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Topics - muggins

#1
General Discussion / Moderators
September 18, 2014, 04:26:34 AM
This post is me expressing my support for both esoito and ADulay. 

Moderation of any forum takes a lot of time and effort all for the reward of NOTHING in real terms.

Thank you both for stepping up and doing a job most of us would not like to have to spend time doing.  As you will already know you only get feedback when you step on someone who is out of line and they protest loudly, as has happened here in the last few day.  Most don't bother reading the rules, if they did they wouldn't be getting their posts deleted or althered.  If they did read the rules and posted anyway they are most likely just trolls trying to disrupt.

Thanks again.
#2
Horse & Greyhound Racing Forum / Longshots
September 02, 2014, 06:32:49 AM
Not sure how this will go down and if unacceptable I won't bother.

I am going to share my daily picks for a system that I have been using since late 2011 for selecting longshots in UK horse racing. 

It only has a strike rate of between 11-12%, but based on a $1 level stake it has returned just over $1300 since the beginning of 2012 based on Bookmaker starting prices.  I don't use bookmakers anymore and only use Betfair because the returns have been a lot better. Also bookmakers have a habit of banning me.
So far this year I have had 4 selections pay over $100 based on a $1 outlay, the highest paid $300 when I got on it, but the BFSP ended up being $160.  Most selections are in the $5-20 range, but then there are a lot of losers.  This needs to be remembered with any longshot system.

There are A LOT of lurkers on this forum looking for a free lunch who can get any attachment without being a member. For this reason I am going to password protect the selections and only give the password to members with at least 10 posts and a 1 month membership of the forum.  Looking through the membership list this seems like a good set of conditions. Most people will not be interested anyway.

I will post the results the next day.

Todays selections attached, if you meet the conditions mentioned above PM me for the password.
#3
Off-topic / The usual suspects
August 31, 2014, 03:51:48 PM
I am new to this forum and have been doing a lot of reading on this forum and other forums of the things Gizmotron has been trying to show us.  Whether he is right or wrong.

It pi**es me off that the usual dropkicks who contribute absolutely NOTHING to any thread they post in have to disrupt and do their best to end the discussion.  What is your problem?  Get a life.

eg Xander, Garnabby, Spike/Cheese etc.  Why don't you lot just p**s off and find something else to do.  I am sure I am not alone thinking this.
#4
Street / Simple Street System
May 25, 2014, 12:46:22 PM
As requested here is a very very simple street system that I have been experimenting with which I originally posted on Betforum.cc:

Record spins in multiples of 5 until you get 1 street or more that has hit twice WITHIN the a five spin cycle.

Place 1 unit on any street that has hit twice or more within the last 5 spins (must be within the last 5 spins) for the next 5 spins, BUT remove all bets anytime within the next 5 spins when a Bank Roll high is  achieved, but continue to record the streets hit for the completion of the 5 spins.

If no hits during the five spins, increase stake by 1 unit on any multiple hit streets for the next 5 spins.

Basically we are playing in 5 spin cycles betting on hot streets from the previous 5 spins and increasing stakes if we don't get a hit within any 5 spins.

Example:
1 (S1)
11 (S4)
12 (S4)

21 (S7)
26 (S9)

Street 4 repeats so we bet on it for next 5 spins or until it hits if it is the first betting cycle.

Sometimes you won't get any repeats within 5 spins, keep doing 5 spin cycles until you do.

In my trials I have found that it makes about 50 units per 100 spins with very few misses.  The most units I have had to bet per spin is 6 per street. I have tested about 10,000 spins so far with live spin data.

Here is a graph of a 300 spin session based on live recorded spins.  I have a lot more similar graphs and a few that lose, but the losers have been rare so far.



Playing live it took me 1750 spins in 8 sessions to double my 1000 unit BR:

Session 1 365 spins 205 units
Session 2 200 spins 176 units
Session 3 280 spins 109 units
Session 4 215 spins 128 units
Session 5 160 spins 133 units
Session 6 260 Spins 128 units
Session 7 120 Spins 56 units
Session 8 150 Spins 104 units

Total spins 1750 for 1039 units return.

So far I have been pretty lucky, although there have been a few large drawdowns, they mostly seem to occur at the beginning of the session.   For the last week I haven't had time to play, so my BR has not altered.  :)   Most likely this has been beginners luck.