshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
as.
You always seem to have all the answers but never post what it is you do to make money?
What triggers do you use?
What bet placements?
You like to talk, that's about all I will give you..............
Quote from: Lung Yeh on May 20, 2015, 01:56:11 AM
Super6, friend. So do you do 2-3 games per shoe since each shoe can support 70-75 hands and the BAT suggests to bet only 20-25 rounds per game?
Lung - I start from the beginning of a shoe, enter trigger bet around the 3rd or 4th hand and begins the betting from there onwards, nonstop, until the profit target of 10 times the base bet is met. Most of the times reach profit target around 20 plus or less hands. Sometimes could go up to 30plus to worst case scenarios 40 plus hands to reach target. Of course, these are practice, games. In real life I don't think I will played up till 40 plus hands just to make the profit. In this case, it's a real struggle after 20 plus hands and still can't make the profit, then i will stop betting and take whatever is on the table and run.
I have tried entering mid-shoe, and its still workable, provided still have enough hands left to be dealt, but I like to start from fresh shoes. Once hit profit, stop and wait for new shoe to begin. If the casino you play in has got small minimum stake tables, it would be a good chance for you to play for trials in the beginning.
i attached a simple excel file of the tests results I did on Celtic Casino over 3 to 4 days which I told you guys about. And it did not get busted. Now I am testing on DublinBet and also on my own 8 decks cards. It got busted once during the 8th deck test. Otherwise holding up quite well.
Hey , just to show you my Celtic Account as of the last game played during the test
King, Sir. WBK, yr winnings at BAT of 67k in a land casino right? Works well? Any losses at all? Just skeptical about simulated results of online casino.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 20, 2015, 03:32:36 AM
LOL.
as.
It is funny that's for sure. The diff between you and Gr8 is that you have only found 1 or 2 bets per hundred that give an advantage while Gr8 has found many many more. Don't know how many times he bets a shoe. He hasn't said but apparently he is reducing variance by predicting a lot more of those advantage hands to get a 54% win rate. Is that net? Gross? He doesn't say.
Don't get me wrong, I don't doubt it. I have already posted my "variance" for thousands of live bet hands. Neither one of you have done even that.
J
Just a quick question which some of you may be able to help with. I started using the system but was only playing in bet Victor's casino and paddy powers casino. Both were the games which I presume use a random number generator that deals the cards. It started quite well with just one loss in the first 10 games but by about the 25 game mark I lost another 4 banks. To be honest I am a bit suspicious of the casinos that use the cartoon type of table games with the RNG card selector. My question is where do you guys play and do you play the live games or the simulated ones? My question is mostly directed at super8 who seems to be having the most success with this system. I just joined Dublin bet but the live table that I looked at seems to be dealt a bit too fast to be able to place my bets in time. I have also read that some of you play at the Celtic casino so could you give me a clue as to which other casinos are reputable and also which type of games you play, live ones or the simulation ones? Thanks in advance
Quote from: super6 on May 20, 2015, 05:07:33 AM
Lung - I start from the beginning of a shoe, enter trigger bet around the 3rd or 4th hand and begins the betting from there onwards, nonstop, until the profit target of 10 times the base bet is met. Most of the times reach profit target around 20 plus or less hands. Sometimes could go up to 30plus to worst case scenarios 40 plus hands to reach target. Of course, these are practice, games. In real life I don't think I will played up till 40 plus hands just to make the profit. In this case, it's a real struggle after 20 plus hands and still can't make the profit, then i will stop betting and take whatever is on the table and run.
I have tried entering mid-shoe, and its still workable, provided still have enough hands left to be dealt, but I like to start from fresh shoes. Once hit profit, stop and wait for new shoe to begin. If the casino you play in has got small minimum stake tables, it would be a good chance for you to play for trials in the beginning.
i attached a simple excel file of the tests results I did on Celtic Casino over 3 to 4 days which I told you guys about. And it did not get busted. Now I am testing on DublinBet and also on my own 8 decks cards. It got busted once during the 8th deck test. Otherwise holding up quite well.
Good win even if it is practice. What strikes me is that out of 30 shoes is you got to a Ret 6 times where you went 6 and 7 deep (I didn't count the 5's) and still hit your profit goal. If I read the manual correctly that means you at least won 2 out of 3 of the next bets every time you reached those levels. Otherwise you would hit your bust out point.
Given the number of times we hit 6, 7 and 8 losses IAR not to mention the times we will L 4, W1, L3 or 4 etc. It seems to me we will bust out on average about one time out of 8 sessions. What's our Bust out? $2,025.00 ?? So just to break even we need approx. a 10:1 win to bust out ratio.
Can you go 30 shoes without a bust out? Sure. But then they are due. I got a set of 25 I fool around with which would lose 7 or more IAR 3 times. Even though the shoes end up with a 50.8% win rate.
Summary for me is I don't see this as a viable method.
Quote from: WorldBaccaratKing on May 20, 2015, 03:35:23 AM
You always seem to have all the answers but never post what it is you do to make money?
What triggers do you use?
What bet placements?
You like to talk, that's about all I will give you..............
Semyon Dukach, my hero, talked about the importance to sharing the ideas to beat the casinos.
We'll be glad to put in print our ideas to beat this wonderful game, let give us the time to sign the contract. :)
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 20, 2015, 10:29:53 PM
Semyon Dukach, my hero, talked about the importance to sharing the ideas to beat the casinos.
We'll be glad to put in print our ideas to beat this wonderful game, let give us the time to sign the contract. :)
as.
Are you related to the garnabby, hey hey??????????????
Soxfan, who is this garnabby?
as.
Bull 81 - In my opinion it's not advisable to play or practice in online casinos that use RNG. Too many negative talks about using this. So far I play other methods with real money only in Dublinbet and practice BAT in mainly Celtic Casino; and I also practice in Dublin and my own 8 deck cards. Yes, I agree Dublinbet is super quick, so you have to be fast in placing the bets. They have proven to be reliable to me, as I been using them for the past 2 years; no problem with deposits and withdrawals. If you want to practice BAT not advisable to do it in Dublin. I usually choose the time to play there ( around 10pm, Irish time onwards ), when the casino players start crowding the table. that's when the game will be slowed down somewhat.
Jimske - my opnion:
The hit rate is quite high, and it will win more than it loses, unless one got busted a couple of games from the getgo. Yes, theoretically the bust rate is $2025 for a $25 bet, but there will be some accumulated wins along the way to cushion the onslaught of losing bets as it come along further down the road. Unless of course the player went into a tailspin of losing 7 to 8 bets in a row. Anyway, as I had mentioned, one also has to decide if the game is going on smoothly or not. There were a couple of games in my table that went to high 30's and even 40's bets. In this scenario, I would have decide to abandon ship and take or give away whatever is left on the table and run to another table. Also one can tweak the money management to his own comfort level to approach this game. The mm in BAT is rather aggressive ensuring quick success. that's why it stress so much on per hour wins. Having said that, Mr Greg Fletcher recommended in the manual to have a total bankroll of 5 times the game bankroll - page 75.
Please note that I am not endorsing this method, but just sharing with members my take on this system. I mentioned earlier in the thread I'd played it live with real money before - only 4 games, and all 4 games were a winner, but the casino increase table minimum, so I stop and left it on the shelf. I like the bet selection - it has a little bit each of streak, otbl, pitboss or whatever one wants to call it, and it absolutely kills choppy shoe
That's my take and 2 cts
Quote from: super6 on May 20, 2015, 11:36:20 PM
Bull 81 - In my opinion it's not advisable to play or practice in online casinos that use RNG. Too many negative talks about using this. So far I play other methods with real money only in Dublinbet and practice BAT in mainly Celtic Casino; and I also practice in Dublin and my own 8 deck cards. Yes, I agree Dublinbet is super quick, so you have to be fast in placing the bets. They have proven to be reliable to me, as I been using them for the past 2 years; no problem with deposits and withdrawals. If you want to practice BAT not advisable to do it in Dublin. I usually choose the time to play there ( around 10pm, Irish time onwards ), when the casino players start crowding the table. that's when the game will be slowed down somewhat.
Jimske - my opnion:
The hit rate is quite high, and it will win more than it loses, unless one got busted a couple of games from the getgo. Yes, theoretically the bust rate is $2025 for a $25 bet, but there will be some accumulated wins along the way to cushion the onslaught of losing bets as it come along further down the road. Unless of course the player went into a tailspin of losing 7 to 8 bets in a row. Anyway, as I had mentioned, one also has to decide if the game is going on smoothly or not. There were a couple of games in my table that went to high 30's and even 40's bets. In this scenario, I would have decide to abandon ship and take or give away whatever is left on the table and run to another table. Also one can tweak the money management to his own comfort level to approach this game. The mm in BAT is rather aggressive ensuring quick success. that's why it stress so much on per hour wins. Having said that, Mr Greg Fletcher recommended in the manual to have a total bankroll of 5 times the game bankroll - page 75.
Please note that I am not endorsing this method, but just sharing with members my take on this system. I mentioned earlier in the thread I'd played it live with real money before - only 4 games, and all 4 games were a winner, but the casino increase table minimum, so I stop and left it on the shelf. I like the bet selection - it has a little bit each of streak, otbl, pitboss or whatever one wants to call it, and it absolutely kills choppy shoe
That's my take and 2 cts
Yes, thanks. An aggressive recoup will definitely win a lot of shoes. One can always introduce money management to reduce escalation and losses but that reduces profits at the same time. If we can reduce losses by just a little then we have a fighting chance. The occasional bust outs and commission will reduce our hourly win substantially. I'm sure many will win with this before they get big draw downs. That's the nature of the game. All in all the method seems to be worthwhile if one can grind up enough units to offset future bust outs. No guarantees.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 20, 2015, 10:29:53 PM
Semyon Dukach, my hero, talked about the importance to sharing the ideas to beat the casinos.
We'll be glad to put in print our ideas to beat this wonderful game, let give us the time to sign the contract. :)
as
"let give us the time to sign the contract" huh? I still think that English is your second language. But go ahead and post the contract so we can see what it is exactly you are proposing. Perhaps you could start a new thread?
So...has anyone modified the Retrenchment betting series, a different progression or tested just flat betting with a comparable success rate? I was looking to lower the game bankroll if possible without destroying positive results naturally.
I have tested about 200 actual land-based recorded shoes with an amazing 93% shoe win rate (Profit Target of 10X Base Bet). I set NO absolute starting point in a shoe. I chose to just "jump in" at random or start at the beginning of an eight deck shoe. Once I hit a Profit Target in a particular shoe, I am DONE and on to another shoe. NO long hanging on or attempting to maximize a shoe Profit Target...just move on to the next.
I attempted to mimic my usual land-based casino style, of just walking up to any random table and starting play whether it was in mid-shoe or a new shoe.
ty in advance
stratocasterman
did you get your 93% with the retrenchment progression that greg uses or with another progression?
Quote from: stratocasterman on May 21, 2015, 04:34:00 AM
So...has anyone modified the Retrenchment betting series, a different progression or tested just flat betting with a comparable success rate? I was looking to lower the game bankroll if possible without destroying positive results naturally.
I have tested about 200 actual land-based recorded shoes with an amazing 93% shoe win rate (Profit Target of 10X Base Bet). I set NO absolute starting point in a shoe. I chose to just "jump in" at random or start at the beginning of an eight deck shoe. Once I hit a Profit Target in a particular shoe, I am DONE and on to another shoe. NO long hanging on or attempting to maximize a shoe Profit Target...just move on to the next.
I attempted to mimic my usual land-based casino style, of just walking up to any random table and starting play whether it was in mid-shoe or a new shoe.
ty in advance
what was your profit target per shoe?
I have been testing the BAT with different approch.
I use the Wrangler March.
Regression up & pull and trigger bet and fibo for recovery.
Same principal.
Quote from: Sputnik on May 21, 2015, 08:00:17 PM
I have been testing the BAT with different approch.
I use the Wrangler March.
Regression up & pull and trigger bet and fibo for recovery.
Same principal.
could you show an example? thanks
Quote from: Jimske on May 21, 2015, 01:02:17 AM
"let give us the time to sign the contract" huh? I still think that English is your second language. But go ahead and post the contract so we can see what it is exactly you are proposing. Perhaps you could start a new thread?
Sigh, I apologize. I'm the worst english writer in the world. [smiley]aes/sad.png[/smiley].
Contract? It's all about a simple book, do you want to know the details about a private agreement? :)
About the G.F. method.
Utilizing a total different (and quite rarer) bet selection, it works wonderfully. As any other progression linked to a method capable to bear very low degrees of variance.
Anyway this one has some merits.
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 21, 2015, 08:48:53 PM
Sigh, I apologize. I'm the worst english writer in the world. [smiley]aes/sad.png[/smiley].
No need to apologize. I'm not criticizing just making an observation. I don't write that well myself and English is my only fluent language.
QuoteContract? It's all about a simple book, do you want to know the details about a private agreement? :)
Sure. As I wrote earlier - go ahead and post the details. I'm all ears.
QuoteAbout the G.F. method.
Utilizing a total different (and quite rarer) bet selection, it works wonderfully. As any other progression linked to a method capable to bear very low degrees of variance.
Anyway this one has some merits.
as.
Rarer bet selection? The presumption is that one has exhausted all bet selections. Quite a statement. But yes, BAT does seem to ahve some merits. Particularly fi the LIAR can be reduced through a selection process.
The success of progressions are all about LIAR. If one can reduce the expected LIAR, even by a small amount, one can legitimately say that one has reduced variance. Agreed?
J
Hohoho!!. First bust of the day in the practice shoes. Yesterday played 2 shoes in succession, first shoe got a quick hit of profits in 9 hands and the next played till busted. However, in the game there was a point where there was profit. In real life I would have take that and run. I attached the scoresheet of the 2 games played for you to digest. Good luck.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 20, 2015, 10:47:19 PM
Soxfan, who is this garnabby?
as.
The garnabby is a wild and strange cat that also like to talk in riddle, hey hey.
Quote from: soxfan on May 22, 2015, 12:16:29 AM
The garnabby is a wild and strange cat that also like to talk in riddle, hey hey.
Ok I got it, but Semyon doesn't belong to such category.
Semyon Dukach was one of the two most successful MIT members who punished many casinos around the world. The very best gambling effort in the hystory of gambling to fk the casinos.
I like to quote his words:
If someone had told me that a few years ago that one day I would be revealing the techinques we used against the casinos to the public, I would have beeen taken it as a serious insult. For me and my teammates, beating the casinos has never been entirely about the money. Of course the money was important, and on the surface, the whole enterprise may have been resembled a kind of crazy financial start-up on steroids, but anyone looking deeper would have seen that for us, the blackjack team was not a business, but a passionate, desperate struggle against the mighty evil empire that was and continues to be the casino industry.
And:
Share them (your techniques) with others, post them on a blog, or write your own book. Because it's not just about how much you win, it's also about how much they lose!
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 22, 2015, 01:09:43 AM
Ok I got it, but Semyon doesn't belong to such category.
Semyon Dukach was one of the two most successful MIT members who punished many casinos around the world. The very best gambling effort in the hystory of gambling to fk the casinos.
I like to quote his words:
If someone had told me that a few years ago that one day I would be revealing the techinques we used against the casinos to the public, I would have beeen taken it as a serious insult. For me and my teammates, beating the casinos has never been entirely about the money. Of course the money was important, and on the surface, the whole enterprise may have been resembled a kind of crazy financial start-up on steroids, but anyone looking deeper would have seen that for us, the blackjack team was not a business, but a passionate, desperate struggle against the mighty evil empire that was and continues to be the casino industry.
And:
Share them (your techniques) with others, post them on a blog, or write your own book. Because it's not just about how much you win, it's also about how much they lose!
as.
Yes, but the MIT team was down about a million bucks at one point despite their "edge". Of course I agree that casino are greedy, scumbag entity so I hope that lotsa cats manage to win well, and regular, hey hey.
Yes soxfan.
But at the end they were huge winners.
About casinos, I agree: they hugely comp us, they kindly greet us, they entice our play as they know that soon or later we'll go broke.
And whenever they suffer a transitory loss they are whining and whining and hoping the fortunate(s) will be back right on their premise.
At a high limit room, I recently witnessed an asian girl betting the maximum on tie bet, winning some consecutive bets in a very short period.
Casino personnel went wild, just as such circumstances weren't allowed by mathematics.
I'm talking about a more than 600k winning on just 6-7 hands.
What?
Are you complaining such a loss knowing you get an over 14% advantage on those bets?
Well, you (casinos) deserved to be punished.
Spectacular thing to notice is the girl didn't tip the dealers a f cent.
One more hero adding to my list.
@Jimskie: look on the blogosphere section of this site.
as.
Quote from: AsymBacGuy on May 22, 2015, 02:31:54 AM
At a high limit room, I recently witnessed an asian girl betting the maximum on tie bet, winning some consecutive bets in a very short period.
Casino personnel went wild, just as such circumstances weren't allowed by mathematics.
I'm talking about a more than 600k winning on just 6-7 hands.
Yes, but what you don't know is how much the girl was down before that big win. It's senseless to place any bet if you don't have an edge. So how does that make her a hero? it was pure luck.
Quote from: Mike on May 22, 2015, 08:20:41 AM
Yes, but what you don't know is how much the girl was down before that big win. It's senseless to place any bet if you don't have an edge. So how does that make her a hero? it was pure luck.
SHhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. He is new to baccarat. He speaks in foreign tongues and doesn't understand the game. Why else do you think he hasnt posted one single bet placement that makes him money?
Quote from: Mike on May 22, 2015, 08:20:41 AM
So how does that make her a hero? it was pure luck.
Hi.
Hero as she didn't tip a dime. Of course ties are the worst bets in the baccarat empire.
as.
Quote from: Jimske on May 20, 2015, 02:41:57 AM
Actually to cut to the chase super6, his and Gr8's point was, is and always will be that one can predict favorable positions within a shoe to gain an advantage. Of course that begs the question: It's a claim that goes nowhere.
J
Not true.
The serious Baccarat player comes to the realization that he must learn to control that which he can, and "let go" of that which he cannot. Only then will that serious player learn exactly where his efforts should be concentrated.
Bet Selection is one of those efforts. And that means playing a "subjective" game, for there is no mechanical bet placement method that will ever succeed to produce A.) a sufficient strike rate percentage, and B.) a limited variance. Only the serious player, with full experience and knowledge of this most compelling shoe game, stands any real chance for long term success as far as their bet placements are concerned.
And, lastly, Money-Management is the second of those efforts. And that means learning when and when not might be the best time to place their bet (read: a viable "no-bet" option), combined with a bet sizing strategy that takes into account their own personal variance statistics.
I mostly flat bet. Absolutely to best MM method around for any serious player....flat betting. Should the need arise (and it does not, too often...if it did, something is amiss in my play), I'll adjust those bet sizes upward, but, even then, minimally. Patience is the word of the day. So some sessions might take twice as long as others, so what? Better to pay the price of time than the price of our bankroll.
It is a huge mistake, IMHO, to cast all Baccarat players under the same light, as I am certain that not all Baccarat players approach this game with best intentions over the longer term. And, lacking that longer term mentality, then each and every hand dealt, each and every shoe, and each and every session becomes much too imperative, much too stress-filled. No way to live at the Bac table, IMHO.
Stay well, my friends.
Quote from: gr8player on May 22, 2015, 06:04:30 PM
Not true.
The serious Baccarat player comes to the realization that he must learn to control that which he can, and "let go" of that which he cannot. Only then will that serious player learn exactly where his efforts should be concentrated.
Bet Selection is one of those efforts. And that means playing a "subjective" game, for there is no mechanical bet placement method that will ever succeed to produce A.) a sufficient strike rate percentage, and B.) a limited variance. Only the serious player, with full experience and knowledge of this most compelling shoe game, stands any real chance for long term success as far as their bet placements are concerned.
And, lastly, Money-Management is the second of those efforts. And that means learning when and when not might be the best time to place their bet (read: a viable "no-bet" option), combined with a bet sizing strategy that takes into account their own personal variance statistics.
I mostly flat bet. Absolutely to best MM method around for any serious player....flat betting. Should the need arise (and it does not, too often...if it did, something is amiss in my play), I'll adjust those bet sizes upward, but, even then, minimally. Patience is the word of the day. So some sessions might take twice as long as others, so what? Better to pay the price of time than the price of our bankroll.
It is a huge mistake, IMHO, to cast all Baccarat players under the same light, as I am certain that not all Baccarat players approach this game with best intentions over the longer term. And, lacking that longer term mentality, then each and every hand dealt, each and every shoe, and each and every session becomes much too imperative, much too stress-filled. No way to live at the Bac table, IMHO.
Stay well, my friends.
Ah yes. IOW, Gr8 you got to know when to fold and when to holdem. Doesn't that about sum up your message? I get it. Zen Baccarat. Nice!
Oh . . . wait. You keep meticulous records you say. How many bets per shoe on average and what's your w/l %? I'm not trying to pigeon hole you here. Seriously would like to know some documented facts.
Sure, Jimske:
My average bets placed per shoe will vary greatly due both to my exit/entry points and the composition of the results, but, to put a number on it, it'd be just under 20 bets per shoe.
Much more important, IMHO, are my 53.5% strike rates and the relatively-tight variances that go hand-in-hand with a positive bet selection process.
Stay well.
Hi GR8!
What biggest drawdown was according your experience with 53,5% winrate?
Cheers.
Quote from: gr8player on May 23, 2015, 01:49:10 PM
Sure, Jimske:
My average bets placed per shoe will vary greatly due both to my exit/entry points and the composition of the results, but, to put a number on it, it'd be just under 20 bets per shoe.
Much more important, IMHO, are my 53.5% strike rates and the relatively-tight variances that go hand-in-hand with a positive bet selection process.
Stay well.
Thank you Gr8. Nice of you to put some "meat" to a post. Averages don't vary - they're averages. No they don't tell the whole story but Mean and Medians are real important when analyzing performance, IMO.
I assume the 53.3% is gross w/l? That beats my 52.7%. I bet about 50 hands per shoe on average.
Tight variance? I assume that essentially means that you have reduced LIAR from their expected values. Yes, unless we do that we end up with the same w/l expectation.
J
That is exactly what it means.....loss reduction, either consecutive or otherwise.
After all is said and done, this game becomes all about bet-size manipulation. Those that can manage to control their bet sizes, by whatever means at their disposal, will have the best of it at this game, assuming one has the ability to put their chips into the correct circle more often than not (read: positive bet selection process).
That's it. There's your grail. Patient, disciplined play with conservative money management. Sprinkled with very strict exit strategies (either win OR loss), and you're the toughest out in the joint.
(Dilon, I didn't mean to gloss over your inquiry: My drawdowns are rather limited; I won't allow anything over ten base units.)
Stay well.
Quote from: gr8player on May 23, 2015, 03:41:29 PM
That is exactly what it means.....loss reduction, either consecutive or otherwise.
After all is said and done, this game becomes all about bet-size manipulation. Those that can manage to control their bet sizes, by whatever means at their disposal, will have the best of it at this game, assuming one has the ability to put their chips into the correct circle more often than not (read: positive bet selection process).
That's it. There's your grail. Patient, disciplined play with conservative money management. Sprinkled with very strict exit strategies (either win OR loss), and you're the toughest out in the joint.
(Dilon, I didn't mean to gloss over your inquiry: My drawdowns are rather limited; I won't allow anything over ten base units.)
Stay well.
Hi Gr8,
I have read many of your posts and have great admiration for your knowledge and foresight on the game of baccarat. Would you obliged to play a game or 2 in simulation from one of the online casinos and then post the results here and explained your thought process on how you bet. This would immensely help the newbies like me in tapping and seeing your approach on how to win in this game. It is a tough game to beat, so it would be very very helpful if we can be guided by an experienced player like you to share your method. Thank you in advance
Hello, Super6, and thank you for your kind words.
But, as to your request, I'm afraid my playing "a game or 2 in simulation" cannot possibly suffice to enumerate my overall Baccarat methodology. It would do both me and you a great disservice, IMHO.
Look, Super6, let me see if I can break this all down for you:
I am gr8player. I've been on a few of these boards over the years, and I've pretty much espoused the same theories/methodologies regarding the playing of this game over those years, and so my message has resonated well with countless other members as well. So requests such as yours, both publicly and privately, are nothing new to me. I fulfill what I can, trying to explain and expound on my Baccarat approaches and plays as best I'm able to here on the internet.
But, know this, Super6: This is, after all, the internet. I, or anyone else for that matter, can do or say anything. So it then becomes the responsibility of the reader to ascertain the truth; to figure out which members/posters are real, if you will, as opposed to those that are fake.
And the same is true of my play. One must learn to figure out, for themselves, what I am trying to convey in my posts. You see, Super6, I cannot sit down and do it for you, I cannot play for you.
And that then becomes the very nature of my posts, as I always repeat pretty much the same theories and methodologies in each and every one of my posts, I know what it takes the get the better of this game over the long term, and so I do the very best I can to expound on that point at each and every opportunity here on this board. But, that all said, no one here will ever have a snowball's chance in heck to get the better of it until they come to the realization of the SUBJECTIVITY of it all.
In other words, Super6, just because I can, doesn't mean you can. Please (and I'm addressing everyone here, not just Super6) believe me when I tell you that this game is so much more subjective, so much more "mental", then most players could ever imagine. Remember, the seriously committed Bac player is not looking to beat this hand or this shoe or this session; rather, the serious player takes a much broader long-term view of their Bac game. And then my friends, only then, will you alleviate all of the undue pressure and stress that other lesser players might put on each bet they make.
So it becomes about patience and discipline and strike rates and variances and statistics.....and then, even with all of that at your disposal, now you've got to ACTUALLY SIT DOWN AND PLAY. What does that mean?: EXPERIENCE. And as it pertains to experience, definitely, the more the better. Then, and only then, are you best equipped to play that SUBJECTIVE game I am speaking of, where your bet placements and bet sizes and entry/exit strategies are all lined up with your best long-term interests at heart.
I hope that will suffice to answer those that seek to learn more of me, and I will expound more about my preferred trends over the course of time (although, if one looked hard enough into this and a couple of other boards, you'd find I've posted plenty regarding my preferred plays); just please know that the very point of this post is to let most of you know that, frankly, my plays wouldn't do as much for you as you might expect. Only you can do it for you. Only your play could ever truly fit your play or your preferred playing style. And that will happen only when you're in the RIGHT MIND to do it. Ask yourself what you truly want from this game over the long term. If it's "easy money", stop right there. If it's "no work", stop right there. If it's "a mechanical, non-thinking system", stop right there.
You want to learn more of what makes my Bac game work so well for me? It's enumerated in almost every one of my posts over the years.....you'd need only search it out. But, even then, my friends, you've got to "get your head into the game" (read: the correct mindset).
As always, I truly wish it all for you. Stay well.
What I understand Gr8player is saying that it is all a matter of FEEL when and what to bet and that cmmot be taught.That`s the way it is with the game of Baccarat.
Hi GR8
Thanks for replying.
I don't think your playing a game or 2 to show us will be a disservice to us here. Whether the game, shoe or hands you play for us, are a winner or a loser it really does'nt matter to me at least here, as I would like to really see and learn how and what you think when approaching the shoe at hand. The outcome is not important, but your thought process is what I like to learn, especially you're saying you do not have a particular method that you use, but by the years of experiece that you been playing and have developed a particular feel for the shoe.
It would really be a great contribution by you if you can do that. As this thread is a particular reference to the BAT method, I think it is immensely useful if you can come up with any counterplay to the BAT method by your own system, if any. Otherwise I see no point in your post of a very general nature, as I would take it as "air talk", which will fall more appropriately in another general thread or start a new thread. Thank you
You can use educated guess work - but is not better then any existing mechanical betting - because no matter if you feel for each new bet or play like a robot - so will the results be 50/50.
You might feel that one thing is more common then others, trends and jump on board with two/three bets, but the entering points and exit points will not produce better results then mechanical betting.
Conclusion is that no matter how much experience you have and no matter how advance educated guess work you apply - so can you not betting more effective then a mechanical betting.
And no one can betting more winners then losers in the long run - as the game has negative expectation.
It does not exist any secret formula around 50/50.
So you want to read how other think when they play - this will not help you.
For example:
I always start with Follow The Last Outcome.
If it lose i have a single event, then i stop betting.
Now i wait to see if i get one isolated single event or if i get a serie of singes - because different results of the single event make me bet different.
I get one isolated single, next i feel for a new serie to chop and bet, lets say i lose and have one isolated single, then i bet the trends it will be a single isolated event as the previos single event.
But in this situation i will in reality get as many isolated single events as series of single events, so it does not matter if i follow the feeling or trend, because the game is 50/50.
Quote from: super6 on May 24, 2015, 12:55:40 AM
Hi Gr8,
I have read many of your posts and have great admiration for your knowledge and foresight on the game of baccarat. Would you obliged to play a game or 2 in simulation from one of the online casinos and then post the results here and explained your thought process on how you bet. This would immensely help the newbies like me in tapping and seeing your approach on how to win in this game. It is a tough game to beat, so it would be very very helpful if we can be guided by an experienced player like you to share your method. Thank you in advance
Don't hold your breath! Search out his posts and you'll keep reading the same thing over and over again. I don't mean to be harsh. It's just a fact. ND said it all quite succinctly.
Quote from: NathanDetroit on May 24, 2015, 03:39:01 PM
What I understand Gr8player is saying that it is all a matter of FEEL when and what to bet and that cmmot be taught.That`s the way it is with the game of Baccarat.
But Gr8 could do what you asked if he cared to. Problem 1 is it would be VERY time consuming to explain every reason for his bet. It would be so subjective and each "rule" would have a mitigating change based on a number of parameters (read guesses).
However, he's a trender. If he betting only about 20 hands per shoe most shoes than he is, unlike me, NOT starting out with a certain fixed placement but waiting for a trend to appear. The trend is probably relative to a certain pattern. Doesn't matter that much what he is looking for. Could be more chops than streak or OTBL vs. TBL. I like to key off the singles and bet the trend based on simple follow or repeat. If singles are scarce I am going to get more repeats - duh. If they're normal distribution than that is more difficult and I look at pattens and bet hoping they will continue.
He mostly flat bets so if he loses a couple, three units he probably stops and looks for what he considers to be strengths. Could be side dom or lots of 2's or a run never going more than a certain length, etc. So then he will probably make a couple of "big" 2 unit bets to see if he can recoup. If he does he will look for a new trend if not he will look for an exit one or two small trial balloon bets.
The key for any trender is to attempt to exploit a shoe when the trend is working for you and keep losses low when it is not. In this way scraping out a few units a shoe is not that difficult. The hard part is there is NO set plays that HAVE AN EDGE. Therefore it's just a guessing game and the play is always tentative. If he had a true edge like asymbac claims then he would be making specific bets with much larger units and would have a bankroll to overcome the variance.
I was reading some old posts on another forum from years ago (2009) and Gr8player did give a few clues as to what his bet selection involved.
''I play 4 different "trend" plays. I've played these same trends for years, and am very familiar with them.
I took my scorecards (actuals), and calculated their best "strike rates". In other words, in what position in each of these trends do they hit (win) the most often?
Suffice it to say, I found that exact play in each one of them, and, now, that's all I'll bet at the table. (I cannot go any further than that as to the exact bets; I have all of my statistics: strike rates, average drawdowns, variances, etc. I've shared plenty in this forum.) This I can say: Each and every one of them are performing at better than 50%, and my over-all strike rate is almost 54%. And with low drawdowns (average DD: 7 units) and tight variances.
I play them in a "one and done" manner. By that I mean, that I either hit it(win) or lose it, but, either way, it's only one bet per trend, per occurrence.
As you know, because of the high strike rates and tight variances, I am able to employ my slight negative progression (Gr8Player's Progression) in order to maximize both my time at the tables and my profits.''
I hope Gr8player doesn't mind me posting this up. It was on a public forum. It kind of gives a bit more insight into things.
cheers
Quote from: Jimske on May 25, 2015, 01:51:59 PM
The key for any trender is to attempt to exploit a shoe when the trend is working for you and keep losses low when it is not. In this way scraping out a few units a shoe is not that difficult. The hard part is there is NO set plays that HAVE AN EDGE. Therefore it's just a guessing game and the play is always tentative. If he had a true edge like asymbac claims then he would be making specific bets with much larger units and would have a bankroll to overcome the variance.
Absolutely spot-on, Jimske, great job!
That was the basis of my "battle" at the Wizard of Vegas forum; while I espoused about my Bac play and the theories/methodologies regarding same, I could not ever claim any true edge, as so I retired from that board.
I have no true edge, no calculable, consistent, nor mathematical edge. Nor have I ever claimed such.
But I do have me. And my brain. Yes, we are allowed to think at the tables, whereas the decision-spewing table cannot, it can only dole out results. In that vein, I am of the opinion that my Player's Edges can trump the table's:
1.) We can bet where we choose to.
2.) We can bet when we choose to.
3.) We can bet the amount we choose to.
4.) We can exit the shoe/session as we choose to.
All our choices. The bet selection process, the money-management, the exit strategies; all under our control.
The wise player...the serious player...learns to differentiate between that which he can and cannot control, and then willingly takes on that responsibility, and, in fact, turns that very control into their own personal "edge".
Yes, Jimske, I trend. Oh, and yes, Sputnik, it'll all boil out to a 50/50 proposition in the long run. My bet selection process is no better than any other.....oops, wait....scratch that. That's not true. Maybe mathematically, played mechanically, maybe then it's true, but I am the farthest thing from a "mechanical" player; for that would negate half of those Player's Edges I just espoused.
Look, I trend. I trend for "clustered" results; results anticipated I as see each portion of certain shoes "trending towards" that propensity. But, as Jimske said in the quote, it's all a tentative game. But, you see, my friends, I both understand and accept that fact. I've come to terms with it. Heck...I've built my over-all Bac game around it.
Otherwise, again as Jimske stated, I'd "load up" and bet big on certain plays. But I do not, because I am aware of the reality of this game. So I am resolved to play, as long as that might take, armed with my patience and my discipline, to await those "clustered" periods where I can now reap the benefits of my Player's Edges.
That's it. That, my friends, is all there is. ME....YOU....against the non-thinking, decision-spewing table. Who will win out, over the long term? What can be said of you, as a Baccarat player, at the tables? You write your own ending.....
Sorry, Horus, but your post came up while I was busy with my last response, I did not mean to ignore you, my friend.
All relevant, but I do not utilize, certainly not as strictly, my Gr8Player's Progression as much anymore, preferring, again, a bit more "subjective" money-management plan where I'll adjust my bet sizes as certain "variances" trigger me to do so.
Stay well.
gr8player,
So do you believe that you have the edge? If so, then what is it?
R-W,
You and Sputnik are correct in that there is no bet selection which will give you an advantage, but aren't you being a little hypocritical here?
You claim to be a professional Baccarat player, but if that's true, you must have an edge. So wherein is your edge? if it doesn't come from winning more hands than you lose, it must be from money-management, yes? but the math says money-management cannot give you an edge any more than bet selection can. And you are keen to point out that:
QuoteMath is great like that, once it's been proven that no method exists to do what you claim, it's not necessary to go through the details of your system to prove that it doesn't work. You claim that it does something which can be proven impossible, therefore, your claim is false. The details don't matter.
Perhaps you are not aware that progressions can't give you any long-term advantage, but I doubt it. In which case, it's a case of pot calling kettle black. It amounts to "my fallacy is superior to your fallacy".
Quote from: Xander on May 25, 2015, 04:29:31 PM
gr8player,
So do you believe that you have the edge? If so, then what is it?
Xander, I respect you as a man of intelligence, but as to your inquiry, if you'd simply re-read my penultimate post just above...
Quote from: Rolex-Watch on May 26, 2015, 06:34:42 AM
I don't really want to get involved in this endless clap-trap, Baccarat being the most subjective nonsense on gambling forums.
Surely you're referring to your own "joke of a forum" that you presided over....tell us, will you, Johno....how's that going for ya?
Those that denigrate or demean have no place in any civil public forum, so please, do us all a favor and crawl back under your rock.
Oh, but before you do, Johno, one last thing:
Nobody....NOBODY....is going to beat this game armed only with some money-management and bankroll. Not now...not ever. It is but a fool's dream awaiting only to collide with the inevitable wall (read: out of bankroll). Tell us....how many times have you had to re-load yours?
Oh,and just one more last thing:
One's bet selection process is very, very critical to any sort of long-term success at this game. You'd best get learn to get your money into the correct circle....more often than not....or simply give this game up. Sure, you'll maybe win some shoes or sessions or even days, but in the long run, the casino will get your every dollar, because your losing runs will eat you alive.
Oh, and just one more last thing, I promise:
Nice seeing you again, Johno. You're almost always wrong, but you're also almost always interesting. Just....please, man....stay civil.
Quote from: gr8player on May 26, 2015, 12:04:04 PM
Surely you're referring to your own "joke of a forum" that you presided over....tell us, will you, Johno....how's that going for ya?
spiffing, how would you know if it is a joke or not, thankfully you ain't part of it.
I'm hanging out in VIP rooms, that have hosts that cater to my needs, you are hiring a car to drive to AC with some fictitious friend, gambling fictitious amounts, thinking they can out guess coin flips over 53% of the time, no wonder Shackleford was just about to instigate a rule change to get rid of you. Your deluded, any boozo can play a shoe and sometimes hit over 60%, 70%, only an idi0t would actually assume it meant something and then start labelling themselves an "experienced trender" .
Quote from: gr8player on May 26, 2015, 12:04:04 PM
Nice seeing you again, Johno. You're almost always wrong, but you're also almost always interesting. Just....please, man....stay civil.
Not half as f00lish as you,
QuoteGiz, I can relate a story to you; happened a while back in a casino that I still play in.
A "suit" came down to watch us (my playing partner and myself) play. He was just observing, but made sure we knew that he was observing US. After the session was over, I walked over the CCC booth, and asked them one simple question: Can I, if I'm a consistent winner, be asked to leave by casino personnel? Their answer: No, sir, unless you are using a device or cheating. I said I was doing neither, and they told me not to worry about it. That's the last time I saw that "suit".
Another time, when I had asked a casino boss to "check my rating" because I was given unquestionably "short" comp dollars, I was told by him that it actually reads in their computer my EXPECTED WIN, not my EXPECTED LOSS. (Somehow, apparently, they calculate what you're generally expected to lose on a per session basis.) What I felt was amazing was that they actually had an "expected win" percentage for me in their computer.
http://www.gamblersglen.com/cgi-bin/teemz/teemz.cgi?board=_master&action=opentopic&topic=597&forum=Baccarat_Message_Board
[smiley]cxp/lol.gif[/smiley]
Do carry on, knocking mechanical modes when those with half a brain know there is absolute no difference. You have to excuse me, I've better things to do with my time than let Walter who now has even more time on his hands impose on mine. Should I wish to seriously discuss Baccarat, or simply chew the fat, I know the right place.
I'm still trudging my way through this method. It is imo unnecessarily confusing with A-1 pattern A-2 pattern B-1-3 pattern. I feel the author could have been less complex using OLD or FLD for bets A B X Y Z. He does however give long detailed examples of the play and I'm working my way through that searching for the losing pattern. Everything and Everybody loses 9 in a row eventually. Doesn't matter if you have a stop loss and a no bet/virtual bet rule, 9L is a reality and it's coming. I just wanted to discern the pattern and then look for it in my bank of Bac cards.
It seems several people have praised it and even made (to me) a small fortune with it. However, the "Attack" isn't much of an attack at all. It starts with a regression! of all things and then has a conservative progression from there. The result of which is not impressive. 10 5 8 10 13 16 20 is 7 wins in a row for 82. All win series end in a loss and this one would be -25. For a total of 57 for 7 wins in a row. Flat betting 10 for 7 wiar out performs this 'attack' by 3 bucks.
Conversely the retrenchment mode is far far more aggressive and is just shy of a true Fibo. So close to a fibo I don't understand why it isn't. 10 15 25 40 60 100 150 is the written retrenchment, 10 15 25 40 65 105 170 is a proper Fibo. Anyway, if you lose 7 in a row, and you will, theoretically equally as often as you win 7 in a row you bust out 400 bucks. A far cry from the lousy 57 you are going to win with its counterpart.
Now I know some of your 7 wiar aren't going to occur at the exact moment you make a "trigger" bet. And you will be in 'retrenchment' mode for part of it and complete a successful recovery. Yay, (sarcasm) the left over wins won't carry you far into "attack" mode which will net you less than the necessary amount of units to cover your incoming 7 liar, which is guaranteed to bring you to the 150 bet every time. Most times it will bust you out, you will have to be in 'attack' mode for 7 liar to bring you to the threshold of losing the 150 bet, and 8 liar is a guaranteed loss of 400.
I mean, the fibo is not an unknown MM and it should be imo common knowledge for experienced bettors as an extremely dangerous MM to engage in. The real money maker in this scheme is a WLWLWLWL pattern. Especially in 'retrenchment' mode as the fibo is not executed in the orthodox manner of reducing your bet two levels. Which is its only, extremely unreliable, defense against ballooning out of control.
This thing of an unholy grail is mostly profitable in retrenchment mode with a WLWLWL pattern. There are much better MM schemes that exist that take advantage of this pattern with much less risk.
I post this as a warning to amateur gambler's that might jump right into this unwittingly.
As mentioned before, this method is only good for online casinos where you can wager only one dollar a hand.
If you are in a real casino betting $ 100 a hand, then a 150 unit bet is $ 15,000 and a 400 unit bet is $ 40,000
Anybody here willing to bet $ 40,000 on a hand of baccarat?
Quote from: tdx on June 04, 2015, 12:42:01 AM
As mentioned before, this method is only good for online casinos where you can wager only one dollar a hand.
If you are in a real casino betting $ 100 a hand, then a 150 unit bet is $ 15,000 and a 400 unit bet is $ 40,000
Anybody here willing to bet $ 40,000 on a hand of baccarat?
That would be a resounding, NO
I'm not picking a fight here....
But yeah, I could more easily stomach a bust out of 80 bucks vs 400. But that doesn't change how this system works. Someone who regularly bets 100 bucks a hand may have the same disregard for 400 dollars as I have for 80.
Baccarat Attack Strategy in live casino play....
The start of this thread had many commenting that they thought this strategy looked promising, and the trail end of the thread concluded it may be worthwhile with a lot of capital or for play at on-line casinos where the minimum bet sizes may be very low.
Any updates? Thanks.
I bought 2 systems from Silverthorne or whatever their name including Greg. Printed out the forms and with full enthusiasm went and try them out. Promptly lost my bankroll for those occasions. doesn't work when there are plenty of doubles. that's my experience.
Lung Yeh you can not have or get an edge playing 50/50 game with negative expectation.
All combinations has the same probability.
Cheers
Quote from: Sputnik on December 04, 2015, 10:19:45 AM
Lung Yeh you can not have or get an edge playing 50/50 game with negative expectation.
All combinations has the same probability.
Cheers
Yup. Further. The occurrences of each cumulative pattern length are the same. IOW. pp bb pp bb pp bb will ocurr at the same frequency as ppppppppppp or p b p b p b p b p b p b All 12 IAR.
I got my hands on the BAT PDF a few days ago and read through it. It was exciting, but I wouldn't bet a dime on it without stress testing it myself.
So I've written a computer program that simulates playing a baccarat table with a user utilizing the fletcher bet strategy. I wanted to see how the system held up over thousands of hands. I've spent the last day comparing my W/L chart to the system, trying to iron out any kinks and making sure the right decision is made in every hand.
I even made things a little easier on the program by only using player and banker, with no code for a tie yet, which SHOULD make the system work even better.
Seems like a dud. I've run dozens of simulations, even tinkering with the bankroll, and it seems to bust just as often as it produces. While it's POSSIBLE that my program doesn't follow the system right (I've attached a sample output of the program with 600 hands played, in the event any kind soul who knows this system well would like to look at it and tell me if I made a significant mistake), I suspect there's just no account for the randomness of the cards. But if anyone would like to peek at the program results, it's attached.
EDIT:
I've now programmed in a virtual eight deck shoe and simulated actual baccarat hands instead of just using a RNG. This of course includes ties now. As near as I can tell this should be as accurate a baccarat simulation as can be done virtually.
It's basically the same. I think I have successful sessions as often as unsuccessful ones. And most of the time the return isn't worth the time it would take to play all those hands. Just not much success, at least not enough.
My understanding of this system is that, given a 2 dollar base bet, you'd expect to be up around 20-30 dollars 14 times for every 1 time you bust and lose 90-150 dollars, which makes the system very profitable, but I'm seeing numbers a lot closer to 6 wins for every 1 bust, which doesn't go anywhere.
Attaching a new file with sample results from the most recent program iteration.
Quote from: the7joker7 on December 04, 2015, 08:12:54 PM
I got my hands on the BAT PDF a few days ago and read through it. It was exciting, but I wouldn't bet a dime on it without stress testing it myself.
This may lead nowhere, but if you can assess where the system is failing and combine it with your own knowledge, you may build a 2.0 that's worth playing with. Some systems are such stuff that you are essentially better off starting with your own knowledge only.
Quote from: 21 Aces on December 06, 2015, 09:25:07 AM
This may lead nowhere, but if you can assess where the system is failing and combine it with your own knowledge, you may build a 2.0 that's worth playing with. Some systems are such stuff that you are essentially better off starting with your own knowledge only.
I was thinking about that. Although I must say that it seems like the problem is that I inevitably go on losing streaks of 9 straight hands, or 10 out of 11, or something like that...don't know what adjustments I could make to avoid those.
Right now I am working with a shoe stop loss. Some shoes may just be too difficult.
....if you have some diffecult shoes 21Aces, i Always like to look at them.... can you post them in anyway....??
Ps, are they from an real live casino or from an Online casino?
Carlitos 8)
Hi guys,
I just joined this great forum. This post has been a while. I am looking for a baccarat betting strategy and I found this post of bmare at google search. I am new to baccarat and I only followed patterns and mostly guessing. Good thing, I found this thread. Yeah, Greg's betting placement is working for me 3 days in a row now and its 2017. I just started with $100 because Im just practising. I am playing with real money using casino online (live) and not software. I knew it was live because when I said "hi" in the chat box, the dealer said "hi" too and mentioned my name.
I bet only $1 that's why I don't use his attack strategy. For the betting amount I stick with $1 until I reach my $7 target/day and stop playing. Whenever I lose I follow his retrenchment method and bet 2,3,5,813. 13 is my maximum stop loss. If I reached 13, either win or lose I will stop playing for the day. Good thing my max bet that I had is $8 but itsonly been 3days. Im still new to baccarat that's why I will stick with this betting placement and betting amount. Reaching my target of $7 take me only 15 minutes.
For money management, I had assumed for a month to reach my target of 7 units in 26 days and lose at least once a week (six straight in a row) from -1,-2,-3,-5,-8, -13 (-32units) which has a probability of 1:64 of chance that it may happen. I only play once a day. So 7x26 - 4x32 = 54 units. 54 units in a month estimated winning is very big even 25%. Unlike trading with Forex or Binary. I will post my actual result after a month because its just a rough estimate. Any comment will be helpful to me since Im a newbie.
Quote from: Carlitos on December 07, 2015, 05:41:41 AM
....if you have some diffecult shoes 21Aces, i Always like to look at them.... can you post them in anyway....??
Ps, are they from an real live casino or from an Online casino?
Carlitos 8)
Just now saw this. They would be from off-line/ live. I have taken a lot of notes from time to time, but lately I have not been doing so.
I will try this tomorrow..Monday is my schedule to play wish me luck on this system
I tried it online and its good I think once your up 10X or 15X of your trigger bet you have to stand up and quit.
I played a lot of shoes online and in practice and its realloy holding up its very fast to reach 10X of your trigger bet
but I noticed only one time it reached 20X and the money was sucked in again ... so better when your up 10X of your trigger bet
you have to quit or transfer to another table. just my two cents..first time I will try tomorrow
btw I'm from manila so ill be playing in okada..
Quote from: johnpebenito on May 28, 2017, 02:30:51 PM
I will try this tomorrow..Monday is my schedule to play wish me luck on this system
I tried it online and its good I think once your up 10X or 15X of your trigger bet you have to stand up and quit.
I played a lot of shoes online and in practice and its realloy holding up its very fast to reach 10X of your trigger bet
but I noticed only one time it reached 20X and the money was sucked in again ... so better when your up 10X of your trigger bet
you have to quit or transfer to another table. just my two cents..first time I will try tomorrow
btw I'm from manila so ill be playing in okada..
Hi john... I am based in Philiipines. I am very familiar with this system.Perhaps we can meet in Manila casinos and share information on this. Please send me private email mliew118@yahoo.com
Quote from: super6 on May 28, 2017, 10:21:15 PM
Hi john... I am based in Philiipines. I am very familiar with this system.Perhaps we can meet in Manila casinos and share information on this. Please send me private email mliew118@yahoo.com
yo bro! I dropped u an email..viber me or WhatsApp maybe we can play together one of these days lets have a killing lol
btw hows this system holdin up in landbase casinos? will try it for the first time later in okada manila, will be there around 2 or 3pm
if u have time later drop by..thanks man nice to have sumone from manila here in this forum. btw where you from originally? are you Filipino? or no? if not where u from originally? I am Filipino but I recently just came back here in Manila I was based in the UAE for 5 years and there is no Gambling there.
so glad to be back I realized and appreciate FREEDOM is..lol since in UAE I can't act like this lol..
anyway, came back last week. played twice won 750usd on my first game after 5 years, and lose it back the next day lol
lost 500 the next day at least I still have a 250 usd profit..lets see how this system goes later..im excited lol
Quote from: super6 on May 28, 2017, 10:21:15 PM
Hi john... I am based in Philiipines. I am very familiar with this system.Perhaps we can meet in Manila casinos and share information on this. Please send me private email mliew118@yahoo.com
hello im from philippines also.
Quote from: johnpebenito on May 29, 2017, 03:12:04 AM
yo bro! I dropped u an email..viber me or WhatsApp maybe we can play together one of these days lets have a killing lol
btw hows this system holdin up in landbase casinos? will try it for the first time later in okada manila, will be there around 2 or 3pm
if u have time later drop by..thanks man nice to have sumone from manila here in this forum. btw where you from originally? are you Filipino? or no? if not where u from originally? I am Filipino but I recently just came back here in Manila I was based in the UAE for 5 years and there is no Gambling there.
so glad to be back I realized and appreciate FREEDOM is..lol since in UAE I can't act like this lol..
anyway, came back last week. played twice won 750usd on my first game after 5 years, and lose it back the next day lol
lost 500 the next day at least I still have a 250 usd profit..lets see how this system goes later..im excited lol
Hello kabayans. Im from Philippines also but I am based in UAE. I play online live casino. I use royal panda and the site is not blocked here.
Hey all, after reading BAS a couple times and practicing with play money, I finally tried it out yesterday on Pinnacle's casino. I lost my 3rd game but then rattled off 12 straight wins for a 14/15 first session. Seems like if you follow it strictly it will work a large % of the time. Just have a question about his retrenchment bets (ie. pg. 87). It seems to me that the bets for base bet of 2 are correct, but all of the others have the trigger bet as a retrenchment bet also. I assume this is just an error? Because that doesn't seem right for a progression/recouping your losses.
Quote from: naturaln1ne on June 24, 2017, 01:45:38 PM
Hey all, after reading BAS a couple times and practicing with play money, I finally tried it out yesterday on Pinnacle's casino. I lost my 3rd game but then rattled off 12 straight wins for a 14/15 first session. Seems like if you follow it strictly it will work a large % of the time. Just have a question about his retrenchment bets (ie. pg. 87). It seems to me that the bets for base bet of 2 are correct, but all of the others have the trigger bet as a retrenchment bet also. I assume this is just an error? Because that doesn't seem right for a progression/recouping your losses.
Here is the BAS programmed in Excel. Test away! :thumbsup:
Baelog
It is presumed that if you lose the R7 bet (120), you reach stop loss!! The banker commission has not been taken in the program. Some fancy programming. Thanks.
The retrenchment bets don't seem right to me in that spreadsheet.. Why is your first one (R1) the same as your trigger, and not a bit more? That way you only ever recover your trigger bet, and not gain a base bet on top of that. In Fletcher's sample games with a $2 base bet, his trigger is $4 and R1 is $6, which makes sense. Not trying to argue, just trying to make sense of it and figure out the correct first retrenchment bet.
Quote from: naturaln1ne on June 24, 2017, 07:11:10 PM
The retrenchment bets don't seem right to me in that spreadsheet.. Why is your first one (R1) the same as your trigger, and not a bit more? That way you only ever recover your trigger bet, and not gain a base bet on top of that. In Fletcher's sample games with a $2 base bet, his trigger is $4 and R1 is $6, which makes sense. Not trying to argue, just trying to make sense of it and figure out the correct first retrenchment bet.
Just coded it as the book described. Made this about a year ago just to run a test. The spreadsheet is completely open so if there is errors please feel free to change it. Enjoy!
Baelog
.
Quote from: Sputnik on December 04, 2015, 10:19:45 AM
Lung Yeh you can not have or get an edge playing 50/50 game with negative expectation.
All combinations has the same probability.
Cheers
So why is everyone here trying so damn hard at it?
So in my first 57 games I only had 3 losses, hitting a % just a little above Fletcher's long term % and making a good profit. Since then I've lost 6 games out of 22. I use pinnacle casino. Is there any chance it's rigged to screw me since I was crushing it so bad? Or just a terrible string of luck? Really seems to be against me..
Quote from: naturaln1ne on June 27, 2017, 06:43:34 PM
So in my first 57 games I only had 3 losses, hitting a % just a little above Fletcher's long term % and making a good profit. Since then I've lost 6 games out of 22. I use pinnacle casino. Is there any chance it's rigged to screw me since I was crushing it so bad? Or just a terrible string of luck? Really seems to be against me..
Hi naturaln1ne,
Regarding SIlverthorne, Gambler's bookcase, Hunter, Fletcher et al you may be interested in my thread:
https://www.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=15796.0
Regards,
Atlantis.
Quote from: Chimp on June 25, 2017, 12:32:51 AM
So why is everyone here trying so damn hard at it?
Because they are ignorant of the mathematical facts and are misled by hucksters or similarly ignorant people such as Greg Fletcher, Martin Silverthorne, and Stephen Tabone.