Hi ADulay. Your Bitcoin purchase looks like a great investment.

"...I probably have no reason to sell it and doubt I will ever sell it as my buddies are always telling me how it's going to be worth a real lot of money "in the future"...."

    IMO that logic by early crypto investors is part of the reason BTC has continued escalating. I saw an article a few weeks ago that indicated most (90%) of the early investors from (10-15 yrs. ago) had not sold any, nor bought additional. It also appears some of the whales aren't selling any either. I also read that over 90% of all crypto investors had lost it all or net- . Most early investors in BTC are in the positive with little reason to sell. Similar to AD thoughts above.

Investing in ammo is probably a good way to realize some profits justincase BTC moves south somewhere down the road. I know a couple Bac players that buy ammo/silver bullion as an investment. Im not sure how they profit from the ammo purchases (maybe sell to others at a markup). Maybe use themselves and save because ammo seems to always be increasing in price. I don't really know/haven't asked them.


ADulay in the initial post above:

"... What is the actual PLAN for your crypto "investments"?

Is it merely to make money, as in any gambling endeavor?

Is it to build something for on down the road when retirement looms large?

With your holdings in crypto, can you use it to live on or plan with for future expenditures?

Do you consider it a real investment in the future or merely something to dabble in while stumbling forward in life?  ..."



The few times I have bought Bitcoin(I have never purchased any of the other cryptos), my objective was to buy it/ immediately unload it(100%) into the purchase of Gold/Silver bullion.

My goal was to time it and unload it asap(within days if possible). I was stressed the whole time because of the huge fluctuations. My last investment was when BTC was stuck in a band from 16k--21k. My objective was to make >=7.35% on BTC volatility and buy into this difference between BTC and gold/silver prices. As you know precious metals have extremely high intrinsic value/very low volatility and seldom fluctuate >1% in a day or even a week. I've made between 7.5%--13.5%(Net after fees) everytime I've done this btc-to-gold transaction. Of course, once I utilize my BTC I then have to buy more later on within a range that may research suggests that Im buying into the lower end of this band width. So far I have been spot on with unloading the btc into precious metals in a few days for a net of 7-13% (which is huge when buying precious metals).

However, where I have been wrong, for example, is my last batch of btc was unloaded near 21K. I had bought it just above 17K I believe. My projections after unloading it at that time was that BTC would cycle down to 14K before it would hit 40K. Obviously, it didn't regress to 14k but instead blasted on through 40K with a lot of fluctuation in between, yet it continued upward. I have no intention of buying at current levels and attempting my methodology above.

Re: Precious metals.
Up until a few months ago several of the larger precious metals dealers in USA would accept five cryptos as a form of payment. It seems like it was BTC,Doge,Shib,Eth, and another I don't recall. They often give a 3-4% discount if one pays with eChk,Ach, or wire(but one has a wire fee though). If one uses a Visa it's a fee of 4% or so I believe and any of the above cryptos were the most costly with an additional 1.5--1.75% fee above all other payment methods. They didn't care as they instantly converted to USD and charged an additional fee for the transaction. Obviously eChk or Ach is optimal as no fees and one actually gets a 3-4% discount.

Well, I bought a batch of gold about two weeks ago /when I placed the order with this particular PM company they obviously still accept the typical payment forms. However, they now only accept one crypto (BTC). Plus, now they actually give a 3% discount for btc. They do not accept payment from any other cryptos. I thought this recent policy change was interesting.


Continued Success,

Albalaha,

  Well, I still "own" my 1/10 share of a BitCoin.  The cost basis was $1000 to me.

  Initially purchased as a joke while drinking with good friends, I probably have no reason to sell it and doubt I will ever sell it as my buddies are always telling me how it's going to be worth a real lot of money "in the future".

  Besides, it is fun to tell people I have BitCoin when they ask but it's not something I think about on a day to day basis.

  So for now my portion of the 1 BitCoin (10%) that we own sits in one of their accounts while waiting for "the big one" to hit.

  Not so surprising is the fact that not one of these guys has mentioned selling it to take the profit.

  It's just not that important and I think they're seriously waiting for the 1 million dollar mark.

  And the profit back to each of us, approximately $5000 or so at this time, is not something we desperately need.

  My last ammunition order was $5200 to put things into perspective for us.

  I do enjoy reading about other people's experiences with their BitCoin exploits here.

  AD







 

Here it is from the government.  And I will tell you, it is no game.  The casinos enforce it.  The world of the SAR is very strong and goes into play between $2,000.00 and $3,500.00 if the player is not a regular known ID on file player, etc.

https://www.fincen.gov/sites/default/files/shared/sar_guidance_casino.pdf

I think, I should answer from my side:

What is the actual PLAN for your crypto "investments"?
I prefer to use it as a systematic investment plan wherein I would invest a small amount every month in it which could be about 10% of all my investments.

Is it merely to make money, as in any gambling endeavor?
It is a proven High Yield Income Plan, only pour that much money that does not make you crazy on losing, although chance of losing all in crypto is negligible.

Is it to build something for on down the road when retirement looms large?
As I said, it is a money multiplier and could help with retirement with a dash of luck. Its two decades history tells that.

With your holdings in crypto, can you use it to live on or plan with for future expenditures?
I have kept it for coming ten years and might sell a bit if required.

Do you consider it a real investment in the future or merely something to dabble in while stumbling forward in life?
 I consider it as a side investment, for now. It may become better with time and could change perceptions.   

If you have a substantial amount in crypto, do you sell some to hold back some kind of profit or do you plan on just keeping it until it hits the magical 1 million dollar mark?
Do not put all your eggs in one basket is the guiding principal for me. If I have a big sum in it, I would diversify half of it in lesser volatile, lesser earner sources like index funds.

Do you have a tax strategy for any of this?
In my country India, tax evasion in crypto is technically very difficult these days but people always have ways to hide income and tax thereupon. You just need to look around.

Can you use your crypto holdings as collateral on something in an emergency should the need arise?
I can sell it instantly and can re enter that if comfortable in future.

I see the alure of the BTC game to many people but somehow I just don't see or visualize the outcome of this.   There simply has to be something I'm missing here.
Bitcoin etc are alternative currency for the world and I believe it is here to stay. No govt. can eliminate it completely. It has already been accepted worldwide.

I just moved another $70,000 from an asset that got called into another product that will produce a similar profit moving forward.  I would not even think about moving that money into a BitCoin.
As I said, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Real Estate, Gold, Bonds, Mutual Funds, Stocks, Crypto nothing is guaranteed to earn well all the time and those which can guarantee, they offer abysmal returns. So, Diversify.

Am I truly a Luddite in the 21st Century of money management in real life or am I simply not seeing the big picture in the digital world?
 You are simply an oldschool and nothing bad in being that but closing your eyes with emerging markets and technology is not a good idea.

Now, my query for you:
1) How much of BTC do you actually own as of now?
2) any other altcoin every tried?

If you never did that, just have a taste with a little money that you spend in hosting a frineds' party.

It came over $69k, corrected a bit and still at good enough price today over $67k.


Those considering themselves smarter than Blackrock putting $3 Billions in it should introspect a bit more.
Bitcoin doesn't have any intrinsic value! OK. Does diamond have any? Value for anything is decided by demand and supply forces. Here, I quote the classic case of Dutch Tulip Bulb Market Bubble?
The Dutch tulip bulb market bubble (or tulip mania) was a period in the Dutch Golden Age during which contract prices for some of the tulip bulbs reached extraordinarily high levels and then dramatically collapsed in February 1637; the rarest tulip bulbs traded for as much as six times the average person's annual salary at the height of the market.

Supply of Shiba Inu even after huge burning is in Quadrillions that exceeds even the assets of the universe taken together even if it reaches $1 in value. XRP is capped at 100 Billions hence could reach a value of even $50 in the long run. Bitcoin total supply as of present is a bit over 19 millions and rest could take 100 years to be mined. This clarifies that getting a value of $100k is realistic for a bitcoin.

It is a decentralized finance and hence has no government control and that makes it kind of permanent mode of transfer of value unless anything better comes and takes its place.
             Bitcoin can not keep monopoly over the market hence Ethereum and some other prospective altcoins shall stay too.

Also, if you have a safety deposit box in a bank, and you think that everything in the box is ""safe"........I strongly suggest that you read the 3 or 4 page instructions which the bank gave you when you opened the box.

If you threw them away, I suggest you call your bank and have them mail it to you.

If you read it, you will probably see that if the bank receives instructions from any type of government agency,,,,,IRS......Secret Service .....Homeland Security.....etc etc......they can order the bank to lock your bank first and then the bank must notify you by mail that the box is locked one or two days after the box is locked........so you will not be able to open your box and remove any "interesting" items you may have stored in the box.

The only thing "safe" about a safety deposit bank box is that important documents such as insurance policies, social security cards, birth certificates, last will and testaments etc etc  will be safe in case your house burns down and all your important papers burn with your house.

BTC is already at its all time high now and growing day by day. Those seeing at its volatility has missed the boat. It will see a sharp decline maybe by the end of 2024 but before that prices will go up only. Those stayed invested in btc and ethereum in the last 5 years are the biggest gainers in any form of investment possible.

I don't know your personal hard core betting numbers, just what you write.

But I will tell you my worst shoes, where as I lost by the end of the shoe I would average, that I wagered around 25 times. 

The shoes that I won, I would average, that I wagered around 40 times. 

Bear in mind, I am not satisfied with a one, two or a few unit win by any means.  Likewise, my buy-in is only a small percentage of my bank roll funds and as I have written, is pure risk capital with not much of a stop loss.

What I have found, that suits me best, is attempting in the most aggressive way to get into my M.M.M. stage. And be able to implement my 1/3rd, 1/3rd, 1/3rd strategy, thus allowing my wagering to be strictly governed by my wins and losses effecting only a portion of my win money.

Before thinking to adopt a progressive multilayered betting scheme we should understand some basic statistical tools applied to long term live shoes data.
Differently than black jack, we reached the conclusion that at baccarat we do not need millions of shoes data, few dozens of thousands are more than sufficent to realize the ranges of intervention of our plan.

Modal value at attack #1, singles vs streaks

By applying a 0.75% probability of success (that is looking for a win within a couple of attempts) and discarding a subtantial portion of initial (foremost) and ending hands, the most frequent number of bettable spots per shoe (considered as a win or a loss) is 8.

Since a two-step continuous wager is working and thinking by average values, we reckon to bet around 12 times per shoe (isolated singles and two singles in a row).

Worst situations are whenever we won't win a single two-step hand, that is when the shoe will present ALL single clusters superior than 2.
Knowing the modal value, on average the worst event we'll expect it'll be to get 16 losing bets in a row.
But since the shoe is finite and by applying a "clustering" factor, such scenario could be easily discarded, mostly as distributions wholly negating a more likely 1-2 single steps almost always cannot reach the 8 modal value (stopping well before).

In any instance, shoes NOT presenting at least one winning spot are showing up around 1% of the times. In the almost all cases the number of bettable spots (and disregarding the important clustering effect) is 5 or 6.

On the other end, shoes presenting ALL one-step and two-step single situations account for a nearly 10% of total shoes dealt.

Therefore after 100 shoes dealt and ignoring the vig for simplicity, at such most deviated situations on average we'll expect to win 4 units (1-1.5 progression) or 8 units (1-2 progression) ten times and to lose from 12.5 units (1-1.5 progression) to 18 units (1-2 progression) one time.

In a word and after 100 shoes dealt, most possible deviated outcomes at either side will get a 40 units profit (by adopting a 1-1.5 progression) to 80 units profit (1-2 progression) or a 12.5 units loss (1-1.5 progression) or 18 units loss (1-2 progression).

Then it remains to assess the most likely intermediate situations where one or more positive (most likely) or negative (less likely) event will affect the overall ratios.

Positive situations (that is isolated or two-step singles) will account a nearly 77% probability (expected value = 75%), the remaining 3-step sequences are equally distributed betweeen 3s or superior than 3s steps.

That's where our edge comes from.

Results are always shifted to our favor, it's just a matter of time that things will take a more likely profitable course of action.
It's a slow process capable to get rid either of the negative variance and of the permutations issue, both factors easily manageable by a simple clustering way of considering things.

Next week I'll give you the details about the average clustering streaks distribution.

as.

Let's clarify the auto shuffler and the continuous shuffling machines.

The auto shuffler is used at bac tables as well as other card games that the dealer is not depositing every hand played back into the shuffler.  If the dealer is, then it is a continuous shuffling machine. 

In baccarat, I have never ever seen them used or heard of them being used. 

As far as the auto shuffler being used in bac, they are used with smart self reading shoes as well as without a smart self reading shoe.