BTC will go upward and downwards both and you can see a newer all time high too, in 2024 itself or at Max till the mid of 2025.

Quote from: KungFuBac on Yesterday at 02:26:05 AMThx AsymBacGuy. Good thread.

In Post #1033 above:
"...Think about sections containing 6, 7 or more consecutive streaks without no singles and the exact opposite scenario.
Those are natural "strong" deviations that must be balanced along the way, otherwise the game would be easily beatable.

Anyway such balancement most of the time doesn't act symmetrically as the transitory deficit will be overcome by low or moderate changes of direction, privileging opposite short patterns than long patterns...."

For me this "MODERATE CHANGE" being detected early on is the key to seeing it just a split second sooner. This is one of many reasons I prefer to play a shoe from the burn onward/ not after the shoe has started.
Its no different then if someone tells you their blood pressure is 120/80 or their pulse is 72. The values become more important once we learn this persons historical average, and how much it has changed, and in which direction.
Its all about the change.




Continued Success,

Hi KFB and thanks!

I can't agree more on that...

as.

Multiple triggers vs single trigger

If we are able to stay put (no betting) for a lot of hands, a single trigger can get us an interesting statistical advantage as it's just a matter of time (number of shoes dealt) that the asymmetrical model will produce the clustered more likely distributions we're expecting for.
Technically itlr the number of clustered events will be equal to the isolated events, but we know that there's a constant slight force orienting the results towards short "less likely" sequences than long "less likely" sequences.

Nevertheless, any more likely clustered event of any lenght must come out clustered-clustered than clustered-isolated, then more clustered-clustered-clustered than clustered-clustered-isolated and so on.
On the other end we've seen that some random walks applied to less likely events (0.25 probability) are more probable to stop than expected after two clustered situations, so enticing the probability to get a 0.75 probability event.

Anyway if a 0.25 probability must catch up a 0.75 probability, it means that rarer situations sooner or later must involve a strong clustered (albeit unlikely) factor capable to erase most part of 0.75 clusters.

But as already sayed here, even though a 0.25 probability could show up consecutively even 6 times in a row (L=18 units), the 0.75 proportional counterpart is entitled to come out by way superior consecutive sequences up to 31 or even 35 (when proper random walks are applied).

So the cumulative losses vs cumulative wins (vig considered) will be constantly shifted towards the winning side.

Anyway those are just kind of positive or negative "jackpots" needing a lot of time (and patience) to be exploited, some people making a living at this game know that multiple triggers considered will accelerate the bet selection process.

Say there are four main triggers to simultaneously look for (1- singles considered by one/two lenght, 2- streaks lenght considered by 2/3 or 3/4 classes, 3- consecutive single or consecutive streak scenario happening at either side, 4- betting two times the same side whether the first was a losing bet.

Even if the house knows our plan and willing to voluntarily arrange cards to make us to lose (obviously a thing than never happens at serious premises) we'll get:

1- Singles distribution are affected by the streaks density, poor streaky shoes will make more probable long chopping sequences; since we do not want other than a clustered (or clustered/clustered) one/two single successions, in this instance we won't find ourselves in the position to make many bets.

2- More is streaky the actual shoe and greater will be the probability to get 2/3 or 3/4 streak classes clustered as the respectively 4/5 streaks enemy or 5 streaks enemy will be well defined in their average apparition.

3- This factor is strictly dependent on the random walk utilized, that is it raises the probability to get either relatively longer single or streaky sequences than expected.

4- Betting two times the same side is particularly powerful when the first (losing) bet was made at Banker side and not involving the singles one/two distribution. This is the only exception bypassing random walks suggestions.
Notice that after one/two chopping sequences were surpassed, the most likely streak happening is coming out at B side. Anyway by betting the same side two times in a row at moderate/long chopping sequences (and at many other successions), the probability to win within a couple of attempts is 100%.

See you soon

as.

Thx albalaha for sharing your research, opinion, and all the BD details in post #6 above.

Re: blackdag et al speculative cryptos.

I know very little about this one or any of them. However, its my opinion one should treat them like our gambling stake. I think many times the conservative bettor that only goes for a few-units Win would do better if they took part (7--13% or so) and parlayed it four times(meaning five hits four compounds), and bring it all down (The KungfuCompound&DownKFBgoldMillionaireMethod).
Same thoughts for some of these penny cryptos or stocks. Take about 7.5%--13% of ones overall investment portfolio and look for a Black Swan event. Divide that 7--13% into seven equal allotments on seven different investments and go for the homerun. As in life we will often not get the homer but by swinging for the fences may still hit a triple or double(and will always have a very slight probability for hitting the Grand Slam).


Good luck to all investors,

BTC @ 62,700 today 42624.

As mentioned in previous posts I do not currently have any BTC/ have been betting that BTC will drop from its high of ~~73K by purchasing BITI(Proshares Short BTC).

I was able to unravel the 2nd of 5 tiers from my short position on BTC (BITI) last Wednesday (a week ago). Reminder: The BITI moves in the opposite direction of BTC futures.

My sell was for 20% of my stake at a >=16.6% profit. I still have 3 of 5 tiers remaining and though the next tier will potentially hit today or Monday the remaining two tiers are still a little underwater as I will need BTC to drop below 60K and then toward the 54k-56 range. If this 3rd tier does indeed hit Im golden/ will have several options for how to play the remaining two positions. Possibly an arbitrage situation going forward. Though Im not an advocate for hedging(Investing or gambling).


The volatility of BTC makes it difficult to project(at least for me). So I also have two additional tier Buys in place to purchase more BITI. If BTC spikes and hits the >=73K, and then 84Kish targets. In other words I have the squeeze on BTC(i.e. My KUNGFU Grip     ) At least if BTC doesn't skyrocket to >=90K in the near future. Then BTC would have me in a choke hold or at least force me into waiting for a few weeks to months,...etc.

If BTC were to hit 90K before it drops  on down to 59K I would just wait it out. As I would likely be required to just hold my last two tiers and hope for a huge decrease in BTC sometime in the future. I started placing these tiers several weeks ago so Im optimistic by bets will come to fruition within the next few days to weeks.



Good luck to all crypto investors

Will post tomorrow, been swamped with so many endeavors.  Promise they are super cool boards!

Great pics. I look forward to the tote board pics and all the details.



Continued Success,

Hi 8OR9
Good read. I had not heard of this one. I suspect we will eventually see more/more of these (FTX) type scenarios exposed. The media (in the U.S. ) seems to only give these stories a brief mention.


I saw this story a few days ago:

"...SLERF developer wipes out 50% of token supply
SLERF's developer announced on Monday that he accidentally burnt nearly 50% of the token's supply, losing $10 million in funds belonging to presale participants..."

 
What do you tell your investors (i.e., presale participants): "Whoops my bad"

It will be interesting to see if any consequences(restitution/ prison time) will be doled out eventually.



Continued Success,

Thx AsymBacGuy. Good thread.

In Post #1033 above:
"...Think about sections containing 6, 7 or more consecutive streaks without no singles and the exact opposite scenario.
Those are natural "strong" deviations that must be balanced along the way, otherwise the game would be easily beatable.

Anyway such balancement most of the time doesn't act symmetrically as the transitory deficit will be overcome by low or moderate changes of direction, privileging opposite short patterns than long patterns...."

For me this "MODERATE CHANGE" being detected early on is the key to seeing it just a split second sooner. This is one of many reasons I prefer to play a shoe from the burn onward/ not after the shoe has started.
Its no different then if someone tells you their blood pressure is 120/80 or their pulse is 72. The values become more important once we learn this persons historical average, and how much it has changed, and in which direction.
Its all about the change.




Continued Success,

Quote from: ADulay on April 12, 2024, 05:09:16 PMSo, if I read this correctly, if I purchase $1000 of something called "BlockDag" now, when it actually launches I'll have $5,000,000.

Swell.  Where do I sign up?

AD

 Well, you misread it Captain.
           Had you invested $1,000 in its presale in the first batch while the rate was $0.001 and you would have got it at $0.05 as the listing price, as claimed by the website, you could have gained 50x and your investment could have been worth $50k, in that case. Now, it is at $0.006 so you will earn 6x lesser than the purchasers of the first batch.
                  You might never have seen anything alike, I believe but it happened numerous times with cryptos. The pre sale discounts and its hype made much more money than this, in the past. Any good presale could get your money at 3x to 10x easily. 50x is not ordinary but nothing out of world if we consider the historical events of such presales.