KFB, thanks of your very kind words!
And thanks Al for your comment.

Here you are!

Trying to grasp what the shoe is producing is paramount, but knowing the more likely pattern ranges is very important either.

A good shoe is good only after it is displayed on the screen and the "good" adjective is a purely subjective assessment.

On the other end, many pattern distributions per each shoe move around more likely ranges: Those are objective findings that could be worth or not, I guess that those are more important than what people think.

When we play baccarat we shouldn't hope for anything as we should already know what could be more probable to happen or not, that is we're playing probabilities.

Put 48 balls in a urn where 36 balls are red winning balls (+1) and 12 are white losing balls (-3). Then extract all such balls and arrange them in a sequence.
After a very large number of trials, it'll surely happen that the first 12 balls extracted will be  all white balls and of course every other possible combination will happen.
So we should be prepared to set up a strategic plan capable to be ahead for every possible combination, obviously taking care of the relationship about the more likely distributions.

Suppose to increase the number of white losing balls at the same time decreasing proportionally the  number of red balls (total must be 48).
Now after all balls were extracted, catching the red balls spots will be more difficult, especially when after a given number of balls distributed white balls seem to be "too" silent.

Obviously in this example we do not take care of a possible dependency as we'll never know the real R/W balls ratio.

More later

as.

Because.....................From so called gaming mathematicians to gaming experts of all types running tests and samples on baccarat running through hundreds of thousands or millions of hands, every single flat bet or mechanically triggered bet will fail ITLR!  Period.  End of story. 

As well, the people playing the game that are able to extract any kind of cash profits out of it, they do so playing a trivial amount of hands/shoes as compared to those testing with their statistics.  Period.

There are most certainly numerous ways to pull profits from the game and although none of them are guaranteed triggers which most everyone is searching for, they work very well for those people who understand what they are doing as well as the game and their emotions, while employing a rock solid M.M.M.  Period.

Great writing as always Asym. I do not think I have ever seen so many succinct statements in any one post.

*so the idea so loved by mathematicians that each new hand is EV- no matter what is a total completely bighorn.sh.it.

**Hoping to get an endless series of unrandom spots (no matter how long we've waited for them) is an utopy; confiding that an infinite series of "same situations" will stop before reaching the common expected sd values is a sure fkng certainty.

***For sure itlr such 0-5/6 "d" range is constantly shifted toward the left side, meaning there will be dealt a lot more shoes belonging to the 0 or 1 category than belonging to the 4 or 5/6 class.

--"...I'll try to better schematize that within a couple of days...."


I look forward to your further elaboration.

Many thanks,kfb

BTC @ 71,500 today 4824.
I agree Alb we may see <=80K in near future. After it held above low 50s I projected we could potentially see <=85-86k as an apex. After all the halving hype there will be a retreat toward a mild basil near 50K IMO. We could possibly see a retraction >=30%.

There are so few holders of btc at large quantities the price can and will fluctuate with great volatility as the large holders see fit.

*Another concern is even if the small holders hedge their bets with inverse ETFs such as (BITI), btc is traded 24-7 and BITI as well as most markets (In USA) are only open 8am--4pm. So just a few BTC holders can really alter the markets at night or weekend.


Good luck to all bit coiners/remember to take some profits or at least get your cost basis +3% out. Then let it ride if you desire as thou shalt see high volatility in coming month.
Just another investing tip from your Uncle Kung 


Continued Success To All,

The above A/B situations were deeply studied after having measured the sd values of many two opposed "complex" patterns reaching quite different values than expected, so the idea so loved by mathematicians that each new hand is EV- no matter what is a total completely bighorn.sh.it.

The sd value is the watchdog of randomness, thus whenever two opposing events will show lower than expected sd values after large trial samples, well we know that sometimes the game stops to be random (that is unbeatable) as some sequences become unrandom (so beatable).

Hoping to get an endless series of unrandom spots (no matter how long we've waited for them) is an utopy; confiding that an infinite series of "same situations" will stop before reaching the common expected sd values is a sure fkng certainty.

Streaks

Start to consider ALL streaks as belonging to just four categories:

a) doubles

b) triples

c) 4s

d) 5/5+ streaks

Obviously itlr a = b+c+d, b=c+d and finally b+c=d.

Good.

Since we are talking about a 0.75 probability, we might converge two adjacent streak classes fighting against any superior class (for example a+b vs c+d, or b+c vs d).

Say a+b =A or b+c=A.

At those both A events, the common maximum losing factor is d (5/5+ streaks) and we know that in the vast majority of the times d factor will be well limited per any shoe dealt going from a 0 range to a 5 or 6 range.
For sure itlr such 0-5/6 "d" range is constantly shifted toward the left side, meaning there will be dealt a lot more shoes belonging to the 0 or 1 category than belonging to the 4 or 5/6 class.

Such "unlikelihood" to form many long streaks should make more room to inferior streak classes happening clustered, but sometimes long chopping lines intertwined by those long streaks somewhat deny their apparition.
In the sense that a double, a triple or a 4 streak could come out isolated between steady chopping lines and longer streaks.

Actually and after having assessed that such inferior streak classes came out as isolated more than two times in a row, it's time to raise our standard bet as such unlikely shoes cannot stand for long.
I mean the reasons to raise our standard bet after finding such unlikely situation are greater than crossing two mere isolated A events showing up in a row that became three in a row.

In fact the propensity to get inferior streak classes clustered is in direct relationship of the total number of streaks happening per any number of hands dealt, therefore when few streaks of any kind happened so far (meaning many singles had shown up) the clustered inferior streaks factor will lose a lot of its value.

I'll try to better schematize that within a couple of days.

as.

Managing the inevitable harsh losing situations

Any strategy (especially when a progressive plan is adopted) will be susceptible to fail when very unlikely sequences will show up at consecutive shoes.
That's why is so important to play at a machine shuffled same shoe (MSSS).

In fact our long term data suggest that the average shoe's texture is more likely to come out at MSSS than at every other shuffling procedure.

Anyway and assuming A as positive (p=0.75) and B as negative (p=0.25), it's natural to expect very low values of A and huge densities of B.

For example B despite of its low probability to appear could show up consecutively clustered up to 6 or even more times in a row (anyway a very very unlikely event) and we know that we should be interested to bet toward A only after a single B or best two back-to-back B apparitions, then let it go whatever happens.

On the other end, the A-A category (the least possible clustered class) cannot be silent for long, so constantly managing to fight with the A-B opposite event (now forming an A isolated event).
Even here (B)A-B events may be classified by steps: one isolated step, two isolated steps, etc.
Itlr most A isolated situations will distribute by one or two levels, when not let them go.

Summary

AA = a natural mathematically more likely situation, yet belonging to a random world;

AB = same as above

BA = same as above

BB = same as above

ABAA = a natural math more likely situation, now beloging to a kind of very slight unrandom world

ABABAA = providing the use of a proper random walk, that's the situation we're really looking for as the cumulative number of ABABAA patterns will overwhelm the opposite ABABAB events by degrees capable to erase and easily invert the HE. Unrandom world, that is.

BAA and BAB = random world

BABAA = here there's a long term very slight propensity to get this pattern than the opposite BABAB scenario.

BABABAA = again the real edge we're really looking for (when a proper random walk is acting) as BABABAA patterns are way more likely than BABABAB scenarios. Another unrandom world.

The concept gets one of the best proof by arbitrarily putting cutoff values at streaks (for example streaks of 5/5+ being B) vs inferior streaks, as there are no many shoes dealt forming many 5/5+ streaks.
The sole problem is whenever such long streaks will be intertwined by long chopping sequences without no or few inferior streaks, a thing we'll see later.

as.

Among all the cryptos at an ATH in 2021, only BTC touched a next level ATH. Halving is closer and so is $80K level.

Thx 8POR9
Awesome story/thx for posting.

--------------------------------------

Great auto photos from the past. It is obvious why most are no longer around.
*I remember the first time I ever saw a Yugo. Probably late 1980s and they had one on display in a shopping mall. The hot model that was standing near the car was explaining to passerby's what a great car. It seems like this base car was approx. $4900 or so without a radio. That was extra.
The main things I recall about it(besides I had never seen a car without a radio) was the tires were tiny and looked like a spare (doughnut). The bumper was mostly plastic and only about 3" wide.


Thx for photos

Had to snap a picture of this RV.  The Jetson's?.

When I was young, I drove a Ford Pinto up to Montreal, Canada from New York City and then back down to New York City and then drove it cross country from New York City to Los Angeles.....about 4000 miles and slept in the car........and this was the Ford Pinto that exploded when the gas tank blew up if you were hit from behind..................also me and a buddy of mine  drove  from Oxford England across on a ferry to Holland and then drove to Belgium Germany Luxemburg Denmark .....put the car on another ferry and drove up to Stockholm Sweden and then back all the way to Oxford  England......about 2500 miles .......all this in an English 10 year old Anglia car where you could not get car parts or even a spare tire anywhere in Europe .........bought a tent and a small propane stove and  about 30 cans of food to cook on the stove and slept in the tent.....and this was before cell phones, the internet, personal computers etc etc....absolutely no way to contact anyone if the car broke down or something bad happened...............this is what young men do when you are 21 years old and do not have any functioning brain cells.