Note in the following link below:

Pg. 3 NOTE the significant drop in Hold% for Bac starting in 2004.? Any thoughts as to why the hold % dropped from approx 18%--21% from 1992--2003, then a huge drop to mostly 11-12% from 2004--2023.
* My thinking was that maybe the increase in EZ Bac tables vs the old-school "Big Table". I don't know as just thinking out loud. There has to be some major change in the game for that to occur. Maybe just variance??

Any thoughts or theories??


NevadaTablesHold%


Thanks/credit to the UNLV Center For Gaming Research

Winning spots

There are three different ways to catch a W spot:

1- Hoping it'll come out as a "starting" spot

2- Considering it to stop a L pattern of given lenght

3- Considering it to come out again after a W spot (W cluster)

From a math point of view, such list doesn't make any sense as the W probability will remain 0.75 indipendently of what we're trying to dissect.

Actually (and fortunately) things doesn't correspond to those raw probabilities for each W scenario happening.
In fact even the first starting scenario mainly based upon "luck", itlr will form detectable W distributions needing quite time to be correctly grasped, many times by letting go those natural L clustered events to show up.

The third point seems to be quite straightforward but it is not, we reckon being the #1 reason why most players fail.

The second point needs a lot of time to provide real bettable spots, but by far will provide those sure strong EV+ situations completely denied by math (but not by statistics).
Remember that we do not want to win 100% of those relative rare allegedly EV+ spots, we'll always expect negative variance putting us into a harsh emotional status.

Yet, whenever a verified situation launched "infinite" times won't provide proportional math values, well we'd think to be in a very good shape to exploit an advantage.

More later

as.

Thanks for the explanation KFB!

I concur with 8OR9.

I'd add to the list playing at double or triple (ouch) zeroes roulettes, or at baccarat betting the Tiger pair (HE= 30%) and many other bigornsh.it side bets where players are simply pushing their money to the dealer's tray.

as. 

In my humble opinion. anyone who plays baccarat where the is an ante or some other fee is in the same category as someone who plays blackjack which pays 6 to 5 instead of 3 to 2 for a blackjack......not the smartest decision you will make that day.

Hi AsymBacGuy.

Asym:
"...Never heard of "ante" while playing baccarat.
Actually what does that mean
?.."

A little background.

Indian(i.e., tribe, native american) casinos in the USA. They are in about 28-30 states. I would say most are in the Midwest in states like (Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma,..etc) or West coast (California, Arizona,..etc). Many of these tribes have various pacts with the respective states on how they will pay the state a % of gambling revenue on Class III games(e.g., Table games such as Bac, roulette, craps, blackjack,...etc).

This ante or "Fee" is paid by the casino after collecting from the player on each hand dealt, wheel spun, dice come out,..etc). The casino often uses euphemisms to make things seem less bad (ante instead of fee or charge or tax). A common ante is .50c for a wager up to $99, and a $1 for a wager $100--999, $2 at $999--2000, $3 > $2000. Some just charge $1 regardless if at a table min of $10 or $1000.

Some of the better managed casinos often pay this (to the state) for the player or may have "No-Ante" days which are often during the week: Sun--thurs, or Mon,Tues,Thurs, M-Fri noon,...etc. If the casino pays it for the player then the dealer tracks the wagers with lammers on each hand, wheel spin, comeout roll in craps,...etc. This is how the casino knows how much they will pay the state.

Some casinos also have rules like: All hi-limit table games (usually $25 min or $50min) are ante free every day.
Each casino can set these rules as they like. 

*So obviously the smaller player is facing a much higher obstacle than just the house edge(e.g., .50c on a $15 wager). But even if paying $1 on a $100 wager one faces an additional hurdle as these "fees" on every single wager can easily add up to >=$30--60 every session.

**In my opinion there is also an additional issue that is often over looked. That is the fact this "fee" is paid Up Front--Win or "lose".

I simply choose to play at casinos that pay the ante for the player/only play during the week when the casino doesn't charge a ante or play at hi-limit tables.

KungFuBac is most certainly anti antes.


Continued Success,

Thanks for sharing KFB!

Never heard of "ante" while playing baccarat.
Actually what does that mean
?
Thanks, hope you keep posting



as.

KungfuBac:
"One shoe did not have a single Panda8 or Fortune7 winner. Two 3c8 and 3c7 presented but they lost or tied so no bonus winner."

Alrelax:

"Where I play a lot, Panda 8 is not offered.  But I still pay attention to 3C8s for the player.  I cannot recall a show without any.  But as far as the F7 goes, plenty of shoes without a Single One!  Once, I came in and there were already 4 consecutive shoes without one!!!  Then I witnessed another 3 consecutive shoes without one.  On the 8th shoe at the same table finally a single F7 appeared."


Yes, on the very next shoe after the "No P8 or F7" shoe--Five 3c7 presented but two were Nonwinners (tied/defeated). Around hand 60ish three out of four consecutive outcomes were F7 Bonus winners.
    I didn't have any of the F7s as I probably only wagered a total of four or five  f7 wagers in the five-shoes-from-hell.


Continued Success,

"One shoe did not have a single Panda8 or Fortune7 winner. Two 3c8 and 3c7 presented but they lost or tied so no bonus winner."

Where I play a lot, Panda 8 is not offered.  But I still pay attention to 3C8s for the player.  I cannot recall a shoe without any.  Usually more than 2-3 on the average.  But as far as the F7 goes, plenty of shoes without a Single One!  Once, I came in and there were already 4 consecutive shoes without one!!!  Then I witnessed another 3 consecutive shoes without one.  On the 8th shoe at the same table finally a single F7 appeared.

It happens.  As I say, "play long enough and anything and everything will occur".

As my pictures I post show, I do consistently receive 3-5 F7s better than 50% of the times I play. 

Session From Hell        

I just returned from a multi-night Bac excursion. Most days and sessions were unremarkable. The typical up/down and then I would win 3-4 pressed bets in a row/ finish shoe on an uptick and lock in a nice profit,...etc. No big-win shoes for the whole trip. NADA.

However, I played one session that included five full shoes from start to finish. This was the session from Hell.LOL.
Different tables but same casino. My hit rate across all five shoes: 22W 33L. That is correct. Not even 50%. I can't ever remember having such a weak hit rate across five shoes(maybe a really bad shoe or two sometimes). The worst part: I was never above the 50% hit rate. Making it worse was the fact I couldnt seem to win >=4 iar consecutive winners(not necessarily same consec events).

I was drawn down (-2500--4400) for most of the session. Near midnight I finally put four consec Ws together and recouped to only being down (-1830) for the session. I departed and went to bed. This was an Indian casino in Midwest,USA that charges an Ante from Thursday 1159pm---Sunday 1159pm. I refuse to pay an ante as IMO its usury. So I do not play here on weekends.

*One shoe did not have a single Panda8 or Fortune7 winner. Two 3c8 and 3c7 presented but they lost or tied so no bonus winner.

**One shoe did not have a 3iar(iar:In A Row) same-side winner until the latter part of shoe(approx hand 65--70 and then only one of each (PPP and a couple hands later a BBB). This shoe had several 5 individual chop streaks(pbpbp ,...etc). I actually caught both of these "third" winners. I recalled some of my conversations with forum alum AsymBacGuy and the likelihood for a shoe to finish without at least one 3iar same-side winner. I have only had one shoe in my life that did not show a PPP and or a BBB.



More later,

Good to see the site back on line.

I agree with AsymBacGuy et al:

"...I still have to read a lot of posts made in the past by people who I'd consider among the best gambling scholars, you first.

Yep, we do not need a forum with magic systems, garbage sellers or threads soaked by fights and verbal abuse...."

This is the only Bac site I have ever joined. So I certainly missed it while it was down for maintenance.
    During the past couple weeks I searched for a decent Bac site that seemed to have veteran players(that actually played) and not just posters, system sellers, ...etc. I did not find any Bac sites that seemed satisfactory. I finally found a roulette site and a Sports Betting site with some worthwhile posts to read. The Sports-Betting site seemed to have some serious and full-time professional gamers(No real Bac players/posts though). The roulette site had some good posts from the past but only a handful of posts since 2022. However, roulette isn't my game of choice.

Bottom line: This site has an abundance of past/present posts for the serious Bac player /gamer. Hopefully some of the lurkers will join or signin more often. Maybe take a couple minutes and post a note, trip report, comment, ones local casino conditions, tell us where you play(B&M, online),ask questions, your biggest win, ...etc.



Continued Success To All,