Taking Statistical Calculated Risk With Sports Betting Service

I have a gambling bankroll for Casino games with amounts at different online casinos.
Now I pull out 500 Euro to put into Sports Betting.

I pay 19 Euro for one Tipster with 112% ROI each month.
Now I been active for five days and are plus 140 Euro.
Placing 10 Euro bets flat betting and risking 2% of the bankroll.
That is 50 Units.

Now Koetsch simulated 50/50 without edge for 60.000 placed bets.
He simulated 100 placed bets sessions.

The worst drawdown during 600 x 100 placed bets sessions was minus 34 units.
And the average loss during 100 placed bets session was minus 8 units.

That means I have a pretty good chance to make 1000 Euro risking 2% of the bankroll ( 50 Units).
So when I reach 750 Euro I will start flat betting 15 Euro until I reach my goal.

After that I not sure what to do - I have three options.

1) I can bet the recommendation 1% of bankroll with 1000 Euro flat betting 10 Euro.
2) I can continue risking 2% of bankroll and bet 20 Euro flat betting.
3) I can regress and play with the sportsbooks own money without risking my own.

Option two feel tempting to reach maybe 2000 Euro
Option three feel like a stable small income with no risks involved, where you can boost a % to make the bankroll slowly grow and pull out money each year as return on investment.
Option one feels like a long term strategy where you slowly grow your bankroll with small risk.

Cheers Patrik

Thanks, Lugi for posing this, I have the book :-)

Cheers

+1 and reversal +0 works most of the times, but sooner or later the sequence comes and gives you -8 or any value you set as stop loss.
You might win +13 and get -8 and then again +10 and again -8 and sooner or later you will find your self at even plus-minus the house edge.

The test has already been done with 1.7 house edge for 60.000 trails flat betting.
I can only see one way around this dilemma and achieve one-year gambling with no loss or even more, but then is not flat betting anymore.
My conclusion is that you can use a level accumulation strategy.

Cheers

Assume you not betting and just want to see the true bias of shoe.

Then singles are by them self as outcomes.
Series of two are by them self as outcomes.
And series of three and higher are treated as the same outcome.

Then you get the principal of 1/3

Now assume you would split each sequence into blocks of two events.

For example you see B P B PPPP BBBBB P B PPP then this is a sequence with two events/outcomes - singles and series of three and higher.
Now look at this sequence BB PP B P BB P B P B P B is a sequence with singles and series of two.
The third sequence is series of two and series of three and higher BB PPP BB PPPPPP BB PP BB PPPPPP BBB PP.

Now if a sequence not include two events/outcomes for three times in a row - a true small bias sequence you will have a triplet - no present bias.

Triplet look like this.

One single and serie of two and one serie of three or higher.
The triplets can come in any combination, one of each.

This means you can compare sequence with two otucomes hitting three times or more creating a true bias or you get a triplet.

Cheers

Can you see the naturally common bias in every shoe where two events out of three dominant more than triplets?
For example, a triple would be one single one series of two and one series of three or higher.

The question is how to explore the bias with minimum attempts.
Look at this sample where all sequences have a bias except two triplets.

1
2
1 W
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
1

2
2
1
1 W
1
2

1
1
2
1 L
  W
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1 W
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
2

1
2 L
1 W
1
2
1
2
2
1
2
1
1
2
1
1
2

1
1
1
1
1
2
2 W
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
1

2
1
1 L
1
2
1 W
2
2
2
1

2
2
1
2 L
2 L
  W
1
1
1
2
2 W
2
1

2
2
1
1 W
1
2

1
2
1 W
1
1
2
1

2
2
1
1 W
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
1

2
1
1 L
2
1 W
2
2

1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2 W
1
1
1
2
2

1
2
1 W
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2

1
1
2
2 W
1
1
1
2
2
2
2

1
2
1 W
2
1
2
2
2

1
1
2
2 W
1
1
2
2
2
2

1
2
2 L
2
1
1 L
   L

2
2
1
2 L
1 W
1
2
1
2

1
1
1
1
2
2 W
2
2
2
2
2
1
2

1
1
2
2 W
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
2
2
1
2
1

2
2
2
1
1 W
1
2
1
2
1
2
1

2
2
1
2 L
2 L
1 W
1
2
2
1
2
1
2
2
1
2

1
1
1
1
2
2 W
1
1

2
1
1 L
1
2
2 L
   L
1
1
1
1
1
1

R.D. Ellison Selection European Wheel

Six splits for each dozen selection on the table layout
Covering 6 numbers on each side using Bi-Modal spread with a total of 12 numbers.

See attachment:

What is the price and what is your PayPal address?

Cheers

 Thanks, I could see with the description of the book, first cover, include 3Q Angle system.
I understand that R.D. Ellison using American wheel and the spread using the chip placement create two opposite spreads on the wheel layout.

Is very difficult to achieve the same spread on the wheel layout using the same Line/Corner bets on Europen wheel.
Table/Wheel numbers are different and you don't get same even spread.

Look at the internet an no one seems to come up with a solution for that.
Find some nice Bi-Modal charts from Pierre Basieux, so we can play the same even spread on the wheel layout, but the chip placement is different on the table layout.

Someone can add and reduce chips from the alternatives I attach to get an even spread.
Thanks and credits to Pierre Basieux RIP

I buy the book Gamble To Win but can not find the 3Q Angle system.
My book's name is GAMBLE TO WIN - A COMPLETE GUIDE FOR THE SERIOS PLAYER

I notice there is two books with the same cover but the other books name is only GAMBLE TO WIN
Can some one sell this book to me that include the 3Q Angle system or show me the right book.

I attach the two different covers of the book.

I agree and that is exactly the point I was trying to make.
Maybe my expression was unclear.

No matter if you are or not a system junkie, I think paid membership is the way to proceed.

Cheers

I change my mind about free access.
That is a problem Victor, then everyone can pick any junk and post it to get four months free access, not good at all.
There has to be a way around that.

The idea is to get minds that think alike, system junkies to develop, improve and tweak and discover new ways to tackle roulette.
Like getting some kind of family atmosphere.

But if everyone starts to contribute junk systems to get free access to avoid paying the fee you will get another junk forum.
Maybe you should skip the idea of offering four months of free access.

Cheers

I will also reveal a method to get 4-month access - to get a feel and see how things unfold with the new forum.
Hope it can be like the old days when Lanky was around.

Cheers

What do I get for 100 Euro a year, what is the expectation.
I can be considered to become a member and think the price is right for the correct information and material.

For example, if you contribute with LW-Registry methodology and other solutions and methods like the old days Lanky was around.
Then I would be considering getting something in return for my investment.

I would not like to have a bunch of inexperienced members sharing ideas and pay 100 Euro a year for that kind of material and information.
My expectation would be that more experienced members contribute and share information, that way I would get some kind of return on investment.

Let me make one comparison, I can pay 100 Euro and get professional sports betting tips for six months into my mobile phone from one tipster with an edge.
That means I will get a return of investment during that half year betting from a range between 100 up to 400 Euro.

Victor, I take this matter very seriously.
I don't join a club where there is no substance of quality.

I elaborate on this to get some feedback on how you reckon you will run that forum.
Paying 100 Euro to get a place with no (no sayers) go keep a smooth discussion will not cut it as I only need to ignore members who not walk the same path as me.

Will make one more comparison, one baccarat forum take 50 Euro a month for membership.
It would be fine if you got something else then old methods that have been known for several years.
And the discussion just circles around flat betting with no known solutions then your own homework based upon others guesswork and hints.
Wast of my time and money when I can get several professional tipsters working for me and my money offering an edge and true return on investment, flat betting.
For half the price on a yearly basis.

Do you get my point?

If we can't learn to gamble and earn money in various ways, then I would not pay for any kind of service that offers less.
Actually, I expect you to open up like in the old days and start sharing again if you don't want this idea to vanish like some other project you had.

How would you interact with other more experienced members to share and keep discussions alive at your forum that requires a payment for membership?

Cheers

I will test another selection process and see if I can get similar results.
Wait for 50 spins/trials and pick one sleeping number with no hits.
Target the target number for the next 100 spins/trails.

Random parameter.
Pick Low or High and alternate after each new session with a new fresh number.

Maybe just pick one number from the beginning.

Cheers

I will elaborate on the selection process - this part I consider as a clever solution when it comes to parachute target number.

a) I wait for 50 spins/trials and look at Low and High numbers that hit twice.
b) Then I select one side and randomly pick a number that hit twice within 50 spins/trails

Comment: This way I pick a random number each time, not the same number, if I pick Low the first session i pick High the next session and when the third session gets back to Low I don't choose the same number as in the past.

c) I play until a win once and quit.

Comment: I need to lose the parachute and the single number target number at the same time, they have to correlate and match. And those involve random parameters above.

Cheers